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I manage a marketing budget: 7 digits worth of it.
The job is all about shaping consensus on product. Marketing a new product like 4.0 is going to be hell. Bloody hell, mind-numbing hell. There are several reasons for this.
First of all, the self-definition of many gamers is tied to their game. Messing with it is like saying that one's spouse/Mom/child needs liposuction/a diet/20minutes a day at the gym. It's a type of criticism and most folks have a hard time with changes in something they see as personal; with something they see as theirs.
Likewise, gamers are bright, inquisitive, and opinionated. That is, they are on the good side of the bell curve in terms of their IQs. They also are very adept at deconstructing double speak and spin. As these are the core tools of most marketers, they really don’t work so well with us.
So Hasbro has attempted to bring us all into the fold by "deploying transparency of process." That is, they have constantly tried to feed us sculpted bits of developmental information and shown us "the man behind the curtain" in terms of design. Looks like their core strategy has been to introduce us to the best pieces of the product and then praise their own ideas in an attempt to build consensus that this is the greatest thing EVER!
I hope everyone is not too surprised by this. It is the professional obligation of the marketing team to build up as much positive spin as possible.
The problem I think, is the best stuff from the best thing ever, has a substantial percentage of players responding with, "EWWWWwwwwWWWWWW!" I imagine the response of both the design team and the marketing team has been a bit of shock and horror. A fairly typical response would be to unleash some counter-spin with "trusted members of the gaming community."
Again, there is hazard here, because smart, picky gamers immediately respond with a critique of the spin. For example, as much as I respect the work of Nick and Ari, I also know that they have a vested interest in the success of the product. They are freelancers who have generated content for it and hope to do so in the future. I do not think their responses are disingenuous, but I am aware of their bias and I have to filter comments like, "The DMG is the best book ever!" because I am aware that they might not be informed by the most detached perspective.
Taking a good old whiff of the tone and techniques I am seeing, and also keeping my ear to the ground and listening to the rumbling of folks around their NDAs, I am fairly certain that there are problems, and the people who are in charge of this are scared. Scared as in, "How the heck am I going to keep my job if this doesn’t meet goal" scared.
The core of what is going on here is an attempt to broaden the play base by targeting a younger audience. It's the same sort of thing you see Tide or McDonald's or Pepsi do. Get that younger demographic! It makes sense when understood that brand loyalties, use of leisure time, and patterns of consumption develop when folks are young and stay with us our entire lives. Show of hands here, how many of us started playing before age 25?
Right now the bandwidth of most teens and 20 somethings is more WoW than D&D. That cohort is the target. The strategy is structured to get that group and alo and hang onto as many old-timers as possible. To survive and endure endure the product line must generate enough revenue to support what must be an FTE heavy R&D team and a relatively low margin product line.
The folks who are shooting 4.0 most likely see themselves as trying to save the game. They are trying to move the genre and their product from the back end of a consumption cycle to the front end. I respect that. Hasbro does not care about D&D the way we do. To Hasbro, it is just another revenue stream and product line. The WOTC team has to keep improving contributions to share value each year if it wants to survive. It is actually that simple. I imagine there are fiannce types and anlaysts even now saying, "The margin on print is x and the margin on minis and cards is y! Kill print and drive margin." Of course, I would argue back that is about brand development and cash flow, but that is truly the subkect of another conversation.
From my perspective, however, WOTC may create a perfect storm. The GENX folks who were rolling into their early 30s when 3.0 launched were the core of the upsurge. Many folks came back to D&D after a long hiatus when 3.0 launched because their life was changing and their income and leisure time began to open up. That cohort of consumers, coupled with the grognards, carried the 3.0 wave of success for both the third party publishers and WOTC. However, the product as it stands is in serious danger of alienating the core market and not being dynamic enough to draw in the target group. The target group does not have a previous history with the game. The target group was not as deeply penetrated as the GenX crew was. They had playstation. We had Nintendo. We had Saturday morning cartoons. They had Cartoon Network. It's a different group that will respond differently to the product.
Here's the secret and what is being missed: it almost always requires current players to recruit new players .
So, unless the strategy involves serious thought on how to recruit new players and GMs it is flawed. Outside of Gleemax, which is a really poor geeky version of myspace, I am not seeing that attempt made well, or more importantly, specific products targeted to acquire the right bandwidth of kids. Now I don't have a silver bullet here and none of us do. I am solid enough of a marketing professional to think that if I had the right market research and sales data I could float a couple of ideas, but the issue here is a huge one.
