Chris Evans 52's page

I really don't think you guys are understanding what has been said... And it seems like you are twisting and drawing the conversation places it doesn't need to go...

Anyways, I've decided this intro to Paizo/Pathfinder and it's community has been a little to sour for my tastes. I was able to return the books today, and tomorrow I'll try Half-Price Books to see how much I can get for the beginner box.

Goodbye, and enjoy your gaming :)

Dr_wu,

The fact that they are not uniform was mentioned, but if you look at the worst case scenario I posted it is for the common miniatures only, which given a large enough sample size should be fairly uniform.

In my case the duplicate boxes contained 2 common & 2 uncommon. Which would put the odds of what I got somewhere in between 1:320 billion and 1:500 trillion.

Iron-Dice,
What alternative distribution method was suggested, and what are the pros and cons? I do not seem to see a different method offered, unless you are referring to my post about single booster randomness. In which case I said other constraints should stay in place, meaning those that buy bricks or cases wouldn't notice any difference. The miniature ratios would stay the same, people just less likely that any 2 boxes would be exact matches.

Cpt_kirstov,
Perhaps someone will, it would be interesting, but it won't be me anytime soon.

Catprog,

Going back through my posts you are correct that I screwed up and was inflating my numbers as a result. I apologize for the mistakes, guess I shouldn't try to do probability or factorials while playing Guild Wars...

You were correct that the total chance of any single combination is only 1:79,464 rather than the 1:476,784 I posted. while the total change of getting the same 3 miniatures in any order would be 1:13244 I'm not sure what I was thinking... or smoking.

That increases the odds of getting 3 boosters with the same miniatures, in the same order to 1:501,777,597,049,344. That is still extremely small, and I am still more likely to win the lottery and get stuck by lightning.

Even if the store I went to did switch things around, which I doubt since they are the largest and most popular gaming store in my area, I would still only have a 1:320,013,504,000 chance of getting 3 boxes with the same miniatures, in the exact same order.

As I've stated several time I am not upset about receiving duplicate miniatures, just the circumstances that I received them under. The probability is so low, even given the worst circumstances, that it should never have been an issue.

My method is the way mathematics handles non-repeating number sequences where .... so it does not apply to a 4x2 matrix, this is because the second column only has 1 option. So for pairs it will always be n(n-1) combinations. Which give you 4*3 in you example, 3*2 in a 3x2 matrix, 5*4 in a 5x2 matrix.

1 2 | 2 1 | 3 1 | 4 1 | 5 1
1 3 | 2 3 | 3 2 | 4 2 | 5 2
1 4 | 2 4 | 3 4 | 4 3 | 5 3
1 5 | 2 5 | 3 5 | 4 5 | 5 4

However with sequences of 3 or greater, IE where n-1>1 it does indeed work. For example the number of non-repeating combinations in a 4x4 matrix would be 24. (4*3*2)

1 2 3 4 | 2 1 3 4 | 3 1 2 4 | 4 1 2 3
1 2 4 3 | 2 1 4 3 | 3 1 4 2 | 4 1 3 2
1 4 2 3 | 2 4 1 3 | 3 4 1 2 | 4 3 1 2
1 4 3 2 | 2 4 3 1 | 3 4 2 1 | 4 3 2 1
1 3 4 2 | 2 3 4 1 | 3 2 4 1 | 4 2 3 1
1 3 2 4 | 2 3 1 4 | 3 2 1 4 | 4 2 1 3

Take for example 4 items in random sets of 3. According to what you posted originally there should be (4*3*2) ways of getting the numbers (1,2,3 for example) in the correct order or "with order mattering" as you put it. Followed by 12 ways to get the set "if you consider just flips (i.e 1,2,3 and 3,2,1)" and lastly 6 ways if "you consider [1,2,3] the same as [1,3,2] etc." ... So lets look at the numbers at a non-repeating matrix for 4x3.

1 2 3 | 2 1 3 | 3 1 2 | 4 1 2
1 2 4 | 2 1 4 | 3 1 4 | 4 1 3
1 3 2 | 2 3 1 | 3 2 1 | 4 2 1
1 3 4 | 2 3 4 | 3 2 4 | 4 2 3
1 4 2 | 2 4 1 | 3 4 1 | 4 3 1
1 4 3 | 2 4 3 | 3 4 2 | 4 3 2

As you cans see there are 24 possible combinations, so the chance of getting 1,2,3 exactly would be 1:24. While the chances of getting those three numbers in any order would be 1:6 such as this.

1 2 3 | 2 1 3 | 3 1 2
1 3 2 | 2 3 1 | 3 2 1

Your original statements seems to imply the opposite though. That there should be 24 ways to get the specific order required (1,2,3 for example) followed by 12 ways to get (1,2,3 or 3,2,1) and 6 ways to get any possible combination such as (1,2,3 or 1,3,2).

To get 1,2,3 three times in a row such as I did would be a 1:13,824 chance, yet you seem to be implying it should only be 1:216?

