DigitalMage |
I will be very curious to see where D&D is in Q1 2012 as it was in January that WotC announced work on D&D Next. Will D&D remain at number 2, or will it drop further down the chart?
Its interesting, but I really wish we could see actual sales figures (never going to happen I know) as we can't tell whether PF overtook D&D or simply D&D dropped down so far PF took the lead (if you see what I mean).
Oh, and just because I keep a record, here are the past figures with links:
2009 Q4 D&D 1st, PF 2nd
2010 Q1 D&D 1st, PF 2nd
2010 Q2 D&D 1st, PF 2nd
2010 Q3 D&D & PF 1st
2010 Q4 D&D 1st, PF 2nd
2011 Q1 D&D 1st, PF 2nd
2011 Q2 PF 1st, D&D 2nd
2011 Q3 PF 1st, D&D 2nd
2011 Q4 PF 1st, D&D 2nd
So running total:
D&D > PF x 5
PF > D&D x 3
D&D = PF x 1
Steve Geddes |
Its interesting, but I really wish we could see actual sales figures (never going to happen I know)...
I just wish it had some kind of consistency (like was survey based or something). Apparently some stores report on dollar sales, some on units sold. Are they including D&D boardgames? Game mastery flip mats? Miniatures? Do they always interview the same stores/distributors/publishers?
I found it very frustrating when I tried to actually track down the methodology.
DigitalMage |
Gorbacz wrote:I can't see a "we're working on a new edition" as a big motivator for investing in 4E.No, but will it be a big enough disincentive for D&D to drop behind Dark Heresy and co?
Yep that is what I am curious about because if it does drop into 3rd place, it might give us more of an appreciation of how big the 3rd place RPG is (for now it might be a case of its a distant 3rd place, or it could be a hot on the heels 3rd place - we don't know).
Kthulhu |
I'm not really sure that ICv2's data should be taken as that accurate, where we could really know that FFG had actually overtaken WotC if 40K did take the number 2 spot. For the past couple of years, the overwhelming majority of WotC's stuff has been via DDI, which ICv2 does NOT track. In fact, it wouldn't suprised me if 4E still has more players and does more business overall than Pathfinder...just mainly in venues that ICv2 doesn't track.
Steve Geddes |
It also doesn't count book distributors (where WoTC sell a significant amount, apparently) nor paizo's subscribers (I've always assumed that's a majority of PF sales - based on nothing but a hunch, of course).
I'm sure it isn't "accurate" (in a variety of ways) - but a protracted period in the top spot is still meaningful.
Starglyte |
Not having as many releases as Paizo and still taking the 2nd spot? Not bad WOTC, not bad at all. With a linked adventure path, a campaign book on vikings, and the long awaited Asian inspired Gazetteer for Golarion versus a player's option book of the Feywild and a remake of controversial 3.0 book, hard to not see Paizo taking the #1 spot this quarter.
Bill Dunn |
I'm not really sure that ICv2's data should be taken as that accurate, where we could really know that FFG had actually overtaken WotC if 40K did take the number 2 spot. For the past couple of years, the overwhelming majority of WotC's stuff has been via DDI, which ICv2 does NOT track. In fact, it wouldn't suprised me if 4E still has more players and does more business overall than Pathfinder...just mainly in venues that ICv2 doesn't track.
We have no reason to believe it's not accurate for its target audience either. The target audience is specialty stores like game stores and comic book shops trying to stay on top of trends, the very groups (including distributors and manufacturers) that are surveyed.
Urizen |
Gorbacz wrote:I can't see a "we're working on a new edition" as a big motivator for investing in 4E.No, but will it be a big enough disincentive for D&D to drop behind Dark Heresy and co?
It'll be even more interesting to observe since FFG has the current license for Star Wars. I've not been following announcements as to when any of those will be unveiled, though.
Kthulhu |
It'll be even more interesting to observe since FFG has the current license for Star Wars. I've not been following announcements as to when any of those will be unveiled, though.
Meh. It'd rather have a fifth 40K RPG, covering the orks. Core book and product line could be called Waaagh. A big huge supplement on weapons could be called More Dakka!. And the supplement on orc technology, especially vehicles, could be called Da Red Wunz Go Fasta! Such an RPG line would vault FFG over Paizo and WotC to become the greatest RPG company EVER!
Dale McCoy Jr Jon Brazer Enterprises |
It also doesn't count book distributors
You mean like Borders? *crickets*
B&N doesn't look all that healthy. They're talking about splitting off the Nook to insulate it from whatever happens with the store itself. Sure there's Amazon (where the Pathfinder Core Rulebook is #2 and the 4E PHB is #9 in the gaming category).
At the end of the day ICv2 isn't 100% accurate, but it is the best measuring stick we have at the moment. So the industry goes with it.
