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Note: this has to do with an entirely different problem than the one described in this thread.
Here's the problem: Although most martial weapons are “theoretically” balanced against each by a combination of smaller or larger damage dice, critical threat ranges and critical multipliers, several of the new feats in the PFRG, as well as the Fighter capstone ability Weapon Mastery, tilt things significantly in favor or weapons with an 18-20 threat range (kukri, rapier, falchion) or x4 crit multiplier (pick, scythe). And when I say significantly, I mean to an extent that even non-power gamers will take notice.
This is a bad thing, IMHO, because it in effect punishes players who choose to use iconic fantasy weapons like the longsword, greatsword and battleaxe.
I've included some extended justifications for this argument in the spoilers below (warning – math involved) but the short version is this: one small fix - restricting the use of the Powerful Critical feat with 18-20 weapons and retaining the x4 multiplier maximum as written - will largely re-balance things, if other Critical feats, Devastating Blow and Weapon Mastery are left as written. In fact, I'd probably lessen the penalty on Devastating Blow a bit, from a -5 to hit as a standard action to -2 as a standard action.
With this fix, 18-20/x2 weapons will gain the most benefit from Critical feats that inflict status effects, because those weapons have a higher chance per round of gaining a critical. But with the Powerful Critical nerf, they won't gain be gaining a huge addition in damage. Devastating Blow is of limited usefulness to these weapons, because they'll only be causing double damage, or triple damage for the 20th level Fighter with Weapon Mastery.
19-20/x2 weapons will gain moderate utility from Critical feats and extra damage from Powerful Critical, but don't gain as much from Devastating Blow as 20/x3 weapons, which gain significantly less benefit from other Critical feats because of their smaller threat range (remember, all these threat ranges are doubled with Improved Critical). Same for the 20/x4 weapons, which gain nothing from Powerful Critical (because of the x4 cap) but are the most effective with Devastating Blow.
To illustrate the current problem, here's a little more theory and the math for a 20th level Fighter with the feats as written:
Critical feats that cause an effect on a critical hit are hugely slanted toward weapons with larger threat ranges - a kukri wielder (threat range 15-20 with Improved Critical)has a 6 in 20 chance of activating a critical feat with each attack, for example, compared to 4 in 20 for a longsword wielder or 2 in 20 for someone with a greataxe or scythe. It is for that very reason that magic weapon "burst" enchantments double or triple the bonus damage dice for weapons with higher critical multipliers, for example.
Powerful Critical and the fighter's Weapon Mastery ability, both of which increase a weapon's critical multiplier by +1, also offer disproportionate benefits to weapon's with large threat ranges. A greataxe wielder with Improved Critical, for example, has a 19-20/x3 crit range. Ignoring very high ACs and the need to verify the crit, that means 2 chances in 20 to inflict 3 hits rather than one – essentially, two more hits than a normal hit. Powerful Critical increases that to 19-20/x4, meaning he has 2 in 20 chances of 3 extra hits above normal.
The kukri wielder, however, sees a more drastic increase. With only Improved Critical, his range is 15-20/x2 – 6 chances for one extra hit. With Powerful Critical that goes to 6 chances for 2 extra hits. Multiplying the chance for a critical by the number of potential extra hits, the axe wielder is at 6, while the kukri wielder is at double that, 12. Weapon Mastery, which increases the critical multiplier by +1 for each weapon, exacerbates the problem: we end up with 2 chances of 4 extra hits for the axe (so 8) compared to 6 chances of 3 extra hits (18) for the kukri.
