Can someone give me a crash course in calculating DPR? Ultimately I'd like to be able to calculate the difference in expected DPR from opening a Monk Flurry of Blows with a Trip attempt, versus a standard all-attacks Flurry.
Basics are: hd+tchd
h = hit chance
d = average damage
t = crit chance
c = crit multiplier (2x=1, 3x=2, 4x=3)
Repeat for each attack you get in a round, and total.
Can someone give me a crash course in calculating DPR? Ultimately I'd like to be able to calculate the difference in expected DPR from opening a Monk Flurry of Blows with a Trip attempt, versus a standard all-attacks Flurry.
You mean a monk attempting to trip on his first attack, and then making normal(non-trip) attacks?
Basics are: hd+tchd
h = hit chance
d = average damage
t = crit chance
c = crit multiplier (2x=1, 3x=2, 4x=3)Repeat for each attack you get in a round, and total.
Hit chance being related to Attack Bonus and Die roll needed to overcome foe's AC?
For example:
+12 Attack bonus with 1d10+7, 20/x2 crit range/multiplier vs AC 20 I would need to roll 8+. 8+ means that there are 13 possible rolls I could get which would succeed, (13/20)=0.65. Crit range is 20, which means my chance is 1/20 or 0.05.
Therefore:
(.65)(5.5+7)+(.05)(1)(.65)(5.5+7)=8.5
Am I on the right track?
I get 8.53125 but yeah, looks like you've got it.
Can someone give me a crash course in calculating DPR? Ultimately I'd like to be able to calculate the difference in expected DPR from opening a Monk Flurry of Blows with a Trip attempt, versus a standard all-attacks Flurry.You mean a monk attempting to trip on his first attack, and then making normal(non-trip) attacks?
That's the general idea. This character is for PFS, so there is a higher proportion of bipedal enemies without CMDs through the roof.
My thought was open the flurry with a trip, and reap the benefits of an effective +4 to attack for the rest of my flurry attacks, as well as putting the enemy prone for my teammates to abuse as well.
I get 8.53125 but yeah, looks like you've got it.
I rounded for the sake of significant figures.
Thanks for the assistance.
If you want a more complete formula
DPR = (d + NMD)*h + (d*(c-1) + COD)*t*CtConf
d = Base Damage
h = chance to hit
NMD = Non-Multiplying damage, like sneak attack, which does not multiply on a crit
COD = Crit Only Damage, IE damage that only occurs on a crit, like the Killer trait
c = Crit Multiplier
t = chance to Crit
CtConf = Chance to Confrim the crit, some abilities give you a bonus to confirm a crit
Usually, h = CtConf, and COD = NMD = 0, which means the formula reduces down to the formula that Tarantula gave earlier of
DPR = d*h + d*h*c*t = d*h*(1+(c-1)*t)
So to get to your specific problem, you also have to account for the chance that the trip fails.
Lets say I have a monk who can flurry with 2 attacks at +8 that do 1d8 +5 damage each. My normal targets have an AC of 16 and a CMD of 14.
My normal DPR for a single attack is
9.5*0.65*(1+(2-1)*0.05) = 6.5
Two attacks is 13.0
If I successfully trip, my DPR for the single attack is
9.5*0.85*(1+(2-1)0.05) = 8.47.
My chance to trip is 75%
So my average DPR when I attempt to trip it
CtT*TDPR + (1-CtT)*NDPR
CtT = Chance to Trip
TDPR = DPR when trip is successful
NDPR = Normal DPR(IE trip is not successful
That gives me a trip DPR of around 8.0
So in this case, I lose DPR on average, but I have a 75% chance to increase my parties melee DPR by 20%.