I wish the list would also count a per book basis.
Otoh I'm glad that an OGL game is doing better than a non-OGL one. As long as 5e stays healthy I'm happy to see Pathfinder succeed. 5e is my favorite at the table, PF is my favorite in terms of license.
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If D&D wins this period it won't be a good sign for Paizo and the Pathfinder RPG. Not at their current numbers and amount of content.I love all of these dire predictions for Paizo if they don't automatically trounce 5E. You are right in that it will probably be a quiet year for them, but that doesn't mean that they are automatically out of the game; they have had a lot of very active years lately and quiet years happen from time to time. As long as they stay in the top 3 during this lull, they are still going to be a force to be reckoned with for some time.
The catch is Paizo has been expanding a LOT in the past five years, really increasing their production. Monthly Player Companions, five hardcovers a year, and more. I've heard comparisons to TSR in it's peak. Having done the numbers myself, Paizo is comparable in terms of RPG books, even if you include the Realms and campaign settings (it does fall behind when you consider the magazines though).
That amount of product is fine when you're the only game in town or are a growing game. But it gets harder when you have competition. Let alone as a mature game, that is finding it harder and harder to produce content. Pathfinder's at the point where continuing as is would be tricky at the best of times, let alone with strong competition.I just don't see Pathfinder being sustainable. Not with the content already available. Even if 5e tanks PF might drop in sales as fans reach saturation. We're at the point when a "Pathfinder Revised" is starting to seem appealing, but that's a super risky gamble at this moment.
Paizo might need to cut back their RPG department or segue into other products. They could do good business selling 3rd Party Golarion products for 5e, such as monster books and accessories. Conversion PDFs for their APs might also sell well. I think they're well on the way to being "the Golarion company" that also happens to sell an RPG.
And frankly, I'll believe all of your predictions on all the 5E product past this spring (and even some of the spring predictions) when I see it actually happen. The core books did better than expected, but one (or two at most) option books and a handful of adventures aren't going to change the industry.
The core books did fantastic. Better than 3e or 4e.
D&D also got a lot of media attention that should prolong sales for a time. And it has the name recognition among non-gamers (and wannabe gamers) that Pathfinder lacks. That's going to help keep it in the public eye and provide regular sales.Also, a lot of people are going to try 5E, and decide it's not for them, and go back to whatever system they were using before, which in a large number of cases will be Pathfinder.
Maybe. Maybe not.
I love Paizo as a company more than WotC. I want to support them. But after fifteen years I'm tired of 3x. I'm so ready for 5e.
I've not dropped Pathfinder yet. I've still got some PFS in me, and I'm currently running Skull & Shackles. Even after I go 5e, I might try and convert some APs after that.
I might get a book or two just for reading or use in the next year. I imagine a lot of fans will buy a mix of PF and 5e for the next few months. But once the current campaign ends my days of running PF straight are over. I'd consider some short one-shots or mini campaigns, but for side games I'd much rather try FATE or other non-fantasy games. Something different.
5E, while it had a successful launch, and will continue to do well, is not the industry changer that will put WotC back on top that many claim it to be. It is solid, but it has weaknesses and holes and a lot of competition.
4e cost D&D a lot of fans. Far more than jumped ship to Pathfinder. Even if everyone who jumped ship from 4e to PF in 2009-11 stuck with PF but everyone who just left comes back that's enough to claim the top spot. Plus all the lapsed fans prior to 4th Edition. 5e is an edition with a lot of nostalgia appeal.
Kickstarter and side RPGs are likely claiming some of the audience.
But that side competition that might erode away at D&D (the Strange/Numenera, 13th Age, FATE, and Star Wars) also chip away at Pathfinder's sales.
Too much stuff to directly quote
You have valid points, and Paizo is definitely going to have to work hard to maintain what they have, but WotC really isn't in that much better of a position. When all is said and done, when looking at where both companies and the rest of the industry stand today, WotC does not have an inherent advantage.
WotC has the brand, the history, and a solid boost from the core books, but they also have a lot of burned bridges and bad memories from 4E, and they have not yet shown that they have a release schedule or business plan that will genuinely support the new edition. They are still relying largely on what they want to brand to become rather than what it is now, making it that much less likely that they will ever actually pull off their grandiose dreams. They also have zero understanding of the new digital world that a lot of people are increasingly living in, which will hurt them in the long run. In short, they have a lot of catching up to do just to get back to where they were at the end of 3.5, when they had already started on their downward slide.
Paizo, while it lacks history, has very strong and dedicated leadership and a clear plan of development. They may not have the cross marketing yet, but they are already laying the groundwork to get it, and get in a way that strengthens the core products at the same time. They have enough different product lines that even if the rules line plateaus for a while as they build a bridge to an updated version of Pathfinder, they still have plenty of uncontested income. No one can compete with the APs, and it's the APs that ultimately drive most of their sales throughout all the product lines, not the rule books. Even if WotC manages to get some decent adventures out there, Paizo has a faithful following from their days of running the magazine that will be hesitant to jump over to WotC without a lot more proof that WotC has truly changed its ways for the better. Paizo also has a far better grasp on electronic support and cultivating the wider community, making it hard for WotC to automatically poach the real movers and shakers away from the Paizo fold. For them, 5E is mostly just another challenge, not the ultimate test of survival you make it out to be.
The rpg industry as whole is much stronger now as well, and with their greater understanding of electronic media, which allows them to bypass many of the more expensive aspects of publishing that WotC had a major advantage in before, and a greater flexibility to quickly put out niche material, all of the indy publishers combined pose a real challenge to WotC, both in the content they put out on their own and the very real investment that many of them have in Pathfinder and working with Paizo.
In the end, no one has a real edge in the upcoming year or two. Everyone has significant strengths and everyone has significant weaknesses. Anyone thinking that the nostalgia factor or the promise of a future movie is going to help WotC in their very real current challenges is going to be severely disappointed. WotC is going to have to fight just as hard as everyone else to find sustained success.
