The Ukraine thingy


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Vlad Koroboff wrote:
thejeff wrote:

I'm not sure the World Cup is more of a threat than some other things already on the table

FAR more from the point of view of average russian.

You see,economic threats and/or sanctions are silly for the people who survived nineties in russia.
IT WILL NOT BE WORSE.
But cancellation of World Cup in population's favorite sport is huge morale penalty.In the election year,no less!
But then,annexation of Crimea is morale boost(Crimea and especially Sevastopol have huge symbolic value),and this is,sadly,not a Civilization game with fixed numbers for these,so we have to wait and see.

Yes, but is it the people that matter to Putin or the elites?

Hurting their ability to make money hurts them. The World Cup doesn't.
And frankly it's not like elections in Russia really mean that much. It's easy enough to spin these things as Western aggression and even get a political boost out of it. Nothing like an outside enemy.

OTOH, hurting his political allies ability to travel and do business abroad, cutting their banking system off and freezing access to overseas assets: That he'll hear about.


A highly regarded expert wrote:
protests against this action in Russia

Yep.There was.One.In Moscow.Seen it with my own eyes.

About...well....300? people.Of which about a hundred was arrested.
In 10+mil Moscow...300-500 people is kinda...irrelevant.Also NO-ONE!!! had the brains to actually request autorization for that.Which most likely would have prevented those arrests.But where's publicity in that?
Oh,well.
thejeff wrote:


but is it the people that matter to Putin or the elites?

Nope.

Public support is.Combination of right opponent and some kicks here and there and the man can actually lose 2018.
But allies is more fun!You see,substantial part of Russia's economy is based offshore for tax evasion and some stuff i know nothing about.
What i DO know is that deoffshorization of economics is pretty high on priority list.
As is return of capitals home.
So any freezes of assets will trigger run of all that remains abroad home,which is exactly what the man wants.
I start to think that he watched Gargoyles.

Acquisitives

Pathfinder Adventure Path, Lost Omens, Starfinder Roleplaying Game Subscriber

reading about the terms of the referendum... nice stacked deck there.


Yakman wrote:
reading about the terms of the referendum... nice stacked deck there.

"Either i win or you lose"

Of course,it doesn't matter in the slightest.
What matters is the MAD dollarz russians will bring to Crimea.
Vote buying still works!Not direct buying,of course.That would be silly.
Just the fact that pensions in russia is something like 3x of Ukraine brings almost all 50+aged people on the side of joining RF.

Acquisitives

Pathfinder Adventure Path, Lost Omens, Starfinder Roleplaying Game Subscriber

Mad Dollarz?

Yes, Russia's long history of bringing peace and prosperity to its newly conquered periphery is truly well-documented.

Oh wait....


Yakman wrote:
conquered

What?


Vlad Koroboff wrote:


this works FAR better

Looks like Russia's made a counter-move.


Oh no! don't take away america's SOCCER! Or throw me in the briar patch...

Sovereign Court

BigNorseWolf wrote:

Oh no! don't take away america's SOCCER! Or throw me in the briar patch...

It's football.


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Hama wrote:
Funny, considering that the states pretty much produce 90% of oil they need. If not more.

Had to correct this.

Production: 11.11 million barrels per day
Consumption: 18.49 million barrels per day

The US produces 60% of it's oil consumption.


Irontruth wrote:
Hama wrote:
Funny, considering that the states pretty much produce 90% of oil they need. If not more.

Had to correct this.

Production: 11.11 million barrels per day
Consumption: 18.49 million barrels per day

The US produces 60% of it's oil consumption.

How about when you include canada, our 51st state?


Hama wrote:
BigNorseWolf wrote:

Oh no! don't take away america's SOCCER! Or throw me in the briar patch...

It's football.

If it was football we might care.

The Exchange

This will escalate into Russia providing nukes to Arab states...mark my words.

The Exchange

BigNorseWolf wrote:
Irontruth wrote:
Hama wrote:
Funny, considering that the states pretty much produce 90% of oil they need. If not more.

Had to correct this.

Production: 11.11 million barrels per day
Consumption: 18.49 million barrels per day

The US produces 60% of it's oil consumption.

How about when you include canada, our 51st state?

Now dont be silly...the gulf of Mexico is the fifty first state.

Sovereign Court

BigNorseWolf wrote:
Hama wrote:
BigNorseWolf wrote:

Oh no! don't take away america's SOCCER! Or throw me in the briar patch...

It's football.
If it was football we might care.

Well, you, England and Australia are the only ones calling handegg football. Rest of the world calls football football.


yellowdingo wrote:
This will escalate into Russia providing nukes to Arab states...mark my words.

To accomplish what?

You can easily track nuke back to its manufacturer.Especially AFTER it's been detonated.


As if that'd matter. Once they're detonated, we're all going to die.


Icyshadow wrote:
As if that'd matter. Once they're detonated, we're all going to die.

Nope.First it will be tracked back to russians and THEN we are all going to die.Exept maybe Moscow,because A-135.

Why would russians want that?


Vlad Koroboff wrote:
yellowdingo wrote:
This will escalate into Russia providing nukes to Arab states...mark my words.

