| Andrew Crossett |
The new fan site policy, to be made public at a later date, will be posted upon completion.
As someone with a fan site...technically, three fan sites...I find this a bit disquieting. Pretty much since WotC took over from TSR, the fan site policy has been "as long as you don't reprint copyrighted non-OGL material or make a Forgotten Realms porn site, knock yourself out." Is this going to change now?
Insert Neat Username Here
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The truth of the matter is, nobody knows what would happen if D&D was to crash once and for all.
When Atari died, American video games nearly went with it. Just saying.
This won't necessarily apply to RPGs, but it's an example of what happened in a similar industry under similar circumstances.
Insert Neat Username Here
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Insert Neat Username Here wrote:When Atari died, American video games nearly went with it. Just saying.Yep. "Nearly".
And you'll find other examples of industries that did sink when the leader touched the ground.
Conventional wisdom.
1) Note my edit; I admit it's not definite.
2) To clarify my statement about the videogame industry in the US, it did die until Nintendo came along.
Insert Neat Username Here
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Let me go one step further. If what it takes to change this "business" is its death and rebirth, in another shape or form (or none at all), so be it.
I actually have to admit, the difficulty that came with trying to resurrect video games forced Nintendo to be really awesome.
I don't really consider myself "for" or "against" Wizards and 4e (my decision to stick with 3.x was a financial one); I'm just trying to guess what's going to happen.
| Arelas |
David Jarvis 54 wrote:... because Amazon posts them and 4e was tops for a while. There is no question that sales of 4e have been very big indeed.Scott Betts wrote:Heck their own game isn't even D&D anymore...IN name only.
In your opinion. Given the continued high sales volume of the first set of 4th Edition books, that opinion appears to be in the minority.Just curious, but, do you have any numbers to share which back your statement up?
I'm just wondering how you know the sales numbers are so high.
I don't know if the sales of the initial books will be the best way to measure success and if it feels like DD. Most groups are trying it for a bit, requiring multiple books. It is summer which at least for most groups means we aren't playing DD that much. Most groups I know bought the books, few are playing it (mine is one of the few).
Now if the sales of the main books and supplements are doing well this time next year, it will be a better indication that they got the feel right.
The Red Death
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I wouldn't consider myself against WotC and 4E in particular either. I could add the New World of Darkness and WW to my target list too, for instance.
That's the business model, the corporate marketing and packaging, the craploads of BS we're fed under the excuse of "but these are gamers too, you know..." that I absolutely reject.
It's actually a much broader topic than this, because it is linked to my conviction that companies have critical masses that, once reached, are detrimental to their activities, organization and performance.
That's not the topic, though. Let's just say: I'm not mad at WotC because "it's WotC". I'm rejecting what WotC (and its so-called D&D) stands for now.
| Scott Betts |
Scott Betts wrote:Heck their own game isn't even D&D anymore...IN name only.
In your opinion. Given the continued high sales volume of the first set of 4th Edition books, that opinion appears to be in the minority.Just curious, but, do you have any numbers to share which back your statement up?
I'm just wondering how you know the sales numbers are so high.
According to WotC the game has already run through its first two print runs and is now on its third. We don't have exact numbers yet, but yes, it was on Amazon's bestseller list (in the top 5, if I recall correctly). It's also safe to assume that it was roughly as high on Barnes & Noble's list. This bodes very well for it, as role-playing games are driven strongly by word-of-mouth. If the game continues to sell well two months into its release, it's getting some excellent press.
| Lord Fyre RPG Superstar 2009 Top 32 |
Lord Fyre wrote:P&P gaming - NEEDS - D&D.This is conventional wisdom, because D&D has always been around and created the industry itself. But conventional wisdom is proven wrong time and time again.
The truth of the matter is, nobody knows what would happen if D&D was to crash once and for all.
I'm also feeling the irony of the argument, in the sense that people who didn't want to shift to 4E were often told that they were just not accepting "change", and that change was "naturally good".
I personally think we've reached the point with WotC where it becomes a new T$R. The craft has become the assembly line, once more. The wheel has turned and I can't get behind what's happening to the hobby. Something needs to evolve dramatically, or we're just doomed to repeat the same cycles over and over again. If it takes the crash of D&D to happen, so be it.
Who exactly is afraid of change, here?