Chief Technical Officer
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The catch is Paizo has been expanding a LOT in the past five years, really increasing their production. Monthly Player Companions, five hardcovers a year, and more. I've heard comparisons to TSR in it's peak. Having done the numbers myself, Paizo is comparable in terms of RPG books, even if you include the Realms and campaign settings (it does fall behind when you consider the magazines though).
We've just learned from our German translation partners that there are now more Pathfinder products in German than there have ever been D&D products—ever, regardless of edition. And while our French translation partners haven't actually counted, they believe the same is probably true for their language.
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The catch is Paizo has been expanding a LOT in the past five years, really increasing their production. Monthly Player Companions, five hardcovers a year, and more. I've heard comparisons to TSR in it's peak. Having done the numbers myself, Paizo is comparable in terms of RPG books, even if you include the Realms and campaign settings (it does fall behind when you consider the magazines though).We've just learned from our German translation partners that there are now more Pathfinder products in German than there have ever been D&D products—ever, regardless of edition. And while our French translation partners haven't actually counted, they believe the same is probably true for their language.
While I sometimes have issues with the underlying 3.5e mechanics, Paizo just make a darn beautiful product and given the level of staff interaction with the community, I'm not surprised at all.
Paizo being the new(ish) kid on the block has had to do the hard yards to prove themselves. I think WotC at times has relied on past, read as TSR, glories to sell their product.
I do think that 5e shows a new willingness of WotC to re-connect with the people who buy/play the game. But in this WotC are playing catch up, Paizo are the experienced masters at creating and maintaining a lively community.
Hats off to both companies, I like and play both games whenever I get the chance.
S.
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The catch is Paizo has been expanding a LOT in the past five years, really increasing their production. Monthly Player Companions, five hardcovers a year, and more. I've heard comparisons to TSR in it's peak. Having done the numbers myself, Paizo is comparable in terms of RPG books, even if you include the Realms and campaign settings (it does fall behind when you consider the magazines though).
That amount of product is fine when you're the only game in town or are a growing game. But it gets harder when you have competition. Let alone as a mature game, that is finding it harder and harder to produce content. Pathfinder's at the point where continuing as is would be tricky at the best of times, let alone with strong competition.I just don't see Pathfinder being sustainable. Not with the content already available. Even if 5e tanks PF might drop in sales as fans reach saturation. We're at the point when a "Pathfinder Revised" is starting to seem appealing, but that's a super risky gamble at this moment.
Paizo might need to cut back their RPG department or segue into other products. They could do good business selling 3rd Party Golarion products for 5e, such as monster books and accessories. Conversion PDFs for their APs might also sell well. I think they're well on the way to being "the Golarion company" that also happens to sell an RPG.
I think The Paizo big wigs have stated that the core rules are still selling strongly (I think its been said that the core rulebook has sold more copies every year than the year before, or something like that). I think there are still legs left on the system, although I personally would prefer the release schedule to slow down a bit (I just can't even remotely keep up anymore)
While a 2nd edition might be ever more closer, I don't foresee them ever going back to producing 3rd party content for WoTC. Such a move would probably require a huge downsizing that would purge most of the staff. And I am still not sure whether 5E is going to necessitate such a change.
I am glad 5E exists, but I rather would have both brands going strong, than one extinguishing the other. Personally I am glad that both systems fill different needs and really don't compete.
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The catch is Paizo has been expanding a LOT in the past five years, really increasing their production. Monthly Player Companions, five hardcovers a year, and more. I've heard comparisons to TSR in it's peak. Having done the numbers myself, Paizo is comparable in terms of RPG books, even if you include the Realms and campaign settings (it does fall behind when you consider the magazines though).We've just learned from our German translation partners that there are now more Pathfinder products in German than there have ever been D&D products—ever, regardless of edition. And while our French translation partners haven't actually counted, they believe the same is probably true for their language.
Congratulations on all your successes. Smart people, producing high quality work deserve to be rewarded. Like the last two posters, I hope 5E does well for WotC and I hope Paizo continue to do well.
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Too much stuff to directly quoteYou have valid points, and Paizo is definitely going to have to work hard to maintain what they have, but WotC really isn't in that much better of a position. When all is said and done, when looking at where both companies and the rest of the industry stand today, WotC does not have an inherent advantage.
Hence why the third ICv2 ranking will be telling.
If Paizo regains its top spot Pathfinder the RPG is likely safe for some time, as people are still buying the books, especially the smaller releases.If Pathfinder remains at #2 then even with no real releases D&D is maintaining on the strength of its core books and/or Pathfinder's support is slipping.
It sounds negative but I don't mean it to be. Paizo has weathered worse. Only this time they've had far more warning to consider alternatives, has more resources to cushion the company if things do go poorly for PF, and has other sources of revenue.
I'm confident they'll retain a enviable position in the gaming industry.
WotC has the brand, the history, and a solid boost from the core books, but they also have a lot of burned bridges and bad memories from 4E, and they have not yet shown that they have a release schedule or business plan that will genuinely support the new edition. They are still relying largely on what they want to brand to become rather than what it is now, making it that much less likely that they will ever actually pull off their grandiose dreams. They also have zero understanding of the new digital world that a lot of people are increasingly living in, which will hurt them in the long run. In short, they have a lot of catching up to do just to get back to where they were at the end of 3.5, when they had already started on their downward slide.
This is true.
WotC is in the process of rebuilding trust. Or would be if their marketing department knew how to grow the brand and the team could interact with the community. I have a lot of faith and trust in the D&D team at WotC, but nothing but disdain for the multiple levels of bureaucracy and managers above them.
It's not that the D&D team doesn't understand the digital world. I bet they would love PDFs and related things. But the people in charge can't understand that.