To accomplish what?

You can easily track nuke back to its manufacturer.Especially AFTER it's been detonated.

Near as I can tell, the main effect will be to deter attack by outside powers. And of course to raise the chance of nuclear conflict being triggered.

Somehow I doubt Russia is anymore interested in either than we are.

There are very strong incentives to be in the nuclear club. And equally strong ones to keep other nations out of it.

The Exchange

Vlad Koroboff wrote:
yellowdingo wrote:
This will escalate into Russia providing nukes to Arab states...mark my words.

To accomplish what?

You can easily track nuke back to its manufacturer.Especially AFTER it's been detonated.

Because peeing on each other is the fasion of the year. Usa breaks up USSR and isolates russia. Russia gives nukes to Arab states.


yellowdingo wrote:


Because peeing on each other is the fasion of the year. Usa breaks up USSR and isolates russia. Russia gives nukes to Arab states.

Selling modern SAM and ASM batteries accomplishes same thing with substantially better profits.Also,without any kind of backlash.

Nukes,when you have the infrastructure,are cheap.
Why give arabs the nukes when you can sell them nuclear power plants?:)


Vlad Koroboff wrote:
yellowdingo wrote:


Because peeing on each other is the fasion of the year. Usa breaks up USSR and isolates russia. Russia gives nukes to Arab states.

Selling modern SAM and ASM batteries accomplishes same thing with substantially better profits.Also,without any kind of backlash.

Nukes,when you have the infrastructure,are cheap.
Why give arabs the nukes when you can sell them nuclear power plants?:)

Because you're arguing with yellowdingo.

I'm just surprised it's not a trillion nukes.


thejeff wrote:


I'm just surprised it's not a trillion nukes.

After Ukrainian officials talking about nuclear rearmament(in a span of months,no less) that's not so bad.


Vlad Koroboff wrote:
thejeff wrote:


I'm just surprised it's not a trillion nukes.

After Ukrainian officials talking about nuclear rearmament(in a span of months,no less) that's not so bad.

Which they have every right to do, since russia violated the agreement where they gave up their nukes in the first place.


BigNorseWolf wrote:


Which they have every right to do, since russia violated the agreement where they gave up their nukes in the first place.

That's debatable.

True problem is,they have no nuclear program,no infrastructure,no delivery systems and no money.
And everybody knows that!
Saddam had,like,15? years to obtain nukes,and he didn't succeed.


Vlad Koroboff wrote:
BigNorseWolf wrote:


Which they have every right to do, since russia violated the agreement where they gave up their nukes in the first place.
That's debatable.

No. No it is not.

You can argue against it. You can make the sounds and write the words "no" but there is no genuine debate that Russia grossly violated the treaty.


BigNorseWolf wrote:

the treaty.

There is no treaty.It was never ratified.

Legally null and void.
And yes,getting rid of nuclear weapons before ratification was actually really stupid.


Politics is what you can get away with....


HarbinNick wrote:

Politics is what you can get away with....

Yep.Even in that treaty there was self-defence clause which you can spin.

And without it to bind....anyone,russians are trying to spin Kosovo precedent.
Which is kinda ironic.But,at least bombing Ukraine to stone age was not required.


Fact is after Kosovo, Iraq, and Afghanistan, the Russians do have to whole "don't you dare poke fingers!" after all invading a russian speaking border port, is certainly more in the Russian domestic sphere of interest than say invading Iraq was...
-Not that it makes it better, but realpolitik and all...


HarbinNick wrote:
invading

You literally cannot compare Iraq and Crimea.Not a single shot was fired in anger.And the only ship sunk was russian(because scuttling one decommissioned cruiser to obtain like 10 ship as loot is efficient).

Georgia campaign,yes.There was at least some military action,and something was accomplished military.Also tons of loot!


Well, at least they had wine...


HarbinNick wrote:
Well, at least they had wine...

They had a few NATO trucks with C&C equipment.That's faaar more important.


Not for me, I spent enough time in Mother Russia to enjoy my Georgian Wines, though I liked the Moldovan ones too.


Vlad Koroboff wrote:
HarbinNick wrote:
invading

You literally cannot compare Iraq and Crimea.Not a single shot was fired in anger.And the only ship sunk was russian(because scuttling one decommissioned cruiser to obtain like 10 ship as loot is efficient).

Georgia campaign,yes.There was at least some military action,and something was accomplished military.Also tons of loot!

Agreed. You literally cannot compare Iraq and Crimea.

In Iraq a large coalition of nations deposed a ruthless dictator and attempted to put in place a representative democracy. (That may not have been the real motivation and it didn't work out well in practice, admittedly.)

And the US never attempted to annex Iraq.


thejeff wrote:


In Iraq a large coalition of nations deposed a ruthless dictator

Who was then executed for causing like 150 deaths.

thejeff wrote:

attempted to put in place a representative democracy

Causing direct deaths upwards from 10k,and indirect second only to iran-iraq wars of eighties.

thejeff wrote:


And the US never attempted to annex Iraq.

Iraq never formally requested to join US.