To see the difference this makes in terms of average damage per round, here's our example 20th level Fighter. For simplicity's sake, we'll assume he has Strength 30 with items and level ups, a +5 weapon, Weapon Training +4 and Weapon Mastery with that weapon, and the following feats: Power Attack, Weapon Focus, Greater Weapon Focus, Weapon Specialization, Greater Weapon Specialization, Improved Critical, Critical Focus, Powerful Critical, Critical Mastery and one other Critical Feat. He's fighting a Balor (AC 35) and Power Attacking for 10 (his full Strength) with a two-handed weapon.
Total, his attack bonus is +41/+36/+31/+26, or +31/+26/+21/+16 with Power Attack.
Using a falchion (18-20/x2 base crit range), he does 2d4+48 per hit, or 53 on average.
Using a greatsword (19-20/x2 base), he does 2d6+48 per hit, or 55 on average.
Using a greataxe (20/x3 base), he does 1d12+48 per hit, also 55 (rounded up) on average.
Using a scythe (20/x4 base), he does 2d4+48 per hit, or 53 on average.
Regardless of weapon, his chance to hit the balor with each of his four attacks is: 85%+60%+35%+10%, for an average of 1.9 hits per round.
For the falchion wielder, each hit has a 30% chance of being a crit (they auto-confirm thanks to Weapon Mastery) except for the last one (which has only a 10% chance of hitting, although if it hits, it crits). 30+30+30+10= 1 crit per round on average, which is equivalent to 3 additional hits (with Power Critical and Weapon Mastery, his multiplier is up to x4). So all told, the falchion-wielder scores 4.9 hits at 53 damage for 259.7 points of damage per round, on average.
Using the same method for the other three weapons (remember, the scythe and other 20/x4 weapons gain nothing from Powerful Critical), we end up with this:
Falchion: 259.7 average damage per round; Critical feat activations: 1, on average
Greatsword: 220; .7 activations
Greataxe: 192.5; .4 activations
Scythe: 185.5; .4 activations
So not only is the falchion wielder doing significantly more damage than everyone else, he's also activating his other [Critical] feat far more frequently. The comparatively smaller benefit for the Greataxe and Scythe is balanced somewhat by the increased utility those weapons gain from the Devastating Blow feat (which allows the user to force a critical hit with a standard action at -5 to hit) but the greatsword wielder is pretty much everybody's b!tch.
I personally don't see that degree of difference as desirable, especially when it marginalizes traditional weapons like swords. But what to do about it?
I wrestled with a couple of fairly complicated options before hitting on the change to Powerful Critical, making that feat unavailable to 18-20/x2 weapons (as they're mostly finesse weapons, anyway, it makes sense).
That modification changes things to look like this:
Falchion (ultimately 15-20/x3): 206.7 average damage per round; Critical feat activations: 1, on average
Greatsword (17-20/x4): 220; .7 activations
Greataxe (19-20/x5): 192.5; .4 activations
Scythe (19-20/x5): 185.5; .4 activations
This way, 18-20/x2 weapons still rule when it comes to [Critical] feat effects, but they no longer rule in terms of raw damage, as well. 19-20/x2 weapons gain the best overall damage on full attacks, and are decent with [Critical] feats or even Devastating Blow. Axes and scythes, while on the low end in terms of full-attack damage and [Critical] feat activations, gain the most benefit from Devastating Blow with their eventual x5 damage multiplier (for this to balance out, 20/x3 weapons need to be gain the benefits of Powerful Critical with Devastating Blow, just in case Jason decides to restrict the combination of Devastating Blow and other [Critical] feats).