Don't misunderstand me. I have virtually no interrest in 4E, and have yet to purchase a copy. (Counterwise, I have pre-ordered my PathfinderRPG).
However, even Clark Peterson of Necromancer games pointed out ". . . fan demand isnt the only factor--there are distributors and retailers and others who are not so excited about generic 3E now that 4E is out."
Which gets back to what I said before: "P&P role-playing Needs D&D.
Insert Neat Username Here
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It's also safe to assume that it was roughly as high on Barnes & Noble's list.
Stupid post-eating bug made me type this twice.
I'm not completely sure about this. The B&Ns in my area consistently have a full 4e shelf. So either they're refilling the shelf frequently or they're not selling it very well. This is just speculation, but I think Amazon's prices may have hurt sales of 4e elsewhere; in other words, I think Amazon sold 4e so well because almost everyone who bought it did so there. Again, just a guess.
Jal Dorak
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Scott Betts wrote:It's also safe to assume that it was roughly as high on Barnes & Noble's list.Stupid post-eating bug made me type this twice.
I'm not completely sure about this. The B&Ns in my area consistently have a full 4e shelf. So either they're refilling the shelf frequently or they're not selling it very well. This is just speculation, but I think Amazon's prices may have hurt sales of 4e elsewhere; in other words, I think Amazon sold 4e so well because almost everyone who bought it did so there. Again, just a guess.
The few Chapters/Indigo branches I have been in recently I noticed something weird - all that was on the shelf was Monster Manuals. Did they just overstock on this? Do people not realize you need it? With monsters being unique in 4th Ed, I've heard you pretty much need the PHB and MM to run a game. Why are these getting left on the shelf?
| realphilbo |
David Jarvis 54 wrote:According to WotC the game has already run through its first two print runs and is now on its third. We don't have exact numbers yet, but yes, it was on Amazon's bestseller list (in the top 5, if I recall correctly). It's also safe to assume that it was roughly as high on Barnes & Noble's list. This bodes very well for it, as role-playing games are driven strongly by word-of-mouth. If the game continues to sell well two months into its release, it's getting some excellent press.Scott Betts wrote:Heck their own game isn't even D&D anymore...IN name only.
In your opinion. Given the continued high sales volume of the first set of 4th Edition books, that opinion appears to be in the minority.Just curious, but, do you have any numbers to share which back your statement up?
I'm just wondering how you know the sales numbers are so high.
I have no local hobby store, just a Walden Books in the mall. The ONLY thing they sell RPG-wise is WotC. No White Wolf, no Pathfinder, NOTHING.
So of course they will be selling a lot of books and getting excellent press, because that is all that is out there. The delayed licenses pretty much pushed Paizo to develop PFRPG on their own just to stay afloat and to fill a niche market (one I don't mind belonging to). Other companies have not at all been able to publish their 4E stuff yet.
So success for WotC now has been bad for everyone else now, since NO ONE has been able to publish 4E materials due to a restrictive (and very late) license, and will continue to put 3PP in a stranglehold until the new license is released, which will probably be late. I doubt many 3PP can stay afloat if another 3-4 month delay happens with the license.
| Scott Betts |
Scott Betts wrote:It's also safe to assume that it was roughly as high on Barnes & Noble's list.Stupid post-eating bug made me type this twice.
I'm not completely sure about this. The B&Ns in my area consistently have a full 4e shelf. So either they're refilling the shelf frequently or they're not selling it very well. This is just speculation, but I think Amazon's prices may have hurt sales of 4e elsewhere; in other words, I think Amazon sold 4e so well because almost everyone who bought it did so there. Again, just a guess.
Ah, hadn't thought of that. You could be right. I bought my books from Amazon because they were cheapest there.
| Scott Betts |
Scott Betts wrote:David Jarvis 54 wrote:According to WotC the game has already run through its first two print runs and is now on its third. We don't have exact numbers yet, but yes, it was on Amazon's bestseller list (in the top 5, if I recall correctly). It's also safe to assume that it was roughly as high on Barnes & Noble's list. This bodes very well for it, as role-playing games are driven strongly by word-of-mouth. If the game continues to sell well two months into its release, it's getting some excellent press.Scott Betts wrote:Heck their own game isn't even D&D anymore...IN name only.
In your opinion. Given the continued high sales volume of the first set of 4th Edition books, that opinion appears to be in the minority.Just curious, but, do you have any numbers to share which back your statement up?
