
Iaurinn o-Lossaeglir |

Revising my plan; I think you'll like my new numbers better.
Sounds great! :) Thanks for going through all that effort.
Incidentally, I'd be glad to hear your argument for the hidden value of big-ticket buildings! I'm sure I'm only seeing part of the picture.
Note that I do find big-ticket buildings worthwhile on the long run, even if just for the psychological value. I just think that they are not worth it right now. As soon our Economy comes of age and renders their initial construction costs relatively trivial, things will probably change.

Kyrademon |

OK. New plan. Uses the following rules of thumb --
1) Econ and Loyalty should ideally be no more than 2 under DC (one is a failure anyway, so if a roll of two is a success it's the best we can do).
2) Stability should ideally be no more than 6 under DC, although higher is better.
3) Expanding and aiming for Duchy and road bonuses is more ideal than "sitting tight".
4) Claiming the hills around Stronghold is in general a good idea
5) At the moment, we only want one of any building type in any given city district (prevents more than 1 more dump at present, I don't want an Otyugh problem)
So, here's the plan. The only flaws are 1) Stability lags slightly behind the ideal on a few turns, but honestly holding out until we can get the Duchy bonus is the best way to get it there at small cost, 2) 2 turns call for deficit spending, one mild, one not mild but within what I would consider acceptable risk/reward bounds (and it is also possible by the time we get there we might have more in the Treasury than I predict; I am trying to be conservative):
Turn 16:
Claim Plains, build farm, road, free castle, monument, dump (mild deficit spending)
DC 36, Econ 35, Loy 35, Stab 30, Treas (end of turn) ~9 BP
Turn 17:
Claim Hills, build farm, road, Graveyard, adjust stab edict
DC 37, Econ 36, Loy 36, Stab 31, Treas ~13 BP
Turn 18:
Claim Hills, build farm, road, Graveyard, adjust loyalty edict
DC 38, Econ 37, Loy 38, Stab 31, Treas ~17 BP
Turn 19:
Claim Mud Pits, build road, farm
DC 39, Econ 38, Loy 38, Stab 31, Treas ~24 BP
Turn 20
Claim Lizardman Lair and Hill hex, build 1 road, farm (20th road, Duchy bonus)
DC 41, Econ 39, Loy 38, Stab 37, Treas ~30
Turn 21
Sit tight
Treas ~43
Turn 22
Build 1 house and 1 black market (deficit spending)
DC 41, Econ 41, Loy 28, Stab 37, Treas ~4

Kyrademon |

Don't plan too much ahead, guys. Who knows what will happen to your kingdom and its leaders. You may all end up as owlbear dinner, or whatever. ;)
I know, I know, but ... if we really want to save up for a pricy item like a black market without just saying "aaand we're boring and do nothing for 4 turns", I don't see how we can do it without having a plan in mind, even if it must be adjusted to events as they come up.

Olwen |

SARENITH 4712 AR (turn 15)
START:
Economy: +32
Loyalty: +27
Stability: +24
DC: 34
Unrest: 0
Treasury: 11 BP and 3,375 gp
Special:
- Priests of Arshea: +23
Roll: 10, failure, no bonus to Stability rolls
- Temple Courtesans: +24
Roll: 4, failure, no bonus to Loyalty rolls
- Missionaries: 5 Missionaries explore hex Southeast of "Hex N"; +15
Roll: 13, total of 28 to escape Hazards
Your missionaries escape danger unscathed, but they report something in this hexagonal region.
Upkeep phase
Stability check: Roll 14, Success (+1 BP)
Consumption: 1
Magic items:
- minor item 1: arcane scroll [350 gp] -- continual flame (CL 3rd), rope trick (CL 3rd)
- minor item 2: a potion of darkness [300 gp]
- minor item 3: a wand of make whole, 50 charges [4,500 gp]
- medium item 1: a necklace of fireball, type IV [5,400 gp]
- medium item 2: a pinch of dust of emulation [800 gp] from the APG
Unrest: Loyalty check for presence of Kobolds -- Roll 9, Success
Improvement phase
Changes in leadership: None
Claimed Hexes: Claim Plains Hex (Cost 1 BP, +1 Command DC, +1 Consumption)
City improvement: Build Dump in Leventon (Cost 4 BP, +1 Loyalty, +1 Stability); Build Exotic Craftsman in Stronghold (Cost 5 BP, +1 Loyalty, +1 Stability, 1 minor item)
Roads: Build Roads in newly claimed Plains hex (Cost 1 BP)
Farmlands: Build Farm in newly claimed Plains hex (Cost 2 BP, -2 Consumption)
Edicts: No change
Income phase
Deposits/withdrawals: None
Magic items (Economy currently + at this point in turn; DC 35 for medium items; DC 20 for minor items; 3 city districts)
- Sell minor item, a wand of make whole, 50 charges [4,500 gp]
Roll: 8, Success
- Sell medium item, a necklace of fireball, type IV [5,400 gp]
Roll: 12, Success
- Sell medium item, a pinch of dust of emulation [800 gp] from the APG
Roll: 8, Success
Total: 10,700 gp + 3,375 gp from past turns = 14,075 gp = 3 BP and 2,075 gp
Income (economy check): Roll 15, success, total of 47 (+9 BP)
Event phase
1d100 ⇒ 93, a calm month in Gwendor.
END:
Economy: +32
Loyalty: +29
Stability: +26
Consumption: 0
DC: 35
Unrest: 0
Treasury: 10 BP and 2075 gp

Iaurinn o-Lossaeglir |

Don't plan too much ahead, guys. Who knows what will happen to your kingdom and its leaders. You may all end up as owlbear dinner, or whatever. ;)
There are countless ways a Rogue who plans ahead can die before he becomes a Shadowdancer. There is no way a Rogue who doesn't plan ahead can ever become a Shadowdancer.