It's the same issue faced by TV & newspapers and radio. How does an old fashioned medium of entertainment stay relevant in a changing media landscape? No one knows yet, except maybe Steve Jobs and I think he just guesses right bout a third of the time.
So, 4.0, will I buy it and play? Oh, I'll buy it. However that will be in spite of and not because of how it has been marketed. I really don't know if I'll play it. I am really hoping some company will fix 3.5's bugs, but I am not depending on it. However, I do love this game, and the future of the game is 4.0. I just wish I felt the future was brighter.
Likewise, I enjoyed this essay.
As always, I am intrigued by an inside view of processes that I only view from an external viewpoint. The marketing strategies of WotC have been a source of much consternation/ridicule/debate of late, so the view of a person with marketing knowledge is enlightening. An excellent read.
I am not knowledgable in the field of marketing, but that sounds about right from where I stand.
I imagine the response of both the design team and the marketing team has been a bit of shock and horror.
I had a thought about this the other day. One I held back from posting here.
Does WotC have a marketing team? My initial reaction would be "yes," but I realized all of the marketing is coming from the designers and developers. Very little, if any, marketing is coming from other sources.
And then a bigger fear gripped me. If WotC doesn't have a marketing team, it could be due to it not being considered a "justifiable expense."
And that still worries me.
I'll wager that, like the freelancers allowed to talk, the designers have been charged with the same "positive comments only publicly" mantra. Negative comments should be directed in-house.
So, yeah, we're only seeing the good at the moment.
As I've said several times, we won't get a good read on the game until Origins and GenCon. Then we'll know what the community at large really thinks.
A fairly typical response would be to unleash some counter-spin with "trusted members of the gaming community."
I don't have a problem with this, esp since one can read into what is not being said. i.e. I don't remember who said it (either Nick or Mona or ...) but someone said that Ari is a company man for WotC, so I take his opinion with a grain of salt. Nick, OTOH, I trust him, b/c I feel he's a paizo company man and not a wotc company man. But I digress. So when Nick spends (on my monitor) 3 lines talking about how great 4E is and 4 lines talking about how good a human being a person that works at WotC is, that tells me I should invest in that person more then the game, if that person was selling their values. But I also noticed that Nick said the DMG is great; he didn't say the game pressed his nastalga button like nothing he's ever played before or that he felt that this was the way that D&D was meant to be played or similar.
Taking a good old whiff of the tone and techniques I am seeing, and also keeping my ear to the ground and listening to the rumbling of folks around their NDAs, I am fairly certain that there are problems, and the people who are in charge of this are scared. Scared as in, "How the heck am I going to keep my job if this doesn’t meet goal" scared.
I suspected as much. It's good to hear a marketting person's prospective on this. It also saddens me to know that my fear is actually true. :(
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So when Nick spends (on my monitor) 3 lines talking about how great 4E is and 4 lines talking about how good a human being a person that works at WotC is, that tells me I should invest in that person more then the game, if that person was selling their values. But I also noticed that Nick said the DMG is great; he didn't say the game pressed his nastalga button like nothing he's ever played before or that he felt that this was the way that D&D was meant to be played or similar.
I respect Nick's work too and I think he is sincere. I just don't know if I consider his opinion objective. I think there is a difference.
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I'll wager that, like the freelancers allowed to talk, the designers have been charged with the same "positive comments only publicly" mantra. Negative comments should be directed in-house.
So, yeah, we're only seeing the good at the moment.
As I've said several times, we won't get a good read on the game until Origins and GenCon. Then we'll know what the community at large really thinks.
As employees they should be structuring their responses carefully. No doubt everyone has had some instruction on how to stay "on message."
Your ultimate point is that we do not have acess to the true interior of the game as experience or as mechanics until we get our hands on it. I do not disagree and I plan on giving it a chance. However, I am disenheartened at this point. My logic above was an attempt to illustrate why.
RPG Superstar 2008 Top 8
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Still another argument to be made is that, while this lackluster and failing (as perceived by many) marketing strategy is not working for WOTC and 4th edition it may benefit the scores of 3rd party publishers who opt to stay with 3rd edition.
Look at the various discussions and declarations here on these boards. People swearing to continue supporting Paizo so long as they produce 3.5 product and bailing if they switch to 4th.
