Deadmanwalking |
John Kretzer: As Caineach says, that's exactly what I'm trying to create/reflect in terms of statistics. But by the same token I like a world where the PCs are, y'know, somewhat special. They have great poential. A 1st level Fighter is actually less badass than a 3rd level Warrior in every possible way, he doesn't even have any more Feats...but he's got great potential.
I'm not trying to weaken NPCs unnecessarily, heck, I'm not even advocating these stats for homebrew worlds (I'd pefer one with more PC classes, but a lower standard level), I'm just trying to reflect the world as it is shown in Paizo products.
tlc_web tlc_web: And all your explanations make logical sense...but they don't let the PCs be heroes. Y'know, the saviors of the village when nobody else could? At least not very readily. They let them be hired exterminators, which is sorta what they were anyway, but there's no need to rub the players' noses in it. At least, IMO.
Caineach: Yep! That's exactly what I'm aiming for.
cibet44: See, unless the PCs are actually some kind of prophesied champions, I think that goes too far in the other direction. PCs are exceptional, but them being the only ones who have those abilities strains my suspension of disbelief (barring the aforementioned scenario).
cibet44 |
cibet44: See, unless the PCs are actually some kind of prophesied champions, I think that goes too far in the other direction. PCs are exceptional, but them being the only ones who have those abilities strains my suspension of disbelief (barring the aforementioned scenario).
Well, for me, they're not the only ones that have these abilities but they are the very rare exceptions to the norm. When my players do come across NPCs that have PC class abilities it is quite an event. It's not about prophesied champions at all, it's about potential. The PCs have the potential to be something great and that is mechanically reflected in their PC class levels. When every other NPC they meet has nearly the same abilities it becomes a lot less special and the players can't help but feel like anyone could be doing their quests eventually.
This has the additional side effect of making my job as DM a lot easier. I think one of the areas where 3.x really went off the rails was in NPCs with full stat blocks. It's just not necessary to have them and frankly I don't think the design was meant to be used this way. PC class abilities are for the PCs and occasionally some of their adversaries, not NPCs.
chopswil |
all these demographics are just averages, a baseline from which to work with.
In every town/region doesn't guarantee that a certain NPCs class/level type exists or not, it gives you a starting point.
a town that has a magic academy is going to throw the curve on wizard NPCs and probably have low numbers of fighter types.
it will swing the other way in a large barbarian encampment in the wilderness.
Deadmanwalking |
all these demographics are just averages, a baseline from which to work with.
In every town/region doesn't guarantee that a certain NPCs class/level type exists or not, it gives you a starting point.
a town that has a magic academy is going to throw the curve on wizard NPCs and probably have low numbers of fighter types.it will swing the other way in a large barbarian encampment in the wilderness.
*nods emphatically*
What he said. These are intended as a useful baseline, not an absolute rule. Which is why the numbers being very rough doesn't bother me.
John Kretzer |
John Kretzer: As Caineach says, that's exactly what I'm trying to create/reflect in terms of statistics. But by the same token I like a world where the PCs are, y'know, somewhat special. They have great poential. A 1st level Fighter is actually less badass than a 3rd level Warrior in every possible way, he doesn't even have any more Feats...but he's got great potential.
I'm not trying to weaken NPCs unnecessarily, heck, I'm not even advocating these stats for homebrew worlds (I'd pefer one with more PC classes, but a lower standard level), I'm just trying to reflect the world as it is shown in Paizo products.
Ok I am confused...a little. I said there should be higher level NPCs ...and by logic there should be plenty of them. So you agree with that? Maybe I was not clear in what I meant.
Also I don't feel my PC is heroic...or special because I am superior to everybody else. As a matter of fact...I actualy feel less special when we are the only ones that can save the world because it is, to me atleast, so contrived and not logical that people just starting out are the only hope of mankind.
I am not saying anybody wrong...or that I can't enjoy a world like Eberron where the level were kept artficialy low. But I'll be happy in the FR as well.
I wrote a much longer response...but the site ate it. And I don't have time to go in length right now. I'll respond more on this topic later...as I do find it interesting.
Deadmanwalking |
Ok I am confused...a little. I said there should be higher level NPCs ...and by logic there should be plenty of them. So you agree with that? Maybe I was not clear in what I meant.
Maybe not. :)
What I'm saying is that there are, in fact, a fair number of high-ish level characters. Like ten 11th to 16th level characters in every large city, and a 7th-8th level character even in a mid-sized village of 250. Plus lots of 3rd-6th level characters.
