After first raid Nualia knows she's discovered. Which means she would rush her work to free Malf, and make an escape plan, if things go wrong. After second raid, she would be surprised, that it was only the party again, who attacked Thisletop. Expecting a third raid, I suggest that she makes an ambush to catch PCs. If they come alone again, of course. If not, she runs away.
And don't worry about wiping the group. It logical, that after two attempts the odds aren't in their favor. They don't have the suprise element, enemy knows some info about them and their tactics, and is prepared. The only realistic non-TPK option, as I see, is to ambush them, but with idea to take alive, not dead.
If they manage to run away again, and return for fourth time - Nualia will certainly want them dead once and for all.
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Before deciding what to do in game, I'd suggest some out of game assessment first.
How are your players responding to this setback? Are they taking it in stride? Are they frustrated? Are the players who had pc's killed creating new ones? Are they committed to returning and finishing the job?
Next, I would suggest some diagnosis of what went wrong. Did they suffer bad luck (a sequence of poor saving throws for example?) Is the party unbalanced - no fighters or no healing being examples of particularly challenging gaps? Are they using poor tactics - fighters aren't high in AC and up front, no archers or poor spell selection (Floating Disk is really cool, I'm memorizing that! - Umm, sleep or burning hands would be so much better) etc.
A party of 4 pc's of 3rd level should not have any more trouble with what appears to be left in Thistletop - that's the default assumption the AP is written for. If there will be fewer pc's then you might have some trouble (hence the question about players creating new characters.)
As for how Nualia reacts you'll need to tailor it based on some answers above but here are some suggestions:
She hacks off the rope bridge to make it much harder for future assaults. Once Mal is free, they can climb down or maybe she has delusions about how Mal can solve that problem magically.
Pending how much time between the 2nd and 3rd assualt (an overnight would be enough) she sends someone (Bruthazmus?) to the Mosswood goblins for more guards. They send 6 goblin warriors to watch from the towers.
She's too obsessed with Mal to give up now, especially since her defenses worked - she doesn't give a crap about the goblins. Dying is the purpose of guards. She sets Orik and Bruthazmus to watch from one of the towers during the day and sets two of the Yeth Hounds to do it at night (the hounds don't like light.) If Bruthazmus is dead or he and Orik are rotating, here's a chance for Orik to surrender or barter his freedom - I help you get into the fort, you let me leave. Orik can see which way the wind blows - the loss of two pc's is painful but technically the defenders have had much higher casualties than the attackers.
I'd have her collapse the stairs to the second level, have her clear out the crab and use that as an escape route.
With the collapsed stairs she has all the time to fiddle with Mal and free him (if you want that to happen) otherwise it hinders the PCs at getting to him; maybe the PCs leave Thistletop with the impression she has died down there (and you can use her later as a recurring villain.
Ruyan.
Her inability to free Malf could be a good excuse to try and capture the PCS. She's currently favoured by Lamashtu, a couple of ritual sacrifices that are a bit more 'filling' than goblins might be just what she needs for the power to break the spell.
I'd also have a talk with the players about their abilities and tactics. Remind them that it is their responsibility to play their characters and you have enough things to keep track of without reminding them of what they can and can't do. Tell them that adventures are not written assuming they'll forget half their actions each round. (gentler than that of course :)). If you have new players maybe a few post-battle analysis' of the next couple of fights would be helpful to help teach them target priority for example.
But those Yeth Hounds are brutal, the first 2 my party dealt with (just)they had to go on a hunt for 3/5 of the party afterwards
B. might be affected by the hound's baying too.
Good point, Bellona!
Same goes for Lyrie, Tsuto, gobbos and such, too!
Ruyan.
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If your bard has put a skill point per level into one of the required performance skills for countersong he should have a perform rank of close to 10. The yeth hound's bay DC is only 12. The bard's snoring should be able to overcome that. I say you start by slapping the bard player and making him read all of his first level abilities.
Would waxen earplugs (the artificial ones...) work? As the baying is sound-based (obvious) and they know about it, they could come prepared. Apply it to the martial characters and let them focus on the hounds while the rest keeps Nualia and such occupied. Once the hounds are dead, they can unplug and go for the others.