While WOTC has incited and mostly alienated their RPGA Living Greyhawk groups, there is a waiting group in the wings, DA's Blackmoor. The organization is there, the product is there and waiting. I expect to see this group surge, especially since they too seem to be undecided RE: 4th Edition; I know many of their players and fans will prefer to stay in 3.5 (I'm one of them <BIAS Warning!>).
Or the 3rd party publishers who are doing their own thing: Castles and Crusades, True20, Runequest, OSRIC, etc. Many of these players who also feel alienated and betrayed by WOTC may and will flock to these other publishers.
Myself, I was always a WOTC, Official D&D product only DM. Immediately after the 4th edition announcement I found myself buying several 3rd party books and have realized that there was a lot produced by others that is very much quality work and useful. I feel as if I've missed out on some things in the past then, so I look forward to what many of these publishers will do in the future.
So at least in my case, their marketing has helped other publishers gain my dollar instead of WOTC.
Look at the various discussions and declarations here on these boards. People swearing to continue supporting Paizo so long as they produce 3.5 product and bailing if they switch to 4th.
I don't realy see this as "bailing" on paizo if they switch to 4e, Spending money on products that are of no use to you is not loyalty it is stupidity.
That said, I support paizo in what ever path they decide to take, and they can always count on my recomendation when somebody asks about quality gaming products, and I wish them the best of luck in going forward no matter what thier final descision is. however, if they stop selling products that I am interested in, then I will stop giving them money, although I will not think less of them as a company, or wish the, ill in any way.
Look at the various discussions and declarations here on these boards. People swearing to continue supporting Paizo so long as they produce 3.5 product and bailing if they switch to 4th.
I don't realy see this as "bailing" on paizo if they switch to 4e, Spending money on products that are of no use to you is not loyalty it is stupidity.
That said, I support paizo in what ever path they decide to take, and they can always count on my recomendation when somebody asks about quality gaming products, and I wish them the best of luck in going forward no matter what thier final descision is. however, if they stop selling products that I am interested in, then I will stop giving them money, although I will not think less of them as a company, or wish the, ill in any way.
Well said. Although... Almost well said.
This part:
however, if they stop selling products that I am interested in, then I will stop giving them money,
Is also stupid.
I mean there is plenty from Paizo that can be enjoyed if you don't support their D&D edition choices.
Thanks for the marketing insight tadkil.
Nice essay.
joe b.
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I think abandoning Paizo completely is bailing. I say that because that is exactly what I would do.
I like the Planet Stories. I've read two and have 3 more. I will certainly read them at some point (after I catch up on my D&D reading). Having recently purchased Ptolus and the World's Largest City, I have about 1200 pages of gaming material to read in addition to my Pathfinder #6, Noose of the Hangman and Dragonsworn Vale. And the Chronicles books aren't out yet.
Now, I like Paizo. I like the fact that they make products for my favorite game. I like that all of their products are high quality.
But, even though I like their products, there are other products I might like almost as well. I buy Paizo products mostly because they make products for my favorite game. If that ends, so does my desire to support them. Some would certainly consider that petty. On some level, I think so to. But it is my money, and I'll try to support a company that IS producing products for the game that I like. Wolfgang Baur and Open Design, perhaps. Or perhaps not. Depends on how they go.
D&D 4e T.V. commercials. It's going to happen
That could simply be Scott's way of delecting criticism.
"Oh, don't worry, what you've seen these last 6 months isn't our *real* marketing strategy."
Of course the marketing has started. The marketing going on now is to the hardcore, message-board-reading fan. It's the people being targeted now that will (or will not) bring in other players. He may be referring to marketing for non-D&D players not haveing started, but to say that the marketing hasn't really started yet is laughable.
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Great insight - thanks for that :-)
Scott Rouse recently said on Enworld (in a thread called something like "Love the Game, Hate the Marketing" or something like that) that the real marketing drive for 4e hasn't started yet, and that they haven't really dug very deeply into their marketing budget at all (I may be misquoting him here, can't recall 100%.)
In some ways that is good to hear. I would hope that the lion's share of marketing dollars would be to develop brand awareness and product knowledge in the target demographic. Then the issue becomes more about how well they can hang on to their core consumers. The ball is in play on that front and I think they are doing poorly. It is too early to speak to how well they are marketing to newbies and GenY as we haven't seen their spin yet. All we have so far is Gleemax, which my 27 year old admin says, "has some suck to it." She's a WoW playing machine. Granted this is anecdote and not analysis, but I think it is informative if not absolute.