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I've noticed those math problems myself. There's good reasons for not being able to adjust critical multiple - the only way to balance it evenly is to make it do an effective crit double (x2 - > x3, x3 - > x5, x4 -> x7), and I don't think many would endorse an x7 crit weapon. But that's effectively what 18-20/x3 is getting, in terms of impact on the game. The crit activated abilities if anything make this worse, since they don't activate any better for higher multiplier weapons.
The critical feats could probably be balanced by making them take 1x off your mult.

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Whenever I see an analysis post I usually give it a quick scan before diving in. In my quick look through I saw this:
For the falchion wielder, each hit has a 30% chance of being a crit (they auto-confirm thanks to Weapon Mastery) except for the last one (which has only a 10% chance of hitting, although if it hits, it crits). 30+30+30+10= 1 crit per round on average, which is equivalent to 3 additional hits (with Power Critical and Weapon Mastery, his multiplier is up to x4). So all told, the falchion-wielder scores 4.9 hits at 53 damage for 259.7 points of damage per round, on average.
Since all four of these critical events are independent of each other you really can't just add these probabilities together like that.
With these probabilities you've listed you actually have about a 69.1% chance of landing one or more criticals in a full attack. You're more likely then not to have a critical in the round, but you shouldn't be shocked when you don't get one.
You may find it helpful to do a quick review of your probability theory. For the matter at hand I'd recommend a refresher on Bayes Probabilities and the Bayes Formula. Your task will be made much easier.
[Edit]At closer examination I see that you're using these probabilities as weights on the damage. In that case you can add the crit probs like this but you have to remember to subtract them from the base hit probs before weighing the normal damage. Here's a thread that discusses how to do this.
Sam

Kaisoku |

This is exactly the problem with balancing things that multiply damage, with things that add a flat damage bonus.
By itself, a 1d6 18-20/x2 vs 1d8 19-20/x2 or 1d8 20/x3 are balanced.
Toss in a +48 to those and you already have issues. Throw in things that increase the multipliers (15-20/x3 vs 17-20/x3 or 19-20/x4) and that measly +1 avg damage per attack is a drop in the bucket.

Kaisoku |

Using a falchion (18-20/x2 base crit range), he does 2d4+48 per hit, or 53 on average.
Using a greatsword (19-20/x2 base), he does 2d6+48 per hit, or 55 on average.
Using a greataxe (20/x3 base), he does 1d12+48 per hit, also 55 (rounded up) on average.
Using a scythe (20/x4 base), he does 2d4+48 per hit, or 53 on average.
I ran these numbers through my damage modal file. I added Haste and a general +4 to hit bonus from other sources (heroism, bard bonus, etc). Plus, I added the extra damage on the first hit with Backswing (which works on a full attack).
Here's the numbers I got:
Falchion: 378.35
Falchion (no Power Crit): 294.35
Greatsword: 333.75
GreatAxe: 302.15
Scythe: 294.35
Note that the Falchion and Scythe are matched perfectly in damage, when they are both restricted from using Powerful Critical. This is quite telling... I mean, what's good for the goose (too high multiplier) is good for the gander (too high range).
.
For fun, here's what I got for a standard action, Devastating blow attack:
Falchion: 173.4
Greatsword: 178.5
GreatAxe*: 295.375
Scythe: 289
*This is assuming the Greataxe can be improved to x4 by Powerful Critical, and then increased again by Weapon Mastery to x5. If they don't stack (because Weapon Mastery increases to x4, and Powerful Critical doesn't extend it past that) the damage drops down considerably, to 236.3.
Maybe it's best to word the feats based on their base stats. So a weapon can't apply for Powerful Critical if it has a BASE range of 18-20 or greater, or a BASE multiplier of x4 or greater. That would clear things up definitively for that feat. No arguments between players and DMs.
*Edit*
Oh, and with regards to the Falchion becoming less useful than the Greatsword in all damage situations...
He'll have a 10% better chance overall of getting his <XXXXX> Critical feats off. So 10% more chances at hitting someone with two of:
Bleeding
Blinding
Deafening
Exhausting (Tiring)
Sickening
Staggering
Stunning
And if the Scythe or Pick users want to complain, well.. stop using a farming/mining implement and pick up a real weapon. You had your moments of glory for the 12 or so levels before Powerful Critical shows up.
This is the difference between using a tool in place of a real weapon, the weapon can take advantage of weapon enhancements. The tools are a neat thing that can be used to get the benefits early, but just like a child becoming an adult, the farmer puts away his tools and toolish things when he becomes a warrior.
Besides, there's other worse options out there. Look at the Greatclub. It's a wonder it's still a Martial weapon.