Kyrademon |

Notes, commentary, correction (probably irrelevant because this is so early):
I was apparently somehow under the impression that a graveyard gives both an economy and loyalty bonus; apparently it is only a loyalty bonus. I will revise.
So ... new plan. Same as the old, but it calls for building two monuments rather than two graveyards and monkeying with taxes. It actually has the benefit of keeping Loyalty within desired tolerances the entire time, which the old one didn't. Stability in both plans is actually only below tolerance on two turns (by one point and two point, respectively).
However, the new plan cuts the theoretical money tolerance down to the wire on the last turn. Bear in mind, however, that:
(1) I am deliberately using slightly conservative monetary estimates here. We could very well end up with a larger "cushion" at the end of turn 21, making the deficit spending less of a risk.
(2) If it is not larger, waiting an additional turn is always an option (but bear in mind that, if I understand the rules correctly, what a negative balance will do is cause 2 unrest during the next Consumption phase. While nonideal, this means that the real result is that we would have to roll a 4 rather than a 2 on the next loyalty check, and in the worst case scenario where we fail it that means we would need to build 2 houses rather than 1 on turn 23 to take care of the unrest, on a turn when we will already be generating a major magic item to pay for them.)
REVISION:
Turn 16: Claim Plains, build farm, road, free castle, monument, dump (mild deficit spending)
DC 36, Econ 35, Loy 35, Stab 30, Treas (end of turn) ~9 BP
Turn 17: Claim Hills, build farm, road, adjust stab edict
DC 37, Econ 35, Loy 35, Stab 31, Treas ~17 BP
Turn 18: Claim Hills, build farm, road, monument, taxes to normal, adjust loyalty edict
DC 38, Econ 37, Loy 36, Stab 31, Treas ~19 BP
Turn 19: Claim Mud Pits, build road, farm, monument, taxes to heavy
DC 39, Econ 39, Loy 37, Stab 31, Treas ~20 BP
Turn 20: Claim Lizardman Lair and Hill hex, build 1 road, farm (20th road, Duchy bonus), taxes to normal
DC 41, Econ 39, Loy 39, Stab 37, Treas ~26
Turn 21: Sit tight
Treas ~39
Turn 22: Build 1 house and 1 black market (deficit spending)
DC 41, Econ 41, Loy 39, Stab 37, Treas ~0

Iaurinn o-Lossaeglir |

I was apparently somehow under the impression that a graveyard gives both an economy and loyalty bonus; apparently it is only a loyalty bonus. I will revise.
I believe the Graveyard got errata'd by Paizo. Luckily, the Dump, Monument, and Brothl didn't. We're going to have a lot of tidy, proud, and sinful cities. ;D
The new plan sounds good. I believe the conservative income estimates should work out. In our experience, bad events can cost us quite a few BP, but we can mitigate them with good kingdom checks (which we should usually be able to make). On the other hand, good events can bring us quite a few BPs as well. In the worst case, we might just have to pause for a Turn to reduce Unrest and refill our Treasury.
Let's assume a particularly bad SNAFU: (1) Another Owlzilla-equivalent even costs us 10 BP and +2 Unrest. (2) We fail the Stability check catastrophically (this part is very likely); +2 Unrest. (3) We fail the kobold check as well (easy with a -4 penalty!); +1 (or 2?) Unrest.
What do we do in such a case? Build two or three Houses? Or maybe a City Wall (8 BP, -2 Unrest) and a House? We have to reduce Unrest as much as possible to be able to make the Economy checks later in the Turn. It's not trivial.
In my opinion the Stability becomes too low in the intermediate stages of that plan. Ideally, it should be only 5 below the DC so that we don't fail by more than 5 (unless we're getting hit with lots of Unrest).
A +2 Unrest increase is bad. We do have means to deal with it, but it costs us money (building currently unnecessary houses etc.) and has a possibility of causing much more damage with other failed checks. In the end, dealing with the fallout of low Stability may be more expensive in terms of BP and maybe even Turns than going slightly slower in the first place and building up that Stability.
If we go with your plan, I strongly suggest we pour some of the extra income that we will most likely be getting above the minimum assumption into Mills and Smiths to bolster Stability (with welcome extra points for Economy).

Kyrademon |

If we go with your plan, I strongly suggest we pour some of the extra income that we will most likely be getting above the minimum assumption into Mills and Smiths to bolster Stability (with welcome extra points for Economy).
Agreed.
Also bear in mind we have "nontraditional" options at our disposal to increase Stability should we opt for them -- using personal funds to buy magic hats for Jhod and Svetlana, 8th level stat boosts if we get them in time, focusing my leadership feat nearly entirely on recruiting masses of Priests of Arshea to make a +1 bonus Stability very likely, clever use of cleverness by you, Hemael, and Sempor to shave off BP's until we raise the price of a Mill, etc.

Kyrademon |

Oh, hey, I think I built an unnecessary farm in there ... the forest hex will have a net 0 consumption ... that could make turns 19 and 20:
Turn 19: Claim Lizardman Lair, build monument, taxes to heavy
DC 39, Econ 38, Loy 37, Stab 32, Treas ~24 BP
Turn 20: Claim Mud pits and Hill hex, build 2 roads, farm (20th road, Duchy bonus), taxes to normal
DC 41, Econ 39, Loy 39, Stab 37, Treas ~30
Which brings our conservative theoretical "cushion" at the end back to ~4 BP, and increases stability by +1 on turn 19 while Economy is still "in bounds".

Iaurinn o-Lossaeglir |

Or just claim the Mud Pits AND the Lizardman lair on the same turn and build a farm and road in the Mud Pit hex ... then we keep Econ at 39 on turn 19 ... net result the same ...
That won't give us the Duchy bonus earlier, will it? Generally claiming a hex later than sooner is better because the DC stay lower. Even if that hex has a resource, such as the mud pits, that's still an effective -1 to each of the other stats.
Good point with the non-traditional ways of boosting Stability. Maybe we can find a way to exploit some of the events to that end. For instance, we could make big news out of how Kesten's guards stayed calm in the face of the horrible owlbear and managed to drive him back out with coordinated heroic effort. If people believe we have a top-notch peacekeeping force in town, it will be almost as beneficial for our Stability as if we actually had one.
(Do we have a newspaper in Gwendor yet? Such propag-- eh, "objective news" deserve to be spread into every corner of the barony!)

