Best Guess: How many quarters will D&D Next beat Pathfinder on the ICv2 list (if any)?


5th Edition (And Beyond)

851 to 900 of 1,171 << first < prev | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | next > last >>
Paizo Employee Managing Developer

2 people marked this as a favorite.

I removed a number of posts that were combative and posts that replied to them. Please do not attack fellow forum members. You are free to have a discussion, but when people get antagonistic, others reply in kind. This more often than not deviates from the topic and generally makes the entire discussion unpleasant not only for the people involved, but for those reading it as well.


Thanks Adam!

I'll give my All I Really Need to Know I Learned in Kindergarten summary.

5e is to TTRPGs as (MTG + PKMN + YGO) is to CCGs.

Marketing. It's all about the marketing and the deciders at WotC have left no stone unturned when marketing their products. It seems they'll grasp at every product tie-in, every FLGS promotion, social media outlet, offers for interviews, CON presence, misc sponsorship, you-name-it! Nothing too big or too small (though some things are seemingly too much hassle).

As such I expect, and am in fact virtually certain, 5e will top the ICv2 list until they stop making 5e products*.

*:
Which is an interesting question all in itself. At some point 5e will come to EoL but that could still be years away at this point. As long as they're seeing double-digit growth year-over-year, like they have been so far, they'll be riding the 5e pony till it don't go no more.


And things like this:

ROLLING FOR INITIATIVE -- THANK YOU!
Column by Scott Thorne

ICv2 wrote:
Finally, there is WotC, who just did an amazing job helping stores going from offering special promotional cards to drive box sales (see "WotC Provides Special Cards, Prints for Game Store Customers") to giving stores free boxes of Mystery Boosters (see "WotC Announces Game Store Relief") to moving release dates and allowing sales of pre-release kits by stores (see "Wizards of the Coast Adds Coronavirus Accommodations for 'Ikoria: Lair of the Behemoths' Prereleases") to freezing WPN metrics for stores at February levels. Far above and beyond what any store could expect. Thank you!

For a business, everything is marketing. Unless it's a non-profit or a loss leader* for some mega business interest.

* Not saying why one might want a losing business but I hear it's a thing done on purpose, though the purpose may be obscure(d).


To the OP:
24 quarters and counting!

ICv2 5e compatible products @3rd place.

Starfinder hanging in there at 4th and Cyberpunk must have released something last quarter to capture the 5th spot.


1 person marked this as a favorite.

Lumping in a whole bunch of different publishers as one “system” makes it even less meaningful, imo. It seems more about framing a narrative than providing genuine data.

Shadow Lodge

Player: Wait it’s not objective?

GM: *raises handgun* Never has been.


It used to be about different systems/publishers though. By including this category we miss out on one more piece of (subjective) data, just to make a point.


It's a good point though. Third-party tie-ins for one product = 3rd place. The last, and only, time something like that happened was in 3.x days.

Still it would've been better had they given us the #6 product.

And one other point about "subjective" measures. If the measures are genuine metrics, no matter how limited, and there are multiple other genuine metrics* pointing to the same conclusion, one is justified in concluding the ranking to be rather more objective than subjective.

* And there are several more as it happens.


Pathfinder Rulebook Subscriber
Quark Blast wrote:
It's a good point though The last, and only, time something like that happened was in 3.x days.

What instance are you speaking of specifically?


Quark Blast wrote:
And one other point about "subjective" measures. If the measures are genuine metrics, no matter how limited, and there are multiple other genuine metrics* pointing to the same conclusion, one is justified in concluding the ranking to be rather more objective than subjective.

I realise you’re not interested in debate, but fwiw this is wrong.

We may have more reason to believe the subjective reports, but they don’t cease being subjective just because there are a lot of them.


dirtypool wrote:
Quark Blast wrote:
It's a good point though The last, and only, time something like that happened was in 3.x days.
What instance are you speaking of specifically?

Key phrase being "something like that".

In the time of D&D 3.x there were certainly enough 3pp to collect them together and say they are #2 on the ICv2 list (had there been a list in those days - hence the phrase "something like that"), and in point of fact Pathfinder itself would have occupied a spot in the top 5 all by itself no doubt.

@Steve - the various sources are real metrics, not feelings. Alas they are not full disclosure of proprietary sales either but something in between.

Just one example: Amazon sales rank is right there on the product page and having heard authors giddy over making the top 100 on that platform puts the relative success of 5e PHB in proper perspective using just that one metric.

Consensus opinion of FLGS owners paints an identical picture.

It would be difficult to interpret all these 'subjective' measures in a way that puts any other TTRPG product at #1. And by difficult I mean impossible without being a fly on the wall looking over the books at the various companies of concern.


Pathfinder Rulebook Subscriber
Quark Blast wrote:


In the time of D&D 3.x there were certainly enough 3pp to collect them together and say they are #2 on the ICv2 list (had there been a list in those days - hence the phrase "something like that"), and in point of fact Pathfinder itself would have occupied a spot in the top 5 all by itself no doubt.

Yes that's all great historical information about the volume of third party content, but what you actually said was:

Quark Blast wrote:
The last, and only, time something like that happened was in 3.x days.