Also I don't feel my PC is heroic...or special because I am superior to everybody else. As a matter of fact...I actualy feel less special when we are the only ones that can save the world because it is, to me atleast, so contrived and not logical that people just starting out are the only hope of mankind.
Well, not at 1st level you're not (and shouldn't be), but by 14th level...well, you might not be the only ones who could do it, but you're quite plausibly the only ones nearby. Which I think is a good and useful thing, from a adventure design (or use) perspective.
I am not saying anybody wrong...or that I can't enjoy a world like Eberron where the level were kept artficialy low. But I'll be happy in the FR as well.
I wrote a much longer response...but the site ate it. And I don't have time to go in length right now. I'll respond more on this topic later...as I do find it interesting.
Looking forward to it. :)
tlc_web tlc_web |
Also I don't feel my PC is heroic...or special because I am superior to everybody else. As a matter of fact...I actualy feel less special when we are the only ones that can save the world because it is, to me atleast, so contrived and not logical that people just starting out are the only hope of mankind.
+1
I am strongly of the opnion that in the beginning PCs should not be epic heroes. I have seen too many games where the ST tries to shove 'epic problem' solving at level 1. Low levels in my opnion should be more about being heroes in small ways. If you shove epic quests on PCs too early then the game becomes a march of fustration, because the big bad is not showing up until level 18 at least.
Bobson |
I love the interesting backgrounds and details Paizo puts into their NPCs for the APs but I really, really, wish they would just stick to the simple NPC format for all of them. Instead of "Krojun (followed by a 1/2 page of PC like stat block)" it should be "Krojun (warrior 10)". You could (and should) still have all the personality but just use the NPC classes in the way they were intended: for the characters the players are not controlling.
Quick - your sorcerer just cast charm person on Krojun. Off the top of your head, what is a 10th level warrior's will save? What? You need to know his wisdom? Sorry, that's not included. Make one up.
Ok, you make up a number which means he made his save, and now he gets really angry and wants to beat the party up a bit. What can a 10th level warrior do in combat? Well, clearly he has a +10 BAB, and is proficient in whatever weapons and armor he has (the other proficiencies don't matter). But how magical are they? What's his AC? He also has at least 5 feats that might affect how he fights. Does he power attack? Does he grapple? Can he do either of those effectively? Sorry, no stat blocks. You need to determine it all on the fly. Have fun with that.------------
Yeah, I'll take fully statted out NPCs any day, if there's any chance the PCs will come into conflict with them. Even if he's "just" a 10th level warrior, if he's the tribe's champion or chief, I'd want to have a full 1/2 page stat block for him.
Abraham spalding |
cibet44 wrote:I love the interesting backgrounds and details Paizo puts into their NPCs for the APs but I really, really, wish they would just stick to the simple NPC format for all of them. Instead of "Krojun (followed by a 1/2 page of PC like stat block)" it should be "Krojun (warrior 10)". You could (and should) still have all the personality but just use the NPC classes in the way they were intended: for the characters the players are not controlling.Quick - your sorcerer just cast charm person on Krojun. Off the top of your head, what is a 10th level warrior's will save? What? You need to know his wisdom? Sorry, that's not included. Make one up.
Ok, you make up a number which means he made his save, and now he gets really angry and wants to beat the party up a bit. What can a 10th level warrior do in combat? Well, clearly he has a +10 BAB, and is proficient in whatever weapons and armor he has (the other proficiencies don't matter). But how magical are they? What's his AC? He also has at least 5 feats that might affect how he fights. Does he power attack? Does he grapple? Can he do either of those effectively? Sorry, no stat blocks. You need to determine it all on the fly. Have fun with that.------------
Yeah, I'll take fully statted out NPCs any day, if there's any chance the PCs will come into conflict with them. Even if he's "just" a 10th level warrior, if he's the tribe's champion or chief, I'd want to have a full 1/2 page stat block for him.
