
Rednal |

Also, another update.
Senator Susan Collins (R, Maine) will not be supporting Donald Trump. I think her letter there is worth the read.

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The state level polls have actually gotten worse for Trump since last week. Now they're showing he could potentially lose South Carolina and Missouri (in addition to Georgia & Arizona).
The fivethirtyeight nowcast is giving Clinton a better chance to win Georgia than Trump has to win Texas. The mind boggles.

Turin the Mad |
1 person marked this as a favorite. |

Turin the Mad wrote:I'm not counting Trump out until the morning of November 9th, or he quits the race, whichever happens first. ;)What if he sidesteps this by making his own election and own presidency?
He's as entitled as anyone else with the means to purchase an unclaimed island and proclaim himself Emperor of Trumpistan. If there are any. ;)

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Rysky wrote:He's as entitled as anyone else with the means to purchase an unclaimed island and proclaim himself Emperor of Trumpistan. If there are any. ;)Turin the Mad wrote:I'm not counting Trump out until the morning of November 9th, or he quits the race, whichever happens first. ;)What if he sidesteps this by making his own election and own presidency?
I'm more worried about him trying to do it on the already claimed stuff.

thejeff |
1 person marked this as a favorite. |
Rysky wrote:He's as entitled as anyone else with the means to purchase an unclaimed island and proclaim himself Emperor of Trumpistan. If there are any. ;)Turin the Mad wrote:I'm not counting Trump out until the morning of November 9th, or he quits the race, whichever happens first. ;)What if he sidesteps this by making his own election and own presidency?
Hell, he can call himself President of the US if he wants, as long as no one official listens to him.
Though, given his comments about the election being rigged and stolen from him, that's perhaps not so much a joke as I first thought. I could see Trump just declaring it was rigged and that he really was the President and then riling up his followers to against the illegitimate crook who stole it from him.

Kobold Catgirl |

Kobold Cleaver wrote:Thoughts?How about spending time working to get voters registered and helping a local campaign?
Jokes aren't going to get anti-Trump voters to the polls. And even an hour here and there can make a difference.
The two are not mutually exclusive. We need to take care of ourselves. For some of us, that means telling jokes to lighten the mood of despair.
Also, I live in Oregon. Aside from calling people out-of-state, whatever I do here is pretty much worthless. Hooray for the electoral college!
Speaking of mood of despair, Trump just advocated assassination if Hillary tries to take away "gun rights". Yeehaw.

Turin the Mad |

It is ridiculously unlikely that enough Trumpkins exist that would be willing to undertake a civil war, let alone a military coup.
In a way, elections are rigged. In that it is blatantly and heavily favoring the majority parties and whomever they decide to nominate, and has been ever increasingly so since at least 1913 or thereabouts.
The "lesser" parties and independents haven't participated in presidential/vice-presidential debates since 2000. The League of Women Voters stopped hosting these debates in 1988 when the majority parties, according to the LoWV, co-opted these debates. The minor parties have been given extremely difficult-to-attain thresholds before being permitted the dubious honor of gracing a debate stage. On the exceedingly rare occasion when a minor party did so before 2000, the majority parties moved the goal posts and co-opt their planks. Co-opting the competition's 'good idea' planks strikes me as a valid strategy.
In current dollars, it is estimated that attaining 15% poll ratings would cost a minor party roughly $250M. That's not chump change, not even for billionaires, let alone for minor parties. An incredibly expensive gamble to just get a participation podium on a TV debate!
Advocated assassination? Linkies, please?

Rednal |

He's suggested "Second Amendment People" could stop her from picking undesirable Supreme Court Justices.

Kobold Catgirl |

A military coup, no. Trump has no friends among the military. But riots? Militia uprisings? In the era of Cliven Bundy, do you really think it's so unlikely?
American history is an armed insurrection circa 1776. With help from France, the insurrection won.
Is there a point to this statement?

Rednal |
3 people marked this as a favorite. |

Let's see, if we get a running tally, he's:
>Claimed that the election is already rigged against him
>Asked a foreign government to hack his competitor and steal valuable information
>Encouraged shooting his opponent and/or her nominees to federal positions
>Indicated he would not support our international allies, and has praised countries we're not terribly good friends with
And to think, Republicans usually do well on security issues. He really can get away with saying anything... among his supporters, anyway.

Turin the Mad |

CrystalSeas wrote:Kobold Cleaver wrote:Thoughts?How about spending time working to get voters registered and helping a local campaign?
Jokes aren't going to get anti-Trump voters to the polls. And even an hour here and there can make a difference.
The two are not mutually exclusive. We need to take care of ourselves. For some of us, that means telling jokes to lighten the mood of despair.
Also, I live in Oregon. Aside from calling people out-of-state, whatever I do here is pretty much worthless. Hooray for the electoral college!
Not quite, KC. According to this Oregon is one of the 30 out of 51 states with electoral college votes that are bound to vote in accordance with that state's winner of the popular vote.
Can't readily determine whom the electors are, but then, those don't have to be determined until 70 days out from the election... :)

Kobold Catgirl |

I know how my state works. I also know that the Willamette Valley will beat everyone surrounding them into azure paste.
See, Eastern Oregon is highly conservative. It will not matter this year. It will likely never matter in my lifetime. They're too sparse. And too environmental—those who hate Clinton will probably just vote for Stein. This is why the Eastern Oregonians want to join Idaho, you know.
My vote for president does not matter. My neighbors' votes do not, either. That's the curse of living in a blue state.

