So as we all know (or most of us, as sometimes a case crops up where somebody interprets it differently) when you score a critical hit, you multiply the number of weapon damage dice and any bonuses (from strength, magic improvement, power attack etc.), but not any extra dice (like flaming, vital strike or sneak attack)
This results in weapons with high crit ranges being generally considered superior to their peers since that one extra crit in 20 attacks the falchion gets over a greatsword with all those bonuses adds a lot more to the character's average damage, than those 2 extra damage points per regular hit, the greatsword would give you.
What if we took a step in the direction of how crits work in 5e, (but not go all the way, because in 5e crits are almost the direct opposite: you multiply ALL the dice but NOT the static bonuses) and have critical hits only multiply the weapon damage dice and nothing else?
Of course this would mean an all over nerf for martial combat in general, which of course we don't need, but let's just look at the problem in a context where magic doesn't exist. Purely looking at the balance between weapons.
Would it make for example falchions and greatswords about equal in power or would it underpower falchions in comparison to other weapons of its size and type? How would the other types of crits fare, like greataxes and scythes for example?
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Numbers!
Barbarian (Assuming +4 base STR, +6 with rage, +9 because two handed, +12 with power attack):
current rules:
Greatsword:
Non crit: 2d6 (Av 7) + 12 = 19
crit: 2x(2d6 (Av 7) + 12)= 38
chance happening 2/20
average damage in long term: ((18x19)+(2x38))/20=20.9
Falchion:
Non crit: 2d4 (Av 5) + 12 = 17
crit: 2x(2d4 (Av 5) + 12) = 34
chance happening 3/20
average damage in long term: ((17x17)+(3x34))/20=19.55
new rule:
Greatsword:
Non crit: 2d6 (Av 7) + 12 = 19
crit: 2x(2d6 (Av 7)) + 12= 26
chance happening 2/20
average damage in long term: ((18x19)+(2x26))/20=19.7
Falchion:
Non crit: 2d4 (Av 5) + 12 = 17
crit: 2x(2d4 (Av 5)) + 12 = 22
chance happening 3/20
average damage in long term: ((17x17)+(3x22))/20=17.75
I'm tired. Some can error check me and do analysis please. Tomorrow, I'll do extra dice from magic and size.
Thanks for the numbers so far. The part where the high crit weapons become better, is past first level. Especially at the point when you can get improved critical. So let's say the STR bonus is raised by one because our barbarian had two +1s strength and add the extra damage from power attack due to the higher BAB (+8, so the damage bonus is +9)
current rules:
Greatsword:
Non crit: 2d6 (Av 7) + 19 = 26
crit: 2x(2d6 (Av 7) + 19)= 52
chance happening 4/20
average damage in long term: ((16x26)+(4x52))/20=31.2
Falchion:
Non crit: 2d4 (Av 5) + 19 = 24
crit: 2x(2d4 (Av 5) + 19) = 48
chance happening 6/20
average damage in long term: ((14x24)+(6x48))/20=31.2
Okay now that I'm attempting the actual math, it seems like the difference is much smaller than I thought. I mean past this point as the damage bonuses increase the falchion starts outpacing the greatswords but here we are already at the halfway point through the level spectrum.
At first I thought the math is wrong, because it doesn't take into account that not every attack out of the 20 will be a hit so there should be fewer regular hits, but there are also fewer crits because you have to confirm. The only other reason i can think of is that the math is off, because every crit threat that doesn't confirm goes into the regular hits category, but if my logic is correct, that would just mean better average damage for the greatsword.
I will post again once I've done some math including a hypothetical 50% hit chance (as in the target basically has AC = the barbarian's attack bonus +11)
Back. So I calculated with a chance to miss:
So if the chance of an attack happening is 50%, it is 10/20. With a crit range (greatsword) of 17-20, we have 4 out of these threatening a crit, but since only 50% of the threats will confirm, the chance of a regular hit is 8/20, and the chance of a crit is 2/20.
With a falchion this would be 6 out of the 10 threatening, so 3 crits in 10 hits. So 7/20 for regular hits and 3/20
Greatsword:
Non crit: 2d6 (Av 7) + 19 = 26
chance happening 8/20
crit: 2x(2d6 (Av 7) + 19)= 52
chance happening 2/20
average damage per round: ((8x26)+(2x52))/20 = (208 + 104)/20 = 15.6
Falchion:
Non crit: 2d4 (Av 5) + 19 = 24
chance happening 7/20
crit: 2x(2d4 (Av 5) + 19) = 48
chance happening 3/20
average damage per round: ((7x24)+(3x48))/20 = (168 + 144) = 15.6
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and it turns out even with a chance to miss the average damage is still identical at this point. Now with additional damage from increasing strength and more power attack the falchion will start getting better on average, but the difference only slowly advances, here is the same math with another +2 strength (from let's say a belt of strength +2, the bonus to the weapon damage increases by 2 because the modifier is even now and the weapon is two-handed)
Greatsword:
Non crit: 2d6 (Av 7) + 21 = 28
chance happening 8/20
crit: 2x(2d6 (Av 7) + 21)= 56
chance happening 2/20
average damage per round: ((8x28)+(2x56))/20 = (224 + 112)/20 = 16.8
Falchion:
Non crit: 2d4 (Av 5) + 21 = 26
chance happening 7/20
crit: 2x(2d4 (Av 5) + 21) = 52
chance happening 3/20
average damage per round: ((7x26)+(3x52))/20 = (182 + 156) = 16.9
So yeah, the difference is much much smaller than I expected. And considering that there are also foes immune to crits, I think I saw a problem in a place where there was none. So disregard my opening idea.
I originally ignored the crit confirm because I was tired and couldn't come up with a concrete number anyway.
One more example. Flaming for extra dice. This is more to compare with your proposed rule, because you suggested multiplying the dice.
With the stats I used:
current rules:
(All weapons in this example are +1 flaming)
Greatsword:
Non crit: 2d6 (Av 7) + 13 +1d6 (Av 3.5) = 23.5
crit: 2x(2d6 (Av 7) + 13) +1d6 (Av3.5) = 43.5
chance happening 2/20
average damage in long term: ((18x23.5)+(2x43.5))/20=25.5
Falchion:
Non crit: 2d4 (Av 5) + 13 +1d6 (Av3.5) = 21.5
crit: 2x(2d4 (Av 5) + 13) +1d6 (Av3.5) = 39.5
chance happening 3/20
average damage in long term: ((17x21.5)+(3x39.5))/20=22.225
new rule:
Greatsword:
Non crit: 2d6 (Av 7) + 13 +1d6 (Av3.5) = 23.5
crit: 2x(2d6 (Av 7) +1d6 (Av3.5)) + 13 = 34
chance happening 2/20
average damage in long term: ((18x23.5)+(2x34))/20= 24.55
Falchion:
Non crit: 2d4 (Av 5) + 13 +1d6 (Av3.5) = 21.5
crit: 2x(2d4 (Av 5) +1d6 (Av 3.5)) + 13 = 30
chance happening 3/20
average damage in long term: ((17x21.5)+(3x30))/20=22.775
Summary of findings: crits don't actually affect damage too much, and Falchions are only better at higher levels by a tiny amount. Is there anything else we need to try?