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After a lot of back and forth, (and not a little searching through these forums for pre-made answers) I thought I wold share my ideas for figuring out city populations using the kingmaker rules that made sense to me. Of course, actual numbers doesn't mean anything as far as population is concerned, but the standard 250 per city block didn't seem to work for my campaign. In addition, I wanted a way to have the cities in the PC's burgeoning kingdom grow a little more naturally in size.
During the preparing phase a new city starts with a population based on what kind of hex it is started in. Cities started in Plains hexes begin as Villages with 75 residents. Forest and Hill hexes start as Hamlets with a population of 30 people. Mountain and Swamp settlements start as a Thorpe with 15 people. Each month new people are added to a settlements population based on the city improvements that are built, (After all, a settlement with a castle and city walls will draw more people to live there for the increased protection those structures offer). Different city structures provide a different bonus to the 'Population Growth Modifier' which is then modified by the Kingdom's Promotion level and then still further by city special Qualities (for example, a city with the 'Insular' Quality has a severe reduction in growth rate, and a city with the 'Plagued' disadvantage would be hard pressed to grow at all.)
This Population growth modifier is then translated into a 'd6 +' variable which is rolled every month and added to the city's total population. At the same time, a cities total population is defined by what kind of housing it has. Houses, castles, shops, tenements, etc all have a 'Maximum Population modifier' which defines how large a population can grow without issues. If a city reaches this maximum number then the PC's can either build more housing, or their kingdom will gain unrest due to over-crowding.
The system seems to be working very well so far, although I am still tinkering a bit. I may add taxation level and unrest as negative modifiers to the Population Growth Mod (which makes sense) and perhaps tweak the actual numbers a bit. I would appreciate any thoughts or Questions though.
Interesting - dotting for latter insights as they dawn on me.
I had a similar idea, except it's a percentage modifier instead of a flat d6 + bonus increase. The percent growth is set by the Promotions edict, and modified by the Taxation (negative, unless there's none, in which case it's +.1%), and Festivals (all bonuses, unless there's none, in which case there's a penalty.) Unrest also applies a penalty. A negative modifier means people *leave* the kingdom. This growth rate is a kingdom stat in my game, although it is applied to Rural areas and each City individually (which creates slightly larger urban populations than the more spread out rural areas).
I like the idea of having city structures affect that for individual cities, too.
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I've been running 250 people per completed block in each district. Each of the four squares in each block adds 50 people to the population until the block is completed. I also add and additional 2d10+10 people per road, farm, or any other hex improvement.
Ex: A Hex contains a Mine, a Farm, an Apiary, and a Road. It hosts a population of 8d10+40. This isn't enough to require a new district be dedicated to housing or other things of that order while maintaining realism in that SOMEONE has to be maintaining these things.
The numbers can skyrocket quickly though if you annex the Kobolds, or other native populations though, so be prepared to retrofit some existing locations to fit the population. Houses are a must!
I actually went through a similar thought process recently. I just went with the very simple "Hexes have 250 population, blocks have 50". No randomness, not dependent on what you build, but a much better scale than the default. Building a smith means building a smith, not a district of smiths.
I also added some light rules to make sure my players had enough housing for everyone (each block that isn't housing needs one unit of housing, houses provide 2, tenements provide 3). I'm not sure if they're working out yet or not.
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The % growth as problems at the early stages, where your population is low.
My solution was to say that the initial BP given out in the Kingmaker adventures included 500 initial setters sponsored by the Sword Lords.
To justify the high growth rate my group is using the "acre of land and 1 mule" approach, i.e. part of the BP expenditure when building new structures or improving land is spent in sponsoring new immigrants.
@Bobson: how I read it building a smith mean you are building one or more smiths and several houses in that block, not only buildings dedicated to metalworking.