Would like some advice on running a nighttime raid on Thistletop

[Mr. Grogg]

Spoilers Ahoy ---

At the end of our last session, the party had cleared out all the threats in the goblin tunnels leading to Thistletop. Gogmurt managed to send off the animal messenger to alert Ripnugget, but he did it off-screen so the players are unaware a warning was passed.

They actually spared Gogmurt in the end, who ran off to the south after providing the party with a lot of intel about the fortress on Thistletop. He didn't mention the bridge trap, though. He also claimed zero knowledge of what was downstairs, other than "the b@$+@ Nualia with her messed up arm." He blamed all his misfortune on her.

Night was falling and the party was spent on spells, so they decided to move off to a safe distance and make camp. They'll return the following night after sunset to make a nighttime raid.

They are four characters: A monk, a cleric, a druid (with a velociraptor companion), and a ranger. They all have lowlight vision or darkvision. I've decided there is a half moon. There will also be a lot of fog. I'm unsure how to run this combination as far as visibility.

I'm also unsure just how alerted to make Thistletop. They will have found a lot of dead and looted goblin bodies in the tunnels, and will have noticed the conspicuous absence of Gogmurt. They'll also know that Gogmurt signaled a retaliatory attack from Sandpoint. But it has also been a full 24 hours since that warning. Perhaps they'll think the raiders got the vengeance they came for and were daunted by the sight of an easily defensible bridge leading to an armed fortress, and went home? Or perhaps they'll be anticipating the nighttime raid.

Would anybody from below be tasked with reporting to the surface and providing additional muscle in defense? Bruthazmus, perhaps? Would some of the defenders of the fortress be sent out to defend the approach in the tunnels?

When there is a battle on the surface, I'm unclear how well sound travels to the subterranean levels. Are people downstairs going to immediately hear that there's a struggle, or is the stone thick enough that they will be oblivious?

Any other thoughts you think I should be thinking?

I've got almost two weeks to prepare - our next session is 1/21/17.

[Latrecis]

Do you want the good news or the bad news? The good news: there is no right or wrong answer to your questions. The bad news: there is no right or wrong answer to your questions.

Crummy, unhelpful answer: you should do whatever you think will make the ensuing encounters more interesting or fun for your group.

Are the pc's well optimized with high ability scores or non-optimized, quirky characters with 15 point buy ability scores? At low levels, the former can take on more challenges than the latter. How experienced are your players? More experience = capable of taking on more challenges.

The first attack appears to have happened before dusk. So the goblins should not necessarily anticipate a night time raid. And the words goblin and reliable don't work in the same sentence so the goblins can be as alert as you deem appropriate.

You can run the AP as written - the goblins are lax because they don't expect an attack and Orik and Bruthazmus are on level one in a relax/off-hour mode.

You could have the goblins be more alert, none of the stolen pickle or bird game nonsense, etc. Bruthazmus could be in the throne room to give Ripnugget and his boys some spine.

You could even have a few additional goblins "return from raiding/hunting" the next day and put them on watch on the mainland. Or have some of the goblins in Thistletop moved to the mainland. Be careful about adding reinforcements - the pc's earned a victory and the goblins should not have endless reinforcements.

How stealthy is your group? Do they have a good plan for sneaking up on the goblins? Is stealth one of their main tactics? If so give them something to sneak up on.

If all the mainland goblins and dogs are dead or missing and Gogmurt got off a warning, the goblins should be expecting trouble. And your pc's should really assume they will be, they left plenty of evidence of the attack even without a Gogmurt warning. It's not clear why the pc's want a night time attack perhaps they want an element of surprise - daylight the first time, night time the second. And the goblins might likely assume the attackers will be daylight dependent humans from Sandpoint. (And if the players actually came up with that logic on their own, that's the kind of plausible insight that should be made true just to reward smart and engaged players.)

[Mr. Grogg]

You make some excellent points. Thanks!

The players are pretty green and much of their success in the goblin tunnels came down to lucky rolls, not tactics. One of them in particular rolled three crits in a row against Gugmurt. It made me glad for my "all rolls must be fully visible to everybody" rule because I might not have believed it if I hadn't seen it.

Still, your point about expecting daylight-dependent Sandpoint humans and getting the PCs instead is a REALLY good excuse for having the goblins become more lax at night. I want to challenge the players, and I don't mind killing one or two, but TPKs tend to kill games.

Gogmurt left out mention of the bridge trap in hopes they would all die there. But it occurred to me today that the party consists of two medium and three small creatures - exactly the maximum safe load - so they can't set it off anyway. (Which is probably a good thing, because that bridge is a TPK waiting to happen. I could just rule that it takes less weight than what is written, but I don't really want them dead. If they had a rogue I might do that since they'd have a chance to see it, but as it stands, I'll keep it as-written.)

I suspect they'll probably seek to surveil Thistletop during the day while they wait for nightfall. So I'll let them see the bird game (I think it's great atmosphere for goblins) but it won't be distracting the goblins during the attack. Similarly, they'll see the very puzzling sight of a couple goblins pitching armloads of pickles out of their guard tower as Bruthazmus or Orik storms up their stairs and then carries them away by their ears.

They are planning on having a couple silence spells ready to keep things quiet. Thankfully, one of them has already mentioned to the rest that when guards suddenly find themselves unable to make a sound, they'll freak out. That hadn't occurred to three of the players and they were imagining it just keeping their activities quiet without actually alerting the targets of the spell. (Their sneaking skills are terrible - I'm expecting some Three Stooges style action.)

I was picturing the fortress on high alert and couldn't see a way for them to succeed. But your post gives me plenty of ideas on why they could still be in a lax defensive position. In fact, if they do surveil Thistletop during the day, I'll let them watch the place go from high alert to goblin shenanigans over time. The island will look crazily tough in the morning, but by afternoon there will be the bird game and the pickles. By evening maybe they'll watch a goblin set another goblin on fire for fun. They'll get a chance to watch goblin psychology in motion. Fun stuff.

Thanks for taking the time to reply!

[Kalshane]

I imagine regular goblins ("special" goblins like the commandos, warchanter, Gogmurt and Ripnugget being an exception) would be very confused by being inside a Silence spell and not immediately equate it with an attack. They'd probably try yelling, banging on things, start shoving things in their ears to clean them out, etc to try to figure out what's going on.

[gracie11facie]

It depends on what happens unfortunately. My characters never raised alarm because they killed anything they encountered and didn't let any get away. They didn't even go on the roof, and the goblins on patrol outside were gathered in the back, I think torturing a bird?
In any case,no big enemy knew my PCs were coming until they bust the door down, simply because they can't be bothered to pay attention/the sounds of crashing wood and battle is a sound they are used to, so barring a verbal warning from an escaped goblin they will not realize they are being attacked.

[Shisumo]

Honestly, more than 24 hours later, only Orik, Nualia, and Bruthazamus stand any realistic chance of still being on alert. What stands likely to be the biggest threat to a smooth assault is the goblin dogs - they have scent and some of them will almost certainly be awake, no matter what time of day or night.

[Orik_Vancaskerkin]

And really, I don't even want to be here any longer.

[Qakisst Vishtani]

Aren't goblins nocturnal? They just might send a patrol after a day back out into the brambles right as the players are getting ready to cross the bridge.

And more goblins from other tribes might be arriving. Wouldn't want to be caught in the middle of the bramble when both of those are happening.