Also, it's highly likely that if Cheliax pushed far enough east, Qadira and the Padishah Empire would mobilize to stop them. And while the might of Cheliax is grand indeed, it pales in comparison to what the Empire can bring to bear.
I would not be so sure of that. The Empire is hardly known for being centralized. Obviously, it would be in the Satrap Xerbystes (sp?) of Quadira's interest to hold the line against Cheliax, but would it be in the interest of his allies (if he even has any) in Casmaron to come to his aide?
I think of the Padishah Empire as something as massive and defunct as the late Soviet Union, a loose confederation of mostly autonomous states with varying ethnicity ruled over by a small number of elites loyal to the Emperor who likely could not organize anything without a huge hulaballoo from the native population. But we haven't really heard all that much about the empire at all, except the little blurbs to infer from in the Qadira companion.
Fleets need ports to operate out of. They be where we go to reprovision with food and grog, to get sailcloth for new sails and to acquire lumber for the carpenters who patch any holes our vessels may acquire during combat to work their craft with. They be where we go to recaulk our vessels with pitch, acquire spiffy new paint schemes to make our boats sail faster, and to make tribute to the Pirate Queen, Besmara, in thanks for surviving another few months at sea. They be where we cap'ns go to acquire the latest flashy enchanted scimitars, and where the scurvy cabin boys go to replace the cutlasses they dropped in over-excitement into the ocean's depths during that boarding action off the coast of southern Garund.
And they be where the crew goes to seek some rest and recreation with saucy wenches in dockside taverns and houses of good repute. Blast it, we can't all afford to pay the proper tithes to Besmara and to keep a high priestess of Nocticula and attendants aboard ship too.
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This thread is full of win.
@Turin: yay!
Re: Cheliax vs. Da Pirates of Stormy Water. Why fight? They want trade routes, people to pirate, and the freedom to dictate their own actions. Give them (better yet, SELL them, preferably with Diabolical Contracts Signed) Letters of Marque authorizing them, as Privateers of Imperial Cheliax, to raid, sink, and kill Andoran, Korvosan, Magnimarian, or other nations' vessels.
Re: The Empire of Man. Seems to me that "clerics" who hide behind steel masks and offer godless praises should be ripe for infiltration. Inquisitors, Clerics, Oracles, Wizards, Sorcerers, and similar Asmodeus-worshipping folks would serve as excellent Rahadoumi "Priests." With the proper backstopping, they would be welcomed with open arms, and within a few generations that steel mask just may have some 5-pointed star decorations, methinks.
Re: Korvosa & Magnimar. The only reason Cheliax has not already taken these cities is lack of resources. Well, that plus the distances involved. That seems like a PERFECT job for your SpecWar division (read, PC's). Small groups, capable of launching asymmetric warfare and generating all sorts of chaos, fit nicely into the role of "advance forces." They seed the city for the Empire to become "the good guy," righting wrongs and winning hearts and minds the whole way through.
Re: Andoran. Seems like they're only a charismatic Evil leader away from becoming enemy #1 for a BUNCH of nations. It sure would be a shame if some unknown "hero" shows up to become the Abolitionist King, and just happens to be a diabolical plant all along (possessed, cursed, bribed, tricked, however you like). Imagine if George Washington said "Yes, I would love to be your new King!"
Re: The River Kingdoms. Leaving aside the plot from Kingmaker (since the AP's don't count as canon, right?), there's a LOT of resources up there, just waiting to be hammered into a cohesive force. If Brevoy becomes reunited, or someone manages to consolidate, say, The Stolen Lands, Pitax, or some of the other smaller communities, that's a significant fighting force. Being used to the terrain and irregular warfare tactics just add to their viability.
Long story short, with some long term strategic planning, entirely ruthless insertion of covert "sleeper" agents, and proper use of the diabolical resources at her disposal, Cheliax could conceivably become Aggressor (covertly) AND Defender (openly) of Golarion WWI. Bonus points go to them if they can make Andoran out to be the Nazis!
I love how you all seem to think Cheliax is the only nation who has charismatic folk among it's populace.
Now, normally, if a nation was planning some sort of multi-pronged attack, it would be done in utter secret, and unless agents or communications were intercepted, you'd never know until it was too late.
However, this is a fantasy setting, ripe with magic. Which means all sorts of means exist to steal information that's meant to be secret.
and sure, Cheliax probably has their agents out there, attempting to sow the seeds of Diabloism, but I guarantee other nations also have their own agents inside Cheliax, trying to topple the Infernal order, and rouse some chaos.
As to whether the Padishah Empire is centralized enough to counter a Cheliaxian invasion, war or attacks on your soil are great ways to get your people together. Its the whole "my brother and I might fight each other, but pick on him and we'll both kick your ass". Its why some people think American leaders allowed Pearl Harbor to be attacked. WWII was taking place on the other side of the Atlantic, and while horrific atrocities were being inflicted on the Jews and Hitler was trying to conqueror his own empire, Americans at the time didn't really care. They had an entire ocean between them, and felt very secure in their apparent safety. When Pearl Harbor was sneak attacked, Americans were like "O rly? F with us, and we will F you over big time. You took out our naval base, fine. We'll help end your stupid war, and then just to be the bigger jerks, drop a pair of nuclear bombs on two of Japan's cities." The same thing happened after 9/11. We all said "Oh hell no Bin-Laden, now we gonna git ur ass." and then we went into Afghanistan and made them our b%~#%. 10 yrs later, we capped Bin-Laden in his head and threw his ass into the ocean.