Kaisoku |

On a side note...
I think the "wizards overpower everyone" thing is no longer the case.
Looking at Meteor Swarm, it's a max of a 24d6 damage against a target. That's 84 damage on average. Per round. Limited by slots per day.
Even using a rod of maximized (if it allows use on 9th level spells even), we're looking at only 144 damage tops.
Compared to even a standard action Greataxe wielder, that's paltry.
The only thing going for Wizards is that they can hit a lot of targets at once, from relative safety, and can cast "save or the fight is over" spells.
Considering Fighters are capable of accomplishing over 300 damage on average per round, at no daily cost, I no longer see a problem with a Wizard casting a spell that kills something instantly on a failed save.
Just as a note, one of those 20th level Fighter's rolling max damage on every hit, and getting a crit on every hit, would deal upwards to 1500 damage in a full attack round.
That's... insane. That's a damage cap of killing nearly two Tarrasques in one round.
Chew on that.

selios |

That's... insane. That's a damage cap of killing nearly two Tarrasques in one round.
Chew on that.
Yup. Insane like I said too. And no limit per day for doing that.
I think there is an ever increasing problem now.This has happened when 3.0 replaced 2nd edition. It's increasing again with PRPG. What will happen with PRPG 2nd edition ? Playing with thousands or millions numbers ?

Kaisoku |

Kaisoku wrote:That's... insane. That's a damage cap of killing nearly two Tarrasques in one round.
Chew on that.Yup. Insane like I said too. And no limit per day for doing that.
I think there is an ever increasing problem now.
This has happened when 3.0 replaced 2nd edition. It's increasing again with PRPG. What will happen with PRPG 2nd edition ? Playing with thousands or millions numbers ?
Well, it's hardly coming to that point.
The 1500 damage is something that would be a 1 in a million event... in other words, you'll probably win a multi-state lottery as often as you'd see that kind of damage.
My point behind this was to say that Fighters having this kind of damage catch them up to the spells that kill outright.
To me, it's a wash between "in the right situation, do enough damage that nearly kills people outright, an unlimited times per day" vs "simply kill a person (or with Weird, people), a limited number of times per day".
2e had Save or Die spells, just as they do now. That's "as much damage as it needs to be", which can be 5 damage or 5 million.
It's just that now the Fighter can compete in combat with numbers like this, without needing his Fortress and followers to make himself feel big outside of combat.
Essentially, Third Edition is finally leveling the playing field. So maybe we don't need to nerf the Save or Die spells for wizards.

selios |

Well, it's hardly coming to that point.
The 1500 damage is something that would be a 1 in a million event... in other words, you'll probably win a multi-state lottery as often as you'd see that kind of damage.
My point behind this was to say that Fighters having this kind of damage catch them up to the spells that kill outright.
To me, it's a wash between "in the right situation, do enough damage that nearly kills people outright, an unlimited times per day" vs "simply kill a person (or with Weird, people), a limited number of times per day".
2e had Save or Die spells, just as they do now. That's "as much damage as it needs to be", which can be 5 damage or 5 million.
It's just that now the Fighter can compete in combat with numbers like this, without needing his Fortress and followers to make himself feel big outside of combat.
Essentially, Third Edition is finally leveling the playing field. So maybe we don't need to nerf the Save or Die spells for wizards.
Of course, it will not go to this point. I was sarcastic. But this level of play with ever bigger number, is just not of my taste. I think it will be as fun to play with low numbers as to play with high, as long it is balanced. Just that with low numbers it will be far easier (to play AND to balance).
From what I'm reading more often now, it's always raise something, will it be hp, damage, number of abilities... If fighters can do that much damage, monks will really need full bab and extra damage and abilities, and more to compete with them. And so on with all classes...Each time a feat, or ability, spell, is released and it's too powerful, it's become a never ending rise of all the others parameters to be on par with it. Is it really the good solution ? Just asking...
Basic classes needed to be upgraded to be interesting and by not multiclassing at the first opportunity in a prestige classes. But now some prestige classes will be never be interesting to take, some of them are not powerful compared to standard classes.