However, I think much of what we are seeing here also has alot to do with regaining control of their I.P. Hasbro must be freaked that the OGL empowered so many companies to exist and steal market share with their rules engine. If my boss told me I had to grow market share, one effective way to do it would be to create a mechanism to restrict competition. Coke and Pepsi do it by willingly paying slottage in the soda aisle of grocery stores. It ties up the real estate, and likewise creates a high bar of entry.
I see 4.0 as much about nerfing competition in the marketplace as about developing a sound new product. Nuking all the licenses was a tactical move to regain control of the I.P. There's been a lot of good things said on this front over in this conversation.
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That could simply be Scott's way of delecting criticism.
"Oh, don't worry, what you've seen these last 6 months isn't our *real* marketing strategy."
Of course the marketing has started. The marketing going on now is to the hardcore, message-board-reading fan. It's the people being targeted now that will (or will not) bring in other players. He may be referring to marketing for non-D&D players not haveing started, but to say that the marketing hasn't really started yet is laughable.
:-D
Have to agree with you there.
The job is all about shaping consensus on product. Marketing a new product like 4.0 is going to be hell. Bloody hell, mind-numbing hell. There are several reasons for this.
First of all Tadkil, fantastic dissertation on the problems that WotC is facing. I agree, there is probably more pressure on the WotC team right now than ever before.
On one side you have the established gamers, some of us who have been playing since 1st Edition or even before. Many of us have invested hundreds of hours in gaming along with thousands of dollars of disposable income. Many feel cheated by the fact that we are being asked to start all over and buy everything again, which is difficult even if the game will be 100% better.
On the other you have the new brand owners, Hasbro, who as you pointed out view the game as another revenue stream. I also think that Hasbro is a little miffed that they have perhaps purchased the horse farm just before Henry Ford built his automobile factory. The D&D brand name probably cost them a lot of cash, but it is facing challenges that it has never seen before (WoW, 3rd party games, aging of fan base).
I just heard they are closing down all of Polaroid's factories because the iconic brand just didn't make the leap to digital photography successfully. The corporate people made a few bad descisions and the brand got left behind. Will this happen to D&D? I sincerely hope not, but I have an apprehension that it will. Of course, what will this mean for the gaming community? Perhaps another company will buy the rights when Hasbro decides to cut a loss off the bottom line. Even though cars have repalced horses as the main means of human transportation, there are still plenty of people who enjoy riding for its own sake.
Who I really feel bad for are the folks at WotC. Bound by NDAs and restrictions from corporate, vilified and lambasted by their fanbase, these poor folks will bear the brunt of the s$%tstorm should 4.0 founder. God bless you all and my prayers are with you.
On the other you have the new brand owners, Hasbro,
Hasbro isn't a brand new owner. They purchased WotC 2 years before 3E's announcement. They difference now is is that, Hasbro has owned WotC now for about 10 years. Any company that can't pull its own weight and meet certain profit margins after 10 years isn't a good business investment. It is quite possible that 4E was stepped up simply because the President of WotC had a conversation with the higher ups of Hasbro where he was told that they'd have to make a certain Return on Investment or Hasbro's financial people would step in. And its not a hard guess that the first thing that would go is the RPG department.
If that were the case, then what the WotC people are saying about how Hasbro doesn't interfere much on a daily basis is true, that the decisions are being made by WotC people are all true, and they really would be scared for their jobs.
Hasbro isn't a brand new owner. They purchased WotC 2 years before 3E's announcement. They difference now is is that, Hasbro has owned WotC now for about 10 years.
Perhaps I'm just confused. Isn't ten years ago when WotC first stepped in to bail out TSR? Were they already a subsidiary of Hasbro ten years ago? Perhaps they were, if so, I apologize. It really doesn't invalidate the argument, just makes them the established horse farmers looking at all the new Model Ts tootling by and grinding their teeth. I just have a feeling that "capturing the youth demographic" is going to be a hard road for them with all the shiny new ways young folks with a hankering to game have to spend their cash.
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My guess is this - they don't have access to a real marketing budget yet, so have to do what they can "on their own time" until closer to release (when Hasbro will likely dig deep into their pockets and create a push that is unprecedented in the industry), so are doing their own marketing. Clearly, none of them have a very strong background in this area, so their efforts come out as amatuerish at best and offensive at worst...
The slick, professional ads will come, unless Hasbro decides to bail on the product for some inane reason at the last minute.