I'm just wondering how you know the sales numbers are so high.
I have no local hobby store, just a Walden Books in the mall. The ONLY thing they sell RPG-wise is WotC. No White Wolf, no Pathfinder, NOTHING.
So of course they will be selling a lot of books and getting excellent press, because that is all that is out there. The delayed licenses pretty much pushed Paizo to develop PFRPG on their own just to stay afloat and to fill a niche market (one I don't mind belonging to). Other companies have not at all been able to publish their 4E stuff yet.
So success for WotC now has been bad for everyone else now, since NO ONE has been able to publish 4E materials due to a restrictive (and very late) license, and will continue to put 3PP in a stranglehold until the new license is released, which will probably be late. I doubt many 3PP can stay afloat if another 3-4 month delay happens with the license.
This might shock you, but even when D&D wasn't the only new material on the shelf, they were still selling a lot of books and getting excellent press. Erik said earlier that he'd place D&D's market share at between 70% and 80%.
| David Jarvis 54 |
David Jarvis 54 wrote:According to WotC the game has already run through its first two print runs and is now on its third. We don't have exact numbers yet, but yes, it was on Amazon's bestseller list (in the top 5, if I recall correctly). It's also safe to assume that it was roughly as high on Barnes & Noble's list. This bodes very well for it, as role-playing games are driven strongly by word-of-mouth. If the game continues to sell well two months into its release, it's getting some excellent press.Scott Betts wrote:Heck their own game isn't even D&D anymore...IN name only.
In your opinion. Given the continued high sales volume of the first set of 4th Edition books, that opinion appears to be in the minority.Just curious, but, do you have any numbers to share which back your statement up?
I'm just wondering how you know the sales numbers are so high.
Fair enough. Heck they probably are selling well, it's just that when I see someone posting statements like yours, I have to ask how the information was obtained, and whether or not it's verifiable.
Being a publisher, I don't take much stock in top seller lists. It is the summer, it could have been a slow past few months on amazon, what with all the economic issues which come into play during the summer, not to mention high gas prices and any other number of variables which keep people from buying products. So, any product actually selling well enough to be on a "top list" right now might not be doing as well as people think.
Crow81
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Fair enough. Heck they probably are selling well, it's just that when I see someone posting statements like yours, I have to ask how the information was obtained, and whether or not it's verifiable.Being a publisher, I don't take much stock in top seller lists. It is the summer, it could have been a slow past few months on amazon, what with all the economic issues which come into play during the summer, not to mention high gas prices and any other number of variables which keep people from buying products. So, any product actually selling well enough to be on a "top list" right now might not be doing as well as people think.
If they were selling as well as they hoped there would have been no reason to revise the GSL. From what I have seen in the NYC area they have gotten 60-80% of the 3.5 market but with little to no replacements for the players who walked away. I think the revised GSL is an attempt to get a piece of what they lost.
Will it work who knows will they get my dollars very unlikely. They lost me when they stopped testing the later 3.5 splat books such as Magic Item Compendium and the Complete Champion. Breaking your product so you can replace it is just wrong.
| realphilbo |
This might shock you, but even when D&D wasn't the only new material on the shelf, they were still selling a lot of books and getting excellent press. Erik said earlier that he'd place D&D's market share at...
It's not shocking at all, because I was buying 3.x WotC stuff as soon as it came out - but there are no 3PP stuff where I am at. (BFE Ohio)And as a semi-casual gamer trying to get back into the swing of things, I am not about to order, through the internet, unproven or unknown 3PP material without looking at it/flipping through the pages first. Neither is anyone else in the west/central part of Ohio because the only option is WotC/D&D. It gets tons of press because it is the only press...without stumbling across a 3PP on a message board.
It is clear from what is available locally for me is that WotC is the 500 lb. gorilla with most of the toys on the block (namely the rights and IP of the D&D name). If Paizo (or anyone else) owned the D&D brand, they would be 500 lb. gorilla. Granted, they wouldn't have the $$$ backing of Hasbro behind them.
EDIT: More like 350 lb. gorilla.