Steve Geddes |
Steve Geddes wrote:It also doesn't count book distributorsYou mean like Borders? *crickets*
B&N doesn't look all that healthy. They're talking about splitting off the Nook to insulate it from whatever happens with the store itself.
I mean the people who sell to borders.
The health of the bookstores isn't very important (though, fwiw, the bookstore I buy from is a tiny little Australian chain, I've never seen a Barnes and noble). The point was that (apparently) WoTC sell a significant proportion of their RPGs through book distributors (and target?) who aren't counted. Paizo's subscribers aren't counted either (though what "interviews with publishers" entails is anyone's guess), which is a factor in the other direction - judging a "best seller" from sales in a minority of the market isn't good practice (when the markets are so disparate). By not counting paizo's subscribers, for example ICv2 is probably excluding a significant portion of the PF-completionists since they're probably more likely to subscribe rather than purchase through a hobby store. Another significant problem is that all stores don't use the same metric in providing feedback - does a sale of gamma world count as "D&D"? How about one of the boardgames?
IMO, in statistics, a flawed measuring stick is worse than none. It might be useful for a gamestore to decide what to stock or what the latest trends are in their industry. It's not useful for sorting out who sold most (other than in the most coarse of ways - its a tribute to paizo that it's even possible for them to outsell WoTC, irrespective of whether they actually do or not).
Dale McCoy Jr Jon Brazer Enterprises |
It might be useful for a gamestore to decide what to stock
Its not even good for that, frankly. Every game store is a special snowflake. A good example is my local game store owner. He is confounded by the fact that Paizo is #1. I kid you not, he has some copies of We Be Goblins from Free RPG Day with a sign underneath it that says, "Free, Take One." Why? Pathfinder doesn't sell there. The big RPG there is 4E. He carries some Pathfinder (including my own products) but not much.
I know one game store that stocks deep in Call of Cthulhu. But those are isolated incidents. You are right, it is a good measure of trend, but that is all it is treated as.
That and bragging rights.
TwoWolves |
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I have yet to see a Borders, Barnes & Noble or a Books-a-Million carry only D&D and no Pathfinder products. Claiming that somehow excluding these retailers from the equation unfairly helps Paizo's numbers is a non-starter in my book.
Now excluding DDI and Paizo direct subscribers/PDF numbers IS relevant, but my gut tells me the difference between the two isn't enough to account for a change in places on the list.
Majesticmoose |
TwoWolves wrote:Yeah, claiming that would be silly.
I have yet to see a Borders, Barnes & Noble or a Books-a-Million carry only D&D and no Pathfinder products. Claiming that somehow excluding these retailers from the equation unfairly helps Paizo's numbers is a non-starter in my book.
What I would say is that these "polls" that ICV runs are very dubious. For a lot of reasons.
Certainly good job PF, the line is working very well, and I am very impressed with the quality of product that comes out.
But we as an audience do not know how accurate these polls are at all.
First off, few companies, especially big comanies, ever release sales information this specific. So borders (RIP) and B&N, and othe rlarge sellers are probably excluded. Same with Amazon (though at least they have some indicators on individual page).
And from one smaller FLGS to another, opinions can vary. A lot. Up until the most recent product, My FLGS that I sometimes work for couldn't keep new 4e products on the shelves. And they had sold through most all of teh PF supplies, so they weren't really selling any PF because of poor ordering. So our sales aren't really representative of any accurate demand.
Again, I like PF work and dig the quality, and I agree that it probably is #1 right now (whoo) but I wouldn't put too much stock into these quarterly reports. I'd pay attention to the enies, the origins, etc. that's a populartity contest too, but one with a much broader base.
*Two copper left on table*
Edit: Oh! There is no indicator at all of the international sales for any of this. So...yeah. Very dubious of these "guess who's number 1 today..."
Gorbacz |
I'd pay attention to the enies, the origins, etc. that's a populartity contest too, but one with a much broader base.
*Two copper left on table*
The "Pathfinder wins almost every category it is nominated in" Ennies that have been running for the last 2 years or so? :)
Robert Hawkshaw |
Purple Pawn has a survey out, pathfinder outselling D&D 2 to 1.
http://www.purplepawn.com/category/rpgs/
or
http://www.enworld.org/forum/news/319003-purple-pawn-s-2011-game-industry-s urvey.html
Steve Geddes |
Purple Pawn has a survey out, pathfinder outselling D&D 2 to 1.
http://www.purplepawn.com/category/rpgs/
or
http://www.enworld.org/forum/news/319003-purple-pawn-s-2011-game-industry-s urvey.html
Thanks for this - a far superior survey than the ICv2, in my view. In no small part because they're up front about their methodology and results. The similar information for ICv2 is far more difficult to track down.
Really interesting, cheers.