Everything should be deployed as part of a formal communication plan. The designers etc., are positioned and have credibility within the gaming community. I would expect that the actual staff members have been given talking points and that the freelancers have been chosen based on their responses so far and the level of influence they are perceived to have.
Of course, I may be assuming a level of planning and coordination that does not really exist. That would be disappointing.
The budget should be developed at this point and its individual components already approved. The designers, etc. will have little input on that piece of things. Their job is to stay on message and speak when and where they are told.
Brand is about structured image and if its components are developed piecemeal, then its identity is deformed and devalued. Specific formats may still be in play but the campaign should have already been built and large scale media buys deployed. There's some wiggle here, but in general this happens at least six months out in my experience. We might not be seeing much yet, but it should all be planned and plugging along.
As the product is four months from launch (June I believe), I am a little concerned that we have not really seen the full court press begin. I really hope all the dollars weren't dumped into Gleemax with "Build it and they will come" as the core strategy.
My call : Hype incoming about May 1st, if not sooner, based on resources. Look for promo in places that target GenY, or that [people THINK GenY pays attention to.
My (highly jaded) $.02
There WAS a rumor ... that Hasbro was looking to either sell off, dissolve or cut loose WotC.
Eric Noah said this 2 years ago. Link
On a more serious note ... it is ironic that even yesterday I got some major scoops about the future of D&D. It is sounding like some of our most paranoid fears are in fact in the works.-4E already in the works? Check.
-Even more miniatures-centric? Check.
-Much smaller bundles of game info, packaged and sold separately? Check.
-A plan to possibly sell off RPGs entirely? Check. (Apparently only miniatures and Magic are making any money for WotC).Unfortunately I can't go into how I got the info or who gave it to me. And I don't think even WotC knows when they're going to announce anything. I got the impression that timing such an announcement with GenCon was no longer seen as optimal or necessary. But please take all as unsubstantiated speculation ... as usual!
WotC bought TSR in 1997 and were in turn bought by Hasbro in September 1999. 3e was released in 2000.
I was close, I thought Hasbro bought Wotc in 98.
Kamelion wrote:
WotC bought TSR in 1997 and were in turn bought by Hasbro in September 1999. 3e was released in 2000.I was close, I thought Hasbro bought Wotc in 98.
Thanks for the info. I had thought Hasbro came into the scene in the early Aughts.
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Just a note:
I'm a geek across many veins, I also read and buy comic books.
Over the past 2 years (since I got back into them), I've noticed in most main stream Marvel titles there have been D&D related ads. D&D minis, SW Minis, the guy sitting in front of his computer adverting D&D that first showed up around the time of "Wrath of the Dragon God" and also more recently full page spreads advertising 4e. Nothing spectacular, just blurb about it coming and dark fantasy pictures.
They are marketing, widely, especially at the teen age group which I believe the comic scene is still greatly populated by. Although, I think the majority of people who buy mass quantities of comics today are the adults, especially with the deeper, darker, moral themes that have been present for many years, so they are still targeting most of us.
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There WAS a rumor at Origins last year (heard from two different unofficial sources, one second hand the other third hand, so take with several grains of salt) that Hasbro was looking to either sell off, dissolve or cut loose WotC. Maybe the push for 4E is a compromise "save or die" thing for them?
I'm not a business guru, or anything, but this has been my assumption since it became clear that 4e wasn't really ready but they were pushing it and telling people to stop playing the most successful RPG of all time close to a year before they even expected 4e to launch. They are, IMO, beefing up the bank account of WotC through selling new edition books then are going to jettison the RPG wing of their business (but not the profits they've gained from releasing the new edition). It seems fairly straightforward... what gets WotC the biggest, fastest influx of rpg money? A new edition. From what we've seen of their target demographic they aren't exactly the kind of folks who make life-long customers and they've successfully alienated a sizeable portion of their existing customer base. If you don't care about your existing customers (which are MUCH cheaper to keep than to attract new customers) and you're targeting people for your new product that have some cash but aren't likely to stick with the game even if they start playing (since it's a weaker imitation of something they're already interested in - computer games), that amounts to a "smash and grab" to me. And what always happens after a smash and grab? The running away part. They're probably trying to make a certain amount of money in this fiscal year and maybe next (if they stick around that long) and then they'll dash.
The best I can hope for at this point is that some responsible company picks it up (ie. Paizo). Although I wouldn't be surprised if it's someone more along the lines of WalMart.
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Just a note:
I'm a geek across many veins, I also read and buy comic books.