The thing to remember is that WotC is first and foremost the Magic the Gathering company. Magic pulls in so much money it's making the entire games division of Hasbro seem good. It regularly makes an order of magnitude more money that D&D did at its peak. 200+ people work at WotC and less than 20 work on D&D. 90% of the company is very literally concerned with everything but D&D.
So when the CEO and his upper managers are told about PDFs they view it through the lense of MtG. Because that's what 90% of their job and time entails and learning the nuances of D&D is very practically a waste of time, money, and resources.
Magic makes its money on people buying lots of decks to get a few rare cards. If official PDFs were released that had all the cards and counted as "owning the product" from a tournament standpoint it would be flushing money down the toilet. Especially since telling the difference between a pirated version and official PDF at a glance is hard.
It's no wonder getting them to sign off on PDFs is tricky.
Hence why the third ICv2 ranking will be telling.
I see where you are coming from, but I don't think a single ranking is going to make much difference as long as they never fall below number 3. No single sales period is going to determine anybody's success or failure. The average of the next 3 or 4 after this spring one is going to be a far more accurate measure of sustainability.
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This is D&D 5e:
https://www.xkcd.com/927/
It's my favorite edition and I love playing it but that comic describes the current situation.
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Hence why the third ICv2 ranking will be telling.I see where you are coming from, but I don't think a single ranking is going to make much difference as long as they never fall below number 3. No single sales period is going to determine anybody's success or failure. The average of the next 3 or 4 after this spring one is going to be a far more accurate measure of sustainability.
True, but it worked in 2010 when Paizo began its ascent.
What I'm amused by is all the people who dismissed the Amazon rankings and ICv2 chart when Paizo was winning pointing D&D's position now.
Hence why the third ICv2 ranking will be telling.I see where you are coming from, but I don't think a single ranking is going to make much difference as long as they never fall below number 3. No single sales period is going to determine anybody's success or failure. The average of the next 3 or 4 after this spring one is going to be a far more accurate measure of sustainability.True, but it worked in 2010 when Paizo began its ascent.
What I'm amused by is all the people who dismissed the Amazon rankings and ICv2 chart when Paizo was winning pointing D&D's position now.
That's true enough, though personally, I've always found the overall trends of aggregate scores more important than any single one, so my position really hasn't changed much except that recent history and current product favor Paizo over WotC, whereas when Paizo was just starting Pathfinder, I would have said otherwise. The big question is whether WotC can create their own momentum with little or no help from anyone else at the start the same way Paizo did. They couldn't with 4E, so it will be interesting to see how things develop.
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I'm not sure I follow the logic around why the third place matters, the ratings are usually without comment to dollars spent, it is never clear if it was a close tie for first and a distant third, or a more even spacing, nor does it really speak to overall consumer spend. It isn't a zero sum game, just because a consumer spends $1 on a Hasbro product, it doesn't mean they didn't spend a different $1 on a Paizo product. For some consumers they have a limited budget, but others like myself bought both Paizo and Hasbro products this quarter. I bought the products from both lines that interested me. Now, not all consumers have this level of disposable income, but many of the older gamers who have played many generations of D&D do, and they may pick up the core rules for any number of reasons, nostalgia, curiosity, or seeing what they can apply to their own games (never mind actual intent to play).
Like others have said, a raising tide raises all boats, if Hasbro brings back, or brings new gamers to the market that is good for all games. Paizo is also well positioned with its miniature and gaming accessories lines to be system agnostic.
On a tangent, can Wizkids show up on the RPG list because their D&D/Pathfinder Battles lines are for an RPG? In which case, I think Wizkids will be a contender for 3rd place easy.
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If D&D had ever been anything but a second-string game in the fantasy RPG market in Germany that would be rather more impressive. Though it's a good time to be competing with a game where the product schedule is low due to the next edition being developed.The catch is Paizo has been expanding a LOT in the past five years, really increasing their production. Monthly Player Companions, five hardcovers a year, and more. I've heard comparisons to TSR in it's peak. Having done the numbers myself, Paizo is comparable in terms of RPG books, even if you include the Realms and campaign settings (it does fall behind when you consider the magazines though).We've just learned from our German translation partners that there are now more Pathfinder products in German than there have ever been D&D products—ever, regardless of edition. And while our French translation partners haven't actually counted, they believe the same is probably true for their language.
I'm curious, given your comment on D&D, are RPGs in general popular in Germany and if so which ones? I tend to think of Euro board games when I think of Germany, and this whole line of commentary is interesting.
I'm not sure I follow the logic around why the third place matters, the ratings are usually without comment to dollars spent, it is never clear if it was a close tie for first and a distant third, or a more even spacing, nor does it really speak to overall consumer spend. It isn't a zero sum game, just because a consumer spends $1 on a Hasbro product, it doesn't mean they didn't spend a different $1 on a Paizo product. For some consumers they have a limited budget, but others like myself bought both Paizo and Hasbro products this quarter. I bought the products from both lines that interested me. Now, not all consumers have this level of disposable income, but many of the older gamers who have played many generations of D&D do, and they may pick up the core rules for any number of reasons, nostalgia, curiosity, or seeing what they can apply to their own games (never mind actual intent to play).
Like others have said, a raising tide raises all boats, if Hasbro brings back, or brings new gamers to the market that is good for all games. Paizo is also well positioned with its miniature and gaming accessories lines to be system agnostic.
On a tangent, can Wizkids show up on the RPG list because their D&D/Pathfinder Battles lines are for an RPG? In which case, I think Wizkids will be a contender for 3rd place easy.
Consistently dropping below 3rd would be problematic since Paizo only has one consistent major competitor. 3rd gives room for the occasional bad period to leave a space for an indy publisher to sneak in with a particularly strong product every once in a while while showing that Paizo still has enough overall income to pay the bills. Consistently dropping below that would likely create difficulties that could start to impact future plans. That's why I drew that line where I did. As time goes on, that line could move, but for now, it seems like the most reasonable delineation.
