Chief Technical Officer
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Setting aside the edition fears for a moment, do you think the way people buy rpg products is changing? In addition, do you think 4e will stave off this degredation of retailer confidence or is the whole market shifting more towards direct/online sales?
I think the way that people *learn* about RPG products is changing. 15 years ago, manufacturers educated distributors about new products, and distributors educated retailers, and retailers—the good ones anyway—educated customers. About the only direct customer education you could *do* directly was place an ad in Dragon magazine.
I think that the success of Magic: The Gathering and Pokémon, though, created new types of retailers with different needs, and distributors moved less from an "informing-and-educating" role to that of an order taker. As a publisher, this means that, unless you have one of the products that people already know they want to order, educating retailers and customers is a big issue. Fortunately, just as manufacturers were developing that need, the internet grew to provide a way to do that for an ever-increasing number of potential customers.
This makes life a bit easier for retailers in that their customers come in to the store pre-informed, but it also creates a challenge for them in that their customer can now have a direct relationship with the publisher, and may choose to purchase directly. The smart retailers, then, realize that they have to provide a value to their customers that the publisher can't; they need to engage customers with demos, organized play, and other things that don't work so well over the internet.
So, yes, the way people buy RPG products is changing, and that means that retailers who can't figure out how to bring something to the table will have a tough time. But the smart ones will continue to thrive.
As for 4E, I'm sure that—whether people love it or hate it—Wizards is going to sell truckloads of the core books, and that might provide a spark for a lot of retailers. If 4E does everything Wizards wants it to do, it could certainly reinvigorate the hobby. But if 4E isn't well-received, I think many of those retailers will blame the hobby as a whole, and that could be a problem.
For Paizo, I think it's important that we ensure we can continue to succeed even if the retailers collapse completely, which is why we're doing our best to ensure that if you don't have a good local retailer, we can take up that slack.
I'll admit, I am something of a "chicken little" when it comes to 4th Edition.
But if Vic is correct about the following (and I assume he speaks with some authority on the matter):
The smart retailers, then, realize that they have to provide a value to their customers that the publisher can't; they need to engage customers with demos, organized play, and other things that don't work so well over the internet.
Doesn't that mean the new Digital Initiative could cripple retailers, even if it is unintentional?
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Edit: Maybe you do have reason to be concerned about the moral's clause...
(WotC claims they will not use the moral's clause unless the material is truly over the top vile. I'm thinking something like the Complete Child Pornographer's Handbook.)
Heh. Wasn't there a bit of a stink with Book of Erotic Fantasy. IIRC, it's not even able to call itself OGL because of it's morally-depraved content. Rather it calls itself "Compliant with OGL." (An interesting note, I have the book and find it a useful resource. Hardly morally-depraved IMO.)
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Heh. Wasn't there a bit of a stink with Book of Erotic Fantasy. IIRC, it's not even able to call itself OGL because of it's morally-depraved content. Rather it calls itself "Compliant with OGL." (An interesting note, I have the book and find it a useful resource. Hardly morally-depraved IMO.)Edit: Maybe you do have reason to be concerned about the moral's clause...
(WotC claims they will not use the moral's clause unless the material is truly over the top vile. I'm thinking something like the Complete Child Pornographer's Handbook.)
Actually the book is OGL but it was not allowed to carry the d20 imprint. I believe the original morals clause for the d20 STL was created because of this book. The current OGL has no such clause by the way and never can.
The current OGL has no such clause by the way and never can.
Not true. WotC could release an OGL 2.0 and put in a morals clause in there, but it would be completely effectiveless since someone could use stuff on released in OGL 2.0 with OGL 1.0A.
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I spoke with our local game store about the GSL vs OGL and some of the complaints and worries I have seen about restrictions to 3rd party companies.
The store said they see little difference it will make in the market. As far as they are concerned the 3rd party market is so small and inconsequential to their profit line that all the 3rd party companies could go belly up and it would make no difference.
They said that at least 95+% of all RPG sales are strictly WOTC products. I mentioned GURPS as an alternative and he said no one plays it. Another clerk laughed when I said I hated d20, and said she has never played any other system and won't because it so perfect.
In essence they perceive the OGL as inconsequential at all to D&D and the industry.
