I have been roleplaying and hanging out with a group of guys for between 25 to 30 years. We roleplay together, we play cards together and we play the odd luck influenced board game.
We have this guy in our group, let's call him Paul, he is a fine role player and a smart guy so he doesn't generally make silly mistakes but he has terrible luck. If he does manage to roll a hit, he rolls rubbish damage. He is rarely if ever a threat for the bad guys.
We have this other guy, let's call him Matt, he is the lucky one. In most combats he can be guaranteed to pull out a couple of criticals. When it gets down to the wire, and the bad guys look like they have the party on the ropes everyone looks to Matt to pull out the crit with the big damage or the hit against the high ac or whatever. He succeeds with regularity. He is frequently a significant threat for the bad guys.
Now I am a sceptic so next time we play ( which will be an all weekend event) I am going to ask Paul to use the dice Matt would use and Matt to use the dice Paul would use. I don't think either cheats (why would Paul ?) but let's rule out bodgy dice.
The thing is it is the same with cards, and with board games (where we all use the same dice - in fact it has got so when we play settlers of cataan one of my set up plans is to put my settlements on the numbers Matt has).
So maybe Matt is just lucky at cards and dice, it doesn't have to be much, we roll a lot of dice. And maybe Paul is just unlucky. I mean this is over 25+ years and it has always been this way.
Do you have similar stories?
Does luck actually exist ?
My brother has a shirt that says "I roll 20s" and I have seen him roll 5 back to back to back to back to back 20s on a d20. If I hadn't seen it with my own eyes I would have said it was a load of malarky. Sure it is something that is not only possible but also probable but it is very unlikely that it would happen very often. He is also the reason that we use point buys over die rolling as several of his characters have crazy stats (18, 18, 17, 16, 14, 14 was one of his characters).
On a separate note, I have often defied the odds and made checks that were something like "You need a 20 to be able to hit" and I've missed some to where I was told "Don't roll a one".
RPG Superstar 2015 Top 32, RPG Superstar 2012 Top 32
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I very much do believe in luck.
From the way I hear people talk about luck, I think I must define it differently than other people do. See, I don't think of luck as some kind of external force that intervenes to alter the outcome of an event that would have otherwise ended differently.
Rather, I think of luck as a description of the desirability or undesirability of what does happen (though only if it's outside the direct control of the observer).
For instance, if I see a string of good die rolls (and believe the person was not cheating) and say "that was lucky" it's merely a statement of fact: "That was a desirable series of events over which you exercised no control."
If I'm understanding people right, then if someone else witnesses the same rolls and says "that was lucky", they are instead meaning something more like a speculation of why it happened: "That series of events is not what the laws of physics dictated would happen - an external force called 'luck' intervened."
Not sure I was going anywhere with that, but there's how I look at "luck".
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I believe that, for classically random events such as dice rolls, what people call "luck" is actually just confirmation bias.
On a larger scale, I've seen that most events are not totally random -- and that some people live their lives setting themselves up for more likely contingencies (good or bad) and then attribute them to "luck."
In my experience, there's no such thing as luck.
"Good luck" is what we say when things go our way.
"Bad luck" is what we say when things do not go our way.
Neither is a conscious force controlling our destinies. Both are our perceptions after-the-fact.
In the OP's case, I would agree with Kirth's confirmation bias theory. Likely what is happening is that Paul got a few bad rolls at a critical period, and now even though he also has good rolls, the only rolls you notice are his bad ones, which are reinforcing the notion of his "bad luck."
Same goes for Matt. He probably got a good roll or two at a critical moment, and now even though he sometimes gets bad rolls, every good roll appears to reinforce the notion in your mind of "good luck."
Truth be told, it is all a matter of coincidence. If a player rolls connsistently well at key times a pattern will be seen even if it is just randomness. Take the example I gave above, sure my brother rolled 5 20s in a row but it wasn't like he's done it more than once in his life and it is unlikely he will be able to duplicate the scenario again. However, given the unlikeliness of the event and others like it, it gives the illusion that my brother has "luck". I honestly just believe that he has good dice rolling skills.
I honestly just believe that he has good dice rolling skills.
You're saying you believe your bother knows how to roll the dice "just so" so that a specific number is more likely to come up?
Unless he is doing the old trick of turning up a number he likes, and just dropping the dice down to try to get it to land right, I would have a really hard time believing that. Once the dice leave his hand, he has no control whatsoever on how they roll on the table. It would be completely random at that point. (Unless his dice are loaded.)