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That's true enough, though personally, I've always found the overall trends of aggregate scores more important than any single one, so my position really hasn't changed much except that recent history and current product favor Paizo over WotC, whereas when Paizo was just starting Pathfinder, I would have said otherwise.
It will absolutely be too soon to call things after the next three rankings. But it will be an important indicator: a series of 4 months where Paizo has new product and WotC does not.
The big question is whether WotC can create their own momentum with little or no help from anyone else at the start the same way Paizo did. They couldn't with 4E, so it will be interesting to see how things develop.
I think WotC is taking a hand's off approach and letting word of mouth spread. Right now they don't need to do anything as 5e is news. People are excited and that excitement is infectious. The best way to get people into the game is to encourage the fans to spread their love and attract new players.
There's a change in 3-4 months when something needs to draw more attention to the game. The initial buzz has died down and D&D needs to be pushed back into the zeitgeist. But that's tricky. I don't think any RPG has really managed to find a good way of continuing to be a presence.I do have my doubts, as the D&D team's marketing department is pretty lackluster. Plus their budget is likely peanuts. Really, the entire WotC marketing team is pretty weak, especially given the money they pull in. Unless you go looking for MtG news and hype you'll never find it.
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I think D&D/PF players were about ready for a change. It's a good time for a new RPG.
I don't think anyone was ready for 3e to die when it did. I played the crap out of 3e at the end, mostly in Living Greyhawk. So I got a face-full of Organized Play power creep, DM vs player play, and the creaky parts of the system. I was tired and willing to try a new game, but 4e was not it. Looking back through emails written at the time, I was tentatively excited for 4e until I got my hands on the books. I know it's pure ego to assume my opinions are representative of gamers as a whole, but I can't help but feel lots of other gamers were tired of the 3e-isms but found 4e and unsatisfying alternative.
Now, four years and three campaigns after switching to PF (the Dragonlance Chronicles/WotL adventure path, a Ravenloft homebrew campaign, and Rise of the Runelords) plus some PFS the system is really being show its age to me. It was fine as the least offensive system, where its problems and flaws were less egregious or more manageable than those of competitor's systems. But now there is an alternative, Pathfinder seems less attractive. And after the extra few years the small problems are really beginning to irk.
Now, very little of this is the fault of Paizo beyond their decision to make the game backwards compatible and the time restraints that limited the changes that could be made.
Honestly... I think the release of the Advanced Class Guide didn't help Paizo. I've mocked it as the "Advanced Bloat Guide" a few times, which sums up my thoughts. It was a big infusion of crunch for crunch's sake and really didn't feel like a Paizo product. There was no story, it didn't feel necessary to the APs, and the quality was low. 10 classes and that much new content was likely too much to effectively edit in time. There are a lot of small errors and problems.
But it was popular and sold really well, so what do I know?
I don't think any RPG has really managed to find a good way of continuing to be a presence.
Actually WotC did at one point during 3rd do exactly this and PF continues to do so using almost exactly the same model. Using organized play and third party publishers to truly invest others in the continued development and active support meant that WotC didn't have to spend all that much on marketing because others were doing it for them. Paizo is doing the same now by spending their marketing on cultivating a strong community within the real movers and shakers of the industry and player base.
The problem WotC had with 4th, and are likely to have with 5th, is that their focus on the individual DM vs a larger community. Encounters, for all that it did well, ended up being almost like extra large home games rather a true living campaign or organized play setting, which helped in some ways, but also limited its marketability, especially since it still had many of the limitations that organized play of any kind tend to have. It didn't really truly show off the system, and whatever they come up with for 5th along those lines won't either. An OGL of some kind would help with the third party publishers, but that's still an if, not a when, and even if they do put one out, 3PP's aren't going to just dive into it. Most of them already have a lot invested in Pathfinder, and will likely find the business climate of doing business with Paizo more comfortable than trying to work with WotC again on a permanent basis, at least initially.
Getting individual DMs who only run home games excited is good and important, but it's not the first or only step in a good marketing plan. Paizo doesn't succeed because they cater to the home games first or only; they succeed because the APs, which cater to the home games, and organized play, which pulls in leadership from around the community, support and feed off of each other, generating constant self advertising. They further strengthen this by maintaining strong ties with the indy publishing companies, bringing in even more leadership and active support. WotC had this with 3rd, did not with 4th, and will struggle to get this with 5th. It's not that 5th is bad; it's just that the system does not actively support such an ecosystem the way that 3rd/PF does and WotC doesn't seem to understand how they succeeded in the first place, and actually started losing a lot of their strength late in 3.5 when they started abandoning the OGL instead of working with the greater community to fix it.
I think D&D/PF players were about ready for a change. It's a good time for a new RPG.
I'll believe this when I see it happen in the marketplace and not just on forums. There is definitely a notable group of players that are ready for a change, but I'm not convinced that the OGL crowd is really that ready for a change. I think ACG is actually a good indicator of that; a lot of people didn't like the book, but still had enough faith overall in Paizo to buy it and continue to support the company and the system. I don't think an updated version of Pathfinder would be a autosuccess, but I don't think it's an autofailure either. A lot of people still clearly want a well written, actively supported OGL 3.x style game, and Paizo has proven themselves to be one of the better companies to provide that while being able to learn from their mistakes. They have had weak books in the past and gotten over them with virtually no residual impact. As long Unchained is noticeably better than the ACG and also shows signs that they learned from the ACG, most people will continue to have faith in them. After all, even with WotC, it wasn't until they had a string of really bad supplements at the end of 3.5 that people really started getting upset.