BigDaddyG
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Scott Betts wrote:David Jarvis 54 wrote:According to WotC the game has already run through its first two print runs and is now on its third. We don't have exact numbers yet, but yes, it was on Amazon's bestseller list (in the top 5, if I recall correctly). It's also safe to assume that it was roughly as high on Barnes & Noble's list. This bodes very well for it, as role-playing games are driven strongly by word-of-mouth. If the game continues to sell well two months into its release, it's getting some excellent press.Scott Betts wrote:Heck their own game isn't even D&D anymore...IN name only.
In your opinion. Given the continued high sales volume of the first set of 4th Edition books, that opinion appears to be in the minority.Just curious, but, do you have any numbers to share which back your statement up?
I'm just wondering how you know the sales numbers are so high.
Fair enough. Heck they probably are selling well, it's just that when I see someone posting statements like yours, I have to ask how the information was obtained, and whether or not it's verifiable.
Being a publisher, I don't take much stock in top seller lists. It is the summer, it could have been a slow past few months on amazon, what with all the economic issues which come into play during the summer, not to mention high gas prices and any other number of variables which keep people from buying products. So, any product actually selling well enough to be on a "top list" right now might not be doing as well as people think.
I agree completely. I feel it's one of the worst arguments out there. Nobody EVER has any solid evidence to back it up other than WotC's word on the number of printings and the Amazon Best Seller list. I don't doubt it has sold well however there are two things I'm curious about.
1.) How many of those purchases were speculative, like my group's purchase, that were dropped after a month or two of giving 4.0 a shot. Therefore failing to generate future sales from those people.
2.) Future sales. Will the sales figures be sustainable through the future additional PHB's and inevitable splat books. Will it make the long haul?
Some folks have pointed out that it would also take a massive fail on the part of WotC for a 3PP to step up and take over their position. Well considering the missteps that have been happening this could very well happen. I for one have no faith that this revised GSL/SRD will happen on time. They are late for just about everything. D&DOnline should have been online the day 4.0 hit the book shelves. It's still not up 100%. Gleemax was a fail from the start. And Apparently the GSL/SRD was a fail as well. Otherwise they wouldn't be changing it. WotC can't have it both ways. I get they were trying to protect their IP but they need to make a decision. The IP is either OPEN or CLOSED. Not both.
I still believe though that it is most definitely possible for Paizo or any other 3PP to go toe to toe with WotC and win. If Paizo plays their cards right and steps up to take advantage of WotC's missteps it could happen. It's not unheard of.
| realphilbo |
realphilbo wrote:I wonder how much it would cost to buy the IP and brand name of D&D?I'm sure that Hasbro would probably not let that one go. For any price.
I don't know - with the botched PR and online launch of 4E, the brand might not be turning a profit, (I have no proof) they might be willing to sell that just to dump it.
D&D doesn't seem to be a high point of interest to the Hasbro. I did remember seeing a post on this board that said that at the latest stockholder meeting for Hasbro, no mention at all to 4E or D&D at all. Kind of surprising considering how dominant the brand is overall to the industry and how revolutionary 4E was supposed to be/is (depending on your point of view)
| pres man |
BigDaddyG wrote:realphilbo wrote:I wonder how much it would cost to buy the IP and brand name of D&D?I'm sure that Hasbro would probably not let that one go. For any price.I don't know - with the botched PR and online launch of 4E, the brand might not be turning a profit, (I have no proof) they might be willing to sell that just to dump it.
D&D doesn't seem to be a high point of interest to the Hasbro. I did remember seeing a post on this board that said that at the latest stockholder meeting for Hasbro, no mention at all to 4E or D&D at all. Kind of surprising considering how dominant the brand is overall to the industry and how revolutionary 4E was supposed to be/is (depending on your point of view)
How many households play D&D compared to some of the more common board games? I mean how many monopoly sets are there in most households? 2? 3? Also not only would 4e have to really tank, but the miniature line would have to as well to really make them contemplate ditching D&D.
| Bleach |
Um, in all of this backseat analyzing, did we forget that D&D is probably not WOTC's main source of revenue?
I'd be surprised if it even was number 2 or 3.
M:TG
DDM
The book publishing side
RPGs
Throw in things like Duelmasters in japan (and note, THAT actually got mention in Hasbro) and Heroscape?
Yeah...WOTCis in REAL trouble:)
Tharen the Damned
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So why does WoC change the GSL now?
Some thoughts:
- bad PR. The GSL was a PR desaster. I brought a lot of anger towards 4th edition. Even if the GAME and the GSL are different things.