Will save +8 (6 from class, 1 from wisdom, 1 from cloak)
+1 Longsword +10 (1d8+10 18~20/x2 slashing)Mwk light spiked shield +10 (1d4+4 shield slam)
AC 23 (+1 Breast plate, 17 Dex, Dodge +1 light shield)
HP 77
Initiative +2
Deadmanwalking |
Mild Thread Necromancy (Thread Breath of Life?) to follow:
I'm playing in a Rise of the Rune Lords game right now (It just started! Please no spoilers.), and the PCs all went to the Turandarok Academy and knew each other. Given this, I was allowed to read the Sandpoint town description by my GM (to get a better feel for the place). And, while I was at it, I decided to see how well it fit with my demographics. So here it is:
Sandpoint would have (with levels in PC classes):
32 1st-2nd level characters (None listed. Presumably not notable enough.)
15 3rd-4th level characters (18 listed, all but three named)
10 5th-6th level characters (9 listed)
5 7th-8th level (2 Listed)
This includes all characters with even one level in a PC class, and includes their full level (ie: a Rogue 2/Expert 3 is counted among the 5th-6th level characters) a fact that fits how I already envisioned my demographics, but is worth noting for people who had been thinking of them differently.
So the numbers don't work out perfectly, but IMO, come well within acceptable variances. There are also several 7th level characters with only NPC classes (something I'd think was kinda rare), which helps make up for the lack of PC classes at that level, IMO.
So the system works pretty well for at least one published setting. That makes me happy, and makes me think I've done something right. :)
Deadmanwalking |
Actually, I missed one, and there are 19 3rd-4th level characters with PC classes in Sandpoint.
As a corollary, and because I find it amusing, specifically mentioned NPC classed people of Sandpoint:
84 1st-2nd (74 unnamed...the militia and town guards, to be specific)
16 3rd-4th (6 unnamed...the jeweler's guards)
5 5th-6th
5 7th-8th
And I was right, that's clearly a disproportionately high number of 7th level NPC class characters to compensate for the lower number of PCs of that level.
Abraham spalding |
Is that including the outlying community around Sandpoint? I haven't read the books involved in this case so I also don't know if the population might not be a bit swelled because of the festival.
Remember part of why the 'out of town' PCs are visiting is the festival (or the ruins) -- as such PCs from out of town shouldn't count against its demographics since they aren't actual members of the community.
Deadmanwalking |
Is that including the outlying community around Sandpoint? I haven't read the books involved in this case so I also don't know if the population might not be a bit swelled because of the festival.
Remember part of why the 'out of town' PCs are visiting is the festival (or the ruins) -- as such PCs from out of town shouldn't count against its demographics since they aren't actual members of the community.
Nope, this is from the section on the town itself, which is clearly intended to be used either with the adventure or not at the GM's discretion. It doesn't even mention the festival (that's in the adventure, which I can't look at to compare since I'm in the middle of playing through it).
And it gives specifics on all the people, who almost all explicitly live in town (I'm not sure about the militia-men who make up the lion's share of the 1st-2nd level NPC classed characters, but everyone else is in town), so it's not primarily talking outlying communities either.
And I didn't count the PCs at all (though, as the game begins, any that live there would likely count towards the 32 unspecified 1st-2nd level characters with PC classes).
For reference, the town's population is listed at 1,240, which is what I based my calculations on (more or less).
Kirth Gersen |
Standard (1st–5th level): This is where the vast majority of people are. It's very VERY uncommon to see NPCs with NPC class levels beyond this range.
Exceptional (6th–10th level): A significant number of national leaders and movers and shakers are of this level, along with heroes and other notables.
Powerful (11th–15th): These NPCs are quite rare; normally only a handful of such powerful characters exist in most nations, and they should be leaders or specially trained troops most often designed to serve as allies or enemies for use in high-level adventures.
You've sort of done a 180, then, since you wrote "The Thunder Below" for WotC (in which 10th level orc barbarians are an army of mooks)? I should point out that I thought TTB was excellent in both design and conception, and we had no problem at all with the throwaway explanation of "these orcs in the mountains grew more powerful than their lowland kin" (possibly misquoted).
Deadmanwalking |
Ok so your break down is of those 'named' or 'called out' -- just everyone in the town then (simply to be clear).
I'm not trying to be a problem -- I'm simply late to the thread and interested in what's going on.
Okay: my theoretical numbers should be for everyone in town.
I compared them to the number actually mentioned in the description of the town (most named, a few not), and they matched up pretty well.
Since 3rd level+ people are rare enough in a town of 1,240 that they should be probably be notable, I take those listed to be the lion's share of those characters in the town. Quite probably all such characters barring PCs.
The two numbers (Actual Listed # and Theoretical Total #) are fairly close to each other, and I am thus pleased, since my demographics thus reflect Golarion fairly well (which was my goal with them).