As for being a new system, this is a good time and a bad time. People looking for new entertainment is high, but so is skepticism and attention spans are inversely much shorter, meaning that sustaining interest is harder even if the initial launch is easier. Getting people interested and getting people invested are two different things, and it's the latter that really supports a brand. Unfortunately, that is also the step that is much harder in the current entertainment market. Paizo has done surprisingly well in this area, and it's a key part of their success. They may not get as many eyeballs as WotC does with a better known brand, but the eyeballs they do get are far more likely to stick around and put money behind the first glances. If I were a WotC executive, I would not be overly excited about the success of the launch, though I would be cautiously optimistic, until I saw numbers for repeat buyers, especially since they have far less product lines than Paizo, and thus, getting people to buy into that product line repeatedly is going to be far more important to them than it is for Paizo and any single line.
I don't know where my purchases help in sales rankings, but I bought all three 5th ed core books at once through Amazon a few days after the DMG released, so that I could get them for about $30 each and get free shipping. I just could not afford to buy at retail from local game shops and I am sure not many local shops would offer any kind of discount anywhere close to what you can get when buying online.
As for Pathfinder products, between work and life getting in the way and the constant flood, at least to me, of new books, I have not been able to keep up and have not gotten any new Pathfinder books in at least a year and a half. But one I figure out where I left off and which recent releases I want, I may get back to getting them again soon.
But aside from all that, both systems can co-exist and do well and both will be in the top 5 of whatever sales chart is being used for as long as both are being sold. However, I would be surprised if the charts for the fourth quarter of 2014, when all three core books were finally available, did not have those books in the top three sales slots. And since the DMG just came out last month, it will probably be the top seller for the first quarter of 2015. And what book comes out on top in the second quarter is anyone's guess.
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I don't think any RPG has really managed to find a good way of continuing to be a presence.Actually WotC did at one point during 3rd do exactly this and PF continues to do so using almost exactly the same model. Using organized play and third party publishers to truly invest others in the continued development and active support meant that WotC didn't have to spend all that much on marketing because others were doing it for them. Paizo is doing the same now by spending their marketing on cultivating a strong community within the real movers and shakers of the industry and player base.
Organized play helps. PFS has certainly helped boost Pathfinder's presence. And it encourages people to try, since they can buy the content and be guaranteed to play.
But it's not the be-all-end-all. Organized Play is often confined to stores, so unless people trip and fall into a game store they'll never hear of PFS or D&D Expeditions. And that just shifts the onus of sales and marketing onto the individual stores, and game stores are not known for being great examples of well-run businesses. It relies on the store to advertise their existence in addition to the OP play.
Plus, as more and more people move purchasing online, it's easier to bypass the store experience altogether.
Similarly, 3rd Party Products are a great way of encouraging people to buy the main game. It worked well for WotC during 3e and for Pathfinder. And WotC seems to have (re)learned that lesson as there's talk of a new OGL. (Delayed, again, because D&D is vestigial to WotC and getting approval is likely slooooow.)
Neither company has really shown an ability to get to new audiences. Most advertisement for D&D tends to be on gaming websites, advertising to people already likely in-the-know.
Back when I was a kid comic ads were the rage. This continued well into the late 3e era, but stopped around 2008. The last comic advertisement I saw was for the relaunch of the D&D minis game. But comics aren't exactly a thriving industry with a huge audience either.
The one exception I can think of was the Penny Arcade/PvP podcasts, that brought their audiences to the game. But that was a one time thing, as anyone interested has already been brought in, and everyone else ignored things.
The best potential improvement I've seen is the D&D website, with the basic rules as a free PDF and the new hyperlinked rules. So the start up cost for beginning to play is $0. Because when someone is curious about the game the first thing they're going to do Google it. And a few small tweaks like How-to-Play videos would help.
This is a way Paizo is lagging behind. Their website is... well, it hasn't majorly changed in ten years. It's not easy to navigate and is really more of a webstore than a site dedicated to a game.
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But it's not the be-all-end-all.
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The best potential improvement I've seen is the D&D website, with the basic rules as a free PDF and the new hyperlinked rules. So the start up cost for beginning to play is $0. Because when someone is curious about the game the first thing they're going to do Google it. And a few small tweaks like How-to-Play videos would help.
This is a way Paizo is lagging behind. Their website is... well, it hasn't majorly changed in ten years. It's not easy to navigate and is really more of a webstore than a site dedicated to a game.
The key is that nothing by itself is the ultimate solution, but rather an entire chain of smaller, more focused solutions, and that is what WotC had, and Paizo has today.
Paizo has the APs for the home crowd, organized play to get the local retailers involved, a number of product lines for the core rules, companion books, and accessories to augment both of the above, a license that lets 3rd party publishers get in on the process, and a strong online component to bring in that crowd. They all work together to strengthen each other and produce a result greater than the sum of its parts.
WotC, on the other hand, has a bunch of largely separate product lines that have little or no relation to each other which limits any success from bolstering all of the other areas of the brand. Unless they change this, a successful movie or video game or anything else that resonates in the main stream media isn't going to help them much. They also have virtually no online or electronic presence, hampering them further.
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As for the second point, about all Paizo really needs to do a front page that would then direct people to the various things on the website, like the different forums, the store, and the online rules. That's a very minor gripe, though, and most people manage to navigate the site just fine without it. As for WotC's website, I've seen it and I'm not impressed. They actually make it harder to find most of the relevant stuff in the process of trying to make it easier, and the archives have been completely removed, reducing its usefulness for a lot of people. I'll take Paizo's website any day. It's not perfect, but it has far more information on it and once you figure out the basic setup, it's not that hard to navigate.
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I agree.
WotC's new website looks good, but it slows down my computer a lot and it's hard to find things there.
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On the other hand, there's the SRD and the d20pfsrd and the Archives of N????? site. The resources for playing Pathfinder for free are far more complete and easier to get at than basic D&D.