Now imagine Cheliax marching across and conquering Andoran, and them moving into Taldor, the nation Qadira borders. All of a sudden, it looks like Casmaron might be invaded. So a few charismatic leaders move among the people, stirring up the their patriotic spirits. "We may fight among ourselves, and we may not like our Emperor, but we be DAMNED if we're going to let some foreign wench of a queen even THINK she'll be able to defeat our people.!!"
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One of the joys of this is the "what would Queen Abrigail want"? That's the linchpin of the whole concept. I don't think any one is positing that Cheliax is guaranteed to succeed in their campaigns, only that they will certainly stack the deck in their favor as much as possible.
The pseudo-Germany with better geogrpahy is an apt enough analogy to build from. Plans are made, starting with the strategic objective then working down the scale to nail down as many details as are feasible.
Several elements work in favor of the aggressor with purpose, chiefly the element of surprise in combination with having established the logistics in advance of the outbreak of hostilities. If the preparatory schemes backfire or don't go as well as expected, adjustments are made based on the intelligence gathered. Time lines for aggression are delayed. Until the big moment of full commitment has come to pass, there is no need to push the big red button.
There are some excellent ideas from everyone here, both for and against Cheliax as the aggressor state.
Some other thoughts to consider are the dispositions of the other major nation-states. Rahadoum is not going to be ignored one way or the other. Infiltration, misdirection, ideally full-on agitation to act against the "eastern misers and their sun orchid elixir derived wealth, kowtowing to Gawds unworthy of worship!" Rahadoum properly motivated could potentially be 'directed' against the Garundi powers to the east, especially if the 'right outside your grasp' promise of immense wealth there 'ripe for the taking' is coupled with propaganda painting that as a solution to Rahadoumi woes. "Arc" #1 for PCs (for or against).
The letters of marquee are an ideal solution to the thorny problem of the pirates of The Shackles. Depending on how well the "operation" is carried out this will largely secure the western seas and the Inner Sea from their depradations. Arc #2 for PCs, even a one-shot.
Varisian operations and securing the interests of the Umbral Court - arc #3.
Espionage, intrigue and infiltration of Absolom, Andoran, Taldor and the eastern satrapies - lots of arcs, 4 at a guess.
The infiltration into Galt and the River Kingdoms (KM notwithstanding) are an arc unto themselves say, #8.
The "hobbit pogrom" and its many twists and turns - #9.
Setting the stage for open war - the big bang. All of the nine arcs' players and results would determine of open war is even declared by - or perhaps even against - Cheliax. After all, if two or three of the 4th-7th arcs go badly, this may be enough incentive to light a fire under the respective nations' derriers to begin their own preparations for war...
Dot. Thank you all SO much for all the interesting fantasy politics. I've been thinking about some fun intrigue for when the PCs can go anywhere with a spell. This stuff will be great fuel for some ideas.
Breel-yunt!
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Um everyone, I'd like to make a few points.
1. Galt has no offical miltiary nor is the Red Reveloution welcomed by anyone. the nation is literally easy to conquer, but impossable to hold onto in it's current state as over several governments have proven. one of them even being a general who implimented martial law and manditory conscription, only to be killed by a firing squad of his own men.
2. in discussing Nidal and Chelax one nation has been left out of the discussion Molthune.
Molthune is a LN military olgarchy and territorial expansionaist state. they are currently at war with colition of Nermithas because they cannot expand in any other direction. they are listed as having a massive, effective, effecent, war machine. The only reason Nermathas has not been conquered is that Molthune cannot hold the forests against the gurrilla fighters.
More importantly the military aches to take a good swing at Nidal, Isger, and Chelax because it shares a border with the first two nations and because Molthune was the first state to rebel against Chelax.
Only the three of them combined with the mountian range keep Molthune's military industrial complex from marching south. I concidered a Golarian war, and where the military might of molthune falls will make a big diffrence.
let me elaborate.
if Chelax ties it's army up on forgien campains the High Commander of Mothune (a masterful general in both military and ecnomic matters by all accounts) will likely take a swing at Nidal.
Isiger CANNOT help chelax in it's current state, it's military is still recovering from the goblin wars, and if monthune struck at Nidal it would have to march right through Isiger claiming territory along the way. how far they get into Nidal is debatable, but on the planes of Isiger neither Chelax nor Nidall could dislodge Molthune.
The Molthuni Military is not a just a professional force, it is a Miltiary Industirial Complex moblized into at a state of Total War on a national scale. they don't just bring massive troop numbers and military engineers to the fight, they bring Lawful Lycanthrops (including by some accounts Miltiarily trained and armored werewolves and werebears.), Centuars, State Sponsored Druids, Spec-ops rangers, and Mages trained and the Acadamy of Military Magic.
about 65% of molthune is under arms at any given time, in war this can be pushed to full mobilization.