Kyrademon |

Regarding big-ticket buildings -- I'll leave the role-playing reasons aside, although they are significant, and focus on the "boardgame" aspect, since that's the discussion at present.
So, first, in my opinion you "stacked the deck" a little by picking Arena-then-Garrison as your example, arguably the worst monetary trade-off for a big-ticket path.
I should point out, however, that even in this case I believe it was a deliberate design choice, as it leads to the half-price city walls. City walls, like houses, are deliberately designed to be placed multiple times in a city. The "7 city walls to make the money back" example is actually a perfectly reasonable number of walls for a two-district city; as your the city expands it may call for even more. On top of that you get the very nifty half-price jail, etc. Long-term, even Arena/Garrison will pay itself back and then eventually give you bargains.
However, other paths have much more merit even in the short term. Instead of Arena/Garrison, let's take a look at Cathedral/Academy.
We start with the Cathedral, a building you have rated a respectable 3.1; certainly there are better bargains, but it's nearly as good as a mill or brewery or library.
But now that we've built it, the Academy shoots up to being a *very* attractive 6.6. And then you get a half-priced Caster's Tower (a 10), Magic Shop (10.2!) and Library (6.6!) And remember you've been touting a full-priced library at 3.3 as an excellent bargain.
Almost all of the above buildings are quite expensive, so the half-off is also saving SCADS of BPs. You can spend 5 turns saving for a Magic Shop, or you can build your good-value Cathedral first, and your next five turns will then get your Magic Shop PLUS an Academy.
Similarly, good-value Waterfront leads to excellent value half-price Market leads to fantastic value half-priced Black Market (an actual 12 - only a half-priced brothel is a better deal, and brothels are MUCH easier to obtain at full price.)
So, in my opinion, the sooner we get some of these good bargains built, the sooner we will have access to GREAT bargains that will increase our wealth and power immeasurably.

Kyrademon |

So, with suggested changes incorporated, our current "7 month plan" for Gwendor is:
Turn 16: Claim Plains, build farm, road, free castle, dump (mild deficit spending)
DC 36, Econ 35, Loy 32, Stab 30, Treas (end of turn) ~12 BP
(Note: Monument for loyalty boost could be built here instead of next turn at price of higher deficit spending)
Turn 17: Claim Hills, build farm, road, monument, adjust stab edict
DC 37, Econ 35, Loy 35, Stab 31, Treas ~14 BP
(Note: Sufficient extra money in treasury above baseline from this point on could be used for a mill or similar Economy/Stability increase)
Turn 18: Claim Hills, build farm, road, monument, taxes to normal, adjust loyalty edict
DC 38, Econ 37, Loy 36, Stab 31, Treas ~16 BP
Turn 19: Claim Lizardman Lair, build monument, taxes to heavy
DC 39, Econ 38, Loy 37, Stab 32, Treas ~22 BP
Turn 20: Claim Mud pits and Hill hex, build 2 roads, farm (20th road, Duchy bonus), taxes to normal
DC 41, Econ 39, Loy 39, Stab 37, Treas ~27
(Note: Sufficient extra money in treasury from this point on could be used to build an extra farm and adjust stability edict upwards.)
Turn 21: Sit tight
Treas ~40
Turn 22: Build 1 house and 1 black market (deficit spending)
DC 41, Econ 41, Loy 39, Stab 37, Treas ~1

Kyrademon |

The GM says we can plan on moving through about 4 months (including the already-rolled Sarenith) up until the wedding.
Looking at the adjusted stats, I still think we should generally proceed with the already agreed-upon plan, making only minor tweaks. Slow expansion while saving to build a Black Market still seems ideal. I'd recommend keeping Sarenith as we had it; it was a good plan and the stats we were aiming to up still need upping.
Projected stability looks a bit better now with the added +2, although we're still "holding out" for the Duchy bonus to some extent.
Here's what I've got after tweaking:
The +2 to all stats mid-Gozran leads to: +1 BP economy end of Gozran, +1 BP stability start of Desnus, +1 BP economy end of Desnus ... and -3 BP “watchtower” forgotten costs, so effectively the same. :)
So our current stats at the end of Desnus (Turn 14) are:
DC 34, Economy: +34, Loyalty: +29, Stability: +26, Consumption: 1, Unrest: 0, Treasury: 11 BP and 3,725 gp
---
Future turns:
Turn 15
Suggest we leave plans for Sarenith unchanged --
Claim plains hex, build road, farm, Dump (Leveton), Exotic Craftsman (Stronghold) – (NOTES: one more minor item/month, third Stronghold block complete)
Known stats, end of Sarenith (prerolled):
DC: 35, Economy: +34, Loyalty: +31, Stability: +28, Consumption: 0, Unrest: 0, Treasury: 9 BP and 2075 gp
---
Turn 16 (Erastus):
Suggest we found city at Dancing Lady, claim plans hex, build road (road #16), farm, Free castle (Dancing Lady), Dump (Dancing Lady)
Projected stats, end of Erastus:
DC: 36, Economy: +37, Loyalty: +34, Stability: +32, Consumption: 0, Projected Treasury: ~14 BP
---
Turn 17 (Arodus):
Claim hill hex by Stronghold, build road, farm, Monument (Leveton), increase promotions to standard, increase taxation to Light
Projected stats, end of Arodus:
DC: 37, Economy: +38, Loyalty: +35, Stability: +33, Consumption: 0, Projected Treasury: ~15 BP
---
Turn 18 (Rova)
Claim hill hex by Stronghold, build road, farm, increase festivals to 6/year
Projected stats, end of Rova:
DC: 38, Economy: +38, Loyalty: +36, Stability: +33, Consumption: 0, Projected Treasury: ~22 BP

Olwen |

(Since the Magister has signed off on this plan, and the others seem disinterested, I am willing to move forward on making rolls whenever suits you.)
I'm not sure I'll be able to do so this afternoon (I'm working on something else I want to try and finish). If I have time today, I'll repost Sarenith, just to be sure, and start Erastus. Otherwise we'll proceed over the weekend.