Irontruth |

I think Trump's campaign is finally starting to implode. I'm not gonna count him out - he's shown an amazing ability to overcome such expectations - but it seems people are really starting to turn away from him now that the general election has started.
Something to remember, while many experts did indeed count Trump out... he's been the leading Republican candidate since August 2015. A couple of minor blips, but once he took the lead, no one jumped ahead of him for more than a few days (if at all). Ben Carson had a strong showing in October, but since then, Trump dominated Republican polls.
Everyone gave reasons why it wouldn't last. They turned out to be wrong, but the polls consistently showed him winning the nomination.
Now, lots could happen between now and November 8th. People claiming to predict the future are often wrong. The polls are our best reading of who is most likely to win right now.

Drahliana Moonrunner |

I don't think that there has been a state within the last 120 years whose electors actually went off the reservation.
There has been a move by Republicans to move Electoral college results by congressional district instead of states as a whole. This would give them a tremendous advantage over urban voters. They want to break up California for simmilar advantage.

thejeff |
It is ridiculously unlikely that enough Trumpkins exist that would be willing to undertake a civil war, let alone a military coup.
In a way, elections are rigged. In that it is blatantly and heavily favoring the majority parties and whomever they decide to nominate, and has been ever increasingly so since at least 1913 or thereabouts.
The "lesser" parties and independents haven't participated in presidential/vice-presidential debates since 2000. The League of Women Voters stopped hosting these debates in 1988 when the majority parties, according to the LoWV, co-opted these debates. The minor parties have been given extremely difficult-to-attain thresholds before being permitted the dubious honor of gracing a debate stage. On the exceedingly rare occasion when a minor party did so before 2000, the majority parties moved the goal posts and co-opt their planks. Co-opting the competition's 'good idea' planks strikes me as a valid strategy.
In current dollars, it is estimated that attaining 15% poll ratings would cost a minor party roughly $250M. That's not chump change, not even for billionaires, let alone for minor parties. An incredibly expensive gamble to just get a participation podium on a TV debate!
While what you've said is true, it's sort of misleading. Third parties and independents didn't participate in debates before 2000 either. In 2000, Perot joined the debates, partly because Bush wanted him there. In 1980, Anderson debated Reagan in one debate, which Carter boycotted. That's it.
As for the cost, while that sounds like a lot of money to me, it is chump change compared to actually running a competitive campaign for President. Is the point of the Presidential debates to give away airtime or to help American voters actually choose the next President?

Kobold Catgirl |
1 person marked this as a favorite. |

I don't think that there has been a state within the last 120 years whose electors actually went off the reservation.
There has been a move by Republicans to move Electoral college results by congressional district instead of states as a whole. This would give them a tremendous advantage over urban voters. They want to break up California for simmilar advantage.
Good god. They literally hate democracy. Gerrymandering our districts wasn't enough?
Maine actually has a push right now for ranked-choice balloting. This year is probably the best advertisement for that kind of system you're ever going to get.

Kobold Catgirl |
1 person marked this as a favorite. |

K-Cleaver,
God I hope milita uprising don't happen. Cause if they do, I'm starting my own based on King Arthur and the Knights of the Round Table.
I'm in favor of electing James Jacobs as our King. :p :)
The guy is weak on monstrous races' rights, and I worry he's going to overprioritize Chelaxian issues.

Petty Alchemy RPG Superstar Season 9 Top 16 |

Rednal wrote:I think Trump's campaign is finally starting to implode. I'm not gonna count him out - he's shown an amazing ability to overcome such expectations - but it seems people are really starting to turn away from him now that the general election has started.Something to remember, while many experts did indeed count Trump out... he's been the leading Republican candidate since August 2015. A couple of minor blips, but once he took the lead, no one jumped ahead of him for more than a few days (if at all). Ben Carson had a strong showing in October, but since then, Trump dominated Republican polls.
Everyone gave reasons why it wouldn't last. They turned out to be wrong, but the polls consistently showed him winning the nomination.
Now, lots could happen between now and November 8th. People claiming to predict the future are often wrong. The polls are our best reading of who is most likely to win right now.

