
Doug's Workshop |
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By the 14th Amendment (section 4), the US cannot default on its debts. The goverment would have to operate within its means, which means about 10% of the current spending would have to be cut to pay debt payments.
So there is no chance of default, unless you listen to the political class who want to rile up the ignorant, or to the media, who never question things too deeply because thinking is hard.

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1 person marked this as a favorite. |
By the 14th Amendment (section 4), the US cannot default on its debts. The goverment would have to operate within its means, which means about 10% of the current spending would have to be cut to pay debt payments.
So there is no chance of default, unless you listen to the political class who want to rile up the ignorant, or to the media, who never question things too deeply because thinking is hard.
That's not what that section says or means at all. You should stop listening to who ever told you it does.

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Private individuals and enterprises are what's important, not special interests and bureaucrats. Let the government starve, atrophy, and be seen for what it really is.
It terrifies me that there are people out there who believe that fevered libertarian opium dream.
If you don't like having a government you should relocate to the libertarian paradise of Somalia.

Doug's Workshop |

Section 4. The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned.
Yes, that is what it says. The debts are valid, they will be paid. Before other stuff.

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Section 4. The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned.
Yes, that is what it says. The debts are valid, they will be paid. Before other stuff.
No, it means that debts can't be canceled and that the USA wouldn't pay debts incurred by the CSA.
It says nothing about making interest payments.
None of which matters though, because if the debt ceiling isn't raised US debt value will crash because the market will panic and the world economy will be screwed.
I have to wonder if Cruiz et al are shorting treasuries.

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I love the "go to extreme other end" stuff.
Want limited gov't? Go live in Somalia!
~makes as much sense as~
Want the gov't to provide essential services? Go live in 70's Soviet Russia!
lolwut?
I love the intellectually dishonest characterization of "government should shrivel up and die" as "limited government".
There's no straw man there. He said he wants a weak, almost non existent government. Just like Somalia.
The 'leftist' version that referenced the USSR would be someone wanting to live in a totalitarian regime where everything was owned by the state for the enrichment of true party elite.

Comrade Anklebiter |

Want the gov't to provide essential services? Go live in 70's Soviet Russia!
Jobs, health care and this guy?
Yes, please!
Vive le Galt!

Kahn Zordlon |

Kahn Zordlon wrote:Private individuals and enterprises are what's important, not special interests and bureaucrats. Let the government starve, atrophy, and be seen for what it really is.It terrifies me that there are people out there who believe that fevered libertarian opium dream.
If you don't like having a government you should relocate to the libertarian paradise of Somalia.
Fair enough, let's look at somolia. Before it was anarchy, there was totaliarian regime, before that it was bombed and conquered by The Government of Britain. Since the civil war there have been economic growth that was higher than before. It's not looking at somolia compared to the US, it's looking at somolia compared to the alternatives for somolia.

bugleyman |
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Unless you're trying to improve your health. Then, you need to put down the double-quarter-pounder with cheese and not order the extra large milkshake to go.
According to Google, starve means "suffer severely or die from hunger."
Improving one's diet and starving are not the same thing. They don't carry the same connotations. Likewise, there is a difference between saying the government needs to cut back and the government needs to starve. Almost anyone would agree with the former, but few with the latter.
How about this:
If you don't mean starve, don't say starve. It's confusing.
If you DO mean starve (or "drown in a bathtub"), then own the crazy.

Doug's Workshop |

I'm okay with giving the government an emergency gastric bypass procedure. Does that make you feel better?
Own the crazy? Like the $17 trillion in debt? And the $90+ trillion in unfunded liabilities? Like the ACA websites that keep crashing? Or the fact that "if you like your insurance you can keep your insurance" apparently means "your insurance is cancelled and replaced by something with a higher deductible and double the rate you were paying"?
Because what you call "crazy" I call "said it two years ago."

bugleyman |

I'm okay with giving the government an emergency gastric bypass procedure. Does that make you feel better?
It makes me feel less like I'm talking to an anarchist. :)
I think we agree that the government needs to spend less. I suspect we disagree about who should bear the brunt of those cuts. For example, I don't think cutting things like SNAP is good policy.
Own the crazy? Like the $17 trillion in debt? And the $90+ trillion in unfunded liabilities? Like the ACA websites that keep crashing? Or the fact that "if you like your insurance you can keep your insurance" apparently means "your insurance is cancelled and replaced by something with a higher deductible and double the rate you were paying"?
Because what you call "crazy" I call "said it two years ago."
No, crazy like not paying our bills.
Congress can keep fighting over the government shutdown and the sequester if they must, but simply not paying the bills isn't a sane option.

