Yes but they spent so much on Marvel do they have any left? Also if Disney were to buy WotC does that mean the kids from the animated tv series will have a cameo along with Wolverine in Kingdom Hearts: Forgotten Realms?That would actually be kind of cool :-)
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!
I FEAST UPON YOUR SUFFERING!
Bella Sara Charter Superscriber
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I have a hard time imagining a scenario in which such a deal could herald good news for D&D, but I'm open to being surprised.Could it be good for Pathfinder, though? If, and I don't think it will happen, D&D "disappears", who'll be the biggest producer of RPGs? Certainly Paizo/Pathfinder would be somewhere on any shortlist...
I want to say yes, but if D&D goes down, it would be a crisis in the tabletop community and it's always hard to predict how it will play out. Does the death of D&D mean Pathfinder loses it's largest competitor and becomes the heir to the throne? Do the new corporate masters decide to push out 5e and, in the process, go after users of the OGL using b@*&$&%@ claims? Does the death of D&D damage the rpg book market so much that the big chains don't even bother to carry those lines anymore? Is D&D spun off/sold to a non-Paizo entity, which then drives the brand so deeply into the ground that it casts a pall on roleplaying and severely damages player recruitment?
I can spin scenarios either way at this point.
I have a hard time imagining a scenario in which such a deal could herald good news for D&D, but I'm open to being surprised.Could it be good for Pathfinder, though? If, and I don't think it will happen, D&D "disappears", who'll be the biggest producer of RPGs? Certainly Paizo/Pathfinder would be somewhere on any shortlist...I want to say yes, but if D&D goes down, it would be a crisis in the tabletop community and it's always hard to predict how it will play out. Does the death of D&D mean Pathfinder loses it's largest competitor and becomes the heir to the throne? Do the new corporate masters decide to push out 5e and, in the process, go after users of the OGL using b!!!&@%* claims? Does the death of D&D damage the rpg book market so much that the big chains don't even bother to carry those lines anymore? Is D&D spun off/sold to a non-Paizo entity, which then drives the brand so deeply into the ground that it casts a pall on roleplaying and severely damages player recruitment?
I can spin scenarios either way at this point.
I dub thee: Official Devil's Advocate.
*Knights Sebastian and places a wreath around his neck*
You may continue this thread now.
I have a hard time imagining a scenario in which such a deal could herald good news for D&D, but I'm open to being surprised.Could it be good for Pathfinder, though? If, and I don't think it will happen, D&D "disappears", who'll be the biggest producer of RPGs? Certainly Paizo/Pathfinder would be somewhere on any shortlist...I want to say yes, but if D&D goes down, it would be a crisis in the tabletop community and it's always hard to predict how it will play out. Does the death of D&D mean Pathfinder loses it's largest competitor and becomes the heir to the throne? Do the new corporate masters decide to push out 5e and, in the process, go after users of the OGL using b#@!#!&# claims? Does the death of D&D damage the rpg book market so much that the big chains don't even bother to carry those lines anymore? Is D&D spun off/sold to a non-Paizo entity, which then drives the brand so deeply into the ground that it casts a pall on roleplaying and severely damages player recruitment?
I can spin scenarios either way at this point.
Not to mention, all that developer talent that may get pushed out of the market.
TSR's downfall was not due to "too many settings" but in the "too heavy investment required to print 50,000 copies of a book that ultimately might only sell 10,000 copies".
That problem no longer exists in todays marketplace.
Paizo's success can be partially attributed to the new reality that you can "create" as many "ideas" as you want and only print on demand.
It is possible that someone is going to realize that no one needs to have a warehouse full of old D&D products in order to sell a copy of Module C3. Print on demand, if marketed correctly, will make Hasbro more money than they can count. You want first edition character sheets? Done. You want "Blizzard Pass"? Done. You want "Ravenloft"? Done. And the cost to make that single item is practically nothing, PDF file, simple machine interface, we can have it out the door today.
When my self published novel was made available at Amazon I was a little scared that they advertised the book could be delivered in two days, but they came through on every order.