Markwan Teldas also has the same benefit that Evans pointed out, when he says mobilize the General Lords say "How High?" unlike Abagal his people love him and respect him as well as fear him. meaning that with a Military like that and overwhelming Public Support anyways in the long run Molthune might be able to outlast Chelax in a slugfest on it's own.
The Nermathians are too disorganized to mount an attack on the Molthuni homeland. likely only Fort Ramgate would come under more sustained attack, but molthune has built the place into a nigh impenitrible fortress.
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oh and in andorian don't discount the Eagle Knights and Twilight Talons, they've given Chelax more bloody noses on land and sea than I can count.
Chelax has fought the pirates of the shackles already, twice, once to crush them, and one to take back Sargaviga who paid the pirates for protection.
both times the pirates triumphed, because they can navigate the Eye of Abendigo, and the horrific storms that spring from it. The first time the Chelaxians and their devil enhanced navy fought in those waters they actually got sucked into the blasted thing and blown to driftwood.
the second time they were more cautious, but they still couldn't win and lost twice the men and ships.
All the Hurricane King had to do to unite the pirates both times was point them in the right direction tell them they could keep whatever they took from the Chelaxian Armada.
so far it's 0-2 in the favor of the pirates, and even Chelax isn't made of money.
As had already been discussed, the Chelish Navy has no desire to go for "strike three" in the Eye of Abendengo unless they feel there is no alternative strategically. They control the 'strait of Gibraltar' of the Inner Sea region already. It is far easier to secure this passage than to strike at the Shackles.
While the strength of a navy is its fleet the weakness of a navy are its ports. The pirates have far fewer shipyards that operate on a MUCH smaller scale and have mediocre to poor logistics compared to the Chelish Navy. Were the latter to seek to 'deal' with the Shackles pirates, they would not waste time seeking out the pirates - they would directly strike at every port that they could with the intent of burning them to ruin. If the pirates have no safe haven, they effectively wither on the vine. They might get the bright idea to go out in a blaze of glory. Most likely some do while the rest scatter across the high seas to places that they are NOT wanted DOA.
Another consideration undertaken before the fleet would even bother to set sail is that numerous divinations and arcane consultations would take place behind the scenes, along with copious scryings et al. If the higher powers indicate that Besmara Herself has some say in the affairs of that region Sargova is little more than a reinforced staging point for 'true' Imperial forces.
Molthune last I heard was Cheliax's minion, not its foe. It is at least an order of magnitude smaller compared to its 'parent' and bereft of Cheliax's unique assets. Its goals are pretty clear - and it is just a matter of "when" and "against whom" Molthune goes to war, regardless of anything else. In that region Cheliax has a willing and eager ally available. My point in earlier posts was not that Cheliax would act against Molthune - they would act in concert WITH Molthune.
Think of Molthune's campaign as the "Spanish Civil War" just preceeding the outbreak of WW2 in Europe to picture where I'd see it developing. :)
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Molthune isn't a Cheliaxian ally, it was the first state to break away, but to hold out against the devils turned into a warlike military state when house Thrune came to power.
It's right there in their entry in the setting guide. "the lands of shadows and devils to the south is a bees nest that the lord generals long to knock down, but the chelaxian military, though weakened is still rivals their own, and mountians present as much of an offencive hinderance as they do a defencive boon."
The focus of Molthuni agression were it to march soulth it's been implied would be Nidal.
on the matter of the divine
Andorian (or at least her eagle knights) are backed by a power from mount celestria under the table. their navy also rivals chelax's in the water.
Molthune has Abadar and Gorum at it's back (and the militant Chaplans)
Radahoum has archons, demons, devils, and more, because it;s an athiest state it's nuteral ground for outsiders who don't want their masters meddling in deals.
also Cheliax still doesn't have complete control of it's own terriroty I know of at least one that holds out because when the army comes they mount a resistance and "fly away" somehow when things go bad.
lastly Cheliax is still sliding backward into decay the devils are propping up a dying empire, they slowed it's death, they did not prevent it.
"and so Cheliax continues it's downward slide, slowly, for what has been centuries, and will likely be centuries more."
in short they are not presented as an unstobbable juggernaught with devil power (you can certanly make them one if you want your heroes to oppose it star wars style.)
their army relies on their devils heavily to prop up the otherwise decaying and faltering military machine. not to mention every noble in the land schemes to kill abagal and take her place as king/queen.
a world war would be possable but Cheliax would not be able to steamroll into Andorian like the nazi's did france.
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Vulpae is right about Molthune. The first of their neighbors that presents them with a weak point is going to get attacked for massive damage. :) And they have no trust whatsoever in Cheliax.
Also I think you're overestimating the ability to infiltrate or ally with Rahadoum. They're paranoid and obsessed with suppressing outside influence, and they've got lots of experience with flushing it out. While it would be amusingly ironic if Cheliax were able to infiltrate them with diabolic agents, the chances of discovery would be immense. Their likely reaction would be to double-down on their isolationism. So while they're unlikely to fall in with Cheliax's enemies, they'll be useless as any sort of strategic staging ground for an offensive on Garund.
