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So we are going on a dragon hunt and I want to get a feel for how many rounds we can prepare as it approaches (assuming not invisible and flying out in the open at 200ft fly speed).
With a +30 perception, the rules state I auto succeed seeing him at 300ft, but for every 10' beyond that, there is a chance I don't until I can't at 500ft (or about there depending on ambient conditions).
What kind of modifiers would be in place to account for the fact that it is as big as a house and flying right at me? (rules as written would be great, but also reasonable interpretations you would make as a gm)
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Stealth requires the use of cover or concealment.
Breaking Stealth: When you start your turn using Stealth, you can leave cover or concealment and remain unobserved as long as you succeed at a Stealth check and end your turn in cover or concealment.
Unless there is a fog bank, the dragon is flying from cloud to cloud, or Nap-of-the-earth, it is hard to conceal a flying creature. Especially a huge one with poor maneuverability (Terrain features like hills and mountains can change that).
To Oli: the Perception rules work badly in this situation (RAW, it is impossible to see the Moon or the Sun). Assuming that the dragon is flying in the open and that the PCs are reasonably attentive, the best comparison is with RL, the distance at which you will notice a moving truck.
If the dragon is flying Nap-of-the-earth instead, perception, as depicted by Pizza Lord, matters. In that situation, you use opposed perception checks.
Funnily enough, you could argue that the color of the dragon can allow it to just have cover: a blue or cloud dragon does blend in with the sky, white with clouds, etc. but the camouflage mechanic doesn't really have to do with actual color-camouflage.
Another thing to consider is that the game doesn't handle "distance penalties" really well at all. Like imagine a human sized creature, 1200 ft. away, the max range of a heavy crossbow (2,400ft if it is a distance H crossbow) and how small that human is, you probably wouldn't be able to pick it out from anything else in their backdrop. But by the game, they're obviously in the open and automatically spotted. Also, you only take a -10 to -20 to hit them in an already small weak point in whatever armor they are wearing.
You can maybe just chalk that up to "what can you see with your elven eyes Legolas..." style power levels of any character that can overcome that -20 to snipe a guy from half a mile away with a pre-machining quality projectile, but you can also go the other way to some degree and acknowledge that every combat in the outdoors is not going to start at the max range of the highest range side of the fight because the players are perfectly conscious of every spec of color in their 360* field of view at all times. The GM can just set a decent range of engagement, describe some vague terrain that enabled the sudden appearance in line of sight to the enemy, and just go from there.
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Actually, there are a set of rules that I totally forgot.
The "Stealth and Detection in a (type of terrain)" rules in the CRB.
Stealth and Detection in a Forest: In a sparse forest, the maximum distance at which a Perception check for detecting the nearby presence of others can succeed is 3d6 × 10 feet. In a medium forest, this distance is 2d8 × 10 feet, and in a dense forest it is 2d6 × 10 feet.
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Stealth and Detection in a Marsh: In a marsh, the maximum distance at which a Perception check for detecting the nearby presence of others can succeed is 6d6 × 10 feet. In a swamp, this distance is 2d8 × 10 feet.
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Stealth and Detection in Hills: In gentle hills, the maximum distance at which a Perception check for detecting the nearby presence of others can succeed is 2d10 × 10 feet. In rugged hills, this distance is 2d6 × 10 feet.
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Stealth and Detection in Mountains: As a guideline, the maximum distance in mountain terrain at which a Perception check for detecting the nearby presence of others can succeed is 4d10 × 10 feet. Certain peaks and ridgelines afford much better vantage points, of course, and twisting valleys and canyons have much shorter spotting distances. Because there’s little vegetation to obstruct line of sight, the specifics on your map are your best guide for the range at which an encounter could begin. As in hills terrain, a ridge or peak provides enough cover to hide from anyone below the high point.
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Stealth and Detection in the Desert: In general, the maximum distance in desert terrain at which a Perception check for detecting the nearby presence of others can succeed is 6d6 × 20 feet; beyond this distance, elevation changes and heat distortion in warm deserts makes sight-based Perception impossible. The presence of dunes in sandy deserts limits spotting distance to 6d6 × 10 feet.
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Stealth and Detection in Plains: In plains terrain, the maximum distance at which a Perception check for detecting the nearby presence of others can succeed is 6d6 × 40 feet, although the specifics of your map might restrict line of sight.
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Stealth and Detection Underwater: How far you can see underwater depends on the water’s clarity. As a guideline, creatures can see 4d8 × 10 feet if the water is clear, and 1d8 × 10 feet if it’s murky. Moving water is always murky, unless it’s in a particularly large, slow-moving river.
Not particularly realistic, and they don't care about the opponent's size, but those are the official spotting distances.
The difference here is that this is essentially just a randomizer for the terrain being a direct physical obstruction to the thing you would otherwise perceive in a flat, empty plain. Just because you're in ankle deep swamp water, doesn't mean that you would or wouldn't see dragon X-hundred or even thousand feet directly above you.
But if we are assuming the players are hunting a dragon that can massively out pace them, and not being hunted by the dragon, you're best and only bet is just catching it in its cave, where your vision is just limited by the line of sight of said cave.
The easiest way to handle it would be to treat each size category larger than medium as a favorable condition. Basically, reduce the DC to spot the dragon by -2 per size category above medium. -2 for large, -4 for huge, -6 Gargantuan and so on.
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The difference here is that this is essentially just a randomizer for the terrain being a direct physical obstruction to the thing you would otherwise perceive in a flat, empty plain. Just because you're in ankle deep swamp water, doesn't mean that you would or wouldn't see dragon X-hundred or even thousand feet directly above you.
The problem is that assume that the dragon is taking a "stroll" by flying around without any care.
Old dragons are powerful, but Golarion is a world full of danger, and before becoming old dragons are relatively weak. Most of those that survive learn caution.
Ok, different approach. At what size does something require a perception check from 10ft away? Are there any specific dimensions for traps and the like?
As Deigo noted, perception isn't really used to notice a creature that isn't trying to hide. Perception is used primarly to detect things that are hidden (traps usually are, along with stealthed creatures), or to notice fine details in the environment (say a wall fresco with a small gem in place of the eye of one creature, roll perception to notice there is a gem for the eye).
So for your trap example, the DC to spot the trap is going to be set by the GM, based on how hard they want it to be for the party to find the trap. It being larger or smaller is irrelevent, as it is entirely up to the GM to determine the difficulty.