So, are we just part of the less than 5% of the market interested in anything other WOTC? Has WOTC so completely dominated the industry that all other games systems are irrelevant? If it doesn't have the WOTC and D&D logos is it doomed to obscurity and failure?
If it doesn't have the WOTC and D&D logos is it doomed to obscurity and failure?
That really depends on your definition of Failure. Most of the alternative systems to D&D would appear to be successes. (True20, Iron Heroes, maybe even Monte's Arcana line [I haven't paid attention to the success]) Not WotC level, but levels that allow comfortable sustainability.
Now, what happens in a few months remains to be seen...
I spoke with our local game store about the GSL vs OGL and some of the complaints and worries I have seen about restrictions to 3rd party companies.
The store said they see little difference it will make in the market. As far as they are concerned the 3rd party market is so small and inconsequential to their profit line that all the 3rd party companies could go belly up and it would make no difference.
They said that at least 95+% of all RPG sales are strictly WOTC products. I mentioned GURPS as an alternative and he said no one plays it. Another clerk laughed when I said I hated d20, and said she has never played any other system and won't because it so perfect.
In essence they perceive the OGL as inconsequential at all to D&D and the industry.
So, are we just part of the less than 5% of the market interested in anything other WOTC? Has WOTC so completely dominated the industry that all other games systems are irrelevant? If it doesn't have the WOTC and D&D logos is it doomed to obscurity and failure?
If this is accurate, then I guess 4th edition better succeed or the industry is doomed... if this is accurate
If this is accurate, then I guess 4th edition better succeed or the industry is doomed... if this is accurateI spoke with our local game store about the GSL vs OGL and some of the complaints and worries I have seen about restrictions to 3rd party companies.
The store said they see little difference it will make in the market. As far as they are concerned the 3rd party market is so small and inconsequential to their profit line that all the 3rd party companies could go belly up and it would make no difference.
They said that at least 95+% of all RPG sales are strictly WOTC products. I mentioned GURPS as an alternative and he said no one plays it. Another clerk laughed when I said I hated d20, and said she has never played any other system and won't because it so perfect.
In essence they perceive the OGL as inconsequential at all to D&D and the industry.
So, are we just part of the less than 5% of the market interested in anything other WOTC? Has WOTC so completely dominated the industry that all other games systems are irrelevant? If it doesn't have the WOTC and D&D logos is it doomed to obscurity and failure?
Saying the industry is doomed is probably not accurate. However, if 4e is an actual failure (as opposed to a marginal or modest success that doesn't emulate the 3.0 boom; which I believe will be the case), it's likely PnP RPGs will go back to being a niche product for a couple years, until "the next big thing." The good news for the industry is that the Internet makes niche products more viable to sell and there are enough third party publishers that can/do produce 3.x OGL and/or non-d20 material to sustain the existance of a RPG market for a long period, although there will be a drop in overall sales as the market contracts. I'm not saying it will be pretty, but as long as there is a demand for PnP RPGs, someone will produce a product to meet that demand.
Last time I checked WotC RPG sales represented about 50% of RPG sales. (figure taken from Game Trade Magazine). The other 50% was White Wolf, Palladium, Troll Lord Games, Steve Jackson Games, etc.
While obviously the best selling RPG, it is still shy of being the RPG market.
EDIT:Oops, did I say that figure came from Game Trade Magazine? I meant Comic & Game Retailer magazine. Sorry =/
Hiya.
In all honesty, I'm kinda hoping everything tanks; the whole messed up 'industry'. I say that simply because I think it's been past the point of "saving" since early after 3e was released (maybe, 2001 or so).
Back before there was an 'industry' (1e/2e days), gamers wrote adventures, cleaned them up through an editor, put some art into it, and sold it. Why did they sell it? Not to get rich or build a 'successful company', that's for damn sure. They published them because they loved creating games and wanted to share their creations. That is what I remember the most about the "olden days of 1e". When I picked up a module written by Gary Gygax, I knew what to expect. When I picked up a module written by Leonard Lokafka, I knew what to expect. Same with all the other writers. This carried over into other games (Call of Cthulhu, Star Frontiers, Runequest, Warhammer Fantasy Role-Play, etc.); certain "styles of choice" could be seen based on the company and the writer. I *knew* that what I was paying for had been written for, and played by, the writers own, personal RPG group of friends...not some total stranger calling himself a 'playtester'.