If anything, they're overwhelming.
There is the PRD, but the link is buried and hidden on the Paizo site.
The PRD and the other sites are more rules reference sites, and not really designed to serve as "how to play" guides. There's no real focus or attention on walking new players through the process or anything that directs new people to the game.Pathfinder's strategy seems to be the familiar "here's the starter set product, buy that or receive that as a gift and get started." Which works to some degree.
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Paizo has the APs for the home crowd, organized play to get the local retailers involved, a number of product lines for the core rules, companion books, and accessories to augment both of the above, a license that lets 3rd party publishers get in on the process, and a strong online component to bring in that crowd. They all work together to strengthen each other and produce a result greater than the sum of its parts.
The APs and OP are great but don't reach people outside the game. Pathfinder is excellent at connecting its products with strengthens sales and directs people between product lines.
But that's still self contained. Nothing reaches outside the little sphere of people-in-the-know. It's all preaching to the converted.WotC, on the other hand, has a bunch of largely separate product lines that have little or no relation to each other which limits any success from bolstering all of the other areas of the brand. Unless they change this, a successful movie or video game or anything else that resonates in the main stream media isn't going to help them much. They also have virtually no online or electronic presence, hampering them further.
WotC's strategy is changing slightly, so the full effectiveness remains to be seen.
They're focusing on the storylines, which are akin to the APs. That's central to their plan. The storylines connect to their licensed miniatures lines, as well as the Neverwinter MMO reaching players of that game. And the storyline also ties into their novels (loosely) and comic book.So everything directs people to their RPG storyline products.
And they're developing its Organized Play program. Which is also tied to the storyline.
But, other than Neverwinter, WotC isn't doing much to reach non-gamers.
The lack of electronic presence is a problem, but that might change if an OGL allows digital tools. Lone Wolf is ready to support them. Paizo doesn't do much digitally either, other than PDFs. They have a couple okay apps and mostly rely on the fans to produce and maintain rule apps.
But this isn't a case of "which is better". In this case Paizo really isn't much better. Both companies are sitting around waiting for gamers to discover them, relying on individual home groups and gamers to bring non-gamers into the fold.
No one really seems to have any idea of how to branch out beyond the established pool of gamers.
As for the second point, about all Paizo really needs to do a front page that would then direct people to the various things on the website, like the different forums, the store, and the online rules. That's a very minor gripe, though, and most people manage to navigate the site just fine without it.
I'll take Paizo's website any day. It's not perfect, but it has far more information on it and once you figure out the basic setup, it's not that hard to navigate.
Well, I've always found WotC's website to be questionable. The newest one is meant to showoff the game, not even trying to be a news or reference site. (To say nothing of the abomination that is the forums.) Really, I think they've given up on trying to get fans to visit their site, lacking the manpower for regular updates, and news constantly being scooped by ENWorld or other sites.
Paizo's website works... once you figure it out. There's a learning curve. I still find searching for products I want to be painful at times. And a LOT of text.
There's very little to direct newcomers to the RPG, or even acknowledge that this is a publisher site and not just a store. Heck, the centerpiece of the site is the store blog.
It's also not very mobile friendly, requiring a lot of zooming to navigate as you read and try and click tiny links. Mobile devices are being more and more prevalent as the primary way of accessing the internet, especially for youths. Paizo updated the PRD with mobile devices in mind but their main site is still problematic. Having tried to register and report PFS games on my iPad I've found the experience extremely frustrating and slow.
There's no real focus or attention on walking new players through the process
That's the one single thing that WotC's site has that Paizo's doesn't, and even that is often dealt with on Paizo's site via the advice section of the forums. While a place for formal guides like that would be nice, if that is the worst complaint made about the site, it's doing quite well. WotC's site, for all that is very pretty, falls far short of that bar; what is there tends to be decent enough, but there is far too much that isn't there and isn't even accessible from there.
But this isn't a case of "which is better". In this case Paizo really isn't much better. Both companies are sitting around waiting for gamers to discover them, relying on individual home groups and gamers to bring non-gamers into the fold.
No one really seems to have any idea of how to branch out beyond the established pool of gamers.
So it's really a question of whether either can figure out the solution, and if so, who does it first? Paizo has the organization and the ability to turn small successes into larger successes while WotC, if they chose to, could potentially throw more resources at it. I'd still bet on Paizo if I had to bet; they are already having at least minor success with novels and have a computer game in development, as well as the know how to take full advantage of any successes in those arenas. WotC, for all that it should have a very clear advantage, lacks both leadership and focus, which hurts them far more than Paizo's lack of name recognition hurts Paizo. Even when they do get a boost or a success, they can't/don't use it for anything, and it eventually fades away leaving them back where they started with no clear path of how to get beyond that starting point permanently.
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If D&D had ever been anything but a second-string game in the fantasy RPG market in Germany that would be rather more impressive. Though it's a good time to be competing with a game where the product schedule is low due to the next edition being developed.We've just learned from our German translation partners that there are now more Pathfinder products in German than there have ever been D&D products—ever, regardless of edition. And while our French translation partners haven't actually counted, they believe the same is probably true for their language.
For those not in the know, you're speaking of Das Schwarze Auge, which has pretty much always been the most successful RPG in Germany, and is just about to release their own 5th edition. DSA is published by the same company that publishes Pathfinder in German, and I can tell you that they're expecting Pathfinder to continue to do just as well with DSA 5 in the mix—and their release schedule backs that up, as they're actually increasing production.
The pace is also increasing in French, German, Italian, Spanish, and Portuguese, and there are several other languages in development. On the other hand, last I heard, there are no official translations of D&D 5th Edition in the works in any language.
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How long after Pathfinder was released did it take to get a stable of non-English versions on the shelf? 5e is six months old or so, if it was in that time frame, I think it would fair to bring up their lack of foreign language editions. Otherwise, not so much.
