Use this: Animal Companions - Horse
That will net you the base statistics of the horses.
Then use the various spells/abilties/etc. that cause the condition. Or, do some Google research on what causes panic in horses. A quick cinematic I can think of is lighting a fire where they are, whipping them for lethal damage, a lightning bolt, or those kinds of things.
If the horses aren't war trained, shouldn't they panic by default during combat?
At the smell of blood yes, but I'm assuming that since they are bandits, they are probably combat trained.
Simply trying to spook the horses into a panic, the rogue could use either Bluff or Intimidate. Since "deceiving someone" takes 1 round to do and demoralizing takes a standard action, I'd rule either case a full-round action. The horses just have to be able to hear the rogue. If the rogue's check is successful, the horses are Panicked. This is assuming they are standard horses. If they are trained warhorses or something, I'd say they would only be shaken instead of panicked.
No, this isn't in the rules, but this is a special scenario requiring DM fiat, and is just my personal recommendation from an experienced fellow DM. Someone else may be able to reference a FAQ or something that would closer resemble an official ruling.
EDIT: Regarding standard horses being panicked by default due to a nearby battle, there may be an "official ruling" somewhere, but the way I'd play it is to roll a d% for each horse at the end of each round (or during the horses' initiative if you're counting them in... but for the sake of ease and sanity, I'd just do this at the end of each round). Default 50% chance that each horse will be panicked and run amok. I'd say default distance is 30 ft. away or so. If the horses are closer than that, there is a higher chance. If they are further than 30 ft. away, they have a lower chance of getting spooked. With this scenario, you will have some horses going nuts while others just stand rearing up in place, scared and confused. Besides possibly playing into the encounter, it's just a good cliche scene to envision, and the dice here are bringing it to life. If a horse does not get panicked (and it's just a standard horse), I'd say that it is still shaken if it is within 30 ft. of the combat. My 2 cents. :)
Good advice Sinatar!
Another great place to ask this, go hit up the Ask Jason Buhlman thread. He'd most likely give a really good and useable answer as well.
By "tight quarters", do you mean they're pinned / tied up? If so when they're panicked, give them a roll to see if they can break out. If there's no way they can break out, then you'll simply have a bunch of spooked, rearing, loud horses on your hands and that's it. But if they can break out, they would definitely be running amok. You can obviously rule otherwise, but in this situation (if they're close to combat AND a rogue is trying to spook them), at least some of them would be panicked and would be doing their best to run away if at all possible.
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Since they're regular horses, you don't have to worry about the horses trampling, because in Pathfinder creatures need to have the ability Trample to do so. Normally a horse COULD try to overrun somebody, but Overrunning is a standard action that targets somebody, which cannot be done if you're panicked. If you're panicked, all you can do is basically run / move away from the source of your panic. So the horses would either be trying to get out of the pen and away from the party, or just backed all the way to the other side of the pen as far as they can go, then cower. Panicked doesn't mean you're trampling everything in sight, it means you're scared and you're trying to get away as fast as possible. If the PCs are trying to panic the horses tactically, it may distract other NPCs nearby (or draw their attention). Otherwise it will just mean a bunch of horses running randomly everywhere. If a PC wants to actually try and make one of the horses do something, it would be a Handle Animal check as a move action.