thejeff |
I don't think that there has been a state within the last 120 years whose electors actually went off the reservation.
There has been a move by Republicans to move Electoral college results by congressional district instead of states as a whole. This would give them a tremendous advantage over urban voters. They want to break up California for simmilar advantage.
Note: There has been a move to do so by Republicans in states where they control the legislature, but that reliably go Democratic in Presidential elections. They have not done so in Red States they control outright.
There has also been a (largely Democratic) movement to have states assign their electoral college voters to the winner of the national popular vote. The key is that it would only go into effect once 270 votes worth of states sign on. States representing 165 votes have done so.
As for electors going off the reservation, I wouldn't expect that even with Trump, unless something truly drastic happened between the election and the College voting.

thejeff |
Rednal wrote:I think Trump's campaign is finally starting to implode. I'm not gonna count him out - he's shown an amazing ability to overcome such expectations - but it seems people are really starting to turn away from him now that the general election has started.Something to remember, while many experts did indeed count Trump out... he's been the leading Republican candidate since August 2015. A couple of minor blips, but once he took the lead, no one jumped ahead of him for more than a few days (if at all). Ben Carson had a strong showing in October, but since then, Trump dominated Republican polls.
Everyone gave reasons why it wouldn't last. They turned out to be wrong, but the polls consistently showed him winning the nomination.
Now, lots could happen between now and November 8th. People claiming to predict the future are often wrong. The polls are our best reading of who is most likely to win right now.
Truth. Except that this time, unlike during the primaries, the polls agree.
The polls look bad for him, both nationally and swing states. As does the trend of the polls. For the first time, as people outside of the Republican base (or political junkies like us) tune in, the crazy things he says are hurting him.Not just the individual polls either. The prediction markets are dropping. Things like 538's polls+ model are dropping.
All the data and models that actually showed him winning the primary are against him now. But you still hear the "experts counted him out, so don't trust them now".
Of course, this is politics. He could win. He could have that proven Clinton scandal that's been promised since about '96 ready as an October surprise. He could, really for sure this time, pivot away from the craziness and impress everyone with how Presidential and prepared he is. Some crisis could happen and Trump's off the cuff response could be the wildly popular one. Democrats could get complacent and not bother to vote because she's got it in the bag. But the odds are against it. More now than they were a month ago.

Drahliana Moonrunner |

Drahliana Moonrunner wrote:I don't think that there has been a state within the last 120 years whose electors actually went off the reservation.
There has been a move by Republicans to move Electoral college results by congressional district instead of states as a whole. This would give them a tremendous advantage over urban voters. They want to break up California for simmilar advantage.
Good god. They literally hate democracy. Gerrymandering our districts wasn't enough?
Maine actually has a push right now for ranked-choice balloting. This year is probably the best advertisement for that kind of system you're ever going to get.
It's the reason that districts are being gerrymandered in the first place.
They don't hate democracy... they simply just want it to apply to what they consider "Real Americans".

thejeff |
Something occurred to me yesterday. You know how people dislike Hillary because she's been around for 20 years and she's a Washington Insider?
If she were a man, we'd call that "experience."
That ain't the only thing.
Though, to be fair, campaigning against insiders isn't new nor targeted only at men.

Turin the Mad |

Turin the Mad wrote:It is ridiculously unlikely that enough Trumpkins exist that would be willing to undertake a civil war, let alone a military coup.
In a way, elections are rigged. In that it is blatantly and heavily favoring the majority parties and whomever they decide to nominate, and has been ever increasingly so since at least 1913 or thereabouts.
The "lesser" parties and independents haven't participated in presidential/vice-presidential debates since 2000. The League of Women Voters stopped hosting these debates in 1988 when the majority parties, according to the LoWV, co-opted these debates. The minor parties have been given extremely difficult-to-attain thresholds before being permitted the dubious honor of gracing a debate stage. On the exceedingly rare occasion when a minor party did so before 2000, the majority parties moved the goal posts and co-opt their planks. Co-opting the competition's 'good idea' planks strikes me as a valid strategy.
In current dollars, it is estimated that attaining 15% poll ratings would cost a minor party roughly $250M. That's not chump change, not even for billionaires, let alone for minor parties. An incredibly expensive gamble to just get a participation podium on a TV debate!
While what you've said is true, it's sort of misleading. Third parties and independents didn't participate in debates before 2000 either. In 2000, Perot joined the debates, partly because Bush wanted him there. In 1980, Anderson debated Reagan in one debate, which Carter boycotted. That's it.
As for the cost, while that sounds like a lot of money to me, it is chump change compared to actually running a competitive campaign for President. Is the point of the Presidential debates to give away airtime or to help American voters actually choose the next President?
3rd parties didn't have to obtain cherry-picked polling averages before 2000 in addition to getting onto 270 electoral votes' worth of states. 250 million bucks is not chump change when a political party doesn't have pockets that deep.
The point of the debates was to help people decide comparing how the candidates sparred with each other, yet became (at least seemingly so) more airtime for the majority candidates.

Turin the Mad |

He's suggested "Second Amendment People" could stop her from picking undesirable Supreme Court Justices.
This does not translate into assassination. People could do something about it without going anywhere close to such things. Remember the earlier post upthread about how few people call their Congresscritters' offices? :)