The aristocrat nudges in closer and presses his quick drawn dagger into the flat-footed Orsin's kidney while the merrymakers press to get autographs and a quick chat in,
dagger: 1d20 + 15 ⇒ (16) + 15 = 31;damage: 1d4 + 4 ⇒ (4) + 4 = 8
plus 5 bleed damage. You take the an additional 5 bleed each round unless DC 15 heal check is made or cure remedy.
sneak attack: 5d6 ⇒ (4, 6, 4, 5, 2) = 21
Make a fortitude save DC 16 for paralysis. Then secondary effect, con damage: 1d2 ⇒ 2
"You have many important enemies."
Andrea, Daniel, Lucrezia can make perception checks to see if they see anything unusual happening around Orsin. I think Gerard is working his way to the roof.