If Hasbro invests in creating quality PDF files of all of TSR's "history" of products they will have a soft market that can be stored on one hard drive and put out any edition, any book, any module, any accessory, for practically nothing in up front costs.
You do realize this goes against pretty much everything Paizo staff has said about how they opperate. They pay very careful attention to how many of each product they need to produce so that they do not overproduce any given product. Even after it sells out, they wait to make sure there is enough demand before considering a reprint, because they cannot afford to have inventory pile up and not sell.
APPEAR
Contributor
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I'm all for it. Anything that gets the brand out of the hands of a corporation....
Unless of course they're an ultra anti-D&D religious group out to kill the brand, that would be pretty lame.
If they are attempting to take control of Hasbro its likely going to be a leveraged buy out. Sine Hasbro is worth 6 billion give or take the private equaty firm is going to have to raise (borrow) maybe 4 billion dollars to pull this off. Thats fine and it certainly can be done but leveraged buy outs are some what risky. Once they pull this off the Private Equaty firm now has creditors knocking on their door demanding the interest payments on 4 billion dollars.
Hence the object being acquired needs to make cash - as much as possible as quickly as possible so that you can pay off the 4 billion dollar loan as quickly as possible and start seeing profits.
Some of the key features one wants to see in the target of a leveraged buy out:
* Low existing debt loads;
* A multi-year history of stable and recurring cash flows;
* Hard assets (property, plant and equipment, inventory, receivables) that may be used as collateral for lower cost secured debt;
* The potential for new management to make operational or other improvements to the firm to boost cash flows;
* Market conditions and perceptions that depress the valuation or stock price.
+1
Been following Hasbro for some time, myself. I believe (for what its worth) market conditions have depressed the valuation, and consumer confidence fears have overplayed the bleak future, amplifying the bad valuation.
The only thing I'd add to the list is that it's not just stable, recurring cashflows, but we also have to look at FFO (free from operations) cashflows to see how cash intensive it is to run the business. This speaks to operational flexibility and the power to change cost and debt structures in a given year.
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Yes I agree, which is why I said "partially". Paizo does sell products from other publishers in the "Print on Demand" format, and I would not expect the company to disclose exactly what products it prints in "quantity" and what products it does not. It is still a fledgling process,...You do realize this goes against pretty much everything Paizo staff has said about how they opperate. They pay very careful attention to how many of each product they need to produce so that they do not overproduce any given product. Even after it sells out, they wait to make sure there is enough demand before considering a reprint, because they cannot afford to have inventory pile up and not sell.TSR's downfall was not due to "too many settings" but in the "too heavy investment required to print 50,000 copies of a book that ultimately might only sell 10,000 copies".
That problem no longer exists in todays marketplace.
Paizo's success can be partially attributed to the new reality that you can "create" as many "ideas" as you want and only print on demand.
It is possible that someone is going to realize that no one needs to have a warehouse full of old D&D products in order to sell a copy of Module C3. Print on demand, if marketed correctly, will make Hasbro more money than they can count. You want first edition character sheets? Done. You want "Blizzard Pass"? Done. You want "Ravenloft"? Done. And the cost to make that single item is practically nothing, PDF file, simple machine interface, we can have it out the door today.
When my self published novel was made available at Amazon I was a little scared that they advertised the book could be delivered in two days, but they came through on every order.
If Hasbro invests in creating quality PDF files of all of TSR's "history" of products they will have a soft market that can be stored on one hard drive and put out any edition, any book, any module, any accessory, for practically nothing in up front costs.
POD demand still remains more expensive. If price elasticity is high, then passing on the additional costs drives down sales. If it drives sales volumes low enough then, even at higher prices per unit, POD is not a better option. The tradeoff curve between volume and price is what's at issue, really. Of course traditional offset printing -- even out of China -- means taking on risk. Apparently the folks at Paizo have assessed price elasticity versus offset printing risk + warehouse costs and decided that POD still doesn't win.
