Not entirely sure what happened, but I removed a number of posts and replies to posts that started heading off topic.
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The discussion in this article here lays out some thoughts that may be relevant to this thread/OP. He opens with the following statement in support of his thesis that there are " Six 'game changers' in the games industry":
ST wrote: Although we have thousands of games available and dozens more releasing every month, I would argue that there have been six game changers in the games industry, four of which still dominate their category.
ICv2 has an article that relates back to up-thread discussion.
PAIZO LAUNCHING DIRECT SALES TO RETAILERS
With Rack Program at GAMA Expo
What Paizo is doing here would help fill some of the "gap" I perceive to be made by the lack of a starter set/box for PF2. Though it looks like this was driven more by distributor standard practices hurting Paizo's relationship with players than a proactive marketing strategy. Still it's a smart move in that it encourages local/regional differences in Paizo product consumption without mediation by distributor bias.
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Quark Blast wrote: ICv2 has an article that relates back to up-thread discussion.
PAIZO LAUNCHING DIRECT SALES TO RETAILERS
With Rack Program at GAMA Expo
Huh, cool. I know I've seen several threads along the lines of "My FLGS says they can't get Paizo product X," and Paizo people have responded that as far as they know, there's plenty of them in distribution. I wonder if this will fix that problem.
Joana wrote: Quark Blast wrote: ICv2 has an article that relates back to up-thread discussion.
PAIZO LAUNCHING DIRECT SALES TO RETAILERS
With Rack Program at GAMA Expo
Huh, cool. I know I've seen several threads along the lines of "My FLGS says they can't get Paizo product X," and Paizo people have responded that as far as they know, there's plenty of them in distribution. I wonder if this will fix that problem. I hope so. It's not an Intro Box Set but it does showcase their three main product lines, with a snazzy display, at a reasonable level of investment for FLGS owners.
It also allows said owners to market what sells in their trade area by giving them full flexibility to meet the odd* request that local distributors can't/won't support.
* And it is kinda odd that with all things Internet + the Paizo Store, people can't get what they need. But apparently this somewhat unmet need exists.
Pathfinder Adventure Path Subscriber
Fall stats are up!
1 Dungeons & Dragons (WotC)
2 Pathfinder (Paizo)
3 Shadowrun 6E (Catalyst Game Labs)
4 Star Wars (FFG)
5 Alien (Free League)
Well done for Alien, which premiered in December and managed to knock some mainstays such as V:tM off the chart.
Thanks Gorbacz!
Does anyone perchance know if/when Starfinder will be back on the list?
Gorbacz wrote: Well done for Alien, which premiered in December and managed to knock some mainstays such as V:tM off the chart. I'm not in-the-loop at all when it comes to the broader RPG community, but this one caught me by surprise.
Bearing that ignorance in mind - my thought was alarm at Starfinder's commercial health. It seemed to me that Alien has a certain brand-name advantage, but nonetheless must be something of a niche product(?)
It would be bad news for Starfinder's release rate if it can't muster up the support of a niche game (it doesn't have to match Pathfinder's audience, but it does need to be up there in the top five, I would have thought, to justify the current staff levels).
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Alien RPG is literally the first official Alien RPG in like, 30 years, so between that and Fra Ligan's chops coming out of Tales of the Loop, I can imagine it selling bonkers crazy.
Quark Blast wrote: Thanks Gorbacz!
Does anyone perchance know if/when Starfinder will be back on the list?
FFG's Star Wars is the regular from the Top Five that might disappear - it rather depends what's going to happen to the RPG division, as it might continue as it is but with a different logo. It's had a spot in the list consistently for years, along with D&D and PF. That only leaves two spaces for other games, and there's usually some new editions of big name games coming out in any particular 'quarter'. I don't think Starfinder's sales now that it's out of the 'New Shiny' phase are going to beat any of the big three (D&D, PF, and SW which are already ahead) and I don't see it beating something like The One Ring 2e or other big and previously popular games in the period when they're released. So it's chances depend mostly on something happening to Star Wars, leaving just D&D and PF as regulars, and taking over SW spot as the popular science fantasy game in the top five.
An interesting development on the Star Wars RPG front
...
https://www.enworld.org/threads/ffg-roleplaying-games-arent-going-away-afte r-all.670882/
Marc Radle wrote: An interesting development on the Star Wars RPG front
...
https://www.enworld.org/threads/ffg-roleplaying-games-arent-going-away-afte r-all.670882/
Linked
Interesting indeed. All the U.S. original design team layoffs stand. Now the development goes to a Spanish company that doesn't even have an English website...