That statement contains none of the qualifiers you added in your reply.

So, adhering only to the content of your previous post: were you saying that there was an instance in the 3.5 era where 3rd Party product was condensed into a single ICv2 entry? If so: in which year and quarter did this take place?

OR were you using the language of someone speaking with authority as you stated your conjecture about the market penetration of d20 OGL content?

Quark Blast wrote:
Just one example: Amazon sales rank is right there on the product page and having heard authors giddy over making the top 100 on that platform puts the relative success of 5e PHB in proper perspective using just that one metric.

An authors excitement over their work selling well enough to be on Amazon's ranking system is not evidentiary of that ranking have universal applicability. That's using apple butter to prove the existence of apple pie. Consistent and transparent sales figures are the apples. How this still relates to the inclusion of all 5e 3PP content is this: when you bushel all the red apples together regardless of type they may outnumber the green apples, but when you separate them back out into their constituent types you may find the landscape changes.

Dark Archive

1 person marked this as a favorite.

To be honest there wasent much data to 'corrupt' to begin with it only really told you who the top 5 companies/products were in the particular area/points of sale they coverd and dosent account for online sales from things like the Paizo website or laces like Amazon. It also never gave you any real numbers (for instance whats the diffrence in numbers between 1st and 2nd, 2nd and 3rd etc)

In fact this actually provides us with more data than usual since it A, shows that amoungst Brick and Mortar shops (Which I believe is what this covers) 5e is doing so well that it's 3pp as a catagory is able to rank higher than most other companies and B, 5e even if you cut out 3pp it's offical product still outsells everything else in this area.


Kevin Mack wrote:

To be honest there wasent much data to 'corrupt' to begin with it only really told you who the top 5 companies/products were in the particular area/points of sale they coverd and dosent account for online sales from things like the Paizo website or laces like Amazon. It also never gave you any real numbers (for instance whats the diffrence in numbers between 1st and 2nd, 2nd and 3rd etc)

In fact this actually provides us with more data than usual since it A, shows that amoungst Brick and Mortar shops (Which I believe is what this covers) 5e is doing so well that it's 3pp as a catagory is able to rank higher than most other companies and B, 5e even if you cut out 3pp it's offical product still outsells everything else in this area.

There's no doubt it's interesting and relevant. But it could have been presented better.

Im also skeptical of the idea it hasnt happened before - the fact they've presented it this way gives the impression that they've always been looking and now things have "tipped". In fact, this survey result is a qualitatively different type from previous surveys with the same name and presentation.

By the way, ICv2 dont have access to direct sale figures but their estimate is intended to capture the entire market (including online sales, Amazon sales, paizo subscriptions and so on).


Pathfinder Rulebook Subscriber
Kevin Mack wrote:
In fact this actually provides us with more data than usual since it A, shows that amoungst Brick and Mortar shops (Which I believe is what this covers) 5e is doing so well that it's 3pp as a catagory is able to rank higher than most other companies

It doesn’t necessarily show that either, it shows that perhaps that was true during the Spring Quarter of 2020 where the majority of Brick and Mortar game stores were closed or reduced to limited operations. This could just be a snapshot of a unique situation where third party content sold well because of the moment we are in.

“Kevin Mack” wrote:
and B, 5e even if you cut out 3pp it's offical product still outsells everything else in this area.

We don’t know that the Third Party content was counted toward D&D sales before because there is no data transparency. So the idea that this tells us D&D is still #1 is you separate 3PP out is just conjecture and we already knew that D&D was #1.


Kevin Mack wrote:

To be honest there wasent much data to 'corrupt' to begin with it only really told you who the top 5 companies/products were in the particular area/points of sale they coverd and dosent account for online sales from things like the Paizo website or laces like Amazon. It also never gave you any real numbers (for instance whats the diffrence in numbers between 1st and 2nd, 2nd and 3rd etc)

In fact this actually provides us with more data than usual since it A, shows that amoungst Brick and Mortar shops (Which I believe is what this covers) 5e is doing so well that it's 3pp as a catagory is able to rank higher than most other companies and B, 5e even if you cut out 3pp it's offical product still outsells everything else in this area.

Given the way they gather data I think it would be more than a little difficult to parse the 3pp into their individual publishers and/or have the rankings be statistically significant.

In fact the reporting of only the "top 5" might just be a practical artifact of the limitations of their methodology. Such that for most quarters the difference between rank 6 and 10 are insignificant.

When I used to read comics, the owner at the FLGS I got my subscriptions through once told me his gross income was:
30% CCG
20% Comics/Graphic Novels
20% Warhammer/related
25% TTRPGs (mostly D&D based on stock)
05% Other

Well over half his store retail area was devoted to comics and "other". I always assumed that was because there was no ROI to stock more of the other categories.

851 to 900 of 1,171 << first < prev | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | next > last >>
Community / Forums / Gamer Life / Gaming / D&D / 5th Edition (And Beyond) / Best Guess: How many quarters will D&D Next beat Pathfinder on the ICv2 list (if any)? All Messageboards

Want to post a reply? Sign in.