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It seems that there are a lot of countries that don't really get along, and a lot of countries that separated themselves from other countries. But it seems to me that the peace in Golarion is reasonably stable. Where would one go to find a great barbarian horde sweeping the plain threatening civilization as we know it? Where are there massive armies campaigning across foreign territories for glory of god(s), king, and country (and the domination of the Oxford comma)? I took a peek at the wiki, and under Conflicts, the most recent was the Goblinblood war, which was years ago, and was evil goblinoids against the PC races. Don't humans fight humans en masse? Is imperialism truly dead on Golarion?
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Molthune and Nirmathas are at an on-and-off war with one another. Molthune is funding bandits in Isger to run a proxy war there. Andoran is pretty much open to taking the slaving ships of any country. Rahadoum's officially sanctioned and enforced atheism probably counts as a gigantic middle finger for every other nation on Golarion. The Worldwound and Mendev have been in active war for a century. Lastwall and the Hold of Belkzen have been at war even longer than that. Geb and Nex still hate each other while Alkenstar of the Manawastes really wishes they had different neighbours. The Gorilla king of the Mwangi Expanse wants to murder and enslave many people.
Nirmathas and Molthune have been fighting a sort of war for quite a while now. While not exactly a massive clash of armies (Not Nirmathas's more guerilla style anyway), and in relative stalemate, there's still fighting going on. The River Kingdoms, while smaller, have nations appear and disappear on a regular basis (The Kingmaker setting used this as a sort of dropping off point/excuse). Andoran and Cheliax don't exactly fight openly (Cheliax is involved in several ongoing fights), but periodically raid each other and deny having done so. Well, maybe not officially in the case of Andoran, but adventurers are notoriously hard to control, and if they're a bit patriotic and wanting to strike back at the big bad Diabolist nation, then what's a government really going to do about it?
Cheliax is actively conflicted with the Shackles, assisting againt the Worldwound, and generally taking political possession of Varisia (I believe Korvosa, and Magnimar were both Chelaxian holdings last I checked). Irrisen is in a more or less constant border war with most of its neighbors. And the Worldwound is most definitely pushing on all sides. Belkzen has been taking territory from (and I'm trying to remember names from memory here, so I might be off, but I believe it is) Lastwall.
Sorry for not having my books on hand for this, but political wars and civilization on civilization/Imperialist wars are there. I'm guessing they just aren't as obvious as one might expect, but in a place where actions potentially have more than just a global reprecussion, perhaps mere nations on one (or two or three) continents just don't get the attention of other threats? Or maybe they are just so constant that people stop thinking of them as wars and start thinking of them as 'just the way things have always been'.
Also, published adventures tend to avoid these long lasting or potentially border reassigning conflicts. Myself, I am curious as to when they are going o put out a new world guide, or perhaps a supplement showing the state of Golarion post APs. Over the years we've had a new nation form on the River Kingdom's border, a new leader of the Shackles, the closing of the worldwound, and a change in leadership in Irrisen (Assuming generalized success, of course). Oh, and the flooding of a major city in Varisia (almost forgot about that one). We are about to see the birth of a new god in the current path. This doesn't necessarily mean things have to change anywhere, but it would be nice if every few years they put out a booklet detailing something along the lines of 'adapting Golarion to "current" events' or something. Terrible title, but handy to at least pass out to some of my newer players who weren't part of the group when we ran the paths the first time.
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You're definitely right in that in a given area of this size (Europe+++) there should generally be many smaller wars going on at any given time. I think the necessity of making a book describing "nations" (a pretty modern notion - read "The Myth of Nations: The Medieval Origins of Europe" for more on this) that needs to not be out of date in 2 months is partially at fault.
The understanding that many medieval nations were loosely affiliated often-warring nobles isn't widespread. "What do you mean, that town described in Towns of Golarion has been burned down?" I think people also have trouble understanding a more ancient concept of war that's not modern "total war" - that Cheliax could just send in some troops and grab half a county somewhere without it becoming a "we must take over THEIR ENTIRE COUNTRY" kind of thing or not escalating till the lich-generals are unleashed upon the earth.
Also, D&D-world wants to facilitate travel instead of the more xenophobic reality, and if you can't go from Andoren County #1 to Andoren County #2 because there's a land battle on, then the Adventure is Disrupted.
To fix it - just add war. You shouldn't be able to rove across Varisia or anywhere without someone sending a raiding party/cavalry extortion troop/whatnot to their neighbors.
I think the general point is that everything is stable-ish for now. It's a lot like Europe in 1913. They are a ton of tensions and several nations hungering for war with each other but no one wants to make the first move just yet. It needs a spark to ignite the powder keg.
As GM, you can add the spark wherever you want. In fact, that can be a great opening to a campaign. The first or second adventure of the PCs inadvertently sets of a war that the campaign can focus on.
