
thejeff |
thejeff wrote:I'm not sure the World Cup is more of a threat than some other things already on the table
FAR more from the point of view of average russian.
You see,economic threats and/or sanctions are silly for the people who survived nineties in russia.
IT WILL NOT BE WORSE.
But cancellation of World Cup in population's favorite sport is huge morale penalty.In the election year,no less!
But then,annexation of Crimea is morale boost(Crimea and especially Sevastopol have huge symbolic value),and this is,sadly,not a Civilization game with fixed numbers for these,so we have to wait and see.
Yes, but is it the people that matter to Putin or the elites?
Hurting their ability to make money hurts them. The World Cup doesn't.And frankly it's not like elections in Russia really mean that much. It's easy enough to spin these things as Western aggression and even get a political boost out of it. Nothing like an outside enemy.
OTOH, hurting his political allies ability to travel and do business abroad, cutting their banking system off and freezing access to overseas assets: That he'll hear about.

Vlad Koroboff |

protests against this action in Russia
Yep.There was.One.In Moscow.Seen it with my own eyes.
About...well....300? people.Of which about a hundred was arrested.In 10+mil Moscow...300-500 people is kinda...irrelevant.Also NO-ONE!!! had the brains to actually request autorization for that.Which most likely would have prevented those arrests.But where's publicity in that?
Oh,well.
but is it the people that matter to Putin or the elites?
Nope.
Public support is.Combination of right opponent and some kicks here and there and the man can actually lose 2018.But allies is more fun!You see,substantial part of Russia's economy is based offshore for tax evasion and some stuff i know nothing about.
What i DO know is that deoffshorization of economics is pretty high on priority list.
As is return of capitals home.
So any freezes of assets will trigger run of all that remains abroad home,which is exactly what the man wants.
I start to think that he watched Gargoyles.

Vlad Koroboff |

reading about the terms of the referendum... nice stacked deck there.
"Either i win or you lose"
Of course,it doesn't matter in the slightest.What matters is the MAD dollarz russians will bring to Crimea.
Vote buying still works!Not direct buying,of course.That would be silly.
Just the fact that pensions in russia is something like 3x of Ukraine brings almost all 50+aged people on the side of joining RF.

BigNorseWolf |

Hama wrote:Funny, considering that the states pretty much produce 90% of oil they need. If not more.Had to correct this.
Production: 11.11 million barrels per day
Consumption: 18.49 million barrels per dayThe US produces 60% of it's oil consumption.
How about when you include canada, our 51st state?

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Irontruth wrote:How about when you include canada, our 51st state?Hama wrote:Funny, considering that the states pretty much produce 90% of oil they need. If not more.Had to correct this.
Production: 11.11 million barrels per day
Consumption: 18.49 million barrels per dayThe US produces 60% of it's oil consumption.
Now dont be silly...the gulf of Mexico is the fifty first state.

thejeff |
yellowdingo wrote:This will escalate into Russia providing nukes to Arab states...mark my words.To accomplish what?
You can easily track nuke back to its manufacturer.Especially AFTER it's been detonated.
Near as I can tell, the main effect will be to deter attack by outside powers. And of course to raise the chance of nuclear conflict being triggered.
Somehow I doubt Russia is anymore interested in either than we are.
There are very strong incentives to be in the nuclear club. And equally strong ones to keep other nations out of it.

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yellowdingo wrote:This will escalate into Russia providing nukes to Arab states...mark my words.To accomplish what?
You can easily track nuke back to its manufacturer.Especially AFTER it's been detonated.
Because peeing on each other is the fasion of the year. Usa breaks up USSR and isolates russia. Russia gives nukes to Arab states.

Vlad Koroboff |

Because peeing on each other is the fasion of the year. Usa breaks up USSR and isolates russia. Russia gives nukes to Arab states.
Selling modern SAM and ASM batteries accomplishes same thing with substantially better profits.Also,without any kind of backlash.
Nukes,when you have the infrastructure,are cheap.Why give arabs the nukes when you can sell them nuclear power plants?:)

thejeff |
yellowdingo wrote:
Because peeing on each other is the fasion of the year. Usa breaks up USSR and isolates russia. Russia gives nukes to Arab states.Selling modern SAM and ASM batteries accomplishes same thing with substantially better profits.Also,without any kind of backlash.
Nukes,when you have the infrastructure,are cheap.
Why give arabs the nukes when you can sell them nuclear power plants?:)
Because you're arguing with yellowdingo.
I'm just surprised it's not a trillion nukes.

BigNorseWolf |

thejeff wrote:
I'm just surprised it's not a trillion nukes.After Ukrainian officials talking about nuclear rearmament(in a span of months,no less) that's not so bad.
Which they have every right to do, since russia violated the agreement where they gave up their nukes in the first place.

Vlad Koroboff |

Which they have every right to do, since russia violated the agreement where they gave up their nukes in the first place.
That's debatable.
True problem is,they have no nuclear program,no infrastructure,no delivery systems and no money.And everybody knows that!
Saddam had,like,15? years to obtain nukes,and he didn't succeed.

BigNorseWolf |

BigNorseWolf wrote:That's debatable.
Which they have every right to do, since russia violated the agreement where they gave up their nukes in the first place.
No. No it is not.
You can argue against it. You can make the sounds and write the words "no" but there is no genuine debate that Russia grossly violated the treaty.

