Odds of encountering a current scenario cards during play

[Nathaniel Gousset]

Disclaimer : calculation were a bit rough but that's to keep them simple. As game progress during an AP odds to encounter cards from that AP actually keep getting smaller because people usually kept more recent cards. The situation should improve after AP3, but slowly (5 games by AP), but specific scenario cards would still be diluted.

Quick average:

400 cards in the base set
110 cards in the Heroes deck
110 cards by expansion (of whom at least 30 are henchman/vilain)

6 character deck means 80 basic cards in decks.

Odds to encounter an AP1 card:

total cards AP1+Base - player deck = 400+110+80-80= 510
Odds of meeting an AP1 card = 80/510 = 15.70 %

Odds to encounter an AP2 card:

total cards AP2+AP1+Base - player deck = 400+110+80+80-80= 590
Odds of meeting an AP1 card = 80/590 = 13.50 %

Odds to encounter an AP3 cards (first game:

total cards AP3+AP2+AP1+Base - player deck = 400+110+80+80+80-80= 670
Odds of meeting an AP1 card = 80/670 = 11.94 %

Now, in a 6 players games you Averagely encounter 8*5.5 = 44 cards. In those 44 cards 8 are vilain and henchmane, So the number of expected cards by game session in the AP is :

AP1 : 36*15.70 = 5.65
AP2 : 36*13.5 = 4.86
AP3 : 36*11.94 = 4.3

As you can see that is not a lot of. Of course, you always encounter at least some AP cards each game : the vilain and henchman. And the situation will get better when you start slowly removing basic cards.

But the trouble is the same already encountered in Arkham Horror. Due to the nature of the cards repartition, the currently played scenario isn't the one that affect decisively the game being currently played.

I know the developpers were concentrated on ease to setup and speed to setup. But I think the deck should really be more constructed with more impact of the current AP than totally random distribution.

This is not a pure criticism, this is an analysis, and a plead that for the next adventure path more cards will be setup by scenario than randomised.

[Markon]

Nathaniel Gousset wrote:

This is not a pure criticism, this is an analysis, and a plead that for the next...

How would they do that, without making set up/storage more complicated?

Also, assuming 6 decks all made, initially that would be 90 basic cards, not 80. Not sure if tat typo was carried into your calcualations, I didn't read them all, it's a bit late in the morning for that much math.

[Nathaniel Gousset]

Oups my bad, it was a mistake, having to type 80 for AP deck, I mistakenly use 80 too for character deck.

How to do it ? have allies from AP treated as henchman with their own box. Wont take long to add to location.

Classify monsters by type, have each category on their own type.

I wont care to have a setup minimaly more lengthy or complicated, currently the only thing that really take time during setup is the shuffling of decks.

[Vic Wertz]

Note that I didn't check your math, but I do have a few things to point out. First, in each Adventure Deck, in addition the the villains and henchmen, you'll also see the scenarios, locations, and loot. The pool of randomly seeded cards in each Adventure Deck consists of only the monsters, barriers, and boons—it's generally going to be less than half of each deck. Which is to say that each new deck has a *huge* influence on the flavor of the game, and would have even if you somehow never managed to encounter a single new monster, barrier, or boon.

I think you're also underestimating the impact of Basics and Elites getting removed. Note that as you acquire cards during play, you're going to want to keep some of them for your deck, and if you choose to replace a Basic with them, you will often choose to remove that Basic from the game, so just acquiring cards through normal play will reduce the number of older cards in the box quicker than you might think.

Also, don't forget that card feats also effectively reduce the number of cards in the box.

[Markon]

I think the best way to do this would be to go with H4ppy's suggested idea for reducing the number of henchman cards, this would allow a few more of other sorts of cards in other piles, increasing the chance of seeing them. And yeah, I am looking forward to banishing most of the basic cards. But I've been fairly lucky with getting good cards (other than not getting lightning bolt yet!), so I'm not complaining (much :P )

[h4ppy]

Vic Wertz wrote:

I think you're also underestimating the impact of Basics and Elites getting removed. Note that as you acquire cards during play, you're going to want to keep some of them for your deck, and if you choose to replace a Basic with them, you will often choose to remove that Basic from the game, so just acquiring cards through normal play will reduce the number of older cards in the box quicker than you might think.

I thought we had agreed that cards you don't use from your 'stash' are just "put back into the box" (not "banished", so there's no opportunity to remove acquired basics from the game using this method at the end of a scenario)?

To remove a basic from the AP (I thought) it had to be banished during play?

[Bidmaron]

I don't think Vic is claiming that you can selectively banish at the end, although his statement wasn't that clear. He's just pointing out that the OP's math is WAY OFF and fails to account for removal (which admittedly is a random thing difficult to compute).

I'm sure Vic will chime in, but I think the other thread was clear you can't choose to banish boons at the end of a scenario (that they go back in the box if you choose a more advanced card).

[h4ppy]

Well, with my marvelous sample size of 1 in a six character playthrough we found lots of "2" cards during Skinsaw. (Including, satisfyingly: the bell fell out of the clock tower and Skinsaw Ritual came up during the Cult Exposed)

[Fenris235]

I think what Vic wanted to say is, that you can banish Basic cards after you started AP3 The Hook Mountain Massacre.
To clarify:
The Adventure Path Rise of the Runelords card says:

After you begin The Hook Mountain Massacre, whenever you banish a bane with the Basic trait, remove it from the game; whenever you banish a boon with the Basic trait, you may remove it from the game. After you begin Sins of the Saviors (AP5), do the same for the Elite trait.

As i understand this, the Basic and Elite cards are removed completely, so they are no longer in the Box.

[h4ppy]

Fenris235 wrote:

As i understand this, the Basic and Elite cards are removed completely, so they are no longer in the Box.

Exactly

[TClifford]

I do agree with you to a point and even have mentioned that I would like to see the location decks should have more cards associated with the current adventure set in another thread. Again this thread seems to come down to more criticism and less constructive. If you think there is a problem, then what you propose as a solution?

[Markon]

I'm having trouble getting links to work, so I'm just going to paste the name of the thread here:

So many henchman cards... a suggestion to change this in the next AP

That's my suggestion. i know I referenced it in my post above, but I just did a LARGE post reinforcing why I think reducing the number of henchman cards is a good idea, so I figured I would mention it one more time.

Also, as Vic said, it will get better in a few more paths, when we can clear out basic cards, but the OP's issue could still be addressed by the method put out in that other thread.

[Vic Wertz]

Bidmaron wrote:

I don't think Vic is claiming that you can selectively banish at the end, although his statement wasn't that clear. He's just pointing out that the OP's math is WAY OFF and fails to account for removal (which admittedly is a random thing difficult to compute).

I'm sure Vic will chime in, but I think the other thread was clear you can't choose to banish boons at the end of a scenario (that they go back in the box if you choose a more advanced card).

Yeah—all that!