The 5e PHB is Amazon's Best. Selling. BOOK. now.And right behind the PHB on the Amazon bestseller list is the Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association. Clearly, we are witnessing the ultimate popularity contest in the history of tabletop gaming. Is D&D the more popular pastime, or will it eventually be overtaken by writing term papers?
EDIT: Actually, both are now losing to a critically acclaimed novel by Gayle Forman. I can't wait to see how her cutting-edge game mechanics "change the way [I] look at life, love, and family."
To be fair, the Pathfinder Core Rule book is the highest ranked Pathfinder book and is currently #3,171 in the "books" category on Amazon.com.
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I'd be surprised if it got two quarters. One, sure, because people will just buy what there is to take a look at it, but all in all, I wasn't terribly interested. They made a lot of mistakes in making 4th Edition, and they're still not really sure what it is they're trying to make; a storytelling system or a dynamic leveling up machine or a computer game.
Pathfinder succeeded because it allows people to use their homebrew, use their 3rd party and 3rd edition rules and adventures; it is entirely possible to create the story and gameworld that you want; that's why i keep picking up more splatbooks, not just to give me more options, but because I appreciate the company making them; I trust that they actually care about this game I'm spending my time (and money) on.
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I'd be surprised if it got two quarters. One, sure, because people will just buy what there is to take a look at it, but all in all, I wasn't terribly interested.
Ah, yes. The "My personal lack of interest practically guarantees its widespread commercial failure!" hypothesis - nigh unassailable.
At this point, given the game's reception and sales, the only thing I can see preventing it from holding the top place on ICV2's list is if WotC decides to stop putting new books on the shelves.
I'd be surprised if it got two quarters. One, sure, because people will just buy what there is to take a look at it, but all in all, I wasn't terribly interested.Ah, yes. The "My personal lack of interest practically guarantees its widespread commercial failure!" hypothesis - nigh unassailable.
At this point, given the game's reception and sales, the only thing I can see preventing it from holding the top place on ICV2's list is if WotC decides to stop putting new books on the shelves.
To be fair, from info from Mike Searles, it sounds like the production schedule for 5E will be much slower than it has been for previous editions
This is probably because of the simplified ruleset and to keep rulebooks from being left with niche options to soon, and allow this edition to exist "longer".
That could lead to a much more swingy sales, and its not entirely clear to me that everyone who buys the Player's guide + DMG + monster manual will necessarily go on to buy every future hardcover
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What I can't wait to see is how quick of a turnaround some of the posters here will have, from touting the ICv2 numbers as unassailable, to talking about how they are meaningless because of the factors that many people have pointed out over and over.
You mean all the "it doesn't factor DDI and if you factor DDI D&D IS THE BEST!" people? :)
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I'd be surprised if it got two quarters. One, sure, because people will just buy what there is to take a look at it, but all in all, I wasn't terribly interested.Ah, yes. The "My personal lack of interest practically guarantees its widespread commercial failure!" hypothesis - nigh unassailable.
At this point, given the game's reception and sales, the only thing I can see preventing it from holding the top place on ICV2's list is if WotC decides to stop putting new books on the shelves.
To be fair, from info from Mike Searles, it sounds like the production schedule for 5E will be much slower than it has been for previous editions
This is probably because of the simplified ruleset and to keep rulebooks from being left with niche options to soon, and allow this edition to exist "longer".
That could lead to a much more swingy sales, and its not entirely clear to me that everyone who buys the Player's guide + DMG + monster manual will necessarily go on to buy every future hardcover
Personally, I think the relative market sizes referenced in the study gorbacz listed here could have something to do with it.
In my mind it provides context to the comments from WotC about broadening what D&D is. It wouldn't surprise me if their future corporate effort was devoted heavily towards non-TTRPG products (presumably computer game revenue also dwarfs that from RPGs) based on those relative sales estimates.
I think the DMG will be the real test when it comes out.
There were a great many things I liked in the 5e PHB, there were also things that looked good on paper and even in individual combats, but running an extended campaign has shown some flaws not initially noticed. Also, based on my experiences with HotDQ, I'd rather take Paizo's products over WotC's any day.
