
Castarr4 |
Pathfinder Adventure Path, Lost Omens, Rulebook Subscriber

The important difference is that AC adds in things like armor and natural armor. If I'm trying to sunder your equipment (armor or weapon), then the fact that you're wearing plate-mail isn't going to help you. Therefore it's versus CMD.
Not to mention that the rules say it is:
PRD wrote:
Determine Success: If your attack roll equals or exceeds the CMD of the target, your maneuver is a success and has the listed effect. Some maneuvers, such as bull rush, have varying levels of success depending on how much your attack roll exceeds the target's CMD. Rolling a natural 20 while attempting a combat maneuver is always a success (except when attempting to escape from bonds), while rolling a natural 1 is always a failure.