I'm trying to get a sense for how many months of game time should pass / how many "charter turns" the players should get by the time they get to part 3.
I didn't find anything in this book that tells me how developed their charter should be when they start the next book. What I don't want is for my players' charter to end up way behind or way ahead of the NPC charters just because I gave them too few or too many charter turns.
Does anybody have any thoughts on this?
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From the Settlement Events
those who came with the PCs; later events assume the charter
has grown significantly and attracted many—possibly dozens
more—additional, unnamed settlers.
One of the later events says that it should happen
once they've claimed 6 hexes, or else played more than a dozen charter turns.
That's about all I could find.
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The book says very little about pacing, but it does give a few clues. Namely, it outlines XP and character advancement.
In order to develop their charter, PCs will need to explore the map. As they explore the map, they'll trigger events, gain XP, and level up. The development of their charter should naturally coincide with their character advancement, since they'll basically need to explore to do both.
The book says that you should start part three after PCs have "explored a good portion of the map" and are second level. They should also reach third level upon completion of part three. With that in mind, I think they'll need to complete at least half of the events and charter areas outlined in the book in order to stay on track.
As far as going too far, there's a blurb on page 24 titled "A Sandbox Experience" that addresses it. Basically, if they complete all the events and gain too much experience, you may need to just adjust for it later on. "Concluding the adventure" also mentions that after completing part three, the PCs will likely have more map to explore. Neither section seems to think that over-advancement is a major concern, so I wouldn't overthink it either.
If your looking for a number, I would guess that it should take 6-12 months to complete this book. But keep in mind that its a sandbox, and depending on your group it could vary quite a bit.