Than along came Lorain Williams. I'm not going to get into the details, but this was the beginning of the end. She looked at her audience...million or so people...and looked at TSR's bottom line and said "Ok, I don't get it. According to all the laws of business I've read about, we should be making millions and millions!" ...and, a short time later, we get endless crap coming out of TSR. Handbooks upon handbooks, whole game systems that were hyped to no end, then quickly dropped once they had made 'x' amount of money they were supposed to (all according to the numbers they plugged into their business formulas). Long story short: making RPG's became an 'industry' and the standard rules of supply/demand and 'target audience' came into play.
So, now we have 4e. How does 4e stack up to the beginnings of 1e in terms of people writing it? What about the very *reason* for trying to put it out for sale? Well, IMHO, it seems to me that the so-called 'writers' for 4e are NOT writing a RPG that they want or need...they are writing what they think 'the target audience' wants. I get the impression they really don't care one way or another about what they are doing; they're getting a paycheck, and at the end of the week they call their friends over for their weekly session of [insert any other game other than 4e]. Of course, WotC is trying to make money; this is fine. However, I would posit that the 'average gamer' is *most definitely NOT* the 'average consumer'. Don't believe me? Go to a trade show. Now go to a game convention. Do you see a difference in the type of people wandering about? I can see the retailers who are new to the RPG'er..."What?!? You sold HOW MANY of those plush mini-cthulhu things? I barely broke even on my themed teddy-bears! Who *are* these people?!?" ;) The "industry" has been treating everyone like they are the trade-show going people. This has, IMHO, resulted in, shall we say, "less intellectually stimulated people" getting kinda/sorta/semi-ish into RPGs for a few months, then leaving it for the latest hyped up consumer product to offer them "Cool FUN!" (hmmm...doesn't that seem familiar? ;) ). This in turn results in the spread sheet back at WotC headquarters showing a lot of unpredictability. So, their answer? Flood the market with so much crap content, that it evens out the rough spots (re: 3e marketing scheme).
Anyway, I'm rambling. The bottom line is this: The 'industry' needs a HUGE, GARGANTUAN, WOLD-SPANNING shakeup. That basically means that 4e/D&D needs to tank. We need to hit the reset button, people. Lets get companies and writers who want to write stuff that they use in their own games. Lets get them to say "I write RPG stuff because I want to and it helps out with the bills from time to time." I seriously don't think there should even be a thing such as a 'full time RPG writer' who gets all his income from writing RPG stuff. And if there ever is such a person, it should be because his/her stuff is *that good*...not because it's been hyped to hell and back and shoved down everyones throat as something every RPG'er simply must have of their game will implode.
And yes, I'm as grognarian as they come. I still play 1e and Basic D&D...along with Star Frontiers, Gamma World (2nd or 3rd), Marvel Super-Heroes Advanced, Top Secret, Call of Cthulhu, Warhammer FRP (1st edition), etc. The only real 'new' games I bought into was Hackmaster, HARP and two books for HERO 5th Edition. Grognardian. That's me, and proud of it.
...damn kids and their new-fangled designs... (resumes rocking back and forth on his wooden rocking-chair while sipping a cold sarsaparilla)...
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The current OGL has no such clause by the way and never can.Not true. WotC could release an OGL 2.0 and put in a morals clause in there, but it would be completely effectiveless since someone could use stuff on released in OGL 2.0 with OGL 1.0A.
Well, yes. What I meant by that is exactly what you said. Sure they can do it but it would be silly to do so because publishers can ignore that.
So of course, as owners of the license, Wizards can release whatever they want but it would quite pointless if those changes unduly restricted the actions of publishers. Publishers will simply use an older version of the license. A right given them by :
9. Updating the License: Wizards or its designated Agents may publish updated versions of this License. You may use any authorized version of this License to copy, modify and distribute any Open Game Content originally distributed under any version of this License.
That was what I meant by "never can".
I'm sorry, I should have been more clear about what I was saying.