Over the past 2 years (since I got back into them), I've noticed in most main stream Marvel titles there have been D&D related ads. D&D minis, SW Minis, the guy sitting in front of his computer adverting D&D that first showed up around the time of "Wrath of the Dragon God" and also more recently full page spreads advertising 4e. Nothing spectacular, just blurb about it coming and dark fantasy pictures.
They are marketing, widely, especially at the teen age group which I believe the comic scene is still greatly populated by. Although, I think the majority of people who buy mass quantities of comics today are the adults, especially with the deeper, darker, moral themes that have been present for many years, so they are still targeting most of us.
I've been looking for 4th edition advertising or teasers in Comics and I haven't seen any yet. I would also expect some stuff on G4 too.
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RPG Superstar 2008 Top 8
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I've been looking for 4th edition advertising or teasers in Comics and I haven't seen any yet. I would also expect some stuff on G4 too.
I apologize, I was incorrect. I saw the Ads in Dark Horse comics, not Marvel.
There are 3 Hasbro ads in Star Wars Legacy issue 18: One for D&D (claiming to be the only company to offer both dungeons and dragons in fantasy roleplaying since 1974), One for the Desert of Desolation miniatures expansion (calling for "A Miniature Evolution" and showing the visual progression of the Troll through various editions of D&D as spotlighted in that horrible 4e announcement video with the obnoxious Frenchman), and lastly one for the Force Unleashed Star Wars miniatures expansion.
I'd last read the comic bout a month back so my memory was a little hazy, but the Dungeons of Dread ad struck me as 4th Ed, with the trolls and the "evolution" remark and the fact of Dungeons of Dread being the first 4th edition compatible miniatures set.
Well said. This is the best post on how Hasbro has handled marketing for 4.0 so far. Your point on it taking established players to bring on new players is dead on. The game is too complicated even with the dummied down 4.0 rules set to allow for one to just pick up a book and start playing. I am one of the thirty somethings that starting playing when I was 6 until I went to high school. I picked up the game again in 2000 because my free time opened up and I remembered how much fun the game was. 3.0 and later 3.5 were great systems and alot of fun to play. It was also easy to quickly learn the rules. I now have kids and am thinking of introducing them to D&D, but I don't have time to learn the 4.0 rules set and frankly I am not too thrilled about the new setting. It is unfamiliar to me, so it would take alot of work to fit it into the settings I am used to. I was about to go out an purchase some 3.5 books and get my kids started with some minis, but I actually found a better alternative. I've been playing Drakon and Cave Troll from fanatasy flight games with my kids (ages 5 and 6) and they love it. I'll try Runebound with them around Christmas and Descent next year. (both game series are produced by Fantasy Flight Games) Maybe by 2009 or 2010 Hasbro will come up with something that is closer to the D&D I am used to.
One thing that I beleive you missed is how WoTC has handled the RPGA and the end of Living City, Living Greyhawk, and Living Kalamaar. All three living campaigns will be discontinured this year (Living City was discontinued last year) and the expectation is that these same living players will play the new 4.0 living setting in the Forgotten Realms. I know few people that play LG that want to take the leap. I believe there is a huge opportunity to sell core books that is being missed by Hasbro.
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One thing that I beleive you missed is how WoTC has handled the RPGA and the end of Living City, Living Greyhawk, and Living Kalamaar. All three living campaigns will be discontinured this year (Living City was discontinued last year) and the expectation is that these same living players will play the new 4.0 living setting in the Forgotten Realms. I know few people that play LG that want to take the leap. I believe there is a huge opportunity to sell core books that is being missed by Hasbro.
Actually, Living City has been defunct since about 2003. A lot of former LC players never got onto the LG bandwagon and were never satisfied with RPGA's "Campaigns" system (with level bumps and set campaign durations) and have been coming out of the woodwork at the announcement of the new "Living Forgotten Realms" for 4E, even with the announced changes to the campaign world.
There are a bunch of ways Living Greyhawk players are reacting to the 4E annoucement and the end of the LG campaign. Some are continuing on as if nothing is happening, others have already stopped playing because they don't see the point of continuing to play in a campaign that is going to end. I would estimate that a majority of LG players will at least try LFR if only because, for a lot of them, the tournament style of play that RPGA provides is their best opportunity to play, regardless of ruleset. Whether they continue playing will depend on the 4E rules and the implemention of the Living Campaign.