I think it will be good for 3-4 quarters. Once the inital bubble is over I think it will still be bigger than the other RPGs. That will last a bit longer than just on release and enough for 1-2 quarters beyond that.
Only 2 books announced for 2015 though so far.
There were a great many things I liked in the 5e PHB, there were also things that looked good on paper and even in individual combats, but running an extended campaign has shown some flaws not initially noticed.
Interesting. What flaws are you seeing with an extended campaign?
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It looks like D&D 5e didn't beat Pathfinder in the month that the PHB was released:
http://www.icv2.com/articles/news/29999.html
I am genuinely surprised. Are sales weaker than expected? Is that why Hasbro didn't even mention the D&D release in its earnings summary?
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It looks like D&D 5e didn't beat Pathfinder in the month that the PHB was released:
http://www.icv2.com/articles/news/29999.html
I am genuinely surprised. Are sales weaker than expected? Is that why Hasbro didn't even mention the D&D release in its earnings summary?
I believe Hasbro never mentions D&D in its earnings summary. They bought WotC for pokemon and magic, not for D&D.
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It looks like D&D 5e didn't beat Pathfinder in the month that the PHB was released:
http://www.icv2.com/articles/news/29999.html
I am genuinely surprised. Are sales weaker than expected? Is that why Hasbro didn't even mention the D&D release in its earnings summary?
It outsold PF by a large margin on Amazon though so there is that.
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Weren't there two products, or how is ICV counting the summer. Starter Set and the PHB.
Hmm, the PHB released and supposedly had unexpectedly good sales? Isn't that correct?
Amazon seemed to indicate this as well.
I think this could be several things.
First, it could call into how valid the ICV stats are anymore, and how relavant they are.
Are a majority of RPG sales now done via online sales?
Is that where the disconnect comes from?
It could show that the market in sales has shifted for RPGs into a primarily online thing.
Or could it show that the low prices from Amazon and other online retailers have led to it primarily selling online and that these sales actually undercut retail so much that most retail won't even see the benefits of these sales?
I have a hard time thinking that the PHB sold that badly with how they presented their surprise at sales numbers.
OR, are WotC's expectations that low in regards to PHB sales.
Or is the timeline wrong for dates of how ICV counts the summer sales?
Weren't there two products, or how is ICV counting the summer. Starter Set and the PHB.
Hmm, the PHB released and supposedly had unexpectedly good sales? Isn't that correct?
Amazon seemed to indicate this as well.
I think this could be several things.
First, it could call into how valid the ICV stats are anymore, and how relavant they are.
Are a majority of RPG sales now done via online sales?
Is that where the disconnect comes from?
It could show that the market in sales has shifted for RPGs into a primarily online thing.
Or could it show that the low sales from Amazon and other online retailers have led to it primarily selling online and that these sales actually undercut retail so much that most retail won't even see the benefits of these sales?
I have a hard time thinking that the PHB sold that badly with how they presented their surprise at sales numbers.
OR, are WotC's expectations that low in regards to PHB sales.
Or is the timeline wrong for dates of how ICV counts the summer sales?
Its definitely weird. I assume that "summer" sales counts all of August and perhaps part of September which should have been when the PHB flew out the doors.
This only counts sales a gaming and comic retailers. Maybe the Advanced Class Guide outsold the PHB in August? If the PHB sold out that could restrict sales. But it seems strange that more ACGs would be pre ordered than PHBs.
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From the article:
The launch of the new edition of WotC’s Dungeons & Dragons was like a shot of adrenaline for the RPG category, but although the two D&D releases that shipped in the summer season sold well, they were insufficient to knock off Pathfinder, which hung on to its #1 slot in the category.
{My bold.} So, yeah, it includes both Starter Set and Player's Handbook.
It's always possible that 5e PHB sold quite well and it wasn't enough to knock Pathfinder out of the top spot. After all, Pathfinder had a lot more products available to buy this summer. It's not just new releases. Erik Mona (iirc) was quoted in an article around GenCon that Paizo has sold more CRBs every year since launch than the previous year.