Planpanther wrote: Linked
Interesting indeed. All the U.S. original design team layoffs stand. Now the development goes to a Spanish company that doesn't even have an English website...
Yeah the comments section is a definite read. Not sure what Asmodee was doing there but maybe some of the laid off designers can get contracted at Edge Entertainment?
Quark Blast wrote: Planpanther wrote: Linked
Interesting indeed. All the U.S. original design team layoffs stand. Now the development goes to a Spanish company that doesn't even have an English website...
Yeah the comments section is a definite read. Not sure what Asmodee was doing there but maybe some of the laid off designers can get contracted at Edge Entertainment? It would be great if that were the case. Perhaps they could work remotely here in the twin cities Asmodee/FFG office as Edge employees. Though, I have a feeling moving to Spain, or Europe in general, is not something the designers would be up to if that's the only option...
There have been too many blogs/articles to post links to (and I don't want to look them up again but they're there, just ask Google) but, pulling a number out of my Hat 'O Bias, it's looking like 25% to 50% of FLGSs go bust this year. Even with ones that might look like they can recover come May (or June!), there will be the inevitable "second wave" of Coronavirus this fall/winter. Who wants to restart their store with the promise of a second crash looming?
I know the stimulus plans are supposed to help but low margins and high risk don't make for a boom in FLGS starts/restarts.
What will this do to the question behind the OP? I'm note sure other than online sales will increase as a proportion of total sales.
There's also going to be less money around for recreational activities in general. That's going to eliminate a number of stores too.
I don't see it hurting WotC too much, as their books are available in a huge range of stores apart from hobby shops. It won't matter to the small publishers who sell PDFs or PoD via DriveThru - in fact they might see pretty good business while a lockdown is in place, as it's the place to get products. It's the companies in-between that are big enough to have printed material in a FLGS, but not at the level where their products get into mainstream stores, that might hurt. Direct sales and PDFs are going to be their saviour, if they survive. Perhaps Kickstarter too, for the ones that use that, since it's another source of income. Some are not going to make it.
@Bluenose - Kickstarter may be the only thing left by this time next year... OK, I mostly kid but any company that isn't sitting on 6 to 12 months of operating cash is likely to be out of operation by this time next year. RIFs of 50% at the surviving companies seems likely to me (unless of course half or more of their effective staff are contractors). Or maybe online gaming and e-gaming products are far more profitable than I imagine. Still, people will have to be employed in order to have excess $ for gaming stuff.
It looks like Kickstarter may be even more robust than I thought. Frostahven has nearly $6M and counting with 29 funding days to go. Holy ####knuckles that's a load of cash promises.
OTOH, it looks like distribution is starting to seize up. WORLD ACCORDING TO GRIEPP: DISTRIBUTOR CASH FLOW 101In summary:
ICv2 wrote: It’s a zero-sum game at this point, as there’s only so much cash, there won’t be a lot more for a while, and how that cash gets spent may make life-and-death differences for some of the companies involved. This has become very serious, very fast. Yeesh! I once thought I'd like to open a FLGS one of these days... though I had already been disabused of that notion the current situation reinforces that in spades.
Not Good News for FLGSs. Or is that better put: More not good news?
Dang, I thought I was cynical. Here's some grimdark news:
WORLD ACCORDING TO GRIEPP: GEEK WINTER IS COMING
IcV2 wrote: So {for 2020} we’ve got reduced consumer demand, a shuttered and/or hamstrung retail base, disrupted supply chains, no conventions, and a paralyzed Hollywood with all that entails. Geek winter is definitely coming. What’s next? Tune in tomorrow for how we get to spring.
Today's article WORLD ACCORDING TO GRIEPP: ADAPTING TO THE CORONAVIRUS YEAR
I don't see how the author can square this:
ICv2 wrote: I didn’t write {Geek Winter is Coming} to spread doom and gloom, but to prepare those of us in the business for the coming period of want, and to point to places that can lead us to opportunity. Geek winter is coming, but spring will follow. .