Once the dice leave his hand, he has no control whatsoever on how they roll on the table. It would be completely random at that point.
Well, in strictest point of fact it would depend on initial angle, velocity, and rotation; air resistance; and surface interactions when striking the table... in short, it's all pre-determined, but appears random because we are not able to perceive or assess the individual variables that go into it.
The roll of an unloaded die is strictly deterministic, but can be treated as being totally "random" for all intents and purposes.
hm luck, maybe, or karma.
I try to shy away from anything less than "proven", but there was something that happened to me when playing cards against a certain individual. Once I flopped nut flush on this guy and got all my chips in. Runner runner full house. Another time Ak against A3, all in after flop and he catches 3 on turn to win. Both outcomes were possible, as they happened, but just unlikely. *Shrugs* maybe he had better karma is what I thought.
diplomacy check
Once the dice leave his hand, he has no control whatsoever on how they roll on the table. It would be completely random at that point.Well, in strictest point of fact it would depend on initial angle, velocity, and rotation; air resistance; and surface interactions when striking the table... in short, it's all pre-determined, but appears random because we are not able to perceive or assess the individual variables that go into it.
The roll of an unloaded die is strictly deterministic, but can be treated as being totally "random" for all intents and purposes.
My point was, unless the brother is a superhero, I cannot see how he could be in control of all those tiny variables.
hm luck, maybe, or karma.
I try to shy away from anything less than "proven", but there was something that happened to me when playing cards against a certain individual. Once I flopped nut flush on this guy and got all my chips in. Runner runner full house. Another time Ak against A3, all in after flop and he catches 3 on turn to win. Both outcomes were possible, as they happened, but just unlikely. *Shrugs* maybe he had better karma is what I thought.1d20+0 diplomacy check
I don't think that's what Karma is about, though. At its core, Karma is about the positivity you put into the world coming back to you similarly, and the negativity you put into the world doing the same.
In short, if you treat people badly, you will be treated badly. If you treat people well, you will be treated with good will. Not sure how that would apply to what sounds like a fairly neutral card game.
With enough practice, you can get a die to land the way you want it.
All I can say with any certainty is that I am 41 years old, and in that time I've seen a lot of people roll a lot of dice, but I've never seen anybody who could get the result he wanted without loaded dice.
[All I can say with any certainty is that I am 41 years old, and in that time I've seen a lot of people roll a lot of dice, but I've never seen anybody who could get the result he wanted without loaded dice.
I suspect that you associate with a generally better class of people than I used to.
I do not belive in luck , but i have an old red d20 that nobody can touch.
I don´t known why?
"No creo en brujas, pero que las hay, las hay..." Miguel de Cervantes.
"I don't believe in witches , but they surely exist!" Miguel de Cervantes.
I always constantly derided my gamer friends for being so superstitious about their dice, as I usually take a pretty rational approach. I roll certain dice, not out of any idea that they roll better, but just aesthetic purposes; I just like how my black D20s look/feel in my hand.
Well, I didn't believe in luck until I began to game with my friend Jeff. Guy has BAD LUCK. We've kept track of how many 1s he rolls. Keeping track of the result of every game-related (attacks, skills, saves, etc.) d20 roll he made for about a month, he rolled 1s about 8% of the time, and rolled 10 or under 83% of the time total. Multiple dice, multiple rolling methods, one unlucky dude.
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I believe that, for classically random events such as dice rolls, what people call "luck" is actually just confirmation bias.
On a larger scale, I've seen that most events are not totally random -- and that some people live their lives setting themselves up for more likely contingencies (good or bad) and then attribute them to "luck."
Absolutely perfect reply.
I knew a guy...
We're scientists. So the fact that he kept rolling ones anecdotally wasn't enough. He wrote down every single d20 roll he made during an entire AP.
Every.
Single.
Roll.
Turns out he really does roll ones more than average. About 250% more ones than average. About 10% more 20s than average. In the entire adventure path he rolled enough 10s for me to count on my two hands. The graph looked like a skewed parabola with 75-80% of the numbers below 10-11 midpoint. The numbers above the 10-11 midpoint were consistently very high numbers, generally 15+.
Yes I believe in luck. I've seen the math.
I knew a guy...
We're scientists. So the fact that he kept rolling ones anecdotally wasn't enough. He wrote down every single d20 roll he made during an entire AP.
Every.
Single.
Roll.