It seems more then weird, it sounds like there's a disconnect between ICV reports and sales.
The only thought I have is that online sales are so predominant these days, that ICV has no bearing on RPG sales...especially in light of the low prices offered at Amazon and others vs. retail outlets (let's see, ~$30 USD online, or ~$50 USD at retail).
If that is the case, ICV is no longer really a reliable source to determine numbers and Amazon (even with how volatile those numbers can be, sometimes switching hour to hour) may be more reliable on how sales (at least in the US) are doing.
It could also be that ICV counts summer as a very short time frame or something else?
The only other thought I have, since even WotC sounded surprised at the sales numbers, is that their expectations were inordinately low, and what they thought was good (remember, they are much smaller than Paizo currently) was not actually that good.
There is ONE other possibility however. It could account for the disconnect. Paizo released several products over the summer. Some were pretty eagerly anticipated (ACG, MM AP x 3), and others. It could be that no single item from Paizo outsold the PHB, but all the products together outsold what WotC put out. (Ah, Joanna Ninja'd me on this last thought).
Other random thoughts:
Some people may be waiting to see the DMG and Monster Manual before buying in. Also..its a new release of a new system. It might take a bit for word of mouth to spread around or groups to get invested in the system.
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If that is the case, ICV is no longer really a reliable source to determine numbers and Amazon (even with how volatile those numbers can be, sometimes switching hour to hour) may be more reliable on how sales (at least in the US) are doing.
You say that like it has ever been all that reliable of a source.
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Yeah, ICV's numbers are a data point, but have never been the whole story.
D&D actually had three releases - the starter set, PHB, and the Hoard of the Dragon Queen adventure.
In that same time period, Paizo probably had 12-15 releases, so that may have skewed perceptions in the distributors and retailers that were interviewed.
I was surprised that The Strange and/or Numenera had disappeared from the list. That fell away quickly.
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There were a great many things I liked in the 5e PHB, there were also things that looked good on paper and even in individual combats, but running an extended campaign has shown some flaws not initially noticed.Interesting. What flaws are you seeing with an extended campaign?
I converted our D&D Next campaign over to D&D 5E because I wanted to test the new rules at high levels. Both 3E and 4E fell apart soon after 10th level. I am not seeing any flaws in an extended campaign; quite the opposite in fact.
The PCs just hit 17th level and the game works well. Each character has great power but tough choices are baked in. For example, the wizard took wish as one of his spells. He can now cast nearly any spell in the PH.
However, if he wants a more powerful effect, he risks injury and even the possibility of losing the ability to cast wish forever. If he ever gets in a tough spot he might use the more powerful version to try to save the day.
The wizard has also had to accept that his concentration spells don't last forever and that he can't be the king of every utility spell. Also, many high Challenge monsters reduce elemental damage and have advantage on saves against spells. While he struggles with the reduction in power from what he was used to in PF, I see this as a good thing. It isn't like the wizard isn't still powerful!
I also like how the martials are more involved in the game. The barbarian and ranger both have abilities to sense different types of enemies in a few miles radius. This ability prevented an ambush that is going to kick off the Bastion of Lost Souls adventure updated to 5E.
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If that is the case, ICV is no longer really a reliable source to determine numbers and Amazon (even with how volatile those numbers can be, sometimes switching hour to hour) may be more reliable on how sales (at least in the US) are doing.You say that like it has ever been all that reliable of a source.
Shoot the messenger?
Before 5e released there was a lot of speculation as to wether 5e could prosper in light of Pathfinder's new dominance. I would think that next quarter will be 5e's best shot at taking the top spot. If it can't do that then I would begin to wonder about its longevity. (Hasbro pulled the plug quickly on 4e as soon as it was no longer in the top sales spot.)
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The wizard has also had to accept that his concentration spells don't last forever and that he can't be the king of every utility spell. Also, many high Challenge monsters reduce elemental damage and have advantage on saves against spells. While he struggles with the reduction in power from what he was used to in PF, I see this as a good thing. It isn't like the wizard isn't still powerful!
Is the person playing the wizard enjoying it as much as he enjoyed Pathfinder?