- the D&D crowd splits. Under OGL almost all 3PP products, even most of those with vastly modified rules (Conan, Black comapny Campaign Setting) needed or referred to the Core Books. I guess that the majority of all D&D players started with the Core Rules and later drifted towards alternate rules. Now there are two different rule sets 4th and 3.5 (with all its different incarnations and modifications e.g. PFRPG is 3.5 compatible). This will split the D&D Crowd and every Gamer investing in 3.5 compatible products will not invest as heavy in 4th products. Or will pimp 4th edition to new players.
| Rockheimr |
Very interesting ... so WotC are changing the GSL. Wow, so it wasn't a deliberately unusable agreement (as many of us suspected) then? They actually thought tpps would sign it? (!!)
Jeesh, that has to make it one of the worst constructed legal documents ever.
This kind of second-guessing, 'oops, we made a mistake, but hey we're listening to our critics', approach really is beginning to make WotC look very shakey to me now. Maybe those unrepresentative internet polls about 4e takeup are getting them nervous ... :-)
| CPEvilref |
D&D doesn't seem to be a high point of interest to the Hasbro. I did remember seeing a post on this board that said that at the latest stockholder meeting for Hasbro, no mention at all to 4E or D&D at all. Kind of surprising considering how dominant the brand is overall to the industry and how revolutionary 4E was supposed to be/is (depending on your point of view)
There were many multi-million dollar properties not mentioned at that meeting. As former stockholders in Hasbro said around the time, this is not unusual at all. Apart from anything if every major brand was mentioned then the meeting would have lasted for days.
| CPEvilref |
I still believe though that it is most definitely possible for Paizo or any other 3PP to go toe to toe with WotC and win. If Paizo plays their cards right and steps up to take advantage of WotC's missteps it could happen. It's not unheard of.
One of the freedoms you have is to speculate without any business or publishing experience. Of course, other people have the freedom to tell you you're wrong.
As for the it's not unheard of, you're talking lottery odds. If you knew anything at all about the industry then you'd know that.
| CPEvilref |
If they were selling as well as they hoped there would have been no reason to revise the GSL. From what I have seen in the NYC area they have gotten 60-80% of the 3.5 market but with little to no replacements for the players who walked away. I think the revised GSL is an attempt to get a piece of what they lost.Will it work who knows will they get my dollars very unlikely. They lost me when they stopped testing the later 3.5 splat books such as Magic Item Compendium and the Complete Champion. Breaking your product so you can replace it is just wrong.
It's unlikely that sales figures have anything to do with the revision to the GSL. There is absolutely no evidence to suggest that it was revised because of sales, especially because 3e is, as far as can be ascertained, outselling 3.5, 3.0 and 2e.
As per posts on ENWorld by the WotC staff involved in the GSL the likelier scenario is:
Some staff want a more relaxed GSL. Other people want a tighter one (what we see now). The latter got their way, the former continued to push for a more relaxed GSL and have now convinced the powers that be at WotC to go for that.
| veector |
You know I wonder if they even tested the GSL/SRD internally. I mean, all the would have to do is have some editors (internally or externally) sit down with a lawyer not involved in drafting the GSL and try to come to an agreement about what the editors would be able to publish in a product.
If WotC really only envisioned 3PP putting out just adventures, then maybe the GSL will just get some tweaks about the revocation of the license and cease-and-desist on publication stuff.
I think a lot of what is hurting 3PP is not that they can't produce material for 4E with the SRD, it's that they're under a lot of legal scrutiny if they do and they have no recourse if WotC doesn't like what they're doing.
crosswiredmind
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Lord Fyre wrote:P&P gaming - NEEDS - D&D.This is conventional wisdom, because D&D has always been around and created the industry itself. But conventional wisdom is proven wrong time and time again.
The truth of the matter is, nobody knows what would happen if D&D was to crash once and for all.
Well that is not true. My FLGS would likely close if D&D crashed. My guess is that many game stores would loose a large percentage of their sales if D&D disappeared over night. I cannot see how the hobby would recover from the loss.
Pax Veritas
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In the opinion of my gaming group of 6, plus 6+ other players at our FLGS, its "too little too late" - and how pathetic, that the announcement didn't actually contain any substantive changes, but rather just the "tease" that nice-nice might be coming. (Okay, so one less tomato might be thrown at Gen Con.)