Chris, I made this offer to labmonkey as well: I have a bunch of duplicates and spares if you'd like to trade one for one. It might cost a bit in postage but you'll literally be able to name the minis you want and I'm in no rush (so slow boat to australia would be fine, plus ill send mine first, in case I sound like I'm some Nigerian scam. ;p)

Fwiw, I don't see any problem with wizkids' labelling. I think that's just how things are in the collectible world (no doubt baseball card collectors face the same issue). Nonetheless, I appreciate it could feel annoying and who wants that as an introduction to pathfinder/paizo? :)

Pm me if you're interested. I'm sure we can work out something that will suit you.

It is not that I have a problem with having multiple of the same miniatures, in fact I'm glade I got 3 ogres, and am fine with having 3 of the other ones. I do not really care about collecting them all either, I only care that 3 of the 5 boxes I've purchased are the exact same boxes. As I said, were the miniatures spread between all 5 boxes and I just ended up with 3 of each of those miniatures I would be fine, assume I had bad luck and try again next weekend.

Chris Evans 52 wrote:

If you want numbers how about this (using 1-50 to account for rarity, rounding down, and ignoring the large creature), the chance at getting any specific "Random assortment in each box" is about 1 in 100,000 The chance of getting them in a specific order is about 1 in 700,000. The chance of getting three boxes of the exact same figures, in the exact same order is about 1 in 351,298,031,616,000,000.

Their are 6 ways arranging 3 figures.

[A,B,C] , [A,C,B] etc

Now assuming you don't have duplicate figures in a box and 44 medium/small minis.

44*43*42=79,464 ways of picking 3 different numbers from 44 with the order mattering.

39,732 if you consider just flips (i.e 1,2,3 and 3,2,1)

13,244 of you consider A,B,C the same as A,C,B etc.

times those numbers by 16 for the large minis.

I didn't know there were 44, so my math was off. But 44*43*42 will only give you the probability of getting 3 specific miniatures, not in any specific order though. As you mentioned there is only a 1 in 6 chance that they will be in any given order. Your math looks like to divided instead of multiplied. Odd always go down the more complex they get.

If you flip a quarter twice you have a 50% chance of getting a head and a tail, but you only have a 25% chance of getting them in that order, and 25% of the opposite order. Do it four times and you have a 50% chance of getting 2 heads and 2 tails, but only a 6.25% chance of getting four flips in that order.

That being said there is a 1 in 44 chance to get any of the three followed by 1 in 43 for either of the two remaining, and 1 in 42 for the final miniature. To get a specific order we must also account for the 1 in 3 chance that the first is correct, the 1 in 2 for the second being correct and 1 in 1 for the final, which comes to a 1 in 6 chance like you mentioned ...

So you have a 1 in 79,464 chance of getting those three miniatures in any order (assuming equal weighting for the 44 available). But there is only a 1 in 6 chance they will be ordered correctly.

You end up with 44*43*42*6 or 1 in 476,784 chance of picking a single random box having a specific set of 3 miniatures in a certain order.

No spread that over 3 boxes (1:476,784 for the first, second, and third ) and you have a 1 in 108,383,960,962,658,304... Admittedly I was off by a third. And am still off by a fair margin due to the 44 not being equally weighted.

The odds of being struck by lighting and winning the lottery in one month are about 1 in 123 trillion. So I was still almost a hundred time more likely to become an electrified millionaire...

Vic,

I am not intending to argue the definition of random. I completely understand that it is meant to imply that you do not know what you will get in a box. My only complaint about the random part is that the box says "Random Assortment", when in reality it is more of a random set. IE it seems like you will randomly get set a, b, or c being a fixed three pieces set rather than 3 randomly picked miniatures. It is only a minor semantics complaint and not the heart of my misgivings about the miniatures.

I guess the best analogy i can give is that if I said I had a random assortment of change to give you and it turned out to be a dozen nickels, that wouldn't seem like a very random assortment. It would still be random, it just wouldn't feel as such.

I am also not meaning to imply that the miniatures should be completely random or that distribution should be completely random, that would be far worse for merchants and those that can buy cases or bricks.
I would rather see a happy medium where the individual miniatures withing a single booster are more random, while bricks and cases are grouped in the same manner they are now, as you described above.

If I pull 3 boosters off a shelf that are presumably from a single case or two and all 3 boosters contain the same miniatures, in the same order it casts doubt about the authenticity of any amount of randomness. I am upset that 60% of what I have spent on miniatures has been for duplicate boxes, had I gotten 3 sets of the same miniatures mixed between the 5 boxes I wouldn't be complaining, and just chalk it up to bad luck.

As I pointed out the chances of pulling 3 boxes from one location and all three containing the exact same miniatures in the exact same order is so slim as to be ridiculously negligible. But that is exactly what happened to me, it is very disheartening and has made me not want to purchase further Pathfinder products.

Some may disagree and say that I am being critical and whiny, and they are free to have that opinion, but I feel like I ordered 5 "variety" packs of coffee and got a tub of Folgers decaf and a two k-cups... If that makes any sense.