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Setting aside the edition fears for a moment, do you think the way people buy rpg products is changing? In addition, do you think 4e will stave off this degredation of retailer confidence or is the whole market shifting more towards direct/online sales?I think the way that people *learn* about RPG products is changing. 15 years ago, manufacturers educated distributors about new products, and distributors educated retailers, and retailers—the good ones anyway—educated customers. About the only direct customer education you could *do* directly was place an ad in Dragon magazine.
I think that the success of Magic: The Gathering and Pokémon, though, created new types of retailers with different needs, and distributors moved less from an "informing-and-educating" role to that of an order taker. As a publisher, this means that, unless you have one of the products that people already know they want to order, educating retailers and customers is a big issue. Fortunately, just as manufacturers were developing that need, the internet grew to provide a way to do that for an ever-increasing number of potential customers.
This makes life a bit easier for retailers in that their customers come in to the store pre-informed, but it also creates a challenge for them in that their customer can now have a direct relationship with the publisher, and may choose to purchase directly. The smart retailers, then, realize that they have to provide a value to their customers that the publisher can't; they need to engage customers with demos, organized play, and other things that don't work so well over the internet.
So, yes, the way people buy RPG products is changing, and that means that retailers who can't figure out how to bring something to the table will have a tough time. But the smart ones will continue to thrive.
As for 4E, I'm sure that—whether people love it or hate it—Wizards is going to sell truckloads of the core books, and that might provide a spark for a lot of retailers....
Thank you Vic for that very interesting insight. I really appreciate you took the time to express your views and give some inside information about the nature of the industry right now. It is this kind of discussion that keeps me coming back to Paizo as a customer and as a poster on these boards.
Doesn't that mean the new Digital Initiative could cripple retailers, even if it is unintentional?
My suggestion is that retailers should diversify their business. A coffee shop/internet cafe/gaming story might be a better option. Have the coffe shop and internet cafe part out front, along with the gaming products. Have tables in the back for gaming. Allow access to the wireless internet in the back as well. Thus gamers could play, get access to the internet and purchase food and drinks (where the real money would probably be made).
In essence they perceive the OGL as inconsequential at all to D&D and the industry.
Well their preception is wrong. 3rd party companies keep WotC alive. Look at all the companies in on the 4E confrence phone call on Jan 7 Link
Adamant Entertainment
EN Publishing
Expeditious Retreat Press
Fantasy Flight Games
Goodman Games
Green Ronin Publishing
Mongoose Publishing
Necromancer Games
Paizo Publishing
Paradigm Concepts
Privateer Press
Of these, Green Ronin and Mongoose have all but said they're not interested, Paradigm's product line has been moving away from d20 and towards OGL only with standalong games like spycraft and witchhunter, and Adamant makes modern products, so ignore them. Of the remaining, EN Publishing, XRP, Goodman, Necro, Paizo and Privateer make Adventures and DM Tools and stuff for making your own campaign setting more believable. I don't know what FFG does anymore and a quick strip to their website didn't help.
3rd party companies don't sell much product compared to wotc, but they sell to the most important customers: DMs. This is a segment largely ignored by WotC. XRP makes the Magical Midevil supplements; WotC doesn't put out products to help develop your own campaign setting. They want you to buy FRCS or EbCS or whatever they're going to put out. Yes, a few products may help develop the more exotic aspects, like Planes, alternate magic systems, and so on, but they don't put out products that talk about the important of commerce or how to model a believable world's creation.
WotC may put out some adventures but they (thus far) haven't really gone head to head with Paizo or Goodman as far as quality or regularity. Even some of their hardback mega-adventures sucked.
Necromancer aims for a particular flavor that WotC openly ignores. Infact Clark/Orcus has said on more then one occasion that people have written him and said that they didn't start playing 3.x because of anything that WotC (or sometimes even swore off D&D because of what WotC) did but picked it up again because of the products that Necro put out.
FLGSs don't want to carry 3rd party products because they don't sell as well as WotC products. This is true. They make player oriented products. They put out books loaded with PrCs, feats, new classes, new races, etc that allow players greater options. If a DM wants to run Dreamscarred's setting 3rd dawn, how many players are going to run out and buy Expanded Psionics? Probably all of them. So that'll probably ammount to 1 CS book sold and 5 Expanded Psionics sold. Which would a FLGS carry if they're only going to carry one of these products?