PAIZO has chosen its own destiny, and becauase of that, it must feel very rewarding to not even flinch this time when wotc makes another dramatic announcement. In Erik's words, Pathfinder: Full Steam Ahead!
The beauty of Pathfinder/3.5/OGL is the open game licence. I'm sure the 3pps won't be fooled this time by the extension of the laurel wreath in one hand by wotc, since in the past they've been clobbered over the head with the sword in the other hand.
PAIZO is now on par with that behemoth of an organization known as wotc. PAIZO has taken the right steps that were good for us, the community! So far, only the PAIZO insiders & the friends we tell are adopting Pathfinder INSTEAD of d&d. I'm sure wotc's announcement comes at a critical time JUST BEFORE Pathfinder goes mainstream to the wider gamer base (a la Gen Con).
Strategically, regardless of whatever wotc does to loosen the reigns of the GSL, 3PPs actually have the uppper hand right now - and from a negotiation perspective, 3PPs should ask for nothing short of a restoration of the OGL.
Kvantum
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realphilbo wrote:I wonder how much it would cost to buy the IP and brand name of D&D?I'm sure that Hasbro would probably not let that one go. For any price.
Oh, I'm sure they'd let it go for somewhere in the low nine figures ($100-200 million). That amount of cash would matter on the Hasbro bottom line.
crosswiredmind
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BigDaddyG wrote:Oh, I'm sure they'd let it go for somewhere in the low nine figures ($100-200 million). That amount of cash would matter on the Hasbro bottom line.realphilbo wrote:I wonder how much it would cost to buy the IP and brand name of D&D?I'm sure that Hasbro would probably not let that one go. For any price.
Sounds plausible. Unfortunately the only "game" company in a position to pony up that kind of dough is Blizzard. The D&D would be the WoW roleplaying game.
| Arelas |
The Red Death wrote:Well that is not true. My FLGS would likely close if D&D crashed. My guess is that many game stores would loose a large percentage of their sales if D&D disappeared over night. I cannot see how the hobby would recover from the loss.Lord Fyre wrote:P&P gaming - NEEDS - D&D.This is conventional wisdom, because D&D has always been around and created the industry itself. But conventional wisdom is proven wrong time and time again.
The truth of the matter is, nobody knows what would happen if D&D was to crash once and for all.
Im still amazed there are DD FLGS. All the ones I know gave up on DD books awhile ago (or do some special orders). Other WOTC products (minis, cards etc) are still around. So I dont see much of a change if DD was removed from the stores near me. We will still talk about diffrent game systems while playing mini/card/wargames. The convience of the internet makes the hobby easier to hold togehter than in 1e/2e days.
I imagine the living campaigns would suffer unless one company filled in the gap quick. I kind of wonder what % of sales are based on living campaigns and home campaigns.
Jal Dorak
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BigDaddyG wrote:Oh, I'm sure they'd let it go for somewhere in the low nine figures ($100-200 million). That amount of cash would matter on the Hasbro bottom line.realphilbo wrote:I wonder how much it would cost to buy the IP and brand name of D&D?I'm sure that Hasbro would probably not let that one go. For any price.
Everything is for sale, especially by corporations. Remember they answer to investors - theoretically, how does Hasbro explain sitting on a dead product line when they could be taking a large sum of money instead?
| Nahualt |
I agree completely. I feel it's one of the worst arguments out there. Nobody EVER has any solid evidence to back it up other than WotC's word on the number of printings and the Amazon Best Seller list. I don't doubt it has sold well however there are two things I'm curious about.1.) How many of those purchases were speculative, like my group's purchase, that were dropped after a month or two of giving 4.0 a shot....
Juast check the sales for the modules and splatbooks, only people that continue gaming would keep buying stuff right?
Heck even Eric Frakking Mona has come out and said it, what was it? 70-80% of the RPG sales. That leaves the rest 20-30% to be split amongst the rest of the big companies ( White Wolf, etc.). So whats left?
I don't know - with the botched PR and online launch of 4E, the brand might not be turning a profit, (I have no proof) they might be willing to sell that just to dump it.
LOL, do you know how much revenue the D&D brand makes for HASBRO? Just check the Video game sales.