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I've noticed those math problems myself. There's good reasons for not being able to adjust critical multiple - the only way to balance it evenly is to make it do an effective crit double (x2 - > x3, x3 - > x5, x4 -> x7), and I don't think many would endorse an x7 crit weapon.
I played around with some options like this but discarded them for that very reason - x7, when combined with Devastating Blow gets ridiculous. The simplest and cleanest fix seemed to be nixing Powerful Critical for 18-20 weapons.
The critical feats could probably be balanced by making them take 1x off your mult.
I'm still on the fence with [Critical] feats in general. Having them triggered by a crit, with no save, probably isn't game-breaking, but my main concern isn't getting normal critical damage+status effect, but rather a character with an 18-20 threat range (15-20 with Improved Crit) having a pretty good chance of completely locking down an enemy with perma-stun. Reducing the multiplier doesn't really address that issue. With the suggested change to Powerful Critical, an 18-20/x2 weapon isn't getting a multiplier bonus until 20th level with Weapon Mastery, so a -1 multiplier penalty for [Critical] feats just makes those regular hits instead of criticals. Ultimately, the [Critical] feats may need to be unhitched from criticals and made to trigger off something else.
I ran these numbers through my damage modal file. I added Haste and a general +4 to hit bonus from other sources (heroism, bard bonus, etc). Plus, I added the extra damage on the first hit with Backswing (which works on a full attack).
...
Falchion: 378.35
Falchion (no Power Crit): 294.35
Greatsword: 333.75
GreatAxe: 302.15
Scythe: 294.35Note that the Falchion and Scythe are matched perfectly in damage, when they are both restricted from using Powerful Critical. This is quite telling... I mean, what's good for the goose (too high multiplier) is good for the gander (too high range).
...
Here's what I got for a standard action, Devastating blow attack:Falchion: 173.4
Greatsword: 178.5
GreatAxe*: 295.375
Scythe: 289
Thanks for running that Kaisoku - I was working by hand and didn't want to get too complex. I think the above spreads are pretty right on, considering the 18-20 weapons will still rule in terms of [Critical] feat activations. I also agree with spelling out base threat range and base multiplier in the feat description - that may not have been clear in my initial post.
I think it's also worth pointing out that these damage totals represent the far end of the spectrum. We're talking two-handed damage machines, after all, so a lot of warriors aren't going to be inflicting such stratospheric levels of carnage. Not to mention, a lot of foes at that level will have access to protections like critical immunity (from fortification armor or something else), miss chances, damage reduction, etc., so I don't think it's a case of ZOMG! Fighter is 2 awesome! just yet. But I do think it creates a nice range of legitimate feat options for high-level fighters that has weapon choice dictated by fighting style (whether a focus on [Critical] feat effects, single-shot Devastating Blows, or a combination) rather than having a certain type of (non-traditional) weapon being overwhelmingly good in almost all situations. It's also nice that all these options offer little to no benefit to the thrice-damned spiked chain, with it's pitiful 20/x2 threat range!

Blazej |

I might suggest doing something like the burst magical weapon properties (flaming burst, shocking burst, ...) and have the critical feats be more potent with weapons with larger crit multipliers.
Something like for Bleeding Critical, "If the weapon’s critical multiplier is x3, your opponent takes an additional 1d6 bleed damage each round on their turn as well, and if the multiplier is x4, your opponent takes an additional 2d6 bleed damage each round on their turn." Or for Blinding Critical, "If the weapon’s critical multiplier is x3, the DC to resist this effect increases by 1, and if the multiplier is x4, the DC to resist this effect increases by 2."
For Devastating Blow the penalty you take to your attack depends on the critical multipier, like a -3 for x2 weapons, -4 for x3 weapons, and -5 for x4 weapons.