TLDR: I am NOT upset about having duplicate miniatures, I would actually like to have several of each common miniature, you can never have enough goblins. I am only upset that 60% of the boxes I've purchased have been duplicates. The probability of grabbing 5 boxes off a shelf and 3 being the exact same thing should be so low as to be a non-issue, but it happened to me. And since I am new to Pathfinder it has been extremely disheartening and has left me with a bad taste in my mouth and turned me off of future purchases.

Saying that Paizo has ANY blame in this is absolutely ridicules. That is like saying that MARVEL should apologize to you because that Spiderman t-shirt that was made by the Mountain, that you bought at the comic store ran small.

Also to say that the items are for the pathfinder game is also false. They are for any fantasy miniature game. I mean the Gandalf figure ,ade in the 80's wasn't really meant to be used by someone playing LOTR and playing Gandalf.
Seriously, stuff happens. Random is exactly that, random. It doesn't mean different, it means it could be anything, even the same. Next people will be suing restaurants cause their hot coffee is Hot oh wait.

1) Paizo is the owner of the Pathfinder trademark and game world. If they licence production of anything to another company and people have complaints with the product they have every right to bring those concerns to Paizo.

Your example of a shirt being too small is not comparable to this situation. Now if you bought five shirts, and the printed graphic washed off of three of them the first time through the washer. Don't you think it is reasonable to complain to Marvel about the low quality of materials being used by a company they have licensed and important trademark to? Or should you just get over it & buy 3 more?

2) I would gladly post a picture of the box which says Pathfinder on it no less than 3 times. While they can be, and are, used for other games, they are not marketed as such. Nowhere on the box does it say for use with other fantasy miniature games. Yet it does have the Paizo game and trademark plastered on every side, even the bottom. They are licensing their trademark, and are responsible to some degree for how it is used.

3) My complaint is not that I got multiple of the same figures, that is without a doubt expected. It is not even that I got 2 boxes with the same figures. It is that I bought 5 boosters and 3 of them were exactly the same figures in exactly the same order (16, 21, 10, and 33 for the large), inside what is labeled as a "Random assortment in each box". While I understand it is possible, the probability of each of the 3 boxes containing the exact same "Random assortment" is so low as to be negligible.

If you want numbers how about this (using 1-50 to account for rarity, rounding down, and ignoring the large creature), the chance at getting any specific "Random assortment in each box" is about 1 in 100,000 The chance of getting them in a specific order is about 1 in 700,000. The chance of getting three boxes of the exact same figures, in the exact same order is about 1 in 351,298,031,616,000,000.

To put it in perspective, as best I can. I had a better chance of being struck by lightning AND winning the Mega-Millions lottery this past month than I should have of getting 3 booster sets of 3 miniatures in the exact same order.

My point is that the "Random assortment in each box" printed on the box is misleading, and to some extent a lie. while the contents may be unknown, and the box is therefore "random", the assortment of figures in the box does not seem to be random.

I would like to point out that these minis are NOT a Paizo product. They are produced by Wizkids under a license. Paizo has very little control over how these minis are released. We have told Wizkids that we think it is important to get close to a full set in each case. But we don't have much more control than that.

I have seen a lot of comments in this thread about Paizo this and Paizo that. If you have complaints about distribution of these minis, please take them to Wizkids, the company who made them and who has the ability to change things if there is a problem.

One thing we can do is bring concerns to Wizkids ourselves, so it is good to bring up problems here. I just don't want folks to get the idea that we are making these minis. We are just a licensor and a retailer. The original poster's problem is one that only Wizkids can handle. Please contact their customer service department.

I really don't want people pissed at Paizo for things we don't control.

Thanks

Lisa

I would like to point out that these mini's are for a Paizo game, and Paizo directly controls who they license production to. This may sound cliched, but "You're only as good as the company you keep." Paizo is directly responsible for their customer's satisfaction, if they are working with companies that generate complaints from their customers, then it is Paiso's problem just as much as WizKids'.

I would like to comment on this, as I had a similar experience but it was at a single store.

I bought three boosters one weekend, then bought two boosters a weekend later. I ended up with THREE of the exact same boosters. One from the first weekend and both from the second weekend were the exact same miniatures... Over those two weekends I spent $300 on pathfinder products as I was just getting into the game. I had not played a table top RPG since I was in middle school and joined some friends from work for a game. I thought it was awesome and the very next day visited a local gaming store and purchased the beginner box, core rule book, GM book, three miniature boosters and a couple other things.

While I expected some overlap and a few of the same miniatures, to receive three packages of the exact same supposedly "random" product seems, at the very least disingenuous, and at worst an outright lie.

I sent a message to customer service Monday night and just this afternoon received Vic Wertz posts and a link to this thread as a response.

I am sorely disappointing and will not be purchasing any more boosters. Last weekend I picked up $80 worth of miniatures and paint, so far I'm not doing terrible.