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2 people marked this as a favorite. |

SO what are the ramifications for you if this continues and no deal is achieved? Where do you go from here? What do you do? Do you become economic refugees and attempt to cross illegally into Canada?
Remember reading in history class about the Great Depression? Well, we won't have to look in books to see how bad it was back then, we'll just have to look outside.

Doug's Workshop |

The government has about 10% of its budget going to pay debt payments. All bills will be paid (unless the administration goes to court to say "No, we don't have to," which I really don't see happening (late night television would have a field day, and even the low information voter would start to question the administrations policies). All entitlements would be paid. Discretionary spending would be cut dramatically.
If the debt limit isn't raised, the government has to live within its means. Outgo = income, just like the rest of us lowly citizens, businesses, and nonprofits.
Would it hurt? Sure, there would be some pain. And every government program has its defenders. But someone has to be the grown-up in the room and say "No." Everybody would prefer it if "No" was said back in your 20s when exercise was easier and you didn't weigh 500lbs. But since self-control wasn't on the table then, you get the gastric bypass option.
One side of the debate says "how dare you deny me my cupcakes!" The other side says "You need to exercise or you're going in for gastric bypass."
What will happen? All parties will agree that gastric bypass is too painful, and they'll agree that a promise to not eat a cupcake at some point in the undefined future is just as good as actually dieting, with no intention of actually keeping that promise. And the patient will balloon to 800lbs and continue to be features on the "People of WalMart" website.

bugleyman |
1 person marked this as a favorite. |

Why is the talk always about cutting spending and not increasing revenue?
Or as Doug's Workshop might say, "Why don't you get off the couch and go for a run?"
Agreed. I just want us to balance the budget. As far as the how, I'd suggest both spending cuts and additional revenue. Despite what the TEA (Taxed Enough Already) party would have you believe, the United States is not anywhere near record tax revenue as a % of GDP. Pretty middle of the road, actually.
But it would also be naive to say that there is no waste in the federal government.

bugleyman |

One side of the debate says "how dare you deny me my cupcakes!" The other side says "You need to exercise or you're going in for gastric bypass.
Interesting point of view, but of course you're begging the question by casting the opposition as the lazy fat guy.
I'd put it this way: One side of the debate says we should prioritize keeping our promises and investing in the future over further accelerating a growing -- and already unprecedented in post-war America -- concentration of wealth.
It depends on whether you lend credence to Supply-side economics, which I (spoiler alert!) do not.

bugleyman |

I keep telling you that if you want a balanced budget, I have a plan for you!
I'm sure you do. But some cures are worse than the disease. If you refuse a bullet to the head as a cure to your cancer (which it most assuredly is), does that mean you love cancer? WHY DO YOU LOVE CANCER?! :P

bugleyman |
1 person marked this as a favorite. |

I think a large part of the problem is money in politics. Unless you're independently wealthy, you can't wage a successful national campaign without massive fundraising. Basically, if you're aren't corrupt when you start, you damn sure will be by the time you get elected. We've essentially set up a system that weeds out many of the best qualified among us.

thejeff |
The government has about 10% of its budget going to pay debt payments. All bills will be paid (unless the administration goes to court to say "No, we don't have to," which I really don't see happening (late night television would have a field day, and even the low information voter would start to question the administrations policies). All entitlements would be paid. Discretionary spending would be cut dramatically.
If the debt limit isn't raised, the government has to live within its means. Outgo = income, just like the rest of us lowly citizens, businesses, and nonprofits.
Would it hurt? Sure, there would be some pain. And every government program has its defenders. But someone has to be the grown-up in the room and say "No." Everybody would prefer it if "No" was said back in your 20s when exercise was easier and you didn't weigh 500lbs. But since self-control wasn't on the table then, you get the gastric bypass option.
If they'd managed to agree on a balanced budget and had some time to plan it's possible that it would work out that way. Since they haven't and they won't, that's not what will happen.
What will happen, assuming the debt ceiling is not raised and that none of the drastic steps to avoid it are taken (platinum coin, invoking the 14th to rule the debt ceiling unconstitutional, etc) is that on the 17th or thereabouts the Treasury will not be able to borrow more money, but bills will keep coming in. Those bills are essentially debt, whether they're repayments of borrowed money, money owed on contracts, money owed for goods or services already received, pensions (mentioned in the 14th), salaries or pretty much whatever else the Treasury needs to pay out. Those bills will be paid until the money runs out, then they'll stop.
As time goes on more revenue will come in and many of the bills will eventually be paid, but not only is the revenue lower than the bills, neither of them are smooth. For the near future revenue will be even lower relative to expenses than averages would suggest.
Meanwhile of course, at the first actual sign that the Treasury isn't going to pay something on time as it's supposed to, whether that's interest on the debt or any other bill, the markets panic, the economy collapses, revenues drop, even more bills don't get paid and we dive into a vicious spiral.