Olwen |

A little retcon before moving on…
SARENITH 4712 AR (turn 15)
START:
Economy: +34
Loyalty: +29
Stability: +26
DC: 34
Unrest: 0
Treasury: 11 BP and 3,725 gp
Special:
- Priests of Arshea: +23
Roll: 10, failure, no bonus to Stability rolls
- Temple Courtesans: +24
Roll: 4, failure, no bonus to Loyalty rolls
- Missionaries: 5 Missionaries explore hex Southeast of "Hex N"; +15
Roll: 13, total of 28 to escape Hazards
Your missionaries escape danger unscathed, but they report something in this hexagonal region.
Upkeep phase
Stability check: Roll 14, Success (+1 BP)
Consumption: 1
Magic items:
- minor item 1: arcane scroll [350 gp] -- continual flame (CL 3rd), rope trick (CL 3rd)
- minor item 2: a potion of darkness [300 gp]
- minor item 3: a wand of make whole, 50 charges [4,500 gp]
- medium item 1: a necklace of fireball, type IV [5,400 gp]
- medium item 2: a pinch of dust of emulation [800 gp] from the APG
Unrest: Loyalty check for presence of Kobolds -- Roll 9, Success
Improvement phase
Changes in leadership: None
Claimed Hexes: Claim Plains Hex (Cost 1 BP, +1 Command DC, +1 Consumption)
City improvement: Build Dump in Leventon (Cost 4 BP, +1 Loyalty, +1 Stability); Build Exotic Craftsman in Stronghold (Cost 5 BP, +1 Loyalty, +1 Stability, 1 minor item)
Roads: Build Roads in newly claimed Plains hex (Cost 1 BP)
Farmlands: Build Farm in newly claimed Plains hex (Cost 2 BP, -2 Consumption)
Edicts: No change
Income phase
Deposits/withdrawals: None
Magic items (Economy currently + at this point in turn; DC 35 for medium items; DC 20 for minor items; 3 city districts)
- Sell minor item, a wand of make whole, 50 charges [4,500 gp]
Roll: 8, Success
- Sell medium item, a necklace of fireball, type IV [5,400 gp]
Roll: 12, Success
- Sell medium item, a pinch of dust of emulation [800 gp] from the APG
Roll: 8, Success
Total: 10,700 gp + 3,725 gp from past turns = 14,075 gp = 3 BP and 2,425 gp
Income (economy check): Roll 15, success, total of 49 (+9 BP)
Event phase
1d100 ⇒ 93, a calm month in Gwendor.
END:
Economy: +34
Loyalty: +31
Stability: +28
Consumption: 0
DC: 35
Unrest: 0
Treasury: 10 BP and 2425 gp (I think your numbers were too low by 1 BP and a few hundred gps. Correct me if I'm wrong.)
NOTES: one more minor item/month, third Stronghold block complete
(I'll be posting Erastus 4712 AR (turn 16) this afternoon.)

Olwen |

ERASTUS 4712 AR (turn 16)
START:
Economy: +34
Loyalty: +31
Stability: +28
DC: 35
Unrest: 0
Treasury: 10 BP and 2,425 gp
Special:
fill in
Upkeep phase
Stability check: fill in
Consumption: 0
Magic items:
- minor item 1: arcane scroll [350 gp] -- continual flame (CL 3rd), rope trick (CL 3rd)
- minor item 2: a potion of darkness [300 gp]
- minor item 3: +1 quarterstaff [2600 gp]
- minor item 4: scroll of misdirection (CL 3rd) [150 gp]
- medium item 1: +3 furious, frost siangham [50303 gp]
- medium item 2: 5 +3 darts [18,300 gp]
Unrest: Loyalty check for presence of Kobolds -- fill in
Improvement phase
Changes in leadership: None
Claimed Hexes: fill in
City improvement: fill in
Roads: fill in
Farmlands: fill in
Edicts: fill in
Income phase
Deposits/withdrawals: None
Magic items (Economy currently + at this point in turn; DC 35 for medium items; DC 20 for minor items; 3 city districts)
fill in
Income (economy check): fill in
Event phase
1d100 ⇒ 44, something happens… (1d100 ⇒ 26, 1d100 ⇒ 39)
[ooc]consider you have one road less for the next 1d4 ⇒ 1 rounds.
END:
Economy:
Loyalty:
Stability:
Consumption:
DC:
Unrest:
Treasury:

Kyrademon |

NOTE: Tweaked plan for month due to results of magic item generation; see text below and notes following.
ERASTUS 4712 AR (turn 16)
START:
Economy: +34
Loyalty: +31
Stability: +28
DC: 35
Unrest: 0
Treasury: 10 BP and 2,425 gp
Special:
- Priests of Arshea: +30
Roll: 16, success, +1 bonus to Stability rolls this month
- Temple Courtesans: +17
Roll: 14, failure, no bonus to Loyalty rolls
- Missionaries: 5 Missionaries explore northernmost unexplored hex (other than Fairy Nest hex); +15
Roll: 13, total of 28 to escape Hazards
Upkeep phase
Stability check: Roll 9; Success, +1 BP
Consumption: 0
Magic items:
- minor item 1: arcane scroll [350 gp] -- continual flame (CL 3rd), rope trick (CL 3rd)
- minor item 2: a potion of darkness [300 gp]
- minor item 3: +1 quarterstaff [2600 gp]
- minor item 4: scroll of misdirection (CL 3rd) [150 gp]
- medium item 1: +3 furious, frost siangham [50303 gp]
- medium item 2: 5 +3 darts [18,300 gp]
Unrest: Loyalty check for presence of Kobolds; Roll 7; Success, unrest does not increase
Improvement phase
Changes in leadership: None
Claimed Hexes: Plains Hex (west of Leveton) - (Cost 1 BP, +1 Consumption, +1 DC); Hex N2 (Lizardman Lair) - (Cost 1 BP, +1 DC, +1 Stability)
City improvement: Found city - Dancing Lady (+1 Consumption); Claim free Castle at Dancing Lady (+2 Econ, +2 Loy, +2 Stab, +8 City Defense, -4 Unrest); Build Dump at Dancing Lady (Cost 4 BP; +1 Loy, +1 Stab); Build Monument in Leveton (Cost 6 BP, +3 Loy, -1 Unrest)
Roads: Build 2 roads in newly claimed hexes (Sempor reduces cost of forest hex road+bridge from 4 to 3); (Cost 1+3=4 BP; includes 16th road so +1 Econ, +1 Stab)
Farmlands: Build farm in newly claimed Plains hex (Cost 2 BP; -2 Consumption)
Edicts: Increase Taxation to Light (+1 Econ, -2 Loy)
Income phase
Deposits/withdrawals: None
Magic items (Economy currently +38 at this point in turn; DC 35 for medium items; DC 20 for minor items; 4 city districts)
- Sell medium item 1: +3 furious, frost siangham [50303 gp]
Roll 3; success
- Sell medium item 2: 5 +3 darts [18,300 gp]
Roll 18; success
- Sell minor item 3: +1 quarterstaff [2600 gp]
Roll 6; success
- Sell minor item 1: arcane scroll [350 gp] -- continual flame (CL 3rd), rope trick (CL 3rd)
Roll 6; success
TOTAL: 71,553 gp = 17 BP and 3553 gp
Income (economy check): Roll 7; Success, 9 BP
Event phase
1d100 ⇒ 44, something happens… (1d100 ⇒ 26, 1d100 ⇒ 39)
[ooc]consider you have one road less for the next 1d4 ⇒ 1 rounds.
END:
Economy: +38
Loyalty: +35
Stability: +33
Consumption: 0
DC: 37
Unrest: 0
Treasury: 20 BP and 1978 gp
NOTES:
- Given the near-certainly of selling a 12 BP item this month, I decided to go forward with the same basic plan but on an accelerated schedule. Basically, we are where we predicted being at the end of Arodus, but with 5 BP in the Treasury over our prediction! The magic item economy is finally paying off.
- Castle and dump in Dancing Lady, and Monument in Leveton, can go in any logical locations. Suggest Monument go outside Inn to mark the entrypoint into the (formerly) stolen lands and commemorate the explorers, traders, and immigrants who founded Gwendor

