Carver Hastings

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Great thought, thanks!


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Artisan Tools give a bonus to crafting checks, but is it just for creating items? For instance, does this bonus apply to Inventor actions like Tamper and Overdrive that use crafting checks?


Pathfinder Adventure Path, Lost Omens, Rulebook Subscriber

Artisan Tools give a bonus to crafting checks, but is it just for creating items? For instance, does this bonus apply to Inventor actions like Tamper and Overdrive that use crafting checks?


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I do generally like the system as designed. The circus is kind of it's own self-contained little character.

The system doesn't provide PC income, but the AP says to give 5g after the first performance. At 1.25g/PC that's 6 days of lvl 1 Trained income from the Earn an Income activity. This seems appropriate. You could give earned income success/failure amounts based on their trick performance for the day. And if they help to promote, give them the same for those promotion days. The performance awards for the circus would be a totally separate pot.


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Dire Ursus wrote:
Did you take into account that performers can help each other, and also all the background roles that a PC could take over?

Yeah, the last scenario I ran with +8 skill checks and +1 circ bonus modeled that generously, as if every single check was helped by assistance and agile tricks. My model circus failed all 100 tries even so.

If you want the players to have a shot (and maybe you don't, idk) you really need to make sure they net that +4 excitement from outside events, or start with 10-11 anticipation.


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Zapp wrote:

Maybe there's a story point to be gained from failure?

Might it be the case to drive home the point their circus is in dire straits (with the competition and whatnot)?

On the other hand, if the story expects success, there's a miscalculation here.

As written I don't think the AP requires either, but it also doesn't warn the gm that a generous hand is needed to make success possible. I checked it because I think many players (like my group) would be angry if we reached the end of that and realized there was no chance.


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Ron Lundeen wrote:

10 is a good starting number to use if you want to ease into the circus with a fairly straightforward introduction to the circus rules (a good thing, right at the beginning). Yes, it's hard to get 15.

I want to emphasize for other GMs, 15 isn't just hard, it's all but impossible for lvl 1 characters to reach with tricks alone. A +2 to +3 net gain from random events is necessary if you think the PCs should have even a small chance to succeed.

But as you mentioned, at higher levels it should tune well, especially since the PC's can choose how much anticipation to start with in the first place.


Pathfinder Adventure Path, Lost Omens, Rulebook Subscriber

The first circus performance starts with 15 anticipation, but i wonder if this was meant to be 10. I don't think the PCs have any chance to generate 15 excitement (could this be intentional?). If you want to give them approx 50/50 chance in this first performance I suggest lowering starting anticipation to 11, or making a net +4 excitement from random events likely.

Here's the math to maximise expected excitement generation:

Use trick DC 15

1st trick attempt, Bonus +7
65% success x +1 exite = 0.65
30% fail x 0 exite = 0
5% crit fail x -1 exite = -0.05
Total: 0.6

2nd attempt, Bonus +2
40% success x +1 exite = 0.4
60% fail or crit fail x +1 excite because you should send in clowns on failed attempts = 0.6
Total: 1.0

3rd attempt is a negative expected value, even with an agile trick, so never attempt.

Result:
Over 7 tricks that's an expected total of only about 11. I skipped over some things, but i think their net effect would make the result worse, such as:
- you can only send clowns 4 times
- crit success raises anticipation, at level 1 this means you get no closer to success
- PCs could be assisting each other for a +1 on 4 trick attempts total. I estimate this balances the negatives somewhat.
- Agile tricks will help, but not enough to make the 3rd attempt a net positive

Notice that you can't even get to 15 if you always skip attempt #3 of your trick (2 attempts x 7 tricks = 14), which we did because it's optimal for expected value. To get 15 you have to accept a lower expected value.

I modeled this in excel trying to account for the stuff i didn't include above, and in no case could I turn up a success:
100 attempts w/non agile tricks yielded an average 9.5 excitement, highest was 14
100 attempts with agile tricks yielded an average 10.1 excitement, highest was 13
100 attempts with +8 bonuses, +1 circumstance every roll, and agile tricks yielded an average 11.0, highest was 14


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CrystalSeas wrote:

See previous discussion of this issue

Why 10+ and not 11+

That thread is about critical success/failure thresholds, which isn't what I'm talking about above.


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Using 10+modifier for opposed skill checks results in a bias in favor of the rolling party. Shouldn't it be 11 + modifier?

Example: a PC hides from a monster. The PC's stealth is +0, and monster's perception is +0. Even-Steven, right? No, the Perception DC is 10+0 = 10, meaning the PC successfully hides on a 10-20 roll (11 permutations, 55%), and is spotted on a 1-9 (9 permutations, 45%).

The same is true with opposed skills like deception and perception. The CRB tells a lying PC to roll Deception vs Perception DC, but if the PC is Sensing Motive they roll Perception vs Deception DC. If all modifiers are +0 again the PC has a 55% chance of success, so long as they are the one rolling. It's like the PC has a secret little boost during these NPC interactions.

If the rule was 11 + mod then equal modifiers would produce even odds. Wouldn't this have been a better way?


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Theodorov wrote:
Cyprion wrote:
I think Theodorov's scenario #1 is how it would work. But To get the flat-footed strike you could add the Create a Diversion action (Deception skill) to the beginning of scenario #2, which would keep you hidden while using stealth. I think this would even prevent you from having to make a stealth role to approach (so long as you are only Sneaking or Stepping) since the Diversion keeps you hidden.

are you meaning the following?

2)
action1: sneak 2 squares behind the creature --> now observed
action2: create a diversion --> now hidden
action3: strike the flat footed creature

I meant to swap your actions 1 and 2, which would make you hidden all the way through the strike, but i suppose the way you have it written would mechanically work the same.


Pathfinder Adventure Path, Lost Omens, Rulebook Subscriber

I think Theodorov's scenario #1 is how it would work. But To get the flat-footed strike you could add the Create a Diversion action (Deception skill) to the beginning of scenario #2, which would keep you hidden while using stealth. I think this would even prevent you from having to make a stealth role to approach (so long as you are only Sneaking or Stepping) since the Diversion keeps you hidden.


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Blave wrote:
Cyprion wrote:
This particular ability Disrupts, so they lose the action at the point of trigger. They'd have to take another Move or Step to trigger another Disrupt Prey, if indeed, Step triggers it.

It only disrupts on a Crit. And if it was indeed a free action, you could keep hitting them if they either keep walking past you or if they use another action to move/step again in case the first one was disrupted.

Either way, this would totally breaks everything PF2 tries to balance when it comes to action economy. It's meant to be a reaction. Nothing else makes sense. And as a reaction, it can't hit someone taking a Step.

Regardless, the crux of my original question is to confirm that Step doesn't protect against free actions with relevant triggers. Sounds like you agree.


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Blave wrote:
That's most likely a mistake and should be a reaction. Otherwise you could keep hitting someone who walks past you.

This particular ability Disrupts, so they lose the action at the point of trigger. They'd have to take another Move or Step to trigger another Disrupt Prey, if indeed, Step triggers it.


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Step "doesn't trigger reactions", but feats like the Ranger's Disrupt Prey are free actions, so they would still trigger on a Step, right?


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OffRoadSP wrote:
A bandolier allows you to retrieve the item as part of the action to use it, so there's that.

I think this is only true for a dedicated toolset. All other items retrieved would require an Interact action.