I've heard people point to the Wyrmling Green Dragon in Menace Under Otari saying, "See? The party level +2 creature is treated as worth 120 XP, so Paizo is admitting that party level +2 solo creatures are severe instead of moderate!" But there's an earlier fight against a party level +2 Cinder Rat that the game treats as 80 XP, so that doesn't make sense.
I took a closer look at the dragon's stat block, which has a listed level of 4. The Breath Weapon dealing 5d6 damage is expected for a level 4 creature, but the DC of 24 is 1 point shy of extreme. That is ridiculously high, and there aren't enough proper low statistics here to offset it.
But that's only if you look at it as a level 4 creature. As a level 5 creature, its Breath DC sits halfway between high and extreme, and it's offset by lower level breath weapon damage among other things.
I'm not here to start a discussion about whether a party level +2 creature counts as a severe-threat solo boss. I'm just posing the question: Could this dragon actually be level 5 (party level +3), in which case the level provided on page 60 of the Beginner Box Game Master's Guide is actually a typo?
So it's meant to be level 4. I suppose the high breath DC could be meant to offset the fact that this dragon is explicitly too dumb to use the Breath Weapon on more than one PC. I wonder about that XP reward, though. I know many would call a PL+2 monster a severe solo boss, but since the author doesn't seem to think so, why is the dragon worth 120 XP?
So it's meant to be level 4. I suppose the high breath DC could be meant to offset the fact that this dragon is explicitly too dumb to use the Breath Weapon on more than one PC. I wonder about that XP reward, though. I know many would call a PL+2 monster a severe solo boss, but since the author doesn't seem to think so, why is the dragon worth 120 XP?You are reading way too much into this. There could be several factors here: it's 120 XP because it's the final boss of the adventure, or because they also don't follow XP budget rules strictly, or they use 'accomplishment' logic for awarding XP (almost the same as my 1st reason), or they actually see that the creature is too strong and award more XP. Or something else.
The room description describes this as the hardest encounter in the adventure, so it may be the latter. One poor save and one high roll on the Breath Weapon means anyone with a max HP of 30 or less could suffer Massive Damage.
It's strong for its level, but most creatures of that type are. However, the absolute difference to the average power of monsters of its level would be higher if it was 5. I don't know of any reasonable criteria for level classification that would put it at 5 rather than 4.
Yeah, I suppose I should put my analysis here.
As a level 4 creature:
Str +4 (moderate/high), Dex +1 (low-1), Con +3 (moderate), Int +1 (low-1), Wis +1 (low-1), Cha +3 (moderate)
Perception +11 (moderate)
Acrobatics +8 (low), Arcana +11 (moderate/high), Athletics +12 (high), Deception +9 (low/moderate), Diplomacy +11 (moderate/high), Intimidation +11 (moderate/high), Nature +9 (low/moderate), Occultism +12 (high), Society +9 (low/moderate), Stealth +10 (moderate)
AC 22 (high+1); Fort +11 (moderate), Ref +11 (moderate), Will +12 (moderate/high)
HP 60 (moderate)
Melee Strike [one-action] jaws +14 (high) (poison), Damage 2d8+4 piercing plus 1d4 poison (high+1)
Melee Strike [one-action] claw +14 (high) (agile), Damage 2d6+4 slashing (moderate-1)
Melee Strike [one-action] tail +12 (moderate) (reach 10 feet), Damage 1d8+4 bludgeoning (low-1)
I'm ignoring the horn because there's no reason to use it; it's not even in Draconic Frenzy.
Breath Weapon 5d6 poison (limited use area) with a DC 24 (extreme-1) basic Reflex save
Actually, maybe I was downplaying the severity of the Tail's moderate attack bonus and low damage. I thought it wouldn't be enough to offset the Breath Weapon DC, but both Draconic Frenzy and Twisting Tail depend on this attack.