Ruyan.
If I may, I'd like to share my experience here and maybe ask for a little help, since the concept is similar from what Zenthane X experienced ?
Here it is : My PCs are in a lot of trouble : it’s their second attempt at Thistletop : they made it to the bridge the first time, but did not cross it, and they let Gogmurt flee and warn the others behind the walls. First mistake. The goblins organized themselves and prepared for their return, but I was kind enough to let the goblins take care of it among themselves and not go underground to warn the longshanks and gather their help.
So, after a rest, they returned 2 days later in the evening and cleared half the ground-level of thisletop, then took a « break » and went to the 1st level-donjon, where they spoke to Lyrie, and let her alone with the bard while they ventured a bit (encountering 2 yeth hounds and seeing from afar the Tentamor, but not killing them). The bard ended up stabbing Lyrie after a betrayal proposal AND he escaped when she offered too much resistance for his taste. While they don't know this, Lyrie immediately went down to inform Nualia of their presence.
Then, they regrouped and all went back to ground-level to resume their goblins killing, not minding at all they left an enemy alive below. I must say the bard wants to leave because he finds this place too dangerous, but the others want to stay. We ended the session with Ripnugget being knocked out but still alive, and they seem to want to awaken him and interrogate him, obviously oblivious of all the danger below.
How do hey not see some urgency as to not stay there while being that baddly hurt ? (The bard is at 0 HP, the cleric used all of her healing spells and channel energies, and the fighter is also below 10 HP).
Now, if I want to be logical, the baddies below had a LOT of time to organize themselves after what Lyrie told Nualia when she escaped from the bard, while the PCs were chatting up for a long time about what they would do before attacking the remaining goblins, losing precious several minutes.
The way I see it : Nualia would have summoned everyone that could help her get rid of them (all 3 yeth hounds, Orik, Bruthazmus, maybe even Lyrie and the four goblin wives, even if they are not the fighting kind). I can’t see any other options. I don't want to have Nualia just calmly waiting the PCs to come down and kill her minions as if she didn't know they were here.
I'd like to find a way to let them live, but I can't see how… Nualia is not stupid like a goblin, she will want to protect her works and end this threat with all her might. Even if she offers them to surrender, she will likely sacrifice them to Lamasthu to increase her powers, so not better than dying if combat.
Any ideas except the cavalry going to their rescue ? Am I too stern or have my players really pushed it too far this time ?
Thanks !
Nualia has no idea of the capacities of the group or the condition they are in. She does know she has a defensible position where she is. Going above risks all her work. So she won't go after the party at this point. Instead, she'll hole up behind the trap, activate it, and wait the PCs out. She will also continue to try and find a way into Mal's prison. Mind you, she doesn't know how to use the coin-door. She might try to kill off the Shadows in hopes there might be another way into the prison from that direction.
She doesn't care about the goblins, outside of using them to wipe out Sandpoint. She wants to free Mal. In her mind, once Mal is free, she has everything she needs for success - and she is probably correct. She just doesn't know how difficult it would be for her to free him (probably the only way to free him is to break down one of the walls to give him a way out that isn't the door).
Tangent's right - Nualia doesn't know what you know about the condition of the party. If she did, she'd do just as you say. The key here isn't to do the absolutely most optimum strategy for Nualia but rather a plausible action that keeps the campaign going. So I would suggest having Nualia consolidate her position below - reinforce doors, etc. And after a period of time (give your players another chance to retreat) she sends a scouting party up to find out what's going on - maybe Bruthazmus and Orik. That's dangerous enough as it is. Or have the hounds get close enough to Bay. A couple of failed saving throws may make enough of them run for all of them to catch a hint.
Yes, it makes sense... I know Nualia doesn't know of their condition, but I was thinking she would be proactive and hunt them to not be interfered with, but as you said, she doesn't know whom she would face, for all she could know, it could be a 15th level party and wouldn't risk her life. Her minions are there for that kind of job.
I like the Bruthazmus and Orik scouting thing ! They will pose a threat together, and I'll let the party a chance to escape also.
Thanks to both of you !
...and even better, Because of Orik's backstory, I'll have him betray Bruthzamus mid-fight and rally with the PCs !