I'm not surprised. I've no idea what per unit price Erik and co. get from their printer or where the breakdowns (ie 1,000 units at X, 10,000 units at Y% of X) are, but when I was thinking about this business, what I could dig up showed POD close but not a win. The real money was still in 256+ page hardcovers printed offset -- even subcontracting your warehousing to a facilitator.
My 2cp
Stuff
Seems like a logical break down of possible future events.
3. The D&D RPG will survive but continue it's evolution into a big box toy store product and away from the nichey game store product it has been throughout its history. Hasbro will want D&D on the shelf next to Monopoly and Stratego in "Toy R' Us" just like Magic is today. I think 4E was the first step in this direction. I believe this is represented nicely in the new "Encounters" product that is being marketed now. This product essentially does away with the notion of a campaign and provides one shot game sessions for ad-hoc groups, just like you would for a game of Monopoly.
In other words, where I bought almost all of my D&D and AD&D stuff in the first place.
~sense~
This sounds right to me.
Hasbro made a statement that day that they were not interested in selling, and enjoyed some nice stock trading on their company due to the press.
It wasn't due to seeking them out at Toys R Us. It was due to actually discovering D&D there. I might have eventually discovered D&D through "game store nichey" friends, but it would have been later in life. I actually did discover it because, at one time, it had a niche in the market.
By observing this, I'm not dismissing your questions about what changes this might mean.
Cibet,
Why do you think Heroscape's latest expansion is D&D?
If you look at the way the products have been changing/adjusting they're already moving towards that format anyway.
This thread.
Hasbro ain't selling.
Even if they did, there would be roughly zero benefits compared to the risk of dissolving D&D, and it would be intensely stupid to dissolve WotC.
I get that some of you hate 4e with a passion, but for god's sakes, use some reason and logic here. The business world doesn't revolve around you hating 4e.
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Bella Sara Charter Superscriber
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*shrug*
The fate of D&D really depends on how well it is doing. WotC might can it on their own, or cut back the number of releases, or make any other number of changes to the line depending on how it is performing, irrespective of what Hasbro decides (and I highly doubt Hasbro does extensively micromanages D&D at WotC). If a private equity fund acquired Hasbro (which could happen even if existing management of Hasbro doesn't consent, although that is unlikely), they might take a more active role in WotC, and could squeeze hard to increase its profits, which could mean changes (including possible death) to D&D.
D&D doesn't have a golden ticket to continue existing in tabletop form. As near as I can tell, WotC is not run by gamers as it was back in the pre-Hasbro days, and if D&D is deemed to be a bad performer, it will be changed or killed (likely starved to death).
At the end of the day, this is all speculation heaped upon speculation. D&D is a tiny, tiny corner of Hasbro. WotC seemed to devote substantial resources to the 4e launch. If that launch was/is successful, it's very likely D&D will continue to exist and be supported. If that launch did not meet expectations, the brand will likely be slimmed down, relaunched, or shelved.
Barring inside information, no one here can say with any certainty how well D&D is doing or how likely it is to continue at its current level of support at WotC. We can guess, we can speculate, we can harness bile and form it into angry rants, but we can't know the facts with any level of certainty.
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This thread.
Hasbro ain't selling.
Even if they did, there would be roughly zero benefits compared to the risk of dissolving D&D, and it would be intensely stupid to dissolve WotC.
I get that some of you hate 4e with a passion, but for god's sakes, use some reason and logic here. The business world doesn't revolve around you hating 4e.
I think you may need to reread this thread. The discussion had nothing to do with hating 4e. It had to do with the uncertainty of what would happen in case a LBO occurred. If I have to choose between your knee jerk "shut up haters" or some of the reasoned, thought out scenarios above, I'll go with the ones above. You do realize several scenarios were posted by 4e supporters WORRIED about what would happen, right?
And yes, if Hasbro were bought out by a group intent on streamlining & cannibalizing the firm for quick profit, you damn well better be worried about D&D. Its too small potatoes to avoid the accounting axe. Lets hope this doesn't happen so we can leave the discussion in the realm of the hypothetical.