As a GM I can appreciate the reduction in power, but I know some of my players would feel differently.
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If it can't do that then I would begin to wonder about its longevity. (Hasbro pulled the plug quickly on 4e as soon as it was no longer in the top sales spot.)
I would sooner suspect it has more to do with return on investment. if the books sell well enough to make wotc a profit (or, I should say a sufficient level of profit), then I suspect they will keep it around for quite some time even if it is not number one.
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The wizard has also had to accept that his concentration spells don't last forever and that he can't be the king of every utility spell. Also, many high Challenge monsters reduce elemental damage and have advantage on saves against spells. While he struggles with the reduction in power from what he was used to in PF, I see this as a good thing. It isn't like the wizard isn't still powerful!
Is the person playing the wizard enjoying it as much as he enjoyed Pathfinder?
As a GM I can appreciate the reduction in power, but I know some of my players would feel differently.
He has told me he is having a great time. I know he has to readjust his thinking a lot as we play through the game. His expectations of how he thinks his character should work sometimes aren't met, but then he has a lot of fun playing the game anyway. He has been a good sport about it and really learning a new edition requires some changes in understanding of how the game works.
We had an interesting discussion about wish. Once he worked through how the spell actually worked in 5E he then seemed fine with it. Just a lot of mental gears changing to get there is all.
Basically, wizards don't get to be everything now (buffer, utility, blaster all the time). But they get unique wizardly things (like getting some expanded spell slots back after a short rest, cast certain spells all the time, school abilities for every wizard etc.) that make up for it with less power overall but a certain uniqueness.
Other random thoughts:
Some people may be waiting to see the DMG and Monster Manual before buying in. Also..its a new release of a new system. It might take a bit for word of mouth to spread around or groups to get invested in the system.
I remember the early errata of 4e, including basically the entire Stealth rules section. I'm waiting for a 3rd or 4th printing before I plunk down any money. If I could get a forever-updated PDF from them like I can from Paizo, they'd already have my money.
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If that is the case, ICV is no longer really a reliable source to determine numbers and Amazon (even with how volatile those numbers can be, sometimes switching hour to hour) may be more reliable on how sales (at least in the US) are doing.You say that like it has ever been all that reliable of a source.
Given this threads dedication to speculation, and now evaluation of the ICV numbers, it seems questionable to reject them. While they are not perfect, they are a good bell weather of sales.
I am a little surprised that Wizards didn't over take Pathfinder in the Summer, but we acknowledged early in the thread that Pathfinder will be difficult to dethrone because of the breadth of material that the publish, while Wizards pipeline is narrow, but high value. If they don't break through in the fall report, I'm dubious of them doing to so at all, but the fall report will include holiday shopping, so it stands a good chance.
Although I wonder how many of us, age agnostic, principally purchase our own books/games, in which case we are less likely to receive them as gifts, but purchase them post holidays with gifts?
I'm fairly certain the ICv2 Summer is 12 weeks of data with at most 4 weeks of 5E releases (yes, starter set was earlier, but that's not really the high seller.)
So the 5E PHB could be the highest selling book for August, and still not compete with the number of Pathfinder books (not just new releases, but entire back catalog) sold over a three month period.
Next quarter will really be the one to watch.
I really wish ICv2 was a bit more transparent in their data, but since its the only real source for RPG sales data, you take what you can get.
Well, we DO have Barnes and Nobles and Amazon's bestseller lists. They were used notably to back up ICv2's bestselling idea of Paizo taking the top place early on with the CRB and other PF books outselling the D&D stuff.
I would guess maybe 1 or 2 quarters, as Paizo has the upper hand on the business approach overall. You also have to consider new gamers will move to a more advance/complex product over time, so 5E will feed Pathfinder sales. And Paizo has diversified into other areas that will also be fed by fantasy RPGs in general.
And from my standpoint and experience so far, 5E does not offer enough to be different, while at the same time trying to carry the baggage of multiple editions. So any initial high volume sales will taper off because there is not way it can cater to such a diverse group of D&D players.