Olwen |

- Missionaries: 5 Missionaries explore northernmost unexplored hex (other than Fairy Nest hex); +15
Roll: 13, total of 28 to escape Hazards
Your missionaries report on the presence of a very interesting series of thermal springs in this region. The sulfur stench put aside, it's likely they could have some economical value. However, your people realized the hard way that these springs are infested by giant frogs.
It shouldn't be too difficult for the kingdom's rangers to deal with them, though.Treasury: 20 BP and 1978 gp
I'm actually reaching a final treasury of only 18 BPs, assuming no changes to the edicts. I may have missed something:
10 (start) +1 (Stability) -2 (hex claims) -4 (dump) -6 (monument) -4 (roads) -2 (farm) +17 (magic items) +9 (Economy) = 19 BPsOr am I missing something?

Kyrademon |

10 (start) +1 (Stability) -2 (hex claims) -4 (dump) -6 (monument) -4 (roads) -2 (farm) +17 (magic items) +9 (Economy) = 19 BPs
Or am I missing something?
+1 for combined "leftover" gp from item sales = 20
(I'm happy to move on to Arodus whenever you like, btw, or wait if you would prefer.)

Olwen |

ARODUS 4712 AR (turn 17)
You're considered as having one road less. Does this impact your stats for this round? If so assume you get the penalty, and we can retcon if needed.
START:
Economy: +38
Loyalty: +35
Stability: +33
DC: 37
Unrest: 0
Treasury: 20 BP and 1,978 gp (Thanks for the explanation on the 20 BP)
Special:
fill in
Upkeep phase
Stability check: fill in
Consumption: 0
Magic items:
- minor item 1: potion of bull strength [300 gp]
- minor item 2: potion of darkness [300 gp]
- minor item 3: potion of hide from animals [50 gp]
- minor item 4: scroll of misdirection (CL 3rd) [150 gp]
- medium item 1: gem of brightness [13,000 gp]
- medium item 2: cloak of the bat [26,000 gp]
You are quite lucky with magic items. :)
Unrest: Loyalty check for presence of Kobolds -- fill in
Improvement phase
Changes in leadership: None
Claimed Hexes: fill in
City improvement: fill in
Roads: fill in
Farmlands: fill in
Edicts: fill in
Income phase
Deposits/withdrawals: None
Magic items (Economy currently + at this point in turn; DC 35 for medium items; DC 20 for minor items; 3 city districts)
fill in
Income (economy check): fill in
Event phase
Gwendor is calm, the summer is hot… and a wedding is being planned.
END:
Economy:
Loyalty:
Stability:
Consumption:
DC:
Unrest:
Treasury:

Kyrademon |

You're considered as having one road less. Does this impact your stats for this round? If so assume you get the penalty, and we can retcon if needed.
No change; the loss of 1 road only brings us down to 16.
You are quite lucky with magic items. :)
Yay! With another 10 BP or so expected from magic items in Arodus, I will calculate to see if another "accelerated" month is practical ...
Will do the rolls in an hour or so. :)

Kyrademon |

ARODUS 4712 AR (turn 17)
START:
Economy: +38
Loyalty: +35
Stability: +33
DC: 37
Unrest: 0
Treasury: 20 BP and 1,978 gp (Thanks for the explanation on the 20 BP)
Special:
- Priests of Arshea: +28
Roll: 20, success, +1 bonus to Stability rolls this month
- Temple Courtesans: +19
Roll: 13, failure, no bonus to Loyalty rolls
- Missionaries: 5 Missionaries explore northernmost unexplored hex (other than Fairy Nest hex); +15
Roll: 16, total of 31 to escape Hazards
Upkeep phase
Stability check: Roll 13; Success, +1 BP
Consumption: 0
Magic items:
- minor item 1: potion of bull strength [300 gp]
- minor item 2: potion of darkness [300 gp]
- minor item 3: potion of hide from animals [50 gp]
- minor item 4: scroll of misdirection (CL 3rd) [150 gp]
- medium item 1: gem of brightness [13,000 gp]
- medium item 2: cloak of the bat [26,000 gp]
Unrest: Loyalty check for presence of Kobolds; Roll 3; Success - unrest does not increase
Improvement phase
Changes in leadership: None
Claimed Hexes: Claim 2 Hill Hexes - "W" and "E2" (Cost 2 BP, +2 DC, +2 Consumption)
City improvement: Build Smith in Stronghold (Cost 6 BP, +1 Economy, +1 Stability)
Roads: Build 2 roads in newly claimed hexes (Cost 2 BP)
Farmlands: Build farm in Hex "W" (Cost 4 BP, -2 Consumption)
Edicts: Change taxes to none (-1 Econ, +2 Loyalty)
Income phase
Deposits/withdrawals: None
Magic items (Economy currently +38 at this point in turn; DC 35 for medium items; DC 20 for minor items; 4 city districts)
- Sell medium item 1: gem of brightness [13,000 gp]
Roll 19; Success
- Sell medium item 2: cloak of the bat [26,000 gp]
Roll 4; Success
- Sell minor item 1: potion of bull strength [300 gp]
Roll 13; Success
- Sell minor item 2: potion of darkness [300 gp]
Roll 3; Success
TOTAL: 39,600 gp = 9 BP and 3,600 gp, plus 1978 "leftover" gp = 10 BP and 1578 gp
Income (economy check):
Roll 16; success, +10 BP
Event phase
Gwendor is calm, the summer is hot… and a wedding is being planned.
END:
Economy: +38
Loyalty: +37
Stability: +34
Consumption: 0
DC: 39
Unrest: 0
Treasury: 27 BP and 1578 gp
NOTES:
Decided to continue with accelerated plan. We are now 2 months and 5 BP ahead of schedule. Minor tweak - since 2nd farm cannot be built in same turn, built Smith rather than make Promotions Edict adjustment.
Lilac suggests the Smith in Stronghold be built next to the Town Hall. That gives us 4 and a half completed blocks -- halfway to a full city district!