Wow this is a seachange for Hasbro if it occurs (and I think it will). I think if you look closely at all the recent layoffs in the D&D space coming from Hasbro the writing is on the wall. I've been trying to puzzle out what all the layoffs in the D&D space meant so soon after the release of 4E and I think this proposed LBO is the missing piece. Hasbro has been in a cost cutting/debt reduction mode in preparation for this LBO.
Nobody prepares for a Leveraged Buy Out. For one thing one of the most likely results of a Leveraged Buy Out is senior management is let go. If a big private equity firm did an LBO on Hasbro all the middle management types and those below them would probably be fine but top management could expect, at a minimum to have a the sword of Damocles hanging over their heads and many would probably be fired pretty much on the spot to be replaced by experts that the Private Equity Firm has used before to successfully take over a company and make the process profitable.
Nobody prepares for a Leveraged Buy Out.
Not strictly true. In my experience,companies prepare in a lot of ways - poison pills, golden parachutes, even the way they structure contracts and debts. But you're right in the sense that preparations are designed to fight LBO's by making them as painful as possible for the buyer. Like what a puffer fish does. That said, I have no idea what provisions Hasbro has in place to discourage a buyout.
EDIT: There are business-types who can do a much better job of explaining. I've always been more on the tech side, but enjoyed talking with controllers and corporate lawyers.
Nobody prepares for a Leveraged Buy Out.Not strictly true. In my experience,companies prepare in a lot of ways - poison pills, golden parachutes, even the way they structure contracts and debts. But you're right in the sense that preparations are designed to fight LBO's by making them as painful as possible for the buyer. Like what a puffer fish does. That said, I have no idea what provisions Hasbro has in place to discourage a buyout.
Transformers with little knives, stalking the hallways.
My Little Ponies with fiberglass hair.The usual.
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Nobody prepares for a Leveraged Buy Out.Not strictly true. In my experience,companies prepare in a lot of ways - poison pills, golden parachutes, even the way they structure contracts and debts. But you're right in the sense that preparations are designed to fight LBO's by making them as painful as possible for the buyer. Like what a puffer fish does. That said, I have no idea what provisions Hasbro has in place to discourage a buyout.Transformers with little knives, stalking the hallways.
My Little Ponies with fiberglass hair.
The usual.
They've got HeroScape figures set up at the bottoms of 20ft pits to act like pungee sticks.
I can tell some people here aren't feeling happy.
Here's a button for such people:
Big Shiny Blue Button
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It wasn't due to seeking them out at Toys R Us. It was due to actually discovering D&D there. I might have eventually discovered D&D through "game store nichey" friends, but it would have been later in life. I actually did discover it because, at one time, it had a niche in the market.
Pretty much exactly my experience, circa 1985. Except I discovered it at a Waldenbooks (IIRC) in the local mall.
-Skeld
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I can tell some people here aren't feeling well.
Here's a button for such people:
Big Shiny Blue Button
DO NOT WAAAAANNNNTTTT!!!!
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DO NOT WAAAAANNNNTTTT!!!!I can tell some people here aren't feeling well.
Here's a button for such people:
Big Shiny Blue Button
IT'S A TRAP!
C'mon. You know there's some people here that NEED to push that button. I'm just helping. Oh, it hurts to be misunderstood.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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and then there is this: Living Forgotten Realms is being handed over to the community...
Wonder what this means for organized play.
I have sources who wrote for this saying that they're not being paid for the work they already did and scheduled for publication. That's just dirty pool.
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and then there is this: Living Forgotten Realms is being handed over to the community...
Wonder what this means for organized play.
I have sources who wrote for this saying that they're not being paid for the work they already did and scheduled for publication. That's just dirty pool.
it could hardly be any worse.
Can't we all just get along?
I can tell some people here aren't feeling happy.
Here's a button for such people:
Big Shiny Blue Button
~hangs my head in shame~ I could not resist.
Can't we all just get along?Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!
Well, now you're just being unreasonable!
and then there is this: Living Forgotten Realms is being handed over to the community...
Wonder what this means for organized play.
I have sources who wrote for this saying that they're not being paid for the work they already did and scheduled for publication. That's just dirty pool.