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The 5e Ruleset with Paizo APs would be the perfect mix for me personally, but unlikely to happen.One nice thing about rules-light systems...it's a lot easier to convert stuff to work with a lighter system.
Yep, much easier to use my 1e and 2e stuff, without much conversion at all, with 5e than with 3x/PF. And I wish people would stop thinking PF is anything but 3x with house rules and some different base classes.
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From the article:
The launch of the new edition of WotC’s Dungeons & Dragons was like a shot of adrenaline for the RPG category, but although the two D&D releases that shipped in the summer season sold well, they were insufficient to knock off Pathfinder, which hung on to its #1 slot in the category.{My bold.} So, yeah, it includes both Starter Set and Player's Handbook.
It's always possible that 5e PHB sold quite well and it wasn't enough to knock Pathfinder out of the top spot. After all, Pathfinder had a lot more products available to buy this summer. It's not just new releases. Erik Mona (iirc) was quoted in an article around GenCon that Paizo has sold more CRBs every year since launch than the previous year.
I've bought three and had one bought for me since PF CRB was released. Mostly because two fell apart.
My 1e PHB, on the other hand, looks like it came off the store shelf, in spite of being fairly well used and thirty plus years old.
So, maybe modern (read: crappy) book binding plays a part? And I'm not picking on Paizo, most books suck these days. My 5e PHB is too new to see if the binding will hold up to regular use.
Just curiosity...what is the geographical area that covers ICv2?
USA?
USA + north america (Canada/Mexico)?
USA + north america + Europe?
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Some guy is going to go on about how the math isn't that hard. That guy would be right. But I am sick of having to do all this addition and subtraction and forgetting about such and such getting dispelled as you go.
Exactly. I don't think anyone thinks the math is actually DIFFICULT, it's just addition and subtraction.
There's just way too g+@@#+n much of it. Most rolls in 3.x seem to have a minimum of about a half-dozen modifiers. It's not difficult, it's TEDIOUS. Difficult would be an improvement.
The summer numbers were released October 22nd; if the fall numbers are released a quarter later, that would be January 22nd. My guess is they're not out yet but will be by the end of the month.
ICV2 does trimesters. Spring, Summer, Fall.
So fall ended in December. March or April is normal.
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Two at least.
D&D will thump PF for certain in the Fall/Winter trimester. They hit #2 just from the Starter Set and a week of PHB sales. With all three core books coming out D&D will ride high.
The question is really if Pathfinder will hold onto #2 or if it will loose sales from people buying the pricey 5e books instead of PF material, dropping it down to #3.
Spring 2015 will be D&D as well. The next storyline launches near the end and there'll be continued sales of the core rulebooks. As positive word of mouth spreads and people convert their campaigns the core books will continue to sell. This is where the "wait and see" crowd buys books. And as the first accessory, the Adventurer's Handbook will do gangbusters sales. People are itching for more content.
Pathfinder doesn't have a lot to compete with this short of the Strategy Guide. The Strategy Guide is a neat book and looks great but I'm not sure it'll sell that well, not with 5e out. It was a fantastic idea for a book in early 2014 when the Pathfinder RPG was king of the game, but seems less appealing in early 2015 when there's a much simpler RPG on the market for new players. Fewer people are likely to discover Pathfinder as their first RPG without being introduced by friends, who are likely to help teach the game. I expect the delay and the printing error is really going to end up hurting this book.
Pathfinder Unchained is probably releasing too late in period to make a dent. And it's also another niche book. Optional rules are good, but are most useful at the start of a campaign. I expect there are going to be fewer new Pathfinder campaigns in six months that can handle a major rule patch. And this book is also unlikely to see much love from Organized Play, which does help drive those PF sales.
Summer 2015 could go either way, but will probably sway in Pathfinder's favour.
We don't know WotC's plan for that period (they haven't officially said anything beyond the DMG) but we can expect the next storyline to premier around late August for the September start of the next Encounters season. That means most of this period is dead for WotC. This might also be the first storyline they handle in-house. So if Pathfinder is going to win back the top spot, it would be now.