Rob Little
Here's the secret and what is being missed: it almost always requires current players to recruit new players.So, unless the strategy involves serious thought on how to recruit new players and GMs it is flawed. Outside of Gleemax, which is a really poor geeky version of myspace, I am not seeing that attempt made well, or more importantly, specific products targeted to acquire the right bandwidth of kids. Now I don't have a silver bullet here and none of us do. I am solid enough of a marketing professional to think that if I had the right market research and sales data I could float a couple of ideas, but the issue here is a huge one...
tadkil,
Awesome post. Very well written and an extremely interesting read. Your comment about requiring current players to recruit new players is dead on. I've come to a similar conclusion, although I take it a step further and make this statement:
WOTC seems to be missing this: Recruiting new players to D&D almost always requires existing players, and keeping players requires good GM's.
Good GM'ing is about much more than a ruleset. I've played campaigns using a game system that I didn't particularly like, but enjoyed myself the entire time because of the skill of the person running the game. Likewise, I've been involved in games where I liked the rules but was bored and frustrated at the game because the GM was poor. WOTC seems to think that simplifying the ruleset will suddenly allow tons more people to run games, thus bringing in tons more players, all of whom will shell out the bucks to support 4E. Wrong, wrong, wrong.
Certainly there may be some folks who are already good GM's who come back to D&D because they want a more rules-lite environment. But I highly doubt that some huge new wave of Gen-Y GM's will suddenly appear to drag all their friends away from MMORPG's and video games.
D&D is a strange product in that you can shell out a bunch of $$$ yet you only have a portion of what you need for the gaming experience. You need to find fellow players, and most importantly, a good GM before you can begin to realize the entertainment you've invested your $$$ on. Good GM'ing requires a lot of diverse skills, rules-knowledge being only part. You can't go from zerio GM'ing experience, read a DMG, then suddenly run a great campaign. Compare that to a someone playing WoW. Creative folks at Blizzard have already created the gaming experience, you just need to pay some $ and *poof* you're having fun.
I'm not saying MMORPG's are better than D&D. I think they are different animals. The MMORPG's appeal to a broad range of people, with many of the ranks filled by the casual gamers. RPG's like D&D appeal to people who want more creative input and control over their gaming experience. But, fun RPG's probably require a significantly greater knowledge investment from players - and certainly from GM's - than the gaming experience provided by MMORPG's and their ilk. Subsequently, attracting a smaller portion of the overall gaming population.
I don't understand why WOTC fails to realize this point. Just because millions of people are paying a subscription each month to participate in one of the many MMORPG's avaiable today doesn't mean a modified ruleset can attract that many people to become paying D&D subscribers. I say subscribers, because that is exactly how I see the Digital Initiative. Just one more revenue stream.
Great insight - thanks for that :-)
Scott Rouse recently said on Enworld (in a thread called something like "Love the Game, Hate the Marketing" or something like that) that the real marketing drive for 4e hasn't started yet, and that they haven't really dug very deeply into their marketing budget at all (I may be misquoting him here, can't recall 100%.)
My guess is this - they don't have access to a real marketing budget yet, so have to do what they can "on their own time" until closer to release (when Hasbro will likely dig deep into their pockets and create a push that is unprecedented in the industry), so are doing their own marketing. Clearly, none of them have a very strong background in this area, so their efforts come out as amatuerish at best and offensive at worst...
The slick, professional ads will come, unless Hasbro decides to bail on the product for some inane reason at the last minute.
Where are these "slick" ads going to appear? There's no more Dragon and Dungeon magazines to advertise in. I doubt that TV is an option. If they go that route the WOW will eat them alive. I don't play WOW, but their ads are clever. What can WoTC do for a TV ad? Whip out the insulting "grapple sucks" ad with the foreign observer. More "The game is the same" BS?
It seems to me that the best they will be able to do is put more animated cartoons about game changes on their website. They could also flood stores with promtional minis, adventures, displays, and posters. I don't see how any of that is going to attract new gamers. At least Dungeon and Dragon magazines could be found at Borders, Barnes & Nobles, and other major book stores.
I don't think there is a real marketing plan. This one is being done on the cheap for sure.
You may want to take a look at the latest press release on Hasbro's performance. They had a banner year in 07. Revenue and profits were at an all time high. There was no mention of WoTC, or Dungeons and Dragons in any of their press releases. The one nugget of information in their announcements cited price increases on all products accross the board to offset production costs and maintain profit growth. Get ready to pony of for those 4.0 books. My guess is that the DMG II, PHB II, and MM II will cost $50.00 retail in 09.
