I want to create a random encounter table for an urban center (a major city specifically) but I'm uncertain where to start. What should the flat d20 DC be for an urban center? What modifiers would change that DC? And crucially, what sort of hazards and enemies could you encounter?
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I almost never roll on random encounter tables, though one notable exception is chronicled in Quora As a DM, how often do you lie about your dice rolls, and why? Instead, I used random encounter tables as a list of suggestions for planned encounters. So my ideas will be a list rather than a table.
Another problem is that the random encounters are designed to give the flavor of a region. If the region is wilderness, then the party will encounter wild animals and beasts. If the region is a national border, then the party will encounter foreign soldiers on raids. Even cities have individual flavor. A thriving port city will have encounters with rowdy sailors on shore leave and thieves breaking into warehouses, but a capital of a corrupt nation will have palace guards abusing their authority and secret powers behind the throne mistaking the party for competitors.
One such corrupt capital city was Starfall in Palace of Fallen Stars. I view its random encounter table as flawed, because it mixed together the urban encounters inside Starfall's city walls and the wilderness encounters outside the city walls and because its CR 12-14 random encounters that were supposed to happen with a "35% chance of a random encounter every hour they spend in the city" would have killed off most of the citizens of Starfall. Nevertheless, I consulted it a lot due to derailed plot circumstances, because the 12th-level party had split up (Inconspicuous PCs Unmotivated in Palace of Fallen Stars).
I started with "Roll 26–30: 1d12 palace guards; average CR 12." Two palace guards (human barbarian 8) were bullying a sausage vendor, not only stealing his sausages but also smashing his cart. A similar encounter could happen at any level, not just 12th level, but it requires a party of dedicated do-gooders to get involved.
The next random encounter was truly random. Kheld, the same character who had foolishly wandered nearly alone in my Quora story and ran into a 00 random encounter, did the same thing in scouting nearly alone outside Starfall, "Roll 99–102: Sinister Scientist; CR 14." The Sinister Scientist was an enhanced PF1 Worm That Walks. Fortunately, this time the fighter/investigator Kheld had his wizard Leadership cohort Juran with him and they teleported to safety. I had the Sinister Scientist cast Confusion on Juran initially, so Kheld had to hold off the worm for 3 rounds until Juran recovered. This could be adapted to any urban setting as a mad scientist (maybe use the Surgeon as a template) seeking a stranger in town as a victim that no-one would miss.
The PC Kirii had moved into Starfall's slum, healing the sick. I used "Roll 05–09: 1d4 bogeymen; average CR 12." Three bogeymen had secretly moved into an abandoned building and were tormenting the neighborhood children with nightmares. Kirii gathered together the party and cleared out the bogeymen. This can be adapted to other levels because PF2 bogeymen come in levels 3, 6, and 10. If the PCs stay in a comfortable inn rather than in a borrowed bed in a slum temple, then have them overhear a maid in the inn talking about her son's nightmares.
I had also considered using "Roll 73–77: 1d6 ash giants; average CR 14." Starfall businessmen used non-human slaves, androids for technical work and giants for labor. Sometimes they had a slave revolt, or simply a reluctant slave having a temper tantrum. Slavery is seldom mentioned in recent Paizo adventures, but an abused domestic animal, such as an elephant, could go on a rampage. Another consideration was "Roll 01–04: 1d20 barbarian gargoyles; average CR 12." Though this is a wilderness encounter with the gargoyles living on nearby Silver Mount, those creatures could fly over the city walls to attack in the urban setting. Any flying wilderness monster could fit this niche.
When the magus Elric infiltrated the evil Technic League to discover their secrets, I reversed the encounter "Roll 16–22: Elite Technic League Patrol: average CR 12," by sending Elric out on those patrols. He had to follow orders while trying to protect innocent people. Nevertheless, any city will have guard patrols. Even if the city is respectable with decent guards, some guards will be biased against freelance adventurers and give the party a hard time.
Starfall has no thief random encounters, but that is a common trope. A mugging in an alley, a pickpocket clumsy enough to be spotted after he grabs the coin purse, or a burglar sneaking into the inn room hoping to steal from sleeping rich adventurers could all be encounters.
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What they said.
Older D&D modules routinely had lists too, for the few that featured cities that is, and might be free online. The City of Greyhawk campaign stuff and module A4 are a couple off the top of my head which had lists. There's one where the party infiltrates the the capital of Iuz (demonic ruler w/ country of same name) if you want high-level, unholy dangers plus a decent system for detection & retribution by authorities. Apologies for forgetting its name.
That said, I'll lean into what Mathmuse suggested, where you can take most any list you do find and adapt it to suit the levels & themes of the city, but that even better is to work from a list. I've done this often to great effect, where I have several plot-connected encounters to choose from which aren't connected to specific locales. A few might merely be window dressing to demonstrate dangerous territory (where one can't expect to bide one's time!) and to set up some iconic fantasy encounters, but most will be creatures with backstories & motivations. And some of those will be innocuous albeit relevant, kinda like window dressing, but linked to larger themes, entities, organizations, etc. (like Mathmuse gave some examples of). Or one might create choices for the PCs where there's little combat threat, but what's the moral path? What impact might adventurer wealth have on the (real?) orphan stealing food? (Negative as well as positive.) I'm thinking in terms of a campaign I ran where the party worked out of the same city, so long term consequences mattered. I wouldn't add such distractions to a tourist stop unless its triggers had immediate ramifications.
And rather than roll off the list, I typically roll 2d20 and look at the lower to get a feel for danger level (or higher if itching for a battle or in hostile territory). Note the numbers are vibes, not encounter levels! Though I did roll 2 20s (after rolling a 1 to even have an encounter) while the party was resting some miles from a legendary dragon's lair. They scurry-teleported out of there ASAP. :-)
ETA: Much like Starfall's situation above, the main issue I have with city encounters is the realism. How tough do citizens have to be?! How special is the party if challenged in mundane settings? Maybe make it known these are unusual or specifically targeting the party (or their sensibilities which citizens lack) or more a matter of RPing or so on.