Olwen |

ROVA 4712 AR (turn 18)
START:
Economy: +38
Loyalty: +37
Stability: +34
DC: 39
Unrest: 0
Treasury: 27 BP and 1,578 gp
Special:
fill in
Upkeep phase
Stability check: fill in
Consumption: 0
Magic items:
- minor item 1: sustaining spoon [5,400 gp]
- minor item 2: sovereign clue [2,400 gp]
- minor item 3: potion of hide from animals [50 gp]
- minor item 4: scroll of misdirection (CL 3rd) [150 gp]
- medium item 1: ring of minor spell storing
- medium item 2: potion of neutralize poison (CL 5th) [750 gp]
Unrest: Loyalty check for presence of Kobolds -- fill in
Improvement phase
Changes in leadership: None
Claimed Hexes: fill in
City improvement: fill in
Roads: fill in
Farmlands: fill in
Edicts: fill in
Income phase
Deposits/withdrawals: None
Magic items (Economy currently + at this point in turn; DC 35 for medium items; DC 20 for minor items; 3 city districts)
fill in
Income (economy check): fill in
Event phase
1d100 ⇒ 30. Something happens! (1d100 ⇒ 18, 1d100 ⇒ 48)
Nobles in your cities are bickering. Unless you can smooth over ruffled feathers with a Loyalty check, the feud increases Unrest by 1d6.
END:
Economy:
Loyalty:
Stability:
Consumption:
DC:
Unrest:
Treasury:

Olwen |

So, if I am correct, that leaves three hexes now unexplored (the one SW of "N", and then two a little further south) if we don't count the Fairy Nest "National Park", yes?
Yes, that's right. There's quite a few things that have been found in these hexes and that you guys will need to decide on on Wednesday. :)
We'll stop after Rova, it should be enough for now, and retconning is a bit of a pain, so we shouldn't get too far ahead of ourselves.
I'm curious what Lilac has planned for her duchy, but I have my little idea. ;)

Kyrademon |

ROVA 4712 AR (turn 18)
START:
Economy: +38
Loyalty: +37
Stability: +34
DC: 39
Unrest: 0
Treasury: 27 BP and 1,578 gp
Special:
- Priests of Arshea: +41
Roll: 1; Automatic Failure, no bonus to Stability (Wow. The Courtesans really are just better at this, huh?)
- Missionaries: 5 Missionaries explore hex Southwest of "N"; +16
Roll: 17; total of 33 to escape potential Hazards
Upkeep phase
Stability check: Roll 8; Success, +1 BP
Consumption: 0
Magic items:
- minor item 1: sustaining spoon [5,400 gp]
- minor item 2: sovereign clue [2,400 gp]
- minor item 3: potion of hide from animals [50 gp]
- minor item 4: scroll of misdirection (CL 3rd) [150 gp]
- medium item 1: ring of minor spell storing
- medium item 2: potion of neutralize poison (CL 5th) [750 gp]
Unrest: Loyalty check for presence of Kobolds -- Roll 17; Success, no increased unrest
Improvement phase
Changes in leadership: None
Claimed Hexes: Claim Hex "P2" Mud Puts (Cost 1 BP, +1 DC, +1 Consumption, +1 Economy); Claim Hex "L2" River Ford (Cost 1 BP, +1 DC, +1 Consumption)
NOTES: Gwendor is now a Duchy! Lilac adds Duchess bonus to Stability (+5 Stability)
City improvement: Build Monument in Dancing Lady (Cost 6 BP, +3 Loyalty, -1 Unrest)
Roads: Build 2 roads in newly claimed Hexes (Cost 2 BP; Includes 20th road, +1 Economy)
Farmlands: Build farms in Hex "P2" (Cost 4 BP, -2 Consumption)
Edicts: No changes to edicts
Income phase
Deposits/withdrawals: None
Magic items (Economy currently +40 at this point in turn; DC 35 for medium items; DC 20 for minor items; 4 city districts)
- Sell medium item 1: ring of minor spell storing [18,000 gp]
Roll 17; Success
- medium item 2: potion of neutralize poison (CL 5th) [750 gp]
Roll 18; Success
- Sell minor item 1: sustaining spoon [5,400 gp]
Roll 3; Success
- minor item 2: sovereign clue [2,400 gp]
Roll 4; Success
TOTAL: 26,550 gp = 6 BP + 2,550 gp; +1578 "leftover" gp = 7 BP and 128 gp
Income (economy check):
Roll 13; Success, +10 BP
Event phase
1d100 ⇒ 30 (Nobles in your cities are bickering. Unless you can smooth over ruffled feathers with a Loyalty check, the feud increases Unrest by 1d6.)
Loyalty check: Roll 19, Success
END:
Economy: 40
Loyalty: 40
Stability: 39
Consumption: 0
DC: 41
Unrest: 0
Treasury: 31 BP and 128 gp
NOTES:
Monument in Dancing Lady can be placed anywhere logical. Perhaps it should commemorate the lost tribes of elves who settled this land in centuries past?
We remain a solid two months ahead of schedule with 4 BP above baseline in the treasury and all stats better than predicted. One month of sitting tight in Lamashan (or very minor activity, if magic item sales are good) should mean we can build a Major Item producer in Neth! This assumes, of course, no "game-changing" events.
And who said Lilac has plans for the Duchy? All I said was that she had plans upon becoming a Duchess ... :)