As for Imperialism, not many colonies are being funded. The last big one got separated from its parents by the Eye of Abendego. So colonialism can't be used an outlet for Imperialism. This means that nations have to invade the homelands of other nations which is always a risky proposition. Plus several powers are relatively balanced in martial power.
Taldor is slowly suffocating with no real allies and Qadira hungering for its blood. Qadira doesn't have approval or support for an invasion from its master Katapesh. Galt is wracked with internal strife. Cheliax is biding its time and can only march at the whims of its Infernal masters. Absalom is invincible in defensive wars but doesn't have manpower to maintain an invasion. Andoran doesn't have enough allies to focus on Cheliax and Isger. Molthune is in a guerrilla war with Nirmanthas who has no allies. Druma is fine where it is. Razmir has its own problems. Varisia is too divided to conquer anyone else. The Hordes of Barbarians are in the Lands of the Linnorm Kings and they're far too busy with Irrisen. Rahadoum is in a precarious position due to its enforced Atheism. Orison is focused on rebuilding to its former glory.
So really anyone that can wage a war would face people too equal in power to make such a prospect enticing. The uneasy peace benefits too many. But again anything big enough could set something off. This can be a smaller war like Molthune vs. Nirmanthas creating a similiar situation to Bleeding Kansas (basically a miniature American Civil War before the actual American Civil War), proof that a nation - most likely Cheliax - is amassing army, or a key assassination like with WWI.
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I've thought about a campaign around an Andoren invasion of Galt to try to take care of the political instability on their northern border, but that would require both Taldor and Cheliax to be nice enough to not attack Andoran while they're concentrating on military action to the north and that's just not going to happen.
EDIT: Of course, Cheliax and Taldor could find themselves otherwise occupied by, say, demonic invasions and/or crusaders from abroad.
Lots of good answers, and thanks to all who posted or will post. I noticed this lack of violent conflict when I was trying to write up a character history. I couldn't find quite the war that suited my idea just the way I wanted.
EDIT: Of course, Cheliax and Taldor could find themselves otherwise occupied by, say, demonic invasions and/or crusaders from abroad.
Yeah I have been thinking about something like this. Hypothetically, if the Worldwound closes, you are going to have a very large number of paladins, low templars, clerics, etc. returning home to various nations.
I could see that sort of situation precipitating a World War Golarion, with paladins agitating Cheliax, Cheliax sponsoring crack downs, which pulls Andoran in, some other nation takes advantage of Andoran's distraction, and before you know it all the major nations along the inner sea are pulled into a massive war.
Golarion suffers from a problem that many campaign worlds suffer from, which is that there are many nations that are natural enemies of one another, but borders never seem to shift.
I think the main reason this happens in many published worlds is simply that if borders change then maps have to be re-done, and this is a big publishing commitment. Likewise the shifting of borders renders details in nation-based splatbooks out of date, and they don't want to have to keep printing new editions.
It does make the history of such regions rather stilted, though.
Wars in fantasy gaming can be big world changers, so a lot of the time you'll see things simmering to a boil and then left for individual groups to explore on their own. (Or in the case of Paizo and Golarion, to explore in Adventure Paths, such as Kingmaker and now in Hell's Rebels.) I see a lot of POTENTIAL for war, such as:
Molthune/Nirmathas
Taldor/Absalom
Taldor/Qadira
Geb/Nex
Cheliax/Andoran, Cheliax/Shackles (or Cheliax/anybody really)
Irrisen/Linnorm Kings
Basically, the campaign setting books are at best a snapshot of the status quo but with a roadmap of potential developments you can make to break that status quo. I don't get the feeling the borders are exactly stable or anything, but a lot of the war stuff might make for AP fodder or as bigtime campaign events for a homebrew/Do-It-Yourself campaign.
Basically, on-going war events tend to define a majority of the plots hooks of the land they're occurring in and thus defining what the land is like (such as the Worldwound/Mendev conflict that is more or less eternally going on, or the eternal civil war of Galt.) If the potential events are hinted at or implied rather than the setting books saying "okay here's how this war is and what's happening/happened in it."
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Golarion suffers from a problem that many campaign worlds suffer from, which is that there are many nations that are natural enemies of one another, but borders never seem to shift.
I think the main reason this happens in many published worlds is simply that if borders change then maps have to be re-done, and this is a big publishing commitment. Likewise the shifting of borders renders details in nation-based splatbooks out of date, and they don't want to have to keep printing new editions.
It does make the history of such regions rather stilted, though.
I would like to see some older maps from before the Andoren and Galtan Revolutions, the re-emergence of Qadira, the Worldwound, even the conquest of Irrisen by the Baba Yaga.
With that said, the border shifts of Golarion (like most campaign settings) are strangely small and long-term compared to those in the real world (where nations, especially during the Hundred Years' War period, could rise, flourish, and fall within the span of only a few years). But as you said, it has that in common with Toril, Greyhawk and Krynn (Eberron is, no offense to Keith Baker, a weird exception because it's more campaign setting than functional world by its design and nature).