Simulation / Probability Model Help Needed!


Advice


tldr; I need help figuring out if some CR3 or CR4 creatures can be beat by solo 4th level iconics.

All,

I have a small project that I need some help with. Specifically, I'm working on some solo adventures and I need to build some combat models to see if an X level Y class can defeat certain CR ratings, ALONE, without getting killed or without it being a cakewalk.

It's something like this:
http://faustusnotes.wordpress.com/2012/06/24/the-epidemiology-of-dd-what-is -the-best-ability-for-a-fighter/

Is there any sort of model that I can use to predict survivability for the 4th level iconic pregens (Ezren, Kyra, Valeros, Meri) against various foes?

I'm hoping to see if it's survivable to put a single character against:

(SET 1) rust monster, ettercap, hell hound, ogre, wight

(SET 2) worg, berghest, gargoyle, owlbear, or minotaur

Any help building the model would be greatly appreciated. It doesn't need to be at all formal.. If you have some people willing to help, you could just record a single fight and post the results.

Thanks in advance!

Robert Duncan
PFS VC-OK, Tulsa

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