bugleyman |

If they'd managed to agree on a balanced budget and had some time to plan it's possible that it would work out that way. Since they haven't and they won't, that's not what will happen.
What will happen, assuming the debt ceiling is not raised and that none of the drastic steps to avoid it are taken (platinum coin, invoking the 14th to rule the debt ceiling unconstitutional, etc) is that on the 17th or thereabouts the Treasury will not be able to borrow more money, but bills will keep coming in. Those bills are essentially debt, whether they're repayments of borrowed money, money owed on contracts, money owed for goods or services already received, pensions (mentioned in the 14th), salaries or pretty much whatever else the Treasury needs to pay out. Those bills will be paid until the money runs out, then they'll stop.
As time goes on more revenue will come in and many of the bills will eventually be paid, but not only is the revenue lower than the bills, neither of them are smooth. For the near future revenue will be even lower relative to expenses than averages would suggest.Meanwhile of course, at the first actual sign that the Treasury isn't going to pay something on time as it's supposed to, whether that's interest on the debt or any other bill, the markets panic, the economy collapses, revenues drop, even more bills don't get paid and we dive into a vicious spiral.
Well...technically speaking, if the government collapses, the deficit is zero. :)
Personally, I'm putting the finishing touches on my bladed boomerang.

thejeff |
Rubber Ducky guy wrote:Why is the talk always about cutting spending and not increasing revenue?
Or as Doug's Workshop might say, "Why don't you get off the couch and go for a run?"
Agreed. I just want us to balance the budget. As far as the how, I'd suggest both spending cuts and additional revenue. Despite what the TEA (Taxed Enough Already) party would have you believe, the United States is not anywhere near record tax revenue as a % of GDP. Pretty middle of the road, actually.
But it would also be naive to say that there is no waste in the federal government.
It would be. It would also be at least as naive to say there's no waste in the private sector. We're human.
I actually oppose a balance budget, at least for the foreseeable future. If anything we need more spending. A lot less of it on the military and a lot more of it on actual productive stuff.
Basic macro economics really. The only good way to run a balanced budget is to run a high trade surplus, which we're not anywhere near having. Essentially the economy is public debt + private debt + trade surplus. Since we have a huge trade deficit, balancing the public budget just drives private debt up or shrinks the economy as a whole. Not a good thing.

thejeff |
thejeff wrote:Well...technically speaking, if the government collapses, the deficit is zero. :)If they'd managed to agree on a balanced budget and had some time to plan it's possible that it would work out that way. Since they haven't and they won't, that's not what will happen.
What will happen, assuming the debt ceiling is not raised and that none of the drastic steps to avoid it are taken (platinum coin, invoking the 14th to rule the debt ceiling unconstitutional, etc) is that on the 17th or thereabouts the Treasury will not be able to borrow more money, but bills will keep coming in. Those bills are essentially debt, whether they're repayments of borrowed money, money owed on contracts, money owed for goods or services already received, pensions (mentioned in the 14th), salaries or pretty much whatever else the Treasury needs to pay out. Those bills will be paid until the money runs out, then they'll stop.
As time goes on more revenue will come in and many of the bills will eventually be paid, but not only is the revenue lower than the bills, neither of them are smooth. For the near future revenue will be even lower...
Don't be so sure of that. How many 3rd world countries are still held accountable for debts run up by long ousted dictators?
Of course the difference is we owe people dollars. We can always pay them dollars. We can make as many of those as we want. Inflation is a problem of course, but one that's easier to deal with than outright default. Which would cause plenty of inflation anyway.

bugleyman |

Basic macro economics really. The only good way to run a balanced budget is to run a high trade surplus, which we're not anywhere near having. Essentially the economy is public debt + private debt + trade surplus. Since we have a huge trade deficit, balancing the public budget just drives private debt up or shrinks the economy as a whole. Not a good thing.
Hmmm...believe it or not, I've never heard it expressed that way. I'll have to give that some thought before I have anything to add.
I might be a while. ;)

thejeff |
thejeff wrote:Basic macro economics really. The only good way to run a balanced budget is to run a high trade surplus, which we're not anywhere near having. Essentially the economy is public debt + private debt + trade surplus. Since we have a huge trade deficit, balancing the public budget just drives private debt up or shrinks the economy as a whole. Not a good thing.Hmmm...believe it or not, I've never heard it expressed that way. I'll have to give that some thought before I have anything to add.
I might be a while. ;)
I don't think I explained it well. I'm not a economist and it's obviously more complicated than that.
And I can never find a good reference when I want one.