In short: WotC is the McDonalds of the industry. They make a product that's biggest adventages are "Name Recognition" and "Distribution Capabilities".
I guess they don't believe in the "Skaff Effect" so much know. Wonder what changed their minds?Interestingly enough, Skaff Elias is in my weekly D&D game. I'll have to ask him what he thinks of the new GSL license and how that affects the Skaff Effect. :)
-Lisa
Hey Lisa, I was wondering if you had asked Skaff Elias about this yet? Or did he comment to you on it and ask you to not repeat anything he said publicly?
My suggestion is that retailers should diversify their business. A coffee shop/internet cafe/gaming story might be a better option. Have the coffe shop and internet cafe part out front, along with the gaming products. Have tables in the back for gaming. Allow access to the wireless internet in the back as well. Thus gamers could play, get access to the internet and purchase food and drinks (where the real money would probably be made).
Sounds good in theory, but I think spatial constraints will be a major issue:
You'll need space for the computers, for the tables where people can drink their coffee and eat their cake. Then you'll need space for the merchandise, and more for the tables.
I think that would limit the range of products you can offer, and most would probably go with the stuff that sells most, i.e. trading cards and related stuff, and maybe one or two major RPGs (and in the case of D&D, with little to no 3rd-party stuff.)
You'll need space for the computers, for the tables where people can drink their coffee and eat their cake. Then you'll need space for the merchandise, and more for the tables.
This kind of setup would work well with a two-story scenario - computers and tables upstairs, cafe downstairs. And computers don't take up as much space as they used to. :)
Saying the industry is doomed is probably not accurate. However, if 4e is an actual failure (as opposed to a marginal or modest success that doesn't emulate the 3.0 boom; which I believe will be the case), it's likely PnP RPGs will go back to being a niche product for a couple years, until "the next big thing." The good news for the industry is that the Internet makes niche products more viable to sell and there are enough third party publishers that can/do produce 3.x OGL and/or non-d20 material to sustain the existance of a RPG market for a long period, although there will be a drop in overall sales as the market contracts. I'm not saying it will be pretty, but as long as there is a demand for PnP RPGs, someone will produce a product to meet that demand.If this is accurate, then I guess 4th edition better succeed or the industry is doomed... if this is accurateI spoke with our local game store about the GSL vs OGL and some of the complaints and worries I have seen about restrictions to 3rd party companies.
The store said they see little difference it will make in the market. As far as they are concerned the 3rd party market is so small and inconsequential to their profit line that all the 3rd party companies could go belly up and it would make no difference.
They said that at least 95+% of all RPG sales are strictly WOTC products. I mentioned GURPS as an alternative and he said no one plays it. Another clerk laughed when I said I hated d20, and said she has never played any other system and won't because it so perfect.
In essence they perceive the OGL as inconsequential at all to D&D and the industry.
So, are we just part of the less than 5% of the market interested in anything other WOTC? Has WOTC so completely dominated the industry that all other games systems are irrelevant? If it doesn't have the WOTC and D&D logos is it doomed to obscurity and failure?
I don't think it is necessarily doomed, though I do think if 4th tanks then the industry will drop away to a niche market like it was in the early 80's (and late 80's and early 90's). My comment above however had to do, mostly, with the idea that D&D (and WotC products) made up 95% of the market. It's been indicated that it is more along the lines of about 50% (which makes more sense).
I am curious as to what part of the world Dragonchess is located. My local FLGS certainly sales primarily D&D and WotC products, but I know most of their income comes from Magic (which is of course WotC), World of Warcraft CCG and Warmachine/Hordes. It's the gaming books themselves that are the fringe, and it may be that there are several box stores (Hastings... and nominally Borders) that compete directly with the FLGS for book sales. Though he is willing to order anything available through his distributor's and oft times offers a discount if you pay in advance. I'd wager most of his RPG book orders are for third party products, and for other systems entirely. Which sounds dismal, but he gets more orders for products than he gets new products in simply because there's such a glut of WotC (D&D) products on his shelf that it is easier to cater to the buyer through special orders.
