So, my PCs look set to be finishing TINH at 3rd level, and Gambit is designed for 4th (and the Kraken Cove bit of it is tough even at that).
I want to run Escape from Meenlock Prison from #146 to bridge the two adventures, level the PCs up, and introduce an ongoing subplot I've been planning, but I'm having trouble working out how to run the transition. The main problem is that at the end of TINH (assuming the PCs decide not to join up with Rowyn, of course...) the PCs find Vanthus's letters, in which he talks about his planned heist at Kraken's Cove. Surely the obvious thing for them to do once they find this out would be to head straight away to the Cove in order to intercept him as soon as possible.
Any suggestions as to how I can delay the beginning of Gambit a bit, so I can run Prison? Having Lavinia send them on some sort of unrelated side-quest doesn't really fit, since it'd be a bit out of character for her to see anything as a higher priority than hunting down Vanthus at this stage. Delaying Vanthus's plan (and mentioning the planned date in the letters) is a bit of a worry, since it might mean that the PCs will decide to get to Kraken Cove early to lay an ambush, and get caught in the Tide themselves. Not really sure how to make this work...
As a classic tool for delaying the party's actions, use the good old sandby "weather"
Have a hurricane roll in (or threaten to ) on Sasserine, swamping the coast with heavy swells, high winds and further flooding the flood plains between Sasserine and Blood Bay. Even torrential rains should make maritime navigation very hard, and also significantly hamper overland travel through wilderness. Especially since the jungles of the Chulth peninsula are well-known for their population of murderous Yuan-Ti, which low-level PCs might want to avoid ? This might also as a nice foreshadowing of the tropical storms in "The Sea Wyverns Wake", making those appear less "surprising"...
Alternatively - it is highly likely that the PCs will run some inquiries about Kraken's Cove, its inhabitants and faction in Sasserine. Have some trustworthy/less untrustworthy source indicate that the Smuggler's etc regularly meet in Kraken's Cove at some specific date, filling the harbour with dozens of ships and equally large numbers of nervous scoundrels. This might scare your players into delaying their visit to some date after this "meet" - and perhaps engaging in some adventurous activity to hone their skills ?
Or if the players are dependent on outside transportation (say, by a local fisherman ), have a religious festival intercede which occupies the local "transporters" or makes sea-travel by them "taboo" for a number of days, paying their respects to Umberlee or other maritime entities ?
In our STAP, the first option was used, which also worked nicely for setting the "tropical" mood
Maybe place the letter in Meenlock Prison itself. Just looking through it, you could link it in that one of Vanthus' old thieve friends was sent there. While visiting (before the group took ovet the prison), he dropped the letter, and never got a chance to return for it. Alas, I don't have either issues on me atm, so can't check, but it'd need a little tweeking. Could work though...