HarbinNick |

Fact is after Kosovo, Iraq, and Afghanistan, the Russians do have to whole "don't you dare poke fingers!" after all invading a russian speaking border port, is certainly more in the Russian domestic sphere of interest than say invading Iraq was...
-Not that it makes it better, but realpolitik and all...

Vlad Koroboff |

invading
You literally cannot compare Iraq and Crimea.Not a single shot was fired in anger.And the only ship sunk was russian(because scuttling one decommissioned cruiser to obtain like 10 ship as loot is efficient).
Georgia campaign,yes.There was at least some military action,and something was accomplished military.Also tons of loot!
thejeff |
HarbinNick wrote:invadingYou literally cannot compare Iraq and Crimea.Not a single shot was fired in anger.And the only ship sunk was russian(because scuttling one decommissioned cruiser to obtain like 10 ship as loot is efficient).
Georgia campaign,yes.There was at least some military action,and something was accomplished military.Also tons of loot!
Agreed. You literally cannot compare Iraq and Crimea.
In Iraq a large coalition of nations deposed a ruthless dictator and attempted to put in place a representative democracy. (That may not have been the real motivation and it didn't work out well in practice, admittedly.)
And the US never attempted to annex Iraq.

Vlad Koroboff |

In Iraq a large coalition of nations deposed a ruthless dictator
Who was then executed for causing like 150 deaths.
attempted to put in place a representative democracy
Causing direct deaths upwards from 10k,and indirect second only to iran-iraq wars of eighties.
And the US never attempted to annex Iraq.
Iraq never formally requested to join US.

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USA has ukrainian billionaire arrested in Austria because he is a supporter of Ukraine siding with Russia. link

Grey Lensman |
Vlad Koroboff wrote:thejeff wrote:
And the US never attempted to annex Iraq.
Iraq never formally requested to join US.
A "formal request" to join a country while that country's troops are patrolling your streets is suspect at best.
Especially when you are financing the separatist movement from early on...

Grey Lensman |
USA has ukrainian billionaire arrested in Austria because he is a supporter of Ukraine siding with Russia. link
Wow, we must be good. Investigating some guy since 2006 for the things he didn't pull off until 2014?
I would suggest that if you are going to draw wild conclusions based on an article you link, read it first to ensure it doesn't blow your conclusion out of the water.

Vlad Koroboff |

A "formal request" to join a country while that country's troops are patrolling your streets is suspect at best.
Where's the resistance?
Because,you see,in Chechnya there was resistance,and it was not even independent.Let's say referendum fails.What then?They will gun down parliament?
The ONLY thing on the russia's side here is that whole situation looks like will of Crimea's people.
Otherwise,that's an invasion,and NO-ONE back home will support invasion of Ukraine.

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thejeff wrote:A "formal request" to join a country while that country's troops are patrolling your streets is suspect at best.
Where's the resistance?
Because,you see,in Chechnya there was resistance,and it was not even independent.
Let's say referendum fails.What then?They will gun down parliament?
The ONLY thing on the russia's side here is that whole situation looks like will of Crimea's people.
Otherwise,that's an invasion,and NO-ONE back home will support invasion of Ukraine.
Pro russian government have a two question referendum.

Comrade Anklebiter |

Ukraine and the west: hot air and hypocrisy
Speaking of Mad Russian dollarz:
Exposed: CIA, NATO and NGOs created the Ukrainian crisis sez Kucinich.
And, finally, the new issue of Izvestiya came, and I'm all like, wow, I guess it wasn't a no-brainer:
Ukraine Coup: Spearheaded by Fascists, Backed by U.S./EU Imperialists: Crimea Is Russian
I'm not exactly sure about their position; I don't see how Marxists can pin their line on whether or not Sexy Putin respects the national rights of the Crimean Tatars (which I wouldn't count on), but I have to admit that I didn't know the Crimeans held a referendum in 1991 to rejoin Russia and it was ignored by the new Ukrainian government. A quick google search can't find two articles that say that same thing, but this one from the The Journal of Turkish Weekly claims that "Upon the decision to hold referendum to vote on the independence of Crimea, Ukrainian authorities abolished the Crimean constitution and presidency in March 1995. This was the first harsh reaction by Ukraine over pro-Russians in Crimea after the dissolution of the Soviet Republic."
Well, I'm still sticking with Russia Out! for now, but, as an American communist, my first duty is opposition to the bloody American imperialists whether they are wimps or not* and, I have to say, that post about how you literally can't compare Iraq with Crimea because in the former there was a coalition in accordance with international law to bring about representative democracy makes me want to puke.
---
*"Turns out I'm really good at killing people" when they are 16-year-old boys or attending tribal weddings. Reminds me of that scene in Slaughterhouse-Five where the German soldier mocks Billy Pilgrim and his fellow POWs who are so good at fighting their "nxxxxx wars."

thejeff |
I have to say, that post about how you literally can't compare Iraq with Crimea because in the former there was a coalition in accordance with international law to bring about representative democracy makes me want to puke.
For the record, my main point in that was that the situation was really not comparable at all, not just in the Russia is pure and innocent kind of way it was presented.
In other words, a whitewash of the US's plans in Iraq just like some are whitewashing Russia's role in Crimea.The fact that the Americans are bloody imperialists doesn't say anything at all about what the Russians are.

thejeff |
Comrade Anklebiter wrote:representative democracyWasn't Soviet Union a representative democracy?
I am starting to think that democracy is only democracy when NATO decides so.
Of course. Just like North Korea is.
They had elections and everything.
If that's a serious question, you've just blown any credibility you had.