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It will be interesting to see how 4E pans out. I remember the flood of D20 products we saw after 3E first hit the shelves. I bought some of it, the Creature Collection by White Wolf being the first. I know many people bought that particular book and I know others spent hundreds of dollars buying everything with a D20 logo on it.
I remember everyone was trying to fill in the voids in Wizard's publishing schedule buy offering us books they thought we need. From 10 bigillion books about Elves to the 5 books about dwarves. *snickers* It didn't matter if the books were good or bad, they got published.
In the end 90% (or more) of it was crap and only a few D20 publishers survived to see 3.5. I think more then one FLGS got stung by this because in the end, we the gamers stopped buying a lot of the D20 stuff because we started to realize what most of it was, crap.
How many swashbuckler type prestige classes does one need after all?
My fear about 4E is we'll see the same D20 bumble but it'll pop even sooner because of the limitations the GSL will likely enforce to keep people buying the $35 yearly PHB/DMG/MM hardcovers Wizards plans. The publishers we've come to expect to put out excellent options will be limited to what they can do and thus their product while good, will ultimately be seen as a waste of money by reasonable spenders and like all the D20 stuff collecting dust in many stores right now, it just won't sell.
I am curious as to what part of the world Dragonchess is located. My local FLGS certainly sales primarily D&D and WotC products, but I know most of their income comes from Magic (which is of course WotC), World of Warcraft CCG and Warmachine/Hordes. It's the gaming books themselves that are the fringe, and it may be that there are several box stores (Hastings... and nominally Borders) that compete directly with the FLGS for book sales. Though he is willing to order anything available through his distributor's and oft times offers a discount if you pay in advance. I'd wager most of his RPG book orders are for third party products, and for other systems entirely. Which sounds dismal, but he gets more orders for products than he gets new products in simply because there's such a glut of WotC (D&D) products on his shelf that it is easier to cater to the buyer through special orders.
Currently, I live in England. This fall, I'll be moving somewhere else (I don't know where yet). The majority of my purchases over the last year have been in the Military Exchange store on base (to demonstrate a demand to the management), with most of the rest through Amazon (usually bundled with the sci-fi/fantasy novels I order through them). My selection there was limited to official WotC or licensed D&D materal and the only convenient FLGS is a Games Workshop establishment (which has no RPG section). After the announcement regarding the end of Dungeon and Dragon magazine as print products, I've been ordering most of my purchases online through Paizo (I consider the difference in what I pay, compared to Amazon, to be well spent making sure Paizo can continue to produce great adventures).
The majority of my purchases over the last year have been in the Military Exchange store on base (to demonstrate a demand to the management), with most of the rest through Amazon (usually bundled with the sci-fi/fantasy novels I order through them). My selection there was limited to official WotC or licensed D&D materal and the only convenient FLGS is a Games Workshop establishment (which has no RPG section).
Oh man. This sounds all too familiar (having lived on a military base and needing to rely upon the painfully small bookstore there for gaming materials).
And computers don't take up as much space as they used to. :)
I know, with smaller cases and flatscreens and all that. But the point is that you still need to sit in front of the thing. Humans haven't become any smaller in the last 40 years, even if computers have, so you need to calculate a certain amount of space per terminal, not only to fit the equipment in, but also to fit the customers in, and with a certain amount of personal space (If you can't move the mouse more than 3 inches without bumping you neighbour's keyboard, things are a bit too cramped for comfort).
I know, with smaller cases and flatscreens and all that. But the point is that you still need to sit in front of the thing. Humans haven't become any smaller in the last 40 years, even if computers have, so you need to calculate a certain amount of space per terminal, not only to fit the equipment in, but also to fit the customers in, and with a certain amount of personal space (If you can't move the mouse more than 3 inches without bumping you neighbour's keyboard, things are a bit too cramped for comfort).
A cubicle/booth setup would be easier, with privacy screens.
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Chief Technical Officer
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Last time I checked WotC RPG sales represented about 50% of RPG sales. (figure taken from Game Trade Magazine). The other 50% was White Wolf, Palladium, Troll Lord Games, Steve Jackson Games, etc.