Does that make sense?
Deadmanwalking |
You've sort of done a 180, then, since you wrote "The Thunder Below" for WotC (in which 10th level orc barbarians are an army of mooks)? I should point out that I thought TTB was excellent in both design and conception, and we had no problem at all with the throwaway explanation of "these orcs in the mountains grew more powerful than their lowland kin" (possibly misquoted).
That's not necessarily a 180. Golarion's an entirely different world than whichever TTB occurred in, and each world's average character level can be entirely different with no contradiction whatsoever.
Kirth Gersen |
That's not necessarily a 180. Golarion's an entirely different world than whichever TTB occurred in, and each world's average character level can be entirely different with no contradiction whatsoever.
From a game design standpoint it's a big shift; even though we're talking different campaign settings, the basics of encounter design should be similar enough... unless we're talking wildly different settings that require totally variant rules systems (like the "Boot Hill" rules don't really work for a game of "Vampire: The Masquerade").
Deadmanwalking |
From a game design standpoint it's a big shift; even though we're talking different campaign settings, the basics of encounter design should be similar enough... unless we're talking wildly different settings that require totally variant rules systems (like the "Boot Hill" rules don't really work for a game of "Vampire: The Masquerade").
Not necessarily. Compare the average character in, say, 3.5 Eberron (a very low-level setting for the most part) to 3.5 Forgotten Realms (a much higher level one) and realize that being 8th level means something entirely different in one world than the other (in Eberron, it makes you an epic hero likely known in song and story, in FR a mid-level nobody).
The same logically applies to encounter design and villains, since an 8th level villain is a very different sort of fellow in the two settings.
Abraham spalding |
The two numbers (Actual Listed # and Theoretical Total #) are fairly close to each other, and I am thus pleased, since my demographics thus reflect Golarion fairly well (which was my goal with them).Does that make sense?
Yeah you are using the notables as a sampling of the population to check your numbers -- since the numbers come well within the margin of error you feel that your theoretical precentages stand up to the test rather well -- which is certainly supported with what you have available.
It kind of makes me want to pull out my Alkenstar "mana wastes" circus again and finish the bit of work I need on it.
Kirth Gersen |
Compare the average character in, say, 3.5 Eberron (a very low-level setting for the most part) to 3.5 Forgotten Realms (a much higher level one)
I never played FR precisely because all the NPCs were like 25th level, and the 3.X edition rules totally break down at around 15th level. That's a matter of a totally different game rules engine being needed.
Deadmanwalking |
I never played FR precisely because all the NPCs were like 25th level, and the 3.X edition rules totally break down at around 15th level. That's a matter of a totally different game rules engine being needed.
Me either, for similar reasons (well, that and not having anyone to run it). :)
But I think the point stands. If the average NPC professional soldier is a 5th level Fighter, that's a very different setting from one where he's a 1st level Warrior. In the first setting an entire elite mercenary company of dozens of 8th level characters is somewhat reasonable, in the second not so much.
Which is the reason for this whole thread in the first place in a nutshell: I wanted to understand and define for myself where in that spectrum Golarion fit, and used the numbers to help.
Gorbacz |
Deadmanwalking wrote:Compare the average character in, say, 3.5 Eberron (a very low-level setting for the most part) to 3.5 Forgotten Realms (a much higher level one)I never played FR precisely because all the NPCs were like 25th level, and the 3.X edition rules totally break down at around 15th level. That's a matter of a totally different game rules engine being needed.
You should enjoy Golarion then, level 15 means that you are one of the biggest movers in the region. Level 20 means global threat.
bitter lily |
Which is the reason for this whole thread in the first place in a nutshell: I wanted to understand and define for myself where in that spectrum Golarion fit, and used the numbers to help.
I fully understand your objective, and appreciate it. I'm running Jade Regent right now. My PCs are traveling in a caravan through northwestern Varisia--and I want them to have memories of the landscapes & towns they pass through. Unfortunately, I have to detail for myself the villages & bigger towns on the route. And I want my material to feel consistent with the stuff I run from the AP.
All of which is to say: I love your efforts, but I lost the results in the midst of the thread. The modified ones, I mean. Can you please repeat the statistics you eventually decided on?