Curious |
The government has about 10% of its budget going to pay debt payments. All bills will be paid (unless the administration goes to court to say "No, we don't have to," which I really don't see happening (late night television would have a field day, and even the low information voter would start to question the administrations policies). All entitlements would be paid. Discretionary spending would be cut dramatically.
A few things to keep in mind.
Since Congress has not passed a budget or a CR then the only way this could happen is if Obama assumes the power of the purse. (I am sure he can come up with a speech explaining why Congress has left him no choice in matter) So the Obama administration will by and large be allowed to unilaterally write the federal budget until such time has Congress actually passes a spending bill or a CR. Do you really want that amount of power in one set of hands?Federal government has contracts that are funded by discretionary spending. If those contracts are not paid on a timely manner then under the Prompt Pay Act the federal government must pay a penalty which will be paid with your tax dollars. So in the short run the default will effectively raise government spending because now you are paying for both the contracted service and the penalty late payment amount.

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Section 4. The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned.
Yes, that is what it says. The debts are valid, they will be paid. Before other stuff.
'...payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion...'
Eww! That provides for a police state all the way up to and including their retirement. What about the rest of you?

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This country is like an addict -addicted to spending money it doesn't have to pay for more people's stuff. Sooner or later, we will come to the point where the country OD's into bankruptcy -which will finally force us to go cold turkey and live within our means. The downside is that this may usher in a period of social disorganization and chaos from which we can't recover. Just look to the Soviet Union, a mighty empire which splintered due to economic causes. Nations often fall from within. Our politicians, both Democrats and Republicans, can't compromise, nor can they bring excessive government spending under control. The national debt has almost doubled since Obama took office, and only shows signs of a greater increase. And so, like lemmings, the nation marches to its fate.

Scott Betts |
12 people marked this as a favorite. |

Private individuals and enterprises are what's important, not special interests and bureaucrats. Let the government starve, atrophy, and be seen for what it really is.
I love conservatives.
"Government sucks! Elect us!"
"Thanks for electing us! We're going to sabotage the government now!"
"Hey, look, we sabotaged the government, completing our own self-fulfilling prophecy! We were right! You should elect us again, because we were right!"
When a group of people tell you government sucks, encourages you to make them the government, and then do everything in their power to suck as hard as they possibly can, they're not smart or effective. They're just dicks.

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bugleyman wrote:thejeff wrote:Basic macro economics really. The only good way to run a balanced budget is to run a high trade surplus, which we're not anywhere near having. Essentially the economy is public debt + private debt + trade surplus. Since we have a huge trade deficit, balancing the public budget just drives private debt up or shrinks the economy as a whole. Not a good thing.Hmmm...believe it or not, I've never heard it expressed that way. I'll have to give that some thought before I have anything to add.
I might be a while. ;)
I don't think I explained it well. I'm not a economist and it's obviously more complicated than that.
And I can never find a good reference when I want one.

Scott Betts |

I'm okay with giving the government an emergency gastric bypass procedure. Does that make you feel better?
Own the crazy? Like the $17 trillion in debt? And the $90+ trillion in unfunded liabilities? Like the ACA websites that keep crashing? Or the fact that "if you like your insurance you can keep your insurance" apparently means "your insurance is cancelled and replaced by something with a higher deductible and double the rate you were paying"?
Another example of someone opposed to the ACA because they're absolutely terrified that it will be good for the country.

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Kahn Zordlon wrote:Private individuals and enterprises are what's important, not special interests and bureaucrats. Let the government starve, atrophy, and be seen for what it really is.I love conservatives.
"Government sucks! Elect us!"
"Thanks for electing us! We're going to sabotage the government now!"
"Hey, look, we sabotaged the government, completing our own self-fulfilling prophecy! We were right! You should elect us again, because we were right!"
When a group of people tell you government sucks, encourages you to make them the government, and then do everything in their power to suck as hard as they possibly can, they're not smart or effective. They're just dicks.
Would you be interested in a government that requires you to represent yourself now?