While obviously the best selling RPG, it is still shy of being the RPG market.EDIT:Oops, did I say that figure came from Game Trade Magazine? I meant Comic & Game Retailer magazine. Sorry =/
I can assure you that the data in C&GR is nearly worthless. It was provided by a self-selected (non-representative and not statistically significant) subset of retailers, who each use their own methods to determine their breakdowns. It doesn't even attempt to include mass-market or direct sales. Paizo in particular has been underrepresented since day 1, with our sales of Dragon, Dungeon, and even our D&D hardcovers apparently being credited to Wizards.
Neither Wizards nor Paizo makes our own sales data public, so my own evidence is anecdotal, but I do have reason to believe that sales of Pathfinder have been comparable with some of Wizards' D&D books during the same time.
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I must admit this is a fascinating subject.
This is my take so far, kind of a synopsis if you will, and a few ideas of what may happen.
4E will be released under the GSL, preventing other publishers from creating new games that could compete with D&D, but allowing publishers to create materials that support D&D directly. This new license will contain language to allow WOTC to control "inappropriate" material, and may be revoked at some time if so warranted.
While 4E will be released under GSL, other publishers will continue to use the OGL to publish their games that "compete" with D&D. And while WOTC is very likely to remove access to SRD materials from their website and stop actively supporting it, that does not mean SRD material will go away. As soon as WOTC stops making the SRD available I would fully expect a publisher or two to print the SRD in book form, thereby keeping the OGL material alive.
Whether of not 4E is a "success" or not I see publishers thriving under the dual system. Each publisher can choose the best system for their particular needs. Should a publisher choose OGL rather than GSL and later decide that the GSL would be better, they can still change. WIthout seeing the GSL I would assume that freedom remains for publishers to go from GSL to OGL if 4E does not work out better.
So, to me it is all a win-win situation, because everyone gets a choice.
A tangent touched upon that is more concerning to me is the FLGS. My gaming party was discussing the prospects last night. The future of the game store is not in sales of RPGs, minis or such, simply because nearly all of it is less expensive online. I can buy nearly any book I want on eBay for about half price. For a store to thrive they must offer other services: a place to play, sponsored events, etc. But they don't actually make money on these things. The hope is that the other activities will make people want to buy from their store. But as books move from $20 to $30 to $40 and eventually to $50 or more the vast majority of consumers will begin looking for alternate, less expensive means of getting product. Paizo has already recognized the value of cheaper PDF versions of their products. As the younger generation, more used to using computers for reading matures, PDFs will play a bigger role in distributing material. Not now, maybe not ten years from now, but certainly within twenty years electronic distribution will be the norm. But during the next two decades FLGS will find it harder and harder to make a profit and a living. The FLGS is an endangered species.
I assume that the shrinking number of FLGS is nationwide. Our college town has gone from 3 stores to 1. That 1 store is teetering on the edge. They are ok now, but if things get worse, if more people buy online, they will not last long. This recession may be just the thing to start another wave of FLGS closings.
Please, oh please, someone tell me and explain to me, why I am wrong about FLGS and that they are in fact thriving and growing :) THAT is what I want to hear. :)
Please, oh please, someone tell me and explain to me, why I am wrong about FLGS and that they are in fact thriving and growing :) THAT is what I want to hear. :)
The secret is diversity. Just selling game materials won't cut it, except in the case of well-established stores in excellent markets with very loyal customer bases and good discounts.
My FLGS has thrived since 1976 by being a game store, comics store, bookstore (fantasy, SF and horror only), selling toys, t-shirts, replica weapons, figurines, and carrying used and out-of-print stuff from all of the above that you can't get on Amazon.
You need to be an All-Purpose Geek Store to survive in this climate.
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Chief Technical Officer
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So, to me it is all a win-win situation, because everyone gets a choice.
You're missing one thing here. If half the audience is playing 3.x, and half the audience is playing 4.x, that means that, regardless of which edition we choose, we'd sell half as many copies of our products as we do now. Which means smaller print runs. Which means higher prices. Which means more price resistance from customers. Which means fewer sales. Which means smaller print runs. Lather, rinse, repeat until we're out of business.
A 50/50 split is the *worst* possible thing that could happen, as far as I'm concerned.
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Since I'm quickly running out of Paizo products to buy, I'm thinking about demanding that my players start buying random things from you. I think that you're a little heavy on the DM side of things now. So, if you have any ideas for 'must haves' for players, you should publish them. Because then I'll have no excuse not to bully them into buying what will soon be their favorite gaming purchase *ever* (until I make them do it again next month).