Also, I posted this at RPG.ney on a similar discussion:
You know this reminds me of an interview with the guys from LOTRO. They were asked if their intention was to dethrone WOW and they laughed answering: " There is no way any other MMO can be as sucesful as WOW. I we can at least get 500k subscribers we would consider our game a success."I guess this is the thinking behind Paizo and any other 3pp that will remain with 3E.
Eric Can you give us any numbers on how good pathfinder stuff sells, so we can try to gauge what is your % share of the market? (or even better just give us your perception of the %).
| Matthew Koelbl |
Scott Betts wrote:It's also safe to assume that it was roughly as high on Barnes & Noble's list.Stupid post-eating bug made me type this twice.
I'm not completely sure about this. The B&Ns in my area consistently have a full 4e shelf. So either they're refilling the shelf frequently or they're not selling it very well. This is just speculation, but I think Amazon's prices may have hurt sales of 4e elsewhere; in other words, I think Amazon sold 4e so well because almost everyone who bought it did so there. Again, just a guess.
One of the members of our local gaming group handles stocking for the local Barnes and Nobles, and has indicated that 4E material has been moving fairly quickly. Now, that certainly might not be a trend everywhere, but I don't have any real reason to assume it isn't the case.
I also know of a number of folks (myself included) who preordered via B&N instead of Amazon, since B&N membership includes a monthly discount (generally 15%-30%) on a single item... which the 4E Core Set counted as, thus making it a better deal than getting it via Amazon.
As others have said, I don't think it is possible to accurately analyze whether 4E sales have been 'as good as they need to be' for it to be a success. But given that the majority of info has indicated it is a top seller, I don't see any reason to conclude that it is doing poorly. And at least the initial splatbooks seem to be well anticipated.
Could an outside party manage to push them aside if 4E ends up a failure? I suppose so, in theory. But right now, I just don't see any evidence of that happening.
Fake Healer
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Kvantum wrote:Also known as "We don't really have a GenCon release other than 4e FR, so we need something for the fans to feel good about while they're over looking at Pathfinder"Maybe...but...maybe not.
Edit: Also, I looked at the Pathfinder Campaign Setting...didn't do it for me, probably won't do it for a lot of other people, too.
I'm just curious but I thought I would ask, you don't like Pathfinder Setting, you are a fan of 4E and, as far as I can tell, you don't like the Pathfinder RPG. Why are you here? This is Paizo. They make Pathfinder products and don't support 4E. It sounds like you should be over at WOTC's site judging by your preferences. I am not trying to sound rude or anything, I am just curious as to why someone would frequent a gaming site that they don't support or have interest in?
Zuxius
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I think this is good news for a lot of people. Just how good we have yet to see, but I can't see them only budging an inch. I have a feeling they will open the store so 3PP can do their stuff. It is clearly an admittance that they can't go it alone on brand name. Though I am not in the 4th Edition camp, I do approve of this new direction. This is a smart move.
I know congratulations is a bit early, but I see this as a triumph for those that want the hobby to continue in the most artistic of ways. I believe the legal spectre has seen that controlling nothing is not a profitable option.
On a personal note, this really heals some of the pain that I have felt over this whole thing. I am really sighing with relief that the community has a chance to be whole again. I hope WotC has the integrity to do what is in the best interests for all of us.
Cheers,
Zuxius
| Nahualt |
I'm just curious but I thought I would ask, you don't like Pathfinder Setting, you are a fan of 4E and, as far as I can tell, you don't like the Pathfinder RPG. Why are you here? This is Paizo. They make Pathfinder products and don't support 4E. It sounds like you should be over at WOTC's site judging by your preferences. I am not trying to sound rude or anything, I am just curious as to why someone would frequent a gaming site that they don't support or have interest in?
Well following your line of logic:
This is Paizo. They make Pathfinder products and don't support 4E. Why do they have a 4E only forum, they should just close it and be done with it.
I am not trying to sound rude or anything, just curious as to why a publishing company would mantain a forum dedicated to something they don't support or have interest in.
Sarcasm aside, this is a public forum so far. I ask you Fakehealer do you like 4E? do you support 4E? if not why are you on 4E public forum? shouldn't you be on a Pathfinder only forum?
BigDaddyG
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BigDaddyG wrote:I still believe though that it is most definitely possible for Paizo or any other 3PP to go toe to toe with WotC and win. If Paizo plays their cards right and steps up to take advantage of WotC's missteps it could happen. It's not unheard of.