Kyrademon |

LOOKING AHEAD:
The immediate short-term goal and top priority is, of course, building the Black Market.
After that, here would be Lilac's ideal short-range goals, assuming successful negotiations and no game-changing events:
1) Build three cities in rapid succession -- kobold city, Thornford, and temple of the Elk. One a month for three months would be nifty.
2) Begin building appropriate structures in each, including: half price Castle in Thornford; half-priced Temple, Graveyard, Monument, and Shrine at temple of the Elk; Library, Shrine, Monument, Park in kobold city. And, of course, Dumps, Monuments, and Brothels for all our subjects!
3) Settle the north, especially the northern plains. Claim the final couple of hexes around Stronghold. Aim to reach size 26 (up to 5 buildings/turn!) as soon as is feasible.
4) Build Cathedral in Stronghold. Begin Cathedral/Academy/Magic Shop sequence. Look forwards towards having complete district in Stronghold (equivalent XP of defeating a CR 11 threat.)
Bold? Ambitious? I hope so! Feasible? Have to run the numbers. :)

Iaurinn o-Lossaeglir |

Wow, that was some serious income these past months! Glad to see my students are doing their homework. :) I hope the Monk (or just Rich Collector) who bought that +3 furious frost siangham is happy with it, and recommends us around.
With our current stats, we can already sell a major item more than half of the time. Our Free Market (that sounds less criminal than Black Market...) should come in not a single Turn too early.
Suggest Monument go outside Inn to mark the entrypoint into the (formerly) stolen lands and commemorate the explorers, traders, and immigrants who founded Gwendor
That sounds great!
(I am ridiculously excited, incidentally, by the prospect of our becoming a Duchy in Rova, which seems a near-certainty. This is in part because Lilac has PLANS for when she becomes a Duchess.)
Commissioning a second crown to be worn on top of your current crown? Declaring Gnomish the official language of the Duchy? Instate a mandatory course in the Arshaean arts as part of the public education? Finally marry Bellatrix so we can add her Charisma bonus to yours...?
Monument in Dancing Lady can be placed anywhere logical. Perhaps it should commemorate the lost tribes of elves who settled this land in centuries past?
Iaurinn is of course in favor of commemorating the elves. :) He suggests the monument be a scaled-up replica of the original Dancing Lady sculpture we found in the keep. The creature that danced for us might have been a vagabond monster, but my guess is that the statue is much older, and depicts an actual Dancing Lady that lived during the elven settlement epoch.
As I remember, the statue was described as particularly evocative and life-like; maybe having it available as a model for what backwater sculptors we can hope to hire will improve the quality of the final result?
There's really no difference between them, but I think "Q" will make the General happier as it expands our Kingdom's middle a bit.
Yes, I think we can afford to beef up the central regions before expanding into the northwestern plains. We have to cheer up the General a bit when we tell him we won't be building the Arena for another year. ;)
And, of course, Dumps, Monuments, and Brothels for all our subjects!
Ah, the very pillars of our society! :)
Lilac's long-term plan looks good. [smaller](I am Iaurinn o-Lossaeglir, Magister of the Duchy of Gwendor and Lord of Candlemere, and I approve of this message.)[smaller]
Speaking of Monuments, I'd like the one in Candlemere to be a tall obelisk (as tall as we can make it! or maybe even a bit taller!) with everburning bricks inserted here and there. Those bricks should grow denser towards the top, and the endcap should be entirely made of them. We can then use a few castings of Stone Shape (from the Cleric list) to fuse the bricks together and render the obelisk appropriately monolithic. Furthermore, I would commission Hêmael and Sempor to summon Lantern Archons, who can use Continual Flame at will, and thus save us thousands of gp in material costs (a casting of Continual Flame otherwise costs 100 gp). The resulting "Candle" of Candlemere will commemorate the will-o-wisps that undoubtedly gave the island its name in the first place, and serve as a reminder both aesthetic and impressive of Candlemere's importance as Gwendor's center of magic and learning. Thanks to its location, it can be seen all the way from Stronghold on a clear night, and it might help us attract an extra tourist or two.
And yes, Candlemere also needs a top-notch... "bathhouse", with its share of highly skilled... "priestesses" of Calistria and Arshae, to serve the... "religious" needs of its educational and magical functionaries. :o)

Kyrademon |

As I remember, the statue was described as particularly evocative and life-like
... Huh. I missed that, somehow. Um, can we check with whoever we sold that to to see if we can make absolutely sure that the statue, shall we say, started life as a statue? Would detect magic have caught something like that?
The planned Candlemere monument sounds nifty. :)

Iaurinn o-Lossaeglir |

... Huh. I missed that, somehow. Um, can we check with whoever we sold that to to see if we can make absolutely sure that the statue, shall we say, started life as a statue? Would detect magic have caught something like that?
Oh, that's a scary thought. :\ I don't know how one would find that out. I'll spend an evening or two in the library of the Caster's Tower over that. It's not like there's currently anything better to do with one's evenings in Candlemere. ;o)
BTW, do you think the Continual Flame spell can make flames of different colors...?