As to the Shackles: how are you going to destroy pirate ports on a string of islands without first establishing naval supremacy? That would be a heck of a logistical feat.
In addition, Nirmathas's success against Molthnue demonstrates the efficacy of insurgent warfare. Any place Cheliax intends to conquer, they'll be faced with severe insurgency. Their best strategy against it will have to be utter ruthlessness in subjugating and genociding uncooperative populations. Otherwise, they'll be facing decade-long quagmires that will degrade their military and bankrupt the treasury.
The downside of that approach is that it will:
A. suck up a ton of military resources that will be unavailable for offensive operations
B. severely retard the economic gains from newly-conquered territory, as it has to be resettled with friendly Chelish colonists before it will start turning any kind of profit
C. Encourage not-yet-conquered areas to fight with extreme tenacity to avoid the same fate
and D. Likely inspire alliances among the various good-leaning countries
to oppose Chelaxian atrocities.
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if any nation's going to go on the warpath it's Taldor. the future queen and right now a princess is planning to reform at home and reclaim it's glory, and to get the decadent nobles and tangled buracratic mass out of the way, she's going to throw them into a war of expansion.
the direction she'd go is sketchy.
but when Grand Emperor Stefan VII dies war is inevitible in the east.
Kewl stuff everyone. It's been a looong time since perusing my campaign hardcover, from the look of things there has been a fair bit of revision.
Taldor - after seeing the new information - is the more likely major aggressor. It would not be the only one though. Qadira and Andoran are Taldor's major power neighbors. Her Majesty's future plans likely are aimed north at Galt and perhaps even the River Kingdoms and/or East into the steppes of Casomir.
After all, Galt is an unstable mess that publicly may well be seen as a destabilizing influence that a sufficient force should steamroll. If the Taldans play their cards right they will be seen as liberators and a strong force for stability and peace. Colonization via a Taldan version of "40 acres and a mule" into Cassomir is probably VERY desirable in the long-term.
If the expansionist soon-to-be Queen is patient, they could be in the lead for a land grab by the major powers of the Inner Sea region. Qadira as I recall is the only other power in any position to directly compete.
If we take the tack of "era of colonialism", all the major powers - leery of waging open war - may follow the lead. Cheliax would compete with Rahadoum, Andoran and perhaps "Switzerland" in Garund. There is of course inevitably going to be some one setting sail to the west seeking to circumnavigate directly to Cassomir ... they can run into that mysterious continent instead of Cassomir. :)
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Arcadia... the western contanant across the sea is known as Arcadia, the Ulfen already found it and set up Valenhall a quasi magical sanctuary a bit like valhala, where ulfen heroes pilgrimage to when they are growing old. it's got one foot on Golarion and the other on Elysium.
it was only thanks to these vallent warriors and the quasi-magical powers of the norns that it survived the native humans that the ulfen pissed off somehow.
nobody but ulfen and a few mordent spire elves made it to Arcadia so far. the common man might not know much about it, but most nations know Arcadia is out there.
the problem is twofold.
First off the shattered remains of Azlant are in the way jutting cliffs, spires and mazelike ruins inhabited by feral Abloths, vicious Sea Elves, Skrum, Gillmen and other more abberant monsters.
Taldor once lost a colony there at the height of it's power known as "The Sun Temple Colony" as it was founded by people from the vassal state of Andorian (they were vassals to Taldor, then Cheliax, before gaining their independance.) they were washed ashore by storms and an anchent Azlanti sun temple that provided safty and stability, while no details are given of exactly what happened, messages were fine, then sporadic, then stopped completely.
the last message was gibberish about "a weeping gate" and "the inner eye in the mind of us all" further investigation was stopped by Andodian, Cheliax, and other states rebelling against taldor.
strange lights still flicker and glow at the temple colony, the mystery is unsolved.
sorry got carried away there...
Secondly The Eye of Abendigo and pirates in the south prevents anyone from going around by that route. the people of the south don't have the ambition at the moment to goo looking west for themselves.
it's be interisting to try to get to arcadia, the pathfinder socity would go bonkers for knowlage like that
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As another note, unlike the Americas, there are no indications that the natives of Arcadia are prone to catching diseases from Avistan, less technologically developed, or particularly friendly. So any colonization may be...somewhat more difficult.
As might colonization of Southern Garund, actually. The indications actually seem to be that, while the Mwangi Expanse is a bit less developed technologically and less centralized culturally than, say, Cheliax (allowing Sargava as it is), there are large, organized, empires in Southern Garund with technological and magical parity with Cheliax or other avistani nations...so colonialism isn't gonna really fly there either.
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I would not be so sure of that. The Empire is hardly known for being centralized. Obviously, it would be in the Satrap Xerbystes (sp?) of Quadira's interest to hold the line against Cheliax, but would it be in the interest of his allies (if he even has any) in Casmaron to come to his aide?