With this:
ICv2 wrote: My assumption is that the disruptions in daily life that we’ve seen for the past five or six weeks are the beginning of an extended period of such disruptions that will likely continue into next year. That means the recovery in the business of geek culture is going to be long, and choppy, not a sudden re-opening of the economy followed by a surge of pent-up demand. I say choppy because even if social distancing is relaxed at times and places, there are likely to be other times and places where it has to be tightened in response to surge in new cases. Given the massive uncertainty how can one say "spring recovery" when it sounds more like decimation and rebuilding. Other bloggers are figuring there will be something in the neighborhood of 50% loss of FLGSs this year. Obviously, at some point, many of those will be replaced but I'm thinking Kickstarter and e-tail business will largely occupy the space vacated by the missing 50% and not give it back and I don't see how something like an FLGS can operate in the e-tail environment against the power of the BIG Boiz.
Numbers aren't out yet but if WotC keeps doing things like this they'll stay well ahead in perpetuity:
'STRANGER THINGS' MEETS 'D&D'
In Comic Mini-Series
Question: Is the bard using a special feat to convert his lute into a bludgeoning weapon?
:D
Pathfinder Rulebook Subscriber
Quark Blast wrote: Numbers aren't out yet but if WotC keeps doing things like this they'll stay well ahead in perpetuity:
'STRANGER THINGS' MEETS 'D&D'
In Comic Mini-Series
I’m not sure how that will have any effect on D&D’s ICV2 numbers. The cross marketing of Stranger Things and D&D has created a knock on effect to game sales already, a comic will certainly drive both Stranger Things fans and D&D fans to spend their money on IDW’s product, but I’m not seeing how it would double back to further drive RPG sales.
dirtypool wrote: Quark Blast wrote: Numbers aren't out yet but if WotC keeps doing things like this they'll stay well ahead in perpetuity:
'STRANGER THINGS' MEETS 'D&D'
In Comic Mini-Series
I’m not sure how that will have any effect on D&D’s ICV2 numbers. The cross marketing of Stranger Things and D&D has created a knock on effect to game sales already, a comic will certainly drive both Stranger Things fans and D&D fans to spend their money on IDW’s product, but I’m not seeing how it would double back to further drive RPG sales. Well, the kids in Stranger Things ( nominally ) play D&D. No doubt the comic mini-series will have them doing so as well. So it's basically free advertising for the TTRPG.
How would this situation not double back to drive further RPG sales?
Especially given that this already exists:
Stranger Things D&D Roleplaying Game Starter Set
Fantasy Roleplaying Tabletop Game
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Quark Blast wrote: dirtypool wrote: Quark Blast wrote: Numbers aren't out yet but if WotC keeps doing things like this they'll stay well ahead in perpetuity:
'STRANGER THINGS' MEETS 'D&D'
In Comic Mini-Series
I’m not sure how that will have any effect on D&D’s ICV2 numbers. The cross marketing of Stranger Things and D&D has created a knock on effect to game sales already, a comic will certainly drive both Stranger Things fans and D&D fans to spend their money on IDW’s product, but I’m not seeing how it would double back to further drive RPG sales. Well, the kids in Stranger Things ( nominally ) play D&D. No doubt the comic mini-series will have them doing so as well. So it's basically free advertising for the TTRPG.
How would this situation not double back to drive further RPG sales?
Especially given that this already exists:
Stranger Things D&D Roleplaying Game Starter Set
Fantasy Roleplaying Tabletop Game First, licensed comics are notoriously weak sellers.
Second, the audience that would purchase a licensed comic book about the Stranger Things kids being sucked into a real D&D adventure isn’t a new untapped audience so much as it’s a Venn diagram including both the people who already have purchased the ST D&D box set and those who never would.
The comics audience is the smallest of the three and the existing audience already heavily overlaps with the other two. At best it converts a small handful of new comic readers, but it certainly doesn’t drive enough dollars back to D&D to singlehandedly contribute to Wizards maintaining its market dominance.
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I recommend just ignoring him.
Yeah, I don't see how having a Stranger Things red box affects WotC's profits.
The only people that buy the D&D beginner boxes are desperate relatives looking for a rushed gift right before a birthday party.
captain yesterday wrote: Yeah, I don't see how having a Stranger Things red box affects WotC's profits.
The only people that buy the D&D beginner boxes are desperate relatives looking for a rushed gift right before a birthday party.
I bought it because I love both D&D and Stranger Things. Also, you get more dice, two minis, and an adventure.
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