Acquisitives

Pathfinder Adventure Path, Lost Omens, Starfinder Roleplaying Game Subscriber
yellowdingo wrote:
This will escalate into Russia providing nukes to Arab states...mark my words.

nope.


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Vlad Koroboff wrote:
thejeff wrote:


And the US never attempted to annex Iraq.

Iraq never formally requested to join US.

A "formal request" to join a country while that country's troops are patrolling your streets is suspect at best.

The Exchange

USA has ukrainian billionaire arrested in Austria because he is a supporter of Ukraine siding with Russia. link


thejeff wrote:
Vlad Koroboff wrote:
thejeff wrote:


And the US never attempted to annex Iraq.

Iraq never formally requested to join US.

A "formal request" to join a country while that country's troops are patrolling your streets is suspect at best.

Especially when you are financing the separatist movement from early on...


yellowdingo wrote:
USA has ukrainian billionaire arrested in Austria because he is a supporter of Ukraine siding with Russia. link

Wow, we must be good. Investigating some guy since 2006 for the things he didn't pull off until 2014?

I would suggest that if you are going to draw wild conclusions based on an article you link, read it first to ensure it doesn't blow your conclusion out of the water.


China, Russia, and other unpopular countries have repeatedly compared American action abroad as violation of international law. Not my opinion, but theirs. This is not to say I support their spin, but they are two of the big 5.


thejeff wrote:

A "formal request" to join a country while that country's troops are patrolling your streets is suspect at best.

Where's the resistance?

Because,you see,in Chechnya there was resistance,and it was not even independent.
Let's say referendum fails.What then?They will gun down parliament?
The ONLY thing on the russia's side here is that whole situation looks like will of Crimea's people.
Otherwise,that's an invasion,and NO-ONE back home will support invasion of Ukraine.

The Exchange

Vlad Koroboff wrote:
thejeff wrote:

A "formal request" to join a country while that country's troops are patrolling your streets is suspect at best.

Where's the resistance?

Because,you see,in Chechnya there was resistance,and it was not even independent.
Let's say referendum fails.What then?They will gun down parliament?
The ONLY thing on the russia's side here is that whole situation looks like will of Crimea's people.
Otherwise,that's an invasion,and NO-ONE back home will support invasion of Ukraine.

Pro russian government have a two question referendum.


yellowdingo wrote:

Pro russian government have a two question referendum.

I know.Second is"return to 1992 constitution and remain as part of Ukraine".So no annexation.


Ukraine and the west: hot air and hypocrisy

Speaking of Mad Russian dollarz:

Exposed: CIA, NATO and NGOs created the Ukrainian crisis sez Kucinich.

And, finally, the new issue of Izvestiya came, and I'm all like, wow, I guess it wasn't a no-brainer:

Ukraine Coup: Spearheaded by Fascists, Backed by U.S./EU Imperialists: Crimea Is Russian

I'm not exactly sure about their position; I don't see how Marxists can pin their line on whether or not Sexy Putin respects the national rights of the Crimean Tatars (which I wouldn't count on), but I have to admit that I didn't know the Crimeans held a referendum in 1991 to rejoin Russia and it was ignored by the new Ukrainian government. A quick google search can't find two articles that say that same thing, but this one from the The Journal of Turkish Weekly claims that "Upon the decision to hold referendum to vote on the independence of Crimea, Ukrainian authorities abolished the Crimean constitution and presidency in March 1995. This was the first harsh reaction by Ukraine over pro-Russians in Crimea after the dissolution of the Soviet Republic."

Well, I'm still sticking with Russia Out! for now, but, as an American communist, my first duty is opposition to the bloody American imperialists whether they are wimps or not* and, I have to say, that post about how you literally can't compare Iraq with Crimea because in the former there was a coalition in accordance with international law to bring about representative democracy makes me want to puke.

---
*"Turns out I'm really good at killing people" when they are 16-year-old boys or attending tribal weddings. Reminds me of that scene in Slaughterhouse-Five where the German soldier mocks Billy Pilgrim and his fellow POWs who are so good at fighting their "nxxxxx wars."


Comrade Anklebiter wrote:
representative democracy

Wasn't Soviet Union a representative democracy?

I am starting to think that democracy is only democracy when NATO decides so.


Comrade Anklebiter wrote:

I have to say, that post about how you literally can't compare Iraq with Crimea because in the former there was a coalition in accordance with international law to bring about representative democracy makes me want to puke.

For the record, my main point in that was that the situation was really not comparable at all, not just in the Russia is pure and innocent kind of way it was presented.

In other words, a whitewash of the US's plans in Iraq just like some are whitewashing Russia's role in Crimea.

The fact that the Americans are bloody imperialists doesn't say anything at all about what the Russians are.


Vlad Koroboff wrote:
Comrade Anklebiter wrote:
representative democracy

Wasn't Soviet Union a representative democracy?

Not imho, but it wasn't your post that was making me vomit.


Vlad Koroboff wrote:
Comrade Anklebiter wrote:
representative democracy

Wasn't Soviet Union a representative democracy?

I am starting to think that democracy is only democracy when NATO decides so.

Of course. Just like North Korea is.

They had elections and everything.

If that's a serious question, you've just blown any credibility you had.

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