During these months Pathfinder will see the release of their next Inner Sea product, as well as much of the Unchained sales. And a few weeks of Occult Adventures. Inner Sea Races is a nice idea for a book and is a nice companion to Inner Sea Gods, but it overlaps with a lot of Player Companion books and the Advanced Race Guide. And unlike Inner Sea Gods the reprinted content is stand alone rather than part of the APs and less is Out of Print. It's an important test product as this will really highlight the viability of Paizo continuing to be "the Golarion company" if the RPG harder to support.
Occult Adventures is a bit fringe product AND features a lot of classes - which PF has no shortage of. I don't see Occult Adventures doing very well. I imagine a lot of Pathfinder games have reached saturation and really don't need much more content, let alone new classes. (I would have bought [and loved to buy] OA in 2014 but after the Advanced Class Guide I don't need 6 new classes.) A lot of tables might just prefer to work with the content they already own and haven't used rather than add more to the mix.
If D&D wins this period it won't be a good sign for Paizo and the Pathfinder RPG. Not at their current numbers and amount of content.
If D&D wins this period it won't be a good sign for Paizo and the Pathfinder RPG. Not at their current numbers and amount of content.
I love all of these dire predictions for Paizo if they don't automatically trounce 5E. You are right in that it will probably be a quiet year for them, but that doesn't mean that they are automatically out of the game; they have had a lot of very active years lately and quiet years happen from time to time. As long as they stay in the top 3 during this lull, they are still going to be a force to be reckoned with for some time. And frankly, I'll believe all of your predictions on all the 5E product past this spring (and even some of the spring predictions) when I see it actually happen. The core books did better than expected, but one (or two at most) option books and a handful of adventures aren't going to change the industry. Also, a lot of people are going to try 5E, and decide it's not for them, and go back to whatever system they were using before, which in a large number of cases will be Pathfinder.
5E, while it had a successful launch, and will continue to do well, is not the industry changer that will put WotC back on top that many claim it to be. It is solid, but it has weaknesses and holes and a lot of competition.
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I'm not so sure that D&D is going to outsell Pathfinder anymore (I did think so, but that was before I realised just how glacial WotC's release schedule was going to be). There are what, three titles every month for Pathfinder? They can sell to less than a quarter the audience and outsell D&D at that rate (ignoring the obvious player-book/DM-book/adventure-book fine-tuned distinctions).
I'm glad they both seem to be doing well, I'd be disappointed if WotC's success with 5E came at a significant cost to Paizo. I dont see them as very close competitors, really.
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I hope 5th ED is successful. More gamers may join the fold, then it's a win/win.
I hope 5th ED is successful. More gamers may join the fold, then it's a win/win.
I think it's already achieved that goal, and I am glad to say that I was wrong in my expectations on that count. I just don't think it's nearly as much of an industry changer as so many are treating it to be.
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I'm not so sure that D&D is going to outsell Pathfinder anymore (I did think so, but that was before I realised just how glacial WotC's release schedule was going to be). There are what, three titles every month for Pathfinder? They can sell to less than a quarter the audience and outsell D&D at that rate (ignoring the obvious player-book/DM-book/adventure-book fine-tuned distinctions).
I'm glad they both seem to be doing well, I'd be disappointed if WotC's success with 5E came at a significant cost to Paizo. I dont see them as very close competitors, really.
Yeah, the fact is that since the 5E Starter Set has come out, there have only been SIX releases for 5E. That's six books over the course of six months. Paizo spits out a LOT more...each month has at a bare minimum an AP volume, at least one Campaign Setting book, and a Player's Companion book. And with the Module and RPG lines, many months have many more than just those three.
It outsold PF by a large margin on Amazon though so there is that.It looks like D&D 5e didn't beat Pathfinder in the month that the PHB was released:
http://www.icv2.com/articles/news/29999.html
I am genuinely surprised. Are sales weaker than expected? Is that why Hasbro didn't even mention the D&D release in its earnings summary?
considering the discount you get on Amazon for it, I'm not surprised, it's a hell of a price difference between Amazon and In-Store copy. Canadian cover price is $58 for each book and Amazon is selling them at $36.