Many have noted that monsters have too high skill, perception, attack, and save bonuses, as well as too high AC. As far as I have observed it, they all seem to be about two points too high.
What if, when the bestiary was written, the rules for TEML was different? Instead of the -2 that lack of training/proficiency gives now, there was a +2 bonus that came with being trained?
Today, the XTEML (X standing for unskilled) bonuses are -2/+0/+1/+2/+3. With my proposed earlier setup, the XTEML bonuses would have been +0/+2/+3/+4/+5. That is EXACTLY two points better at basically everything. Very similar to how much all monsters seem "off" in ability.
Speculation, but it fits the facts I see.
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The AC is fine, the rest yes seems to be off by 2. If this is implemented, player AC should start at 8 as well, rather than 10.
I'm relatively certain that the +2 to monsters is there so that lower level creatures aren't impotent threats. If the monster had low damage, low HP, low AC/saves and low to hit, then they would offer little threat. By giving them a bonus to attacks and skills, they stay threatening while still being easily overcome.
I'd prefer it as a morale effect. Something like
"Back Against the Wall: Your opponent has nowhere to run and must stand and fight; dying now or dying later. The enemy has a +2 circumstance modifier to attacks and skill checks. This benefit is lost if they are given a chance to escape, surrender, or their leader is killed."
Then put together some rules for surrender and escape, specific to creature type, through diplomacy, bluff and/or lore skills.
Think will do this in houserule for some new players... Actual version is too deadly for newcomers
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The skill/Perc math is off because the devs made an admitted mistake.
The attack math isn't off because it's tied to lower damage. The creatures that do higher damage for their level have lower attack bonuses.
Essentially, the monsters have the same amount of offense as a PC of that level, just balanced differently so lower level monsters can still contribute against higher level PCs. This also helps PCs by decreasing variance and decreasing the payoff for monsters using tactics. PCs, doing more damage per hit, get more of a benefit from flanking.
Unfortunately there have been loopholes, like the crits from shortbows. Goblins should maybe use crossbows.
The AC math isn't off. In fact, most ACs are low for their level (again, compared to martial PCs w/ full gear). Many of the brutish creatures have ACs about 3 lower than a PC of similar level, but also have about +50% hit points. Since +3 to a PC's attacks equates to about +50% to damage (against crittable foes), this math balances.
So their defense (not counting saves which I haven't explored much) comes out similar to a PCs, again just balanced differently and in a way that lessens variance so helps PCs (assuming the fight is balanced in favor of the PCs winning.)
Hopefully their Reflex saves are lower too so that AoE effects get the same average-damage boost that attacking a lower AC provides. This means that Magic Missile attacks should be for high AC targets like Devils & Skeletal Undead (and incorporeal of course), but not so much for meatier enemies like Demons & Zombies.
There is a monster system at play to attempt to make creatures have similar degrees of offense & defense to those made using the ground-up PC class system. It may be a bit looser, i.e. allowing one to swap damage for better attack, but since players exploit loopholes, the PC system kinda has to be more rigorous.
It'd be interesting to see what kind of PCs could be made using the monster system though! Probably one's that need damage boosts & lots of extra healing...