Deadmanwalking |
1 person marked this as a favorite. |
Deadmanwalking wrote:Which is the reason for this whole thread in the first place in a nutshell: I wanted to understand and define for myself where in that spectrum Golarion fit, and used the numbers to help.I fully understand your objective, and appreciate it. I'm running Jade Regent right now. My PCs are traveling in a caravan through northwestern Varisia--and I want them to have memories of the landscapes & towns they pass through. Unfortunately, I have to detail for myself the villages & bigger towns on the route. And I want my material to feel consistent with the stuff I run from the AP.
All of which is to say: I love your efforts, but I lost the results in the midst of the thread. The modified ones, I mean. Can you please repeat the statistics you eventually decided on?
Sure! The version I eventually settled on is the following:
Anyway, using my revised numbers, and assuming NPCs almost never exceed 6th level, but half of 6th level or less spellcasters are Adepts I've got roughly how many PC Class characters there are at a given level. Each number is a subset of the one above it (so in a town of 260, you have 13 PC class characters, 1 at 7th-8th level, 3 at 5th-6th level, 6 at 3rd-4th level and 3 at 1st-2nd level).
1 in 20 people is of a PC class
1 in 40 is at least 3rd-4th level in a PC class
1 in 80 is at least 5th-6th level in a PC class
1 in 250 or so is at least 7th-8th level in a PC class
1 in 1,250 or so is at least 9th-10th level in a PC class
1 in 7,500 or so is at least 11th-12th level in a PC class
1 in 22,500 or so is at least 13th-14th level in a PC class
1 in 45,000 or so is at least 15th-16th level in a PC class
And thanks so much for the kind words. :)
bitter lily |
Oh, you're welcome!
Each number is a subset of the one above it (so in a town of 260, you have 13 PC class characters, 1 at 7th-8th level, 3 at 5th-6th level, 6 at 3rd-4th level and 3 at 1st-2nd level).
I don't understand "Each number is a subset of the one above it," but your example is clear. You just calculate all the lines and add them. Except that 1st-2nd is the result of calculating 1 in 20 and then subtracting the sum of the others.
The only thing I don't like is that so few in your example end up being 1st-2nd level. You'd think that there'd be a lot of low achievers, just like there were in Sandpoint. What happened?
bitter lily |
My take:
The adept NPC class is kind of a waste of space. Those NPC classes are meant to be used for relatively non-important background NPCs, or in the case of aristocrat and expert, to be used as a "garnish" for other NPCs who have more levels in an actual character class.
As with any spellcasting class, the adept works terrible as a garnish. And as there's not any real world spellcasters, the idea of having a mundane spellcasting class on par with warriors and commoners is sort of silly.
All of which is why you rarely ever see us actually using the adept class in Pathfinder products. We just make them sorcerers or clerics or druids or oracles or witches or whatever. More interesting that way.
Anyway, using my revised numbers, and assuming NPCs almost never exceed 6th level, but half of 6th level or less spellcasters are Adepts I've got roughly how many PC Class characters there are at a given level.
Deadman, are you going to adjust your numbers to reflect the idea that, in fact, it is not the case that "half of 6th level or less spellcasters are Adepts"?
Deadmanwalking |
I don't understand "Each number is a subset of the one above it," but your example is clear. You just calculate all the lines and add them. Except that 1st-2nd is the result of calculating 1 in 20 and then subtracting the sum of the others.
That's not quite right, each number is subtracted from the one above it. So, 800 people would have 3 7th-8th level people and 7 5th-6th level people rather than the 10 5th-6th level people dividing 800 by 80 would result in.
So a good way to do it is start with the number of 1st and 2nd level people (40 for an 800 person group) then subtract each number in turn:
40-20 (the # of 3rd-4th)=20
20-10 (the # of 5th-6th)=10
10-3 (the # of 7th-8th)=7
So that means a group of 800 would have:
20 1st-2nd level characters
10 3rd-4th level characters
7 5th-6th level characters
3 7th-8th level characters
See how that works?
The only thing I don't like is that so few in your example end up being 1st-2nd level. You'd think that there'd be a lot of low achievers, just like there were in Sandpoint. What happened?
That's a weird artifact of the small size of that example. Look at the 800 person sample above for something more typical.
At 1,260, to provide another, different, example, there's the following:
32 1st-2nd level characters
16 3rd-4th level characters
10 5th-6th level characters
4 7th-8th level characters
1 9th-10th level character
Deadman, are you going to adjust your numbers to reflect the idea that, in fact, it is not the case that "half of 6th level or less spellcasters are Adepts"?