Turns out he really does roll ones more than average. About 250% more ones than average. About 10% more 20s than average. In the entire adventure path he rolled enough 10s for me to count on my two hands. The graph looked like a skewed parabola with 75-80% of the numbers below 10-11 midpoint. The numbers above the 10-11 midpoint were consistently very high numbers, generally 15+.
Yes I believe in luck. I've seen the math.
None of the dice we are using are true. They come nowhere near what Vegas rules would require for true randomness. In fact what you describe sounds like exactly what is going on. A slightly egg shaped die (too much time in the rock polisher) where the thin ends of the 'egg' are at 10 and 11. You'll see they are at opposite sides on a modern d20. The thicker sides o the eggs are at the 1 and 20 part (again if you look you'll see that they are on opposite sides and perpendicular to you 10/11 axis). The result is more 1's and 20s and less 10s and 11s. Furthermore if you look at the numbers around the d20 you'll see that you do in fact get that exact parabola if two 'sides' of our egg shaped d20 are wider then the other two sides. That is 12 and 9 are located near 10 and 11 (and therefore will come up rarely) while 2 and 19 are near 1 and 20 (and will come up more often).
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I believe that hit shappens.
None of the dice we are using are true. They come nowhere near what Vegas rules would require for true randomness. In fact what you describe sounds like exactly what is going on. A slightly egg shaped die (too much time in the rock polisher) where the thin ends of the 'egg' are at 10 and 11. You'll see they are at opposite sides on a modern d20. The thicker sides o the eggs are at the 1 and 20 part (again if you look you'll see that they are on opposite sides and perpendicular to you 10/11 axis). The result is more 1's and 20s and less 10s and 11s. Furthermore if you look at the numbers around the d20 you'll see that you do in fact get that exact parabola if two 'sides' of our egg shaped d20 are wider then the other two sides. That is 12 and 9 are located near 10 and 11 (and therefore will come up rarely) while 2 and 19 are near 1 and 20 (and will come up more often).I knew a guy...
We're scientists. So the fact that he kept rolling ones anecdotally wasn't enough. He wrote down every single d20 roll he made during an entire AP.
Every.
Single.
Roll.
Turns out he really does roll ones more than average. About 250% more ones than average. About 10% more 20s than average. In the entire adventure path he rolled enough 10s for me to count on my two hands. The graph looked like a skewed parabola with 75-80% of the numbers below 10-11 midpoint. The numbers above the 10-11 midpoint were consistently very high numbers, generally 15+.
Yes I believe in luck. I've seen the math.
But dice picked randomly out of a Box O' Dice for every game? Yes dice are by definition miscast. But the chances of every single die he used (multiple lots and manufacturers) having the exact same oblong foci are less likely than his roll distribution.
Not saying it doesn't happen. Just sayin' we took more than a few things into account.
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I've always had incredibly bad luck with dice rolls. I once got into an argument with someone over it, so we tracked our rolls for an entire 40k campaign. (Most everything is a d6)
My average came out to about 2.3
The campaign I am currently participating in with this character, my average on the d20 is less than 5.
I very much do believe in luck.From the way I hear people talk about luck, I think I must define it differently than other people do. See, I don't think of luck as some kind of external force that intervenes to alter the outcome of an event that would have otherwise ended differently.
Rather, I think of luck as a description of the desirability or undesirability of what does happen (though only if it's outside the direct control of the observer).
For instance, if I see a string of good die rolls (and believe the person was not cheating) and say "that was lucky" it's merely a statement of fact: "That was a desirable series of events over which you exercised no control."
If I'm understanding people right, then if someone else witnesses the same rolls and says "that was lucky", they are instead meaning something more like a speculation of why it happened: "That series of events is not what the laws of physics dictated would happen - an external force called 'luck' intervened."
Not sure I was going anywhere with that, but there's how I look at "luck".
Perhaps my question was poorly phrased. Do you believe that some people are intrinsically more likely to have a desirable series of events over which they have no control occur to them (specifically when it comes to games of chance like rolling a dice) than others.
I honestly just believe that he has good dice rolling skills.You're saying you believe your bother knows how to roll the dice "just so" so that a specific number is more likely to come up?
Unless he is doing the old trick of turning up a number he likes, and just dropping the dice down to try to get it to land right, I would have a really hard time believing that. Once the dice leave his hand, he has no control whatsoever on how they roll on the table. It would be completely random at that point. (Unless his dice are loaded.)
Ummm not really. He just has a higher than average amount of good rolls. It's all in the wrist anyways.