Agreed, but I can't say I'm surprised. WotC has lost its way (and no, that's not a dig on 4E, which I happen to think is a fine game).
Well, now you're just being unreasonable!Can't we all just get along?Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!
Nuh uh, he's perfectly reasonable!
and then there is this: Living Forgotten Realms is being handed over to the community...
Wonder what this means for organized play.
I have sources who wrote for this saying that they're not being paid for the work they already did and scheduled for publication. That's just dirty pool.
I can only hope that the success of Pathfinder adventures is a signal in regard to re-thinking the approach, as quality matters more than quantity. To further that point, if in fact the work force is shrinking, but does not mark the end of 4E, then perhaps a re-focus of strategy will re-kindle the path 4E takes. It would not take much thinking or effort to bring some of the strongest points in regards to 3.5 back to the game.
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I can only hope that the success of Pathfinder adventures is a signal in regard to re-thinking the approach, as quality matters more than quantity. To further that point, if in fact the work force is shrinking, but does not mark the end of 4E, then perhaps a re-focus of strategy will re-kindle the path 4E takes. It would not take much thinking or effort to bring some of the strongest points in regards to 3.5 back to the game.and then there is this: Living Forgotten Realms is being handed over to the community...
Wonder what this means for organized play.
I have sources who wrote for this saying that they're not being paid for the work they already did and scheduled for publication. That's just dirty pool.
Skerrit said basically the same thing in the discussion thread here. Unfortunately, this puts me in the opinion that they may be ready to shelf FR the way they shelfed Greyhawk. I'm not much for speculation, I'd rather see some hard proof before I make a more firm statement of my opinion.
I can tell some people here aren't feeling happy.
Here's a button for such people:
Big Shiny Blue Button
The best thing about that is that you can activate it again before the first one expires, creating a sort of polyphonic chorus of 'nooooooooos.'
ooooooooooooooooooo
noooooooooooooooooo
oonoooooooooooooooo
ooooonooooooooooooo
ooooooooonooooooooo
oooooooooooonoooooo
ooooooooooooooonooo
ooooooooooooooooooo
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Skerrit said basically the same thing in the discussion thread here. Unfortunately, this puts me in the opinion that they may be ready to shelf FR the way they shelfed Greyhawk. I'm not much for speculation, I'd rather see some hard proof before I make a more firm statement of my opinion.I can only hope that the success of Pathfinder adventures is a signal in regard to re-thinking the approach, as quality matters more than quantity. To further that point, if in fact the work force is shrinking, but does not mark the end of 4E, then perhaps a re-focus of strategy will re-kindle the path 4E takes. It would not take much thinking or effort to bring some of the strongest points in regards to 3.5 back to the game.and then there is this: Living Forgotten Realms is being handed over to the community...
Wonder what this means for organized play.
I have sources who wrote for this saying that they're not being paid for the work they already did and scheduled for publication. That's just dirty pool.
Quite some time ago they mentioned releasing a couple of settings books a year and then move onto other settings. Them shelving a setting and then moving onto the next seemed part of the plan for 4E. I am not really sure this is really a bad idea honestly.
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Contributor, RPG Superstar 2008 Top 6
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Actually, one nice thing about being bought out by a private equity firm is they might well leave you mostly alone. That's what happened to the company I worked for when they got acquired. It's different than being bought out to be folded into an existing corporate entity.
In theory, they'll IPO the company some day when conditions are right, and re-public it.
Nobody prepares for a Leveraged Buy Out.Not strictly true. In my experience,companies prepare in a lot of ways - poison pills, golden parachutes, even the way they structure contracts and debts. But you're right in the sense that preparations are designed to fight LBO's by making them as painful as possible for the buyer. Like what a puffer fish does. That said, I have no idea what provisions Hasbro has in place to discourage a buyout.
EDIT: There are business-types who can do a much better job of explaining. I've always been more on the tech side, but enjoyed talking with controllers and corporate lawyers.
Sure...but my point was no one at Hasbro was hoping to be the target of a LBO - their actions where not to convince someone to try an LBO on Hasbro, which was the misconception I was responding too.