I think of the Padishah Empire as something as massive and defunct as the late Soviet Union, a loose confederation of mostly autonomous states with varying ethnicity ruled over by a small number of elites loyal to the Emperor who likely could not organize anything without a huge hulaballoo from the native population. But we haven't really heard all that much about the empire at all, except the little blurbs to infer from in the Qadira companion.
actually according to the campain setting book The Padishah Empire of Kelesh is more analogous of the Ottoman Empire at it's height of power. it once battled Iobaria to the north and Taldor to the west for territory. it triumphed and has been the "big dog" in Casmaron for centuries, the way it works is that the Sataraps work as sattlite states but they do not have their own military forces. all military forces actually serve the Padishah Sultan (Emperor to westerners). Only he can authorize a mobilization. The Empire of Kelesh is by no means defunct... yet... Taymijun a hero of the northern nomads is believed to be destened to destroy the empire, but he has to be reborn first. and "will be reborn in an era of broken prophcey" so since the death of Androgen and the fall of the Xia Empire the Sultans are becoming more and more parinoid.
At the moment a good deal of their military is either combing the north for Taymijun or fighting the horrors that come out of rovagug's prision (they've been more active lately.)the Empire still has stuff like bound genies capable of immense power, and legions of magical, mundane, and exotic troops.
they are a massive nation that puts down stuff like Tarrasques and Behemoths on a yearly basis. that's why the Padishah Sultan doesn't let Quaria start a fight with Taldor. it can't afford a third front of war and expansion at the moment. it can defend itself but is disinclined to expand further westward.
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As another note, unlike the Americas, there are no indications that the natives of Arcadia are prone to catching diseases from Avistan, less technologically developed, or particularly friendly. So any colonization may be...somewhat more difficult.
As might colonization of Southern Garund, actually. The indications actually seem to be that, while the Mwangi Expanse is a bit less developed technologically and less centralized culturally than, say, Cheliax (allowing Sargava as it is), there are large, organized, empires in Southern Garund with technological and magical parity with Cheliax or other avistani nations...so colonialism isn't gonna really fly there either.
actually Starvagia has proven otherwise, their treatment of natives is horrible but if not for the pirates bleeding them dry they'd be powerful and rich, especally if they had a mother nation supporting them.
Moreover while shaman, witchdoctors, and isolated pockets are advanced, the average Mawagani tribe is kind of primitive.they seem to be advanced in the escotaric arts (Magic, Theology, Art, Culture, Construction) and each group varies widely, but like the Kellid Culture in the north they lack good Metalurgy and the Basic Sciences. these are people who carve beautiful homes from giant trees, know the ways of the primal hunt, and once built flying cities and gateways to other worlds from stone and muscle. Yet their current tribes can't build a boat strong enough to sail beyond half a mile from shore, or forge iron into anything bigger than a knife, not that they couldn't they just haven't. Nessicity is the mother of invention, and the Mwagani tribesman can feed himself easily with a spear, brains, and a bit of good luck.
Arcadians (at least those the ulfen encountered) are still on the primal level of tech and magic because as far as I can tell their lands yield them all they need, so they've barely moved beyond the hunter gatherer stage. but they have the homecourt advantage.
They actually did suffer from imported diseases, part of why they attacked the Ulfen in the first place as far as I can tell. But the Ulfen fought well with magic and sword and eventually the disease thinned the native ranks. both sides came to a truce or somthing, details are sketchy.
OH I JUST FOUND SOMETHING!
Andorian has a large colony named Elesomare that focuses on Agricultural and Lumbering.
Cheliax has two smaller ones a gold mine operation named "Canorus" and a slave port named "Anchor's End"
that's all that's mentioned
Colonization just became even more profitable if a way can be found, with various precedents alreay in place (Kingmaker, Jade Regent, skull n Shackles). Discovering something worth enough to invest that kind of capitol into is key. Based on the presence of several Avistani colonies there must be *something* worthwhile.
But what? :)
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from what I've read Turin... the natives never exploted Arcadia's natural bounty for one. the lands there are... from all acounts stunningly beautiful, Primal, Rich, and almost completely untapped.
other detailed stuff hasn't meen mentioned yet as far as I know, I think Serpant folk also live from the southern jungles of Arcadia but I've got nothing to back it up but that fact that they are mentioned as having had an empire "South of Azlant" and the eastern ones being so soundly beaten that they were removed from history by their human foes. the last civilized ones isolated to a little island somewhere south of the shackles or small enclaves in hidden parts of the world.
Aztec and Mayan themes anyone?
oh I think this Foxy monk is drooling over a potental new adventure path
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actually Starvagia has proven otherwise, their treatment of natives is horrible but if not for the pirates bleeding them dry they'd be powerful and rich, especally if they had a mother nation supporting them.
Moreover while shaman, witchdoctors, and isolated pockets are advanced, the average Mawagani tribe is kind of primitive.
I specifically mentioned that it did work like that in the Mwangi and Sargava. The rest of Garund is another story.
Indeed, as is mentioned on p. 207 of the Inner Sea World guide, as you go south past the Mwangi, you run into at least three major empires, all seemingly powerful and advanced (the Azata-worshipping Dhrukhani with their crystal towers, the dinosaur-riding Lizard folk of Droon, and the powerful matriarchal nation of Holomog, which is able to project power as far north as Geb [not that that's worked out well for them, but it implies organization and power]).