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So, to me it is all a win-win situation, because everyone gets a choice.You're missing one thing here. If half the audience is playing 3.x, and half the audience is playing 4.x, that means that, regardless of which edition we choose, we'd sell half as many copies of our products as we do now. Which means smaller print runs. Which means higher prices. Which means more price resistance from customers. Which means fewer sales. Which means smaller print runs. Lather, rinse, repeat until we're out of business.
A 50/50 split is the *worst* possible thing that could happen, as far as I'm concerned.
well, damn, Vic, pour some acid on my rainbow why don't ya... and I was hoping things weren't going to be all crappy after all. Now it looks like doom and gloom all over again... *sigh* so is this going to be another 2nd Edition that results in the stagnation and decline of the industry?
If so, I do hope Paizo is seriously making plans to buy D&D from Hasbro. I have said it before and will say it again. The BEST thing for D&D is if Paizo were running it. Wow, imagine a union between Paizo and Necromancer and then they buy D&D. Yeah I LIKE that solution!
Come on Vic tell me that is the top secret long term plan!
I don't think Paizo has the millions that Hasbro would demand for the license. If I'm wrong, then that would be delightful! :)
A 50/50 split is the *worst* possible thing that could happen, as far as I'm concerned.
There seem to be quite a lot of people that claim they will "go where Paizo goes." So even though it seems like the "not switching editions" crowd is ahead about 60/40 in general, about 25% seem to be going where paizo goes, and therefore it would seem to favor staying 3.5.
Not that I'm biased at all.... ;)
There seem to be quite a lot of people that claim they will "go where Paizo goes." So even though it seems like the "not switching editions" crowd is ahead about 60/40 in general, about 25% seem to be going where paizo goes, and therefore it would seem to favor staying 3.5.
That's missing the impact of future customers. If someone starts playing D&D in 2009, they're going to start playing 4e. And there's always going to be a lot more people converting from 3.5 to 4e than converting back to 3.5 from 4e.
If all Paizo sells is 3.5 compatible, they're going to be catering to a necessarily shrinking market. And with that consideration, I think it takes more than a 60/40 vote to keep from switching.
That's missing the impact of future customers. If someone starts playing D&D in 2009, they're going to start playing 4e.
Are you sure about that?
My kids will start playing D&D in 2012. And they won't be playing 4E. :)
My point being, new players will mainly be brought in by current players - and will play the edition they are introduced to. Now, will most of them be 4E? Probably. But not all....
Also, how will completely new players take to a game as slow as D&D, when you can play MMORPGs at a fraction of the cost and zero prep time? Keep in mind there is a $105 (list price) barrier to entry to play 4E. With the OGL, there is a $0 barrier to entry since the online SRD for 3.5 is free.
But, on the whole, you are probably right - but not definitely.
Contributor
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Since I'm quickly running out of Paizo products to buy, I'm thinking about demanding that my players start buying random things from you. I think that you're a little heavy on the DM side of things now. So, if you have any ideas for 'must haves' for players, you should publish them. Because then I'll have no excuse not to bully them into buying what will soon be their favorite gaming purchase *ever* (until I make them do it again next month).
Your wish is eventually our command!
Your wish is eventually our command!
This sounds like a really shoddy spell system! ;P
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I don't think Paizo has the millions that Hasbro would demand for the license. If I'm wrong, then that would be delightful! :)
I am not sure how much the are worth and I doubt they would come out and say it anyway, that would be silly.
But how much did TSR sell D&D to WOTC for? How much did Hasbro pay for WOTC?
Besides, we're not talking about how much D&D is worth at the height of its popularity, we're talking about of much is it worth to Hasbro to be rid of a money sucking problem. ASSUMING 4E tanks, which it very well might not.
Come on Vic tell me that is the top secret long term plan!
"That's classified."
"What?"
"I'm sorry, but that data is classified. I could tell you, but then I'd have to kill you."
I couldn't resist. ;-)
My kids will start playing D&D in 2012. And they won't be playing 4E. :)
Yea, they'll probably be pestering you to play D&D 7E by that point. Dungeons and Dragonball Z.