There's a bit more to it in this case. The companies that had previously handled translations got told "no thanks" back around July.
For example, Hobby Japan (the Japanese translators/distributors for 3rd and 4th Edition), put out this message.
The relevant part (full translation here):
Since January of 2013, we have been engaging in promotional activities, primarily through "Table Game Channel", on the assumption of making the transtion from D&D 4th Edition to D&D Next. However, Wizards of the Coast, the publisher of D&D, has decided to sell only English versions of D&D Next, and not put out a license for translations. This applies not only to Japan, but all non-English language regions.
As a result, we cannot release a Japanese version of D&D Next.
We deeply apologize that we can meet the expectations of everyone who was looking forward to a Japanese version of D&D Next.
The German translators confirmed they also weren't being asked to translate 5th edition.
To the best of my knowledge, WotC has not announced its own plans to translate the game and no other company has stepped forward to say they've been granted these contracts. It's possible I missed something, but nothing of the sort showed up on Google.
Cheers!
Landon
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So it's really a question of whether either can figure out the solution, and if so, who does it first? Paizo has the organization and the ability to turn small successes into larger successes while WotC, if they chose to, could potentially throw more resources at it. I'd still bet on Paizo if I had to bet; they are already having at least minor success with novels and have a computer game in development, as well as the know how to take full advantage of any successes in those arenas. WotC, for all that it should have a very clear advantage, lacks both leadership and focus, which hurts them far more than Paizo's lack of name recognition hurts Paizo. Even when they do get a boost or a success, they can't/don't use it for anything, and it eventually fades away leaving them back where they started with no clear path of how to get beyond that starting point permanently.But this isn't a case of "which is better". In this case Paizo really isn't much better. Both companies are sitting around waiting for gamers to discover them, relying on individual home groups and gamers to bring non-gamers into the fold.
No one really seems to have any idea of how to branch out beyond the established pool of gamers.
In fairness, WotC also has novels and almost certainly has a computer game in development. In addition to the wealth of already available computer games.
But I don't think of it so much of "whomever thinks of the solution first wins" as "whomever thinks of the solution first saves the industry."
It's a greying hobby. Ryan Dancy has compared RPGs as something that could become this small hobby community like model trains. It wouldn't be the first game or hobby to become popular and die. Most of the war games that founded the hobby have faded away.
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How long after Pathfinder was released did it take to get a stable of non-English versions on the shelf? 5e is six months old or so, if it was in that time frame, I think it would fair to bring up their lack of foreign language editions. Otherwise, not so much.
Tracking down the exact answer would take a bit, but I know that we had announced French and German even before we released the English version and I believe both of those languages had their versions of the Core Rulebook out quickly. We released in August 2009, and I'm pretty sure French was out before year end, and German was pretty close to French.
(Also, I've learned that Lisa has already revealed that Chinese and Hebrew translations are in progress, and there are still others to be announced.)
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How long after Pathfinder was released did it take to get a stable of non-English versions on the shelf? 5e is six months old or so, if it was in that time frame, I think it would fair to bring up their lack of foreign language editions. Otherwise, not so much.Tracking down the exact answer would take a bit, but I know that we had announced French and German even before we released the English version and I believe both of those languages had their versions of the Core Rulebook out quickly. We released in August 2009, and I'm pretty sure French was out before year end, and German was pretty close to French.
(Also, I've learned that Lisa has already revealed that Chinese and Hebrew translations are in progress, and there are still others to be announced.)
Right on :-)
Well, I guess we know how many quarters they'll be beating Pathfinder in anything other than English.
First, sorry for spelling-errors. I'm from Cuba and a diehard D&D fan. I've tumbled with the various editions, and except for OD&D I've tested all. I also tried my luck with Pathfinder... and GURPS. In my country there is NO market for Tabletop RPGs as no companies have editorial space, only state companies. And they don't care about that stuff. Heck, even common literature is not really printed regularly. General books are imported or selled by speciallized individuals and on international fairs.
All that said, I've been playing a self-taught game of D&D that started in 2004 and has been a little bumpy, starting by the unavailability of dice, rulebooks, and whatnot. And I know for a fact, as a result of my search for resources, that other spanish speaking countries have it only a little better. In Spain, for example, there is a thriving community of gamers of D&D of all editions AND pathfinder. But, they have to work, of course, with homemade translations and limited supplies. As a result, lots of indie games have rised in the spanish-speaking world, but no one can claim the market. D&D and Pathfinder ARE the industry standard in those countries, and some indie games borrow heavily from those, thanks to the SRD, as well from GURPS for the d6 mechanic. Dice are expensive.
All my books are illegaly downloaded, except for Pathfinder Core Rules, that was facilitated by this generous community in the digital format. But, Pathfinder is difficult, as it requires lots of knowledge before the fact. Knowledge that a begginer can get a little more easy on the game table, but tediously from the books. The fact that those books are in a foreign language doesn't make the task any easier. As a result, I currently direct regular sessions of 5th edition on sunday afternoon of the Hoard of the Dragon Queen, and even if I enjoy the experience, I think there is lots of tiny flaws in this edition, that are residues of previous editions legacies. Also, as an ex-4th edition GM, I welcome the fast paced structure of 5th edition (which is also in pathfinder, so you know I know) but I miss a lot of the normalization and modularity of the 4th edition. If Paizo published Pathfinder in my language in my country it would sell. The same can be said for WotC.
Meaning, it is time for an aggressive internationalization of the hobby. I'm sure freelancers could be hire for the task. For example, we translated almost all the rules in 4th edition books, call it core rules or supplements, and we are more satisfied with our translation decisions than those from Devir, the brazilian translator for portuguese and spanish translations (for example, the warlock power Eyebite, was translated as Visual Bite ("Mordida Visual"), and we call it, a year before them, Penetrating Gaze ("Mirada Penetrante")). We also translated most of Pathfinder rules (about 70%).