Arcadians (at least those the ulfen encountered) are still on the primal level of tech and magic because as far as I can tell their lands yield them all they need, so they've barely moved beyond the hunter gatherer stage. but they have the homecourt advantage.
They actually did suffer from imported diseases, part of why they attacked the Ulfen in the first place as far as I can tell. But the Ulfen fought well with magic and sword and eventually the disease thinned the native ranks. both sides came to a truce or somthing, details are sketchy.
This is indeed true of those the Ulfen encountered...but that was 5,000 years ago. I'm sorta betting that the disease thing is gone as a factor, and while the technolgical gap may still exist somewhat, I'd be shocked if it was as great as it was between Europeans and Native Americans when America was first colonized.
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I didn't know about tthose three empires actually, thanks for the details! I didn't know what was south of Mwagani
oh and hell no Deadman, that tech-gap isn't bone and stone VS steel anymore, it's about somewhere Bronze VS Steel.
Ulfen are probably trading with the native arcadians.
The Norns also make their home in Valenholme and likely know how to handle interactions with the natives far better than the first colonists I think. They are after all the only beings still able to make prophicies that work now that Androden is dead, and were resposable for bringing great wealth to the Ulfen, and holding back baba-yaga in Irrisen (that is, keeping her from pushing any farther than she already got in the first 32 days.)
I was perusing a 700-page AAR for Hearts of Iron when it struck me that with slight modifications to the game engine and the necessary graphics overhaul (new map, new sprite packs) we could actually play out "Cheliax at War" on our various computers.
This would be a blast!
There are plenty of agencies agitating against the status quo in most of the states of both known continents. Those who are in power, like in real life, want to preserve the status quo because it generally favors them - and they want to agitate against the status quo elsewhere because that would favor them while harming their perceived foes.
The fun part is speculating about where the sparks fly that finally ignite a larger conflagration than the norm. :)
House Thrune is settling its own affairs. Sooner more likely than later Cheliax seems likely to want a 'quick and easy war', perhaps several smaller ones in rapid succession, to expand the realm and bring its wayward colonies back into the fold. Hints of this are already made throughout the later APs.
Taldor is agitating for a new Crusade, no question. They're in a bit of a pickle with having Andoran on one side and Quadira on the other, tossing Galt onto their northern side for extra spice.
Quadira is itching for casus belli against Taldor.
Galt is of course ripe for the pickings ala sunbeam's observation.
Depending on how one spins the APs into one's campaign, the River Kingdoms are either still a fragmented mess, have lost the Stolen Lands to one sovereign or another or have been largely united into a single, pair or trio of sovereigns on Galt's northern border.
In terms of "what would a 'Heroes of Iron' game start like", there are several excellent possibilities.
Using the engine to play out consolidation of the River Kingdoms and/or Galt on the smaller scale could be a lot of fun. They're both a tangled mess. Or, one could stipulate that the rising force in that region is none other than a certain historical figure of the area.
Instead of technological research the research would be in refining the capabilities of the Heroes of the Realm. Submarines would be apparati of Kwalish with various improvements or other submersible constructs. Carriers and their CAGs would be high-level Adventurer Companies or certain singularly very powerful entities such as Baba Yaga, Choral the Conqueror and the like. "Lesser" capitol ships could be used to represent either singularly powerful Heroes of the Realm or equivalent monstrous forces - giants, fiends/celestials, etc - while the regular naval vessels are basically troop transports, "logistics" (background transports and escorts to maintain line of supply across water instead of land) and destroyers.
Aircraft mechanics would represent flight-capable units - expensive to develop, expensive to field ... and quite effective. Monstrous flying units would be used to model dive bombers, tactical bombers and at the high end strategic bombers. Dragons, manticores, wyverns, chimerae, ad nauseam. Adventurer Companies on flying carpets or hippogriffs or griffons - the Red Sable Rangers of Korvosa, for example can probably substitute nicely for dive bombers. Fighters in a similar vein. Air transport (flying carpets) capable of "paradrops" would be tied to their infantry units instead of being used seperately, so this would change the coding for that element. A *VERY* expensive brigade - same cost as air transports, but attached as a brigade instead of carrying the division. If the division buys the farm, so does the brigade.
Artillery brigades would represent attached siege engines - Alkenstar for example would have a "home advantage" on actual artillery in the form of cannon but given that the area suffers considerably from lacking magical goodies IIRC, their "technology" is their only real advantage. Nothing like a war to accelerate development I suppose!
Motorized / mechanized infantry would probably have to be removed, although the early bits of motorized research could be used to represent variations of heavy cavalry as compared to the cavalry in HoI - which is pretty decent when you're not going up against armor.
Armor would become constructs or similarly hard-hitting things, perhaps differing in nomenclature and graphics by nation or regional grouping. Similar to carriers/CAGs, armor and some of the brigades could reflect certain powerful and costly-to-field forces quite nicely.
Major Powers are well known and are probably fairly closely matched individually. Making the diplomacy work to fashion alliances would be pretty key, as would either bringing the smaller states into the fold or at least making them friendlier / less inclined to stab you. Then of course there's the fun stuff of Galt, the River Kingdoms, Brevoy, Belkzen, Razmiran ... who knows.
