But orcs are a "staple" D&D foe, you'd think they'd balance such a creature accordingly.Not orcs. Ferocity is a potentially overpowering ability, as you point out, and the falchion is one of the best weapons in the game. Re-run your math with goblins or skeletons instead and you'll probably be much happier.I don't *like* the defaults, though. What are "normal encounters"?When you scale your foes accordingly, your PCs don't need 50 PB. It really doesn't take all that much to hit an orc commoner with no armor and 8 dex, for example.When you use standard 15/20 point-buy, you don't have to scale your NPCs in either direction. You can just use normal encounters. It's a real time-saver.
Yeah, so the design team screwed up one monster. They actually screwed up several monsters -- orcs aren't the only mistakes -- but the overall structure still makes sense.
And there are 26 monsters with CR 1/3 that Paizo has published, so even treating orcs as CR 1 still leaves you with 96.2% of the monsters that you can use as-is. There are also 59 CR 1/2 creatures, and 16 CR 1/4 creatures, so I don't really think you're starved for choice there. Given that it's only supposed to take about 20 encounters before you advance to second level,... there's enough material there to let nearly five different groups advance from first to second level without repeating a monster. (ETA: all numbers taken from d20pfsrd.com, discounting third party material. We are not responsible for, and expressly disclaims all liability for, damages of any kind arising out of use, reference to, or reliance on any information contained within the site. While the information contained within the site is periodically updated, no guarantee is given that the information provided in this post is correct, complete, and up-to-date. Rotate your tires.)
Take the standard orc: http://www.d20pfsrd.com/bestiary/monster-listings/humanoids/orcs/orc
Melee falchion +5 (2d4+4/18–20)
At level 1, the party's AC will average what, in a 20 PB? 14? 15? 16? That's a 50% chance to hit, give or take. For 2d4+4 damage, so minimum of 6 damage, and maximum of 12 damage. How much hit points does a lvl 1 PC have? Take a d8 class, he'll probably have 6-10 HP, depending on if he rolls or you give max or average. So on the minimum scale, the orc has about 50% chance of one-shotting him on the lowest dice roll, and on the max HP scale, he can still, again, one-shot him on the roll.
A CR 1/3 will basically kill a PC every second or third round, depending on who they target and how generous you were to your PCs. For an "average" encounter, you'll have 3, if I understand the CR rules correctly? So if you've got the Tanks up front and he gets focused fired, odds are very high he will be downed on round 1, otherwise on round 2.
So, let us take your orc vs a 1st lvl fighter. 10 HP, +2 con +1 favored class= 13. Ac 10+ 4 +2 =16. +6/+5 to hit, with greatsword.
The orc hits 45% of the time, doing 8 pts.
Let's assume they both hit first round.
The fighter hits 60% of the time, doing 14pts, the orc would drop , except it gets a second chance with ferocity.
Let's assume they both miss round 2.
Orc dead, fighter wounded.
The wizard drops two with color spray or sleep. (will -1, right?)
Leaving one more orc to fight the cleric and the rogue.
Hits the rogue, doing 8 pts of 11. Rogue hits doing 7pts. the orc would drop , except it gets a second chance with ferocity.
Cleric heals rogue, doing 6 pts*. Even if orc hits round 2, rogue is still not dead.
Orc misses. Dead orc.
Rogue CdG two colorsprayed orcs.
No PC dead.
*Or channels, healing fighter and rogue each 4pts. If so, then even if orc #1 hits Fighter round 2 for another 8 pts, fighter is still up, but hurting.
Note also the fighters 15% higher chance to hit and 6 more damage.
Yeah, it's not so much those orcs being too strong for their CR; it's them being class cannons. Which, in combination with the low HP-to-weapon-damage ration at first level, means they can turn a lvl1 fight into rocket tag.
Not a smart design move.