Kyrademon |

Some more, somewhat disjointed thoughts on the immediate future:
1) BLACK MARKET: Whether we build the black market in the next month or the month following, I think, depends almost entirely on magic item generation. A lucky month means we could go into deficit spending at low risk; an unlucky month means we should hold out.
If we hold out next month (or don't but are EXTREMELY lucky with magic items), we could possibly still do some minor building or claiming.
2) POLITICS: There are a lot of political as practical considerations to be taken in the next few turns. If there weren't, frankly, I would probably suggest saving for a Cathedral as soon as we build the Black Market, but that probably won't be realistically possible for at least a few months, perhaps even half a year. Some of the considerations are included in the ruminations below.
3) HEX CLAIMS: The opening of the east presents us with a lot of possibility, including what looks like four plains hexes in the north. However, I think at this point high priority should be given to the last two hexes around Stronghold.
After that, there are a number of options for expansion both east and west.
4) FOREST HEXES: By my count, there are 27 forest hexes in our territory (more to the west may come under our purview in time, but we needn't worry about that now.) So we cannot under current agreements use more than 13 as cities or offsets. We currently have 4 claimed, and there are about 7 that look like worthwhile claims in the nearish to middish future, so this is probably not a worry yet; we aren't going to claim enough to risk stepping on toes for some time.
5) NEW CITIES: Included in the consideration of hex claims and farm building should be the three proposed new cities. All three of them are also high priority, for political reasons. Ground should be broken for the kobold city as soon as possible, and recent events have demonstrated that Thornford should be taken under our defensive wing sooner rather than late. And not only has Jhod been waiting patiently for his temple, but there are reasons Lilac may wish to placate him SOON (see below.) If ground could be broken on all three before the end of 4712, that would be ideal.
6) SMALL BUILDINGS: There are a few small buildings it's going to be important to build for reasons more than "numerical stat". I think we should put the "472-Tree Park" in Stronghold within the next two months.
Waterfront development in Stronghold should in our current situation perhaps be limited to low-impact, nonindustrial buildings (such as, perhaps, Park, Cathedral, Academy, Temple, Shrine, Graveyard, Herbalist, Library, and/or Theater). Honestly, this isn't a big impediment; with a full-price Black Market in Stronghold, other cities will actually be better suited to industrial Waterfront Development anyway, when we wish to build a half-price one elsewhere.
Buildings in Sootscale will need to be balanced between the practical and the culturally educational, but we should be sure to put some of the latter in as soon as possible (Shrine, Library, Park, etc.)
7) PAYING FOR THE PARK: Speaking of the Park, I am coming around to the idea that this is a very legitimate use for the withdrawal of 1 BP to pay Corax. It's for genuine diplomatic and ecological purposes, and not to line our pockets. The grumbling it will cause is highly unlikely to spin out of control; our people are more loyal, and our country more stable, than it has ever been. I vote we do it, next month or the month following.
8) BIG BUILDINGS: The half-priced castle and temple we should build as soon as we can, and frankly we should be able to without much fuss once we've got major item sales going. As soon as we can, though, I really want to start saving for a Cathedral/Academy/Magic Shop sequence in Stronghold ... but we've got so much on our plate first it's probably going to take a little while. Sigh.
9) WEDDING BELLS: So. Lilac will privately tell Iaurinn, Hemael, and Sempor that Bellatrix has accepted her proposal of marriage! Which may ... have some potential political fallout for the kingdom, so I thought it reasonable to bring it up here.
Subtle questioning has indicated that Jhod would likely not look favorably upon such a match. Hemael might be more amenable to performing the ceremony, and a priest of Arshea almost certainly would. And it is a reasonable (and true) excuse to tell Jhod that a long-time friend or a priest of my own religion performing the ceremony would make it more meaningful to me.
But. It is a real worry that our difficult-to-replace High Priest might resign in outrage over the activities of the Duchess. I would be eager to hear suggestions as to how best to placate him, within reason.
Also, there may be further concerns if Bellatrix decides to invite her mother and/or extended family to the ceremony. Such as, perhaps, armed guards, riot police, prepped Calm Emotions and Color Spray spells, that sort of thing. You know, preparation for what is apparently a typical wedding ceremony in Gwendor.

Iaurinn o-Lossaeglir |

3) HEX CLAIMS: [...] I think at this point high priority should be given to the last two hexes around Stronghold.
Agreed. I also think Hex M should be claimed to fill out the last "thin neck" in the main body of the Duchy.
After that, there are a number of options for expansion both east and west. [...] 4) FOREST HEXES
Personally, I would advise against taking a significant part of the forest right now. With the Forest Fey being an official part of our kingdom now, and pretty much the entire forest being linked up by a network of various local Fey and animals communicating with each other (AKA "fox news"), we have a pretty good and self-defending natural border to the west. We also have Dancing Lady and Thornford as our fortified "feelers" in the Forest that can provide an early warning and a strong front line in case of unforeseen consequences.
Instead, I advocate racing for the mountains as fast as we safely can. We do have the Varlings' blessing now, and who knows how long that might last. Better settle and fortify those precious border hexes sooner than later so we have a strong claim on them if the alliance should turn brittle.
Also, Hill hexes are inherently more valuable to us than Forests. Hills allow farming, which allow us to support cities (2 Farms = 1 City hex). A Forest hex does not contribute: The BP gain reducing the Consumption of 1 city district is offset by the hex's own Consumption. This makes owning Forest cost-neutral rather than actually costing us money, but it does not make Forest beneficial. There are still reasons to own some Forest hexes (e.g. to make a solid, defensible border towards the West), but while we have actually profitable land sprawled out like a gwen barador, if you'll excuse my Gnomish, to the East, that's where we should go. And prosper.
5) NEW CITIES [...] 7) PAYING FOR THE PARK:
Agreed on all accounts.
8) BIG BUILDINGS:
I would probably put the Black Market in another city than Stronghold so as to allow us to put a Waterfront in Stronghold and reap the benefits of a half-priced Black Market there. I would then suggest to put the first Black Market in Thornford, since it's the most well-defended city beside Stronghold, and well situated along the trade route (as opposed to Dancing Lady).
I would then put the Waterfront in Stronghold and the Cathedral sequence in our university town of Candlemere. By then, Candlemere should have been fed at least two servings of City Wall to protect its valuable assets appropriately.
9) WEDDING BELLS:
Yaaaay! Congratulations! :D *celebratory Glitterdust*
Also: We're getting a sizeable bonus to your Ruler bonus! Yaaaaay! :D
As for Jhod: Don't worry. We'll buy him a Temple and promise him some prime real estate in our future Cathedral. He'll be very receptive to Bellatrix's sky-high Diplomacy check after that. If that fails, have her cast Glibness and own him. (Iaurinn is very passionate about the subject of the sanctity of one's mind and one's privacy, but mostly when it applies to himself rather than some donkey-headed Religious Right zealots.)

Kyrademon |

Minor points:
I would probably put the Black Market in another city than Stronghold ... I would then put the Waterfront in Stronghold
Except (1) we promised Meliansee we wouldn't do that, and (2) we lose the advantage of the pre-built house in Stronghold, which could make a difference if the numbers are close.
He'll be very receptive to Bellatrix's sky-high Diplomacy check after that. If that fails, have her cast Glibness and own him.
Her Intimidation score is actually a lot better than her Diplomacy score. Hmm ...
We'll buy him a Temple and promise him some prime real estate in our future Cathedral.
My worry is he'll effectively demand the whole Cathedral for Eristil, and Lilac does *not* think that is acceptable.

Kyrademon |

Personally, I would advise against taking a significant part of the forest right now.
Yup. I'm pretty much agreed. The seven hexes I was referring to were the ones we want for cities (2), the one next to Stronghold (1), and the resource hexes (effectively 4). The first two categories we need.
The resources ... *shrug*. I understand your mathematical argument. But they're sometimes an easy way to expand without building an extra farm, though, so there may be times it's convenient to take them. No rush, however.