One of the freedoms you have is to speculate without any business or publishing experience. Of course, other people have the freedom to tell you you're wrong.
As for the it's not unheard of, you're talking lottery odds. If you knew anything at all about the industry then you'd know that.
And there it is...the old "well if you knew anything" comment. And I suppose you have a degree in RPG Industry Business and Publishing.
Your right...people do have the right to tell me I'm wrong. Granted it's the telling me I'm wrong with Insults, insinuating that I am somehow uneducated that is the problem.
And frankly, were I working for Paizo, I would be a bit ticked at your idea that they will NEVER be able to grow their business beyond where it is. That it's impossible to become THE name in the RPG industry. They can't possibly be THAT successful.
Hrmmmm...It's not not unheard of...How about the current state of the Auto Industry. The top car manufacturers (Chevy, Ford, etc...) aren't the top car manufacturers due to losses in sales, the economy, and missteps by the companies themselves. Smaller companies have gone toe to toe with them and have won (Toyota, Honda, etc...thanks to their smaller and more efficient cars). Let's see...Oh how about the airline industry? They have been hit by losses in sales, the economy, missteps by the airlines themselves (safety being the most recent screw ups). The top airlines are in trouble yet a small airline took advantage of the other airlines mistakes, made good choices and Southwest airlines ended up on top.
Of course I'm sure you'll step up and educate us all with your PHD in how the Automobile and Airline industry are run.
| David Marks |
I'm just curious but I thought I would ask, you don't like Pathfinder Setting, you are a fan of 4E and, as far as I can tell, you don't like the Pathfinder RPG. Why are you here? This is Paizo. They make Pathfinder products and don't support 4E. It sounds like you should be over at WOTC's site judging by your preferences. I am not trying to sound rude or anything, I am just curious as to why someone would frequent a gaming site that they don't support or have interest in?
I like 4E and don't care for the Pathfinder Setting or RPG, yet I still post here. Because A) the community is generally alright-ish. We have ups and downs (especially on this board) but mostly the people here are pretty much on the up and up and because B) I've enjoyed Paizo's work thouroughly in the past, and hope I oneday can again. I don't really care about whether or not Pathfinder becomes 4E someday or sticks with PRPG until the end of the line, but if Paizo ever decides to make some 4E stuff, I'd be pretty keen to check it out.
I have been slowly transitioning away from Paizo though, and this board's general traffic is trending downwards in my mind. Maybe we'll all wander off eventually.
Cheers! :)
BigDaddyG
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The Red Death wrote:Well that is not true. My FLGS would likely close if D&D crashed. My guess is that many game stores would loose a large percentage of their sales if D&D disappeared over night. I cannot see how the hobby would recover from the loss.Lord Fyre wrote:P&P gaming - NEEDS - D&D.This is conventional wisdom, because D&D has always been around and created the industry itself. But conventional wisdom is proven wrong time and time again.
The truth of the matter is, nobody knows what would happen if D&D was to crash once and for all.
How would your FLGS crash if D&D went away over night? Is that all they sell?
Most FLGS stores don't just sell D&D. It's not their sole bread and butter. I would venture to say that your FLGS also carries titles from White Wolf, Palladium, Paizo, etc. It's probably also safe to say that they carry a selection of Table Top War Games. I'm sure they even carry games from a little company called Games Workshop (a company that could easily squash WotC if they had a mind to). This would include not only their TTG but their new RPG's as well (both of which is impossible to get your hands on in my FLGS due to it selling out as soon as they get product in.)
Most FLGS stores are not solely "Game" stores either. They carry comics, fiction novels, card games, toys and collectables. Go to your FLGS and look to see how many shelves or spinners they have that actually contain D&D product. I would guess it's a fairly small percentage of the merchandise your FLGS actually carries. No FLGS is paying the bills with sales of D&D. That's pretty silly. If that IS the case then that FLGS probably deserves to go out of business.
BigDaddyG
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crosswiredmind wrote:Sounds plausible. Unfortunately the only "game" company in a position to pony up that kind of dough is Blizzard. The D&D would be the WoW roleplaying game.There is already a World of Warcraft Roleplaying Game.
yeah...4.0 D&D >8-) OH yeah...and the WOW RPG too...your right.