Not really, no.
Firstly, because while James Jacobs is the Creative Director, he's not omnipotent and quite a few Adepts of low levels are actually around in Paizo books, and more could easily be around unnamed.
And secondly, and more importantly, because my numbers seem to work as-is to reflect most places actually statted out. Which was the goal.
Deadmanwalking |
Has it been further broken down to how many casters would be capable of item crafting of certain items, for example just for craft rod it's caster level 9 and craft staff level 11,but not ever spell caster is going to take item creation feats.
No. One Item Crafter's work could easily sustain several small towns, so figuring how common such people are is tricky.
Spellcasting Services and their availability are what I used to determine these numbers. After all, if 8th level spells are available, so must be a 15th or 16th level person to cast them.
bitter lily |
That's not quite right, each number is subtracted from the one above it. So, 800 people would have 3 7th-8th level people and 7 5th-6th level people rather than the 10 5th-6th level people dividing 800 by 80 would result in.
So a good way to do it is start with the number of 1st and 2nd level people (40 for an 800 person group) then subtract each number in turn
Then I humbly suggest that we've figured out the problem with the numbers you gave in your example for 260. You dunnit wrong. Humbly, mind you, humbly. The math you've put into this is impressive.
If I understand you correctly, when I do 260, I get:
13 total less 6 3rd+ = 7 1st-2nd
> 6 3rd+ less 3 5th+ = 3 3rd-4th
> 3 5th+ less 1 7th+ = 2 5th-6th
> 1 7th+ = 1 7th-8th
Which is a much more reasonable distribution!
But again, thank you for the basic formula.
Deadmanwalking |
Then I humbly suggest that we've figured out the problem with the numbers you gave in your example for 260. You dunnit wrong. Humbly, mind you, humbly. The math you've put into this is impressive.
If I understand you correctly, when I do 260, I get:
13 total less 6 3rd+ = 7 1st-2nd
> 6 3rd+ less 3 5th+ = 3 3rd-4th
> 3 5th+ less 1 7th+ = 2 5th-6th
> 1 7th+ = 1 7th-8th
Which is a much more reasonable distribution!But again, thank you for the basic formula.
Yup, looks like I did in fact do the math wrong there. Whoops. Still, one math error over 5 years ago doesn't make me feel too bad.
And no problem, I'm happy to help. :)
Derek Dalton |
Friend of mine had something similar with higher levels even more rare then the numbers you have. It also explained why those numbers were so low for higher levels. One of things pointed out in what he showed me was taking into consideration how improbable high stats actually were. The numbers made a lot of sense. They addressed the rarity of an actual eighteenth level wizard.
Deadmanwalking |
Friend of mine had something similar with higher levels even more rare then the numbers you have. It also explained why those numbers were so low for higher levels. One of things pointed out in what he showed me was taking into consideration how improbable high stats actually were. The numbers made a lot of sense. They addressed the rarity of an actual eighteenth level wizard.
Oh, sure, going by logic that's a pretty defensible point.
My stats are predicated on the numbers actually represented in Pathfinder products, though. Which are probably slightly high for my personal game style in homebrew worlds, but that's the way it works in Golarion.
Drahliana Moonrunner |
Wow, thanks for that. I can absolutely understand not wanting to pin that sort of thing down with hard numbers as a designer, since you're entirely right about people treating the numbers as holy writ. But speaking as a GM, I like knowing that sort of thing, and this gave me a good benchmark to work from that fit with the world as designed. I mean, it seems unlikely anyone's gonna treat my numbers as gospel. :)
Part of being a good GM is a healthy amount of hubris. And part of that hubris means that your numbers ARE gospel.
Deadmanwalking |
So how does the NPC Gallery fit into all of this?
Given that it doesn't list frequency of occurrence for any of those characters, it doesn't. I mean, the NPC guide is useful, but it doesn't say anything about how many 20th level Fighters (or whatever) there are in the world.
It lists a handful of NPC class characters of higher levels, but none are Adepts, so it doesn't effect the math at all. You can assume a few high level NPC class characters on top of my numbers based on it if you wish (though that's not really borne out too well by Golarion books featuring numbers of named NPCs), and nothing else changes.
Part of being a good GM is a healthy amount of hubris. And part of that hubris means that your numbers ARE gospel.
I've admitted to hubris quite a few times on these boards. :)