One scenario of course are the Runelords re-emerging, forging Thassilon anew [Germany as it were]. Choral does his thing in the east [Japan]. Cheliax does there thing [Soviet Union]. The rest of the world reacts accordingly...
EDIT: Nukes are the Spawn of Rovagug.
I am actually doing this very thing in my ongoing Pathfinder campaigns. It all started due to the way my group's Council of Thieves campaign ended, with the instigation of a civil war where Westcrown desired to break free of Cheliax.
It was all made possible by two events, one in the players' control and one outside of their control. During CoT the players sought to seed a long-term rebellion against the Thrune aristocracy. In doing so, they sent out diplomatic envoys to various nations with vested interests in crushing Diabolic Thrune. Andoran (liberty-motivated), Rahadouam (removal of devil-worship/PCs offered to get the Chelish colony off the tip of their nation), Taldor (have some of the country when you're done/free trade passage through the Arch of Aroden).
It all worked wonders, and the real tipping point came when the PCs were able to achieve both a Storm of Vengeance and an Earthquake that demolished the Chelish fleet sent to "restore order' at teh end of Council of Thieves. The event (and the resulting collateral damage) was not entirely their doing, nor did the city connect the dots to them, so they were never blamed for the deaths that followed).
In the resulting chaos/destabilization, they requested ships from Andoran, Rahadouam and Taldor to help defend their location while the PCs prepared Westcrown for a ground offensive/seige. An alliance was formed with the Stryx (help us defeat Cheliax and we'll give you your own land/make sure you don't get bothered/enslaved anymore) for aerial support.
All in all the war has been going on for 30 years in game, with Razmiran joining the Wiscrani side under very secretive/specific pretenses (and acting as field-medics to Andoran soldiers, in a case of bloody irony).
There's a time-travel element to my current campaign, so a lot of the historic moments are being re-visited and the flow of the war is shifting/changing based on their actions.
You can find a timeline of how I had it play out here. The timeline has some intentional gaps/vague information in it at present.
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Honestly, I think that if cheliax is to grow, it'll try to go up north, toward varisia. It already tried (and failed) to colonise it, so in that regard it's as much of a target as vidrian or andoran. The fact that the land is "untamed" mean that for them, colonising it is absolutely "within their right", and I always had that feeling that the cheliax considered varisia as basically "already ours, they just don't know it yet".
Finaly, the returns of the runelords sorshen and belimarius, and the fact that belimarius is actively trying to build an empire (or at least a nation) is probably the last thing that'll push house thrune to action. I always thought that the reason why the cheliax didn't really tried to invade varisia was because they thought that they had all the time in the world, the land is "untamed", it'll still be in a decade, we just have to wait for a bit until the scazni finish rotting magnimar and korsova to the core, and the population beg for our return. However, the looming threat of another ruler "taking their prize" and unifying varisia under her country before them change thing, and now cheliax must act if they want to own varisia at all, otherwise they might find themselves unable to expand.
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I wrote elsewhere positing that taldor is the natural and inevitable enemy of Cheliax - Cheliax desperately trying to arrest its decline, and Taldor on the upswing with a new reformist monarch and relatively calm relations with Qadira (considering it's Qadira). But I do like the idea that at least one place Cheliax is going to be competing for influence in is Varisia.
Even if they don't annex it, having Thrune-friendly powers in the region would offset the fact that the nearest major southern port, Kintargo, just became independent. Plus, while pissing off Taldor, Andoran or Rahadoum might provoke actions by others, New Thassilon seems to be a totally unknown quantity with no firm relationships with its neighbours yet, especially Belimarius who may have some goodwill from the Ulfen but is herself an imperial expansionist. Manipulating the two into a conflict could help Sorshen shore up her own power base as ruler of New Thassilon, and keep Cheliax's attentions and resources tied up fighting a Runelord, and would certainly be something Taldor's agents should heavily consider, like the US funding the Muhahideen against the Soviet Union to encourage its imperial collapse.
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Morhek, you sure are good at making me wish you were on the writing team.
Hahaha, thank you very much!
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I wrote elsewhere positing that taldor is the natural and inevitable enemy of Cheliax - Cheliax desperately trying to arrest its decline, and Taldor on the upswing with a new reformist monarch and relatively calm relations with Qadira (considering it's Qadira). But I do like the idea that at least one place Cheliax is going to be competing for influence in is Varisia.
Even if they don't annex it, having Thrune-friendly powers in the region would offset the fact that the nearest major southern port, Kintargo, just became independent. Plus, while pissing off Taldor, Andoran or Rahadoum might provoke actions by others, New Thassilon seems to be a totally unknown quantity with no firm relationships with its neighbours yet, especially Belimarius who may have some goodwill from the Ulfen but is herself an imperial expansionist. Manipulating the two into a conflict could help Sorshen shore up her own power base as ruler of New Thassilon, and keep Cheliax's attentions and resources tied up fighting a Runelord, and would certainly be something Taldor's agents should heavily consider, like the US funding the Muhahideen against the Soviet Union to encourage its imperial collapse.