Well, that's my grain of salt.
Of topic of course, but I think "Eyebite" comes from the idea of the "Evil Eye" originally. "Mal de Ojo" in Spanish as you probably know, Keichiku. Maybe a better translation?
First, sorry for spelling-errors. I'm from Cuba and a diehard D&D fan. I've tumbled with the various editions, and except for OD&D I've tested all. I also tried my luck with Pathfinder... and GURPS. In my country there is NO market for Tabletop RPGs as no companies have editorial space, only state companies. And they don't care about that stuff. Heck, even common literature is not really printed regularly. General books are imported or selled by speciallized individuals and on international fairs.
All that said, I've been playing a self-taught game of D&D that started in 2004 and has been a little bumpy, starting by the unavailability of dice, rulebooks, and whatnot. And I know for a fact, as a result of my search for resources, that other spanish speaking countries have it only a little better. In Spain, for example, there is a thriving community of gamers of D&D of all editions AND pathfinder. But, they have to work, of course, with homemade translations and limited supplies. As a result, lots of indie games have rised in the spanish-speaking world, but no one can claim the market. D&D and Pathfinder ARE the industry standard in those countries, and some indie games borrow heavily from those, thanks to the SRD, as well from GURPS for the d6 mechanic. Dice are expensive.
All my books are illegaly downloaded, except for Pathfinder Core Rules, that was facilitated by this generous community in the digital format. But, Pathfinder is difficult, as it requires lots of knowledge before the fact. Knowledge that a begginer can get a little more easy on the game table, but tediously from the books. The fact that those books are in a foreign language doesn't make the task any easier. As a result, I currently direct regular sessions of 5th edition on sunday afternoon of the Hoard of the Dragon Queen, and even if I enjoy the experience, I think there is lots of tiny flaws in this edition, that are residues of previous editions legacies. Also, as an ex-4th edition GM, I welcome the fast paced structure of 5th edition...
I don't know nothing about your translations, but I can only agree about DeVir translation. Specially the 3ed Forgotten Realms ones. That was simply atrociuos.
I would like to repost the question I made before. The Icv2 lists are only USA/ north America, or are they international?
If Vic is still checking this thread, I have a question: This talk about the spread of Pathfinder internationally is pretty exciting. Is there any chance that the Beginner Box will see any translations?
I would like to repost the question I made before. The Icv2 lists are only USA/ north America, or are they international?IIRC they're US + Canada only, but this region represents 70-80% of pen'n'paper RPG sales worldwide, and likely even more so as far as D&D is concerned.
Ok, thanks. That's more or less what I guess. I would love to see more attention to RPG outside north-america, but it's really a minority thing.
what just happened! I was trying to reply somthing. So sorry for the pas post.
In the power "Eye Bite" the Warlock look into one persons mind and turn invisible for a couple of seconds for him. "Mal de Ojo" is more of a permanent curse that's related with jinxes. Also the 3rd edition official translation was "Mirada Penetrante".
nevermind the past post first line, my browser was been naughty.
We didn't randomly translated thinks. For example, the skill "streetwise" doen't have a similar in spanish. More related would be "callejeo" as it means some street knowledge, as is implied in the skill. Devir went with "Recursos" or Resources. We can see the idea, of a Street Resource, but the translation sucks. But, we couldn't find any better, so we went for "Recursos". As much as possible we tried to be coherent with Devir. The used some things better than us, for example the "Marks" the defender use, we translated it as "Marca", pretty staightforward. Devir used "Señal" which was better, as "Marca" is a more generic thing and could be confused with other kinds of marks.
I think if the north-american market wasn't the 70-80% they would have more breathing space. But as that market flow they flow.
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Well.. things might shift a little in my thoughts for spring 2015, as WotC now only has the adventure.
Yeah, it's interesting news. They have the Neverwinter (videogame) expansion and I believe there may still be a boardgame coming out.
But no player book.
Will people pay $50 for an adventure they might not use for hard copy content that's also in a free PDF? Very possibly not.
You know, if I were considering running Princes of the Apocalypse, I'd strongly discourage my players from getting the book.
And, even as a dead tree enthusiast like myself, having a few pages you want (player options) bound to a whole bunch of pages you don't want (spoilers) seems like anti-value. And it sounds like the PDF might have some content above what's in the book, so they'll end up with the PDF anyway.
I guess we'll see what they come out with, but I agree this doesn't sound like something they're expected players to pick up.
Cheers!
Landon
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I love that they're focusing on few books. I used to play CCGs/LCGs but dropped out from the expansion treadmill. This looks much more manageable.
It also means that PF will reign supreme on the ICv2.
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Well.. things might shift a little in my thoughts for spring 2015, as WotC now only has the adventure.Yeah, it's interesting news. They have the Neverwinter (videogame) expansion and I believe there may still be a boardgame coming out.
But no player book.
Will people pay $50 for an adventure they might not use for hard copy content that's also in a free PDF? Very possibly not.You know, if I were considering running Princes of the Apocalypse, I'd strongly discourage my players from getting the book.
And, even as a dead tree enthusiast like myself, having a few pages you want (player options) bound to a whole bunch of pages you don't want (spoilers) seems like anti-value. And it sounds like the PDF might have some content above what's in the book, so they'll end up with the PDF anyway.
I guess we'll see what they come out with, but I agree this doesn't sound like something they're expected players to pick up.
Cheers!
Landon
I imagine the idea is that people uninterested in running the adventure will buy, see the quality, and decide to give it a try. Sunk cost fallacy and all.
Anyone who doesn't want players to buy the book, can still direct them to the PDF.And with more content in the book, the value is better. At $50, the adventure seemed steep. But with more content and pages, it seems much more appealing.