If you don't care about your existing customers (which are MUCH cheaper to keep than to attract new customers) and you're targeting people for your new product that have some cash but aren't likely to stick with the game even if they start playing (since it's a weaker imitation of something they're already interested in - computer games), that amounts to a "smash and grab" to me. And what always happens after a smash and grab? The running away part. They're probably trying to make a certain amount of money in this fiscal year and maybe next (if they stick around that long) and then they'll dash.
The best I can hope for at this point is that some responsible company picks it up (ie. Paizo). Although I wouldn't be surprised if it's someone more along the lines of WalMart.
This is a sound observation. Hasbro is making a killing off the Transformers line and with a Transformers sequal and a G.I. Joe movie coming out next year they seem to be getting back to their core competency which is making toys.
It also looks like their ready to jetison WoTC or at least the Dungeons and Dragons brand. Their staff has been reduced a great deal since the 3.0 release. A number of publications have been pulled from the shelves or cancelled. Licenses for materials have either been revoked or cancelled as well. I bet the lease on the WoTC office in Washington runs out at the end of 09.
The "smash" is the relase of 4.0. The "grab" will be taking your money and then selling WoTC or D&D and letting the owner of the copyrighted content try and pick up the pieces. At least WoTC will be cheap if 4.0 fails as most expect.
If they are truly going down this path look for an announcement that the Digital Iniative will be scaled back or cancelled. I always thought this part of the strategy was a pipe dream or at most something to catch our attention. Most people who know WoTC know that they have a lousy track record releasing any of their copyrighted material electronically.
IMO, the smartest ad move they could make is have someone appear on the Colbert Report and let Stephen talk about his days as a D&D gamer and try to sell him on the game.
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RPG Superstar 2008 Top 8
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WotC bought TSR in 1997 and were in turn bought by Hasbro in September 1999. 3e was released in 2000.I was close, I thought Hasbro bought Wotc in 98.As did I!
On the Living City thing - from what I've been seeing the "non-RPGA" and "semi-RPGA" Living Campaigns have been doing better than the RPGA ones for the last three years:
Legends of the Shining Jewel
Living Arcanis... Gyah - there's at least two others, I'm drawing a blank though... is Xen'Drik Expeditions one?
And as for the "shift to MMORPGs" - it might be a desperate attempt to save the RPG arm; Hasbro may well have said: "Bring in X amount of profit, any way you can, or RPGs become a side-light, given just enough attention to keep the trademarks active and not a penny/second beyond that."
Dave Arneson's Backmoor (PIMP IT!) Megacon: Orlando, FL March 6-9!
Fellowship of the White Star (Pimping it too! Also at Megacon!) (1905 AD Horror d20 RPG)
It's hard (impossible?) to get a clear view on how successful this early marketing has been, though. The nature of the internet seems to me to make any attempt at gathering data futile. Go to the 4e forum on Enworld and there is a majority of support for 4e, with a sizeable minority of detractors. Here at Paizo those percentages seem to be reversed. And I can't really make much sense of the WotC forums either way. Judging by previous editions, a healthy number of fans will make the change, and I guess WotC are banking on there being enough to ensure fresh blood keeps coming into the hobby. But it seems too soon to tell. It may well be the case that WotC has missed the mark with this one. D&D's survival is no more a sure thing than any other brand on the market, and seems to me to be more precarious than most.
To be more precise, the RPG portion of the D&D brand is in a precarious situation. The margins on the product are smaller than minis, novels, and other such merchandise (which continue to do well and, with CCGs, make up WotC's core profits). Also, with the downturn in WotC's RPG sales over the past couple years (especially from the 3.0 period), there are indications that the RPG division of WotC hasn't been making enough money to keep Hasbro happy.
From what I can tell, the 3.5 line is still making money, but the RPG division has probably been directed to increase profits by the end of 2008. I doubt 4e will fail (in the sense of losing WotC money), but I think it will only be a modest success that doesn't reach the same level as 3.0 did.
Haven't read the thread linked above on OGL/GSL - will give it a look. But on the face of it, killing off the competition seems like perfectly sensible business tactics to me. I really don't know how successful the OGL was for WotC at the bottom line. Food for thought :-)...
Check out this thread as well. It contains a link to and discussion of an article that Monte Cook wrote in 2006, providing an insider's look at the OGL and its effect on the RPG industry.