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For a moment we will go with the assumption that you can use this ability during downtime (though, I'm fairly certain you cannot). Unless your static bonus were +1 higher, it would not be an auto-success when faced with DC 30. If you roll a 1 before you roll a 6 (which will happen 50% of the time), then you will have failed by 5 or more, invoking the rule that you quoted: you lose half of the raw materials and must start again. And if you continue to roll 1s before a 6, you continue to destroy half of the remaining raw materials each time. (First you lose 1/2, then 1/4, then 1/8, then 1/16, etc.)
Mathematically, the expected cost would be 4/9 the listed price of the item (44.44%). The least you would pay would be 1/3 the cost of the item (33.33%). The upper bound on how much you would pay if you are quite unlucky and roll 1s repeatedly without rolling a 6 is 2/3 the cost of the item (66.67%).
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Inspiration, because it is not a permanent effect and has an extremely limited number of times per day it can be used, is NOT usable on Day Job checks, any more than you can use Guidance on Day Job checks. The Day Job check is an abstract compilation of potentially dozens of individual crafting checks as you make and then sell items in your down time. If it's not an all-day-long duration modifier, like Crafter's Fortune, you can't modify your Day Job check with it. However, if you just wanted to make a single alchemical item for yourself then I would allow inspiration on that one die roll.
This is all very clearly spelled out on page 21 of the Guide to PFS Organized Play:
Permanent bonuses from equipment, feats, racial bonuses, and traits affect your Day Job check as they would any check for the rolled skill, but temporary bonuses such as those granted by spell effects, other than crafter’s fortune, do not contribute, as the duration over which the Day Job check is made is undefined and represents a longer amount of time than a spell’s duration would permit the bonus to remain. You may take 10 on a Day Job check, but you may not take 20 nor can you aid another.
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Inspiration, because it is not a permanent effect and has an extremely limited number of times per day it can be used, is NOT usable on Day Job checks, any more than you can use Guidance on Day Job checks. The Day Job check is an abstract compilation of potentially dozens of individual crafting checks as you make and then sell items in your down time. If it's not an all-day-long duration modifier, like Crafter's Fortune, you can't modify your Day Job check with it. However, if you just wanted to make a single alchemical item for yourself then I would allow inspiration on that one die roll.
This is all very clearly spelled out on page 21 of the Guide to PFS Organized Play:
Permanent bonuses from equipment, feats, racial bonuses, and traits affect your Day Job check as they would any check for the rolled skill, but temporary bonuses such as those granted by spell effects, other than crafter’s fortune, do not contribute, as the duration over which the Day Job check is made is undefined and represents a longer amount of time than a spell’s duration would permit the bonus to remain. You may take 10 on a Day Job check, but you may not take 20 nor can you aid another.
That is correct in the cases where you must expend a use of Inspiration to get the extra D6. As Martain pointed out, there are ways to make Inspiration free for a set of skills. Once it is free to use, it is no longer a limited resource, and it then becomes a valid question whether or not it can be used on a Day Job roll.
An Investigator can, by default, use Inspiration without expending a use on any Knowledge Skill, Linguistics, or Spellcraft provided the Investigator has at least 1 rank in the skill.
Through Investigator Talents, it's possible to additionally get "free" uses of Inspiration on:
Expanded Inspiration: Diplomacy, Heal, Perception, Profession skills, Sense Motive
Underworld Inspiration: Bluff, Disable Device, Disguise, Intimidate, and Sleight of Hand
Profession skills, Spellcraft, Heal, Intimidate, Bluff, Sleight of Hand, and I think Diplomacy can all be Day Job rolls (EDIT: Provided you have the vanity to allow the appropriate skill, except in the case of Professions). If you're able to use Inspiration for free when using one of those skills, it would seem to be an always on bonus, and my opinion is it should apply.
Unlike Guidance, which has a standard action casting time and a limited duration, once Inspiration is free to use, it can be applied to every roll of the skill as a free action (limited only by the number of free actions the GM allows) even after the D20 has been rolled for the skill.
I don't, however, see a way to get Inspiration uses for free on a Craft Skill (I might be missing it), so I don't think you can apply it to a Craft: Alchemy roll between scenarios for crafting or for a Day Job.
Now, that being said, without something from the PFS campaign, it's going to be a table variation issue based on how the GM interprets the FAQ and the Day Job rules (as a lot of other things are right now), and I wouldn't expect a clarification from the campaign until after the ACG is released, because the Inspiration rules might be completely different when that happens.
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An Investigator can, by default, use Inspiration without expending a use on any Knowledge Skill, Linguistics, or Spellcraft provided the Investigator has at least 1 rank in the skill.
Through Investigator Talents, it's possible to additionally get "free" uses of Inspiration on:
Expanded Inspiration: Diplomacy, Heal, Perception, Profession skills, Sense Motive
Underworld Inspiration: Bluff, Disable Device, Disguise, Intimidate, and Sleight of Hand
Profession...
What's funny is that an Investigator can't use a free inspiration on Craft (alchemy). I mean, he can be freely inspired on his Knowledge Nobility roll by putting 1 rank into it, but he can't be so inspired in his use of Alchemy, no matter what he does. Despite the fact that the Investigator is better at Alchemy than at Knowledge History.
This is why I scoff at the notion of arguing about realism in the game.
Realism? Ina game where you can put on a pair of cheap (1,000 gp) boots, and never take more than 20 points of damage, no matter how far you fall? And still land on your feet, to boot.
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It's worth also pointing out that an Investigator using Craft Alchemy to craft mundane items (EDIT: In PFS) is something that is also open to table variance, since right now only Alchemists are called out as able to craft alchemical items, and Paizo (the developers) have yet to make a determination as to whether the ACG classes count as their alternate classes. It's another area where PFS is unlikely to make a ruling for the campaign until the ACG is released. This issue applies to a lot more than just Investigators and crafting, like Investigators and purchasing poisons, or Warpriests and qualifying for Fighter feats, or Bloodragers and what Bloodline they can have if they intend to go Dragon Disciple.
I'm still of the opinion that you can't spend uses of a finite ability between scenarios, just like you can't spend used of a wand (of Crafter's Fortune, for instance), but I know both those issues are going to be up for table variance.
I have an Investigator, and I'm avoiding these issues because I don't want to run into table variance, so I'm just not crafting or using poisons for now. It's still a fun class to play.