The city-states of Varisia are practically the only Arcadian Ocean powers weaker than Ravounel, and to the extent it has weight to throw around, it will try there. Firebrands hints at it beginning to do so, with Shensen meeting with Riddleport pirates.
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Honestly, an AP focused on such a war from the perspective of those living in Varisia sounds like a treat. We need more Kaer Maga content!
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Honestly, i don't see the current cheliax starting an all out war of invasion in any "sovereign country", too much of their international image rely on them being keeper of order for such war to make sense. An attack on Andoran or any other "proper" country of the region would likely start a massive coalition against cheliax, with probably taldor and andoran at it's core, so they need to be smart with picking their target. Which is why varisia (and the shackles) make perfect target as they are not "countries" in the proper sense and any expansion here can twisted into "restoring order" or "bringing civilisation" here, and expansion here would be unlikely to start an all out "anti-cheliax cohalition".
For the same reason, it's probably also very interested by the eye of dread, and all of the regions that were devastated by tar baphon's return. I'm almost certain that cheliax will try to play an heavy part in any counterattack on the Tyran, if only because they'll be able to turn any land they "free" from the tyran into a puppet state like isger, and no one would be able to condemn them for that as tar baphon is "the greater evil".
Belzken and all of that orc controlled region are also an obvious target, but it's too landlocked and far away for cheliax to reach into it, just like Galt. I'd say it's likely to be the "next target" if cheliax manage to secure a good chunk of varisia, but not a realistic target for the moment.
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If Cheliax did try intervening in Varisia, I expect it wouldn't be open military action but rather Chellish agents arming and supplying local Thrune-friendly factions in Korvosa, Magnimar and Riddleport, not just to resist New Thassilon's influence but to further trade ties with the motherland. Varisia is too distant to easily sustain a prolonged military invasion, and Cheliax isn't in a position to do it anyway after losing Sargava and Khari. More of a Cold War. I don't know if Belimarius has the patience for subterfuge, though, it doesn't sound like it. But against an expansionist Runelord, after famed heroes took out the other five, Varisia would certainly be looking for any ally it can get. And while it's not likely to make Varisia a colony, having a region friendly to Chellish merchants and ships, especially one originally colonised by Chelaxians and with existing cultural ties, would be a major draw.
If Cheliax is going to militarily intervene anywhere, it would probably be against the Shackles. Even if the can't take back Vidrian, smashing the pirates of the Shackles would remove a major threat to international shipping, especially Chellish shipping, and the Shackles are a target other nations would be reluctant to come to the aid of, at least openly. But if I was Taldor, all the way on the other side of the Inner Sea from the Shackles and building its own powerful navy that will eventually be able to go toe-to-toe with Cheliax's, it would certainly be in my interest to keep both sides fighting as long as possible - Cheliax takes out a mutual threat, but loses enough of its own ship in the process that it narrows the gap with Taldor.
Meanwhile, I think Cheliax's smartest move would be for its own agents to start fomenting tensions between Qadira and Taldor. Their tense relationship has cooled in recent years, but it's still an ancient and simmering tension that could roar back explosively if the Satrap felt sufficiently insulted or threatened. Tying up Taldor with a border conflict, maybe even provoking a war with Qadira, would dramatically slow Taldor's ability to threaten Cheliax.
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If Cheliax did try intervening in Varisia, I expect it wouldn't be open military action but rather Chellish agents arming and supplying local Thrune-friendly factions in Korvosa, Magnimar and Riddleport, not just to resist New Thassilon's influence but to further trade ties with the motherland. Varisia is too distant to easily sustain a prolonged military invasion, and Cheliax isn't in a position to do it anyway after losing Sargava and Khari. More of a Cold War. I don't know if Belimarius has the patience for subterfuge, though, it doesn't sound like it. But against an expansionist Runelord, after famed heroes took out the other five, Varisia would certainly be looking for any ally it can get. And while it's not likely to make Varisia a colony, having a region friendly to Chellish merchants and ships, especially one originally colonised by Chelaxians and with existing cultural ties, would be a major draw.
Savvy Magnimaran and especially Korvosan elites probably know better than to think New Edasseril is a serious threat to their domains in the near or medium terms. Belimarius may be expansionist, but she has had significant difficulty taking and holding non-state territory (to wit, Mierani Forest - indeed, she appears not to have taken Crying Leaf, likely because of sustained supply from Kyonin), and worse difficulties conquering a neighboring state (to wit, she was not able to conquer even the southernmost Linnorm Kingdom outright, only taking some of its marches). And she is far away. Of the Varisian states New Edasseril is the greatest threat to Riddleport, as it is the closest and has by far the smallest territory, but Riddleport's elites are not likely to look with credulity at Chelish offers (unless they come smuggled in under false labels through a third party - Nidal doesn't make a good catspaw, but Ravounel does). But on the other hand, Riddleport has absolutely nothing to offer a Chelish-led alliance system.
All of which is to say, when playing to Magnimar and Korvosa, Cheliax probably gets more mileage out of using the one as the other's bogey than it does using Belimarius.