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The table assumes that characters will have an item bonus for their skills at certain levels. Unfortunately that is simply not always true.
First, not all skills have an item that grants a bonus. Most skills do not have a mundane tool that can be acquired for a mundane item bonus. Those that do usually have specific uses of the skill that the bonus applies to, so other uses of that skill are without a bonus that is expected in 10-2.
Second, not all skills have magic items that provide an item bonus. And again, many that do only apply to certain tasks, not the whole skill. Furthermore, the level of a magic item that provides a given bonus varies. For example the level at which an item gives a +2 item bonus ranges from 5 to 7, and the level of a +4 bonus ranges from 13 to 16. Additionally, not all skills have access to the same bonuses. Most have access to +2 and +4 bonuses, but only 7 of the skills have a +3 bonus, and only 6 of the skills have a +5 bonus. Survival and Thievery have no items that affect all uses of those skills.
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Just to everyone knows...
Mark Seifter already told us that the designers are looking in this table and the problem with items...
But in my opinion I don't like either that DC's account for items. I'm more in the power in the PC and not in the Magic Items...
Table 10-2 is still designed around the most optimized character in the world. Take a character with an 18 stat; apply all stat boosts to that stat; increase proficiency at 3rd, 7th, and 15th levels; apply potent item at level 16; apply a +2 item bonus at level 8; and apply a +4 item bonus at level 16 (assume attached to the potent item) and you get the following results:
Easy tasks have a 90-95% success rate. This increases with level and at higher levels critical successes become more common that regular successes.
Medium tasks have a 65-95% success rate. This generally increases with level. Outliers are easily explained by a difference in assumptions of when characters will gain certain bonuses.
Hard tasks have a 55-80% success rate. This generally increases with level. Outliers are easily explained by a difference in assumptions of when characters will gain certain bonuses.
Incredible tasks have a 40-60% success rate. They start at 50% for a few levels then drop for about 10 levels and then come back up to over 50% at level 16.
Ultimate tasks have a 30-45% success rate. There is no correlation with level.
A much more average character does not fare so well. Assume a 14 stat that is increased at levels 5 and 15, a +2 item bonus at level 10 and picking up expert at level 11.
Easy tasks have an 80-95% success rate that increases with level.
Medium tasks have a 50-65% success rate that mostly increases with level. The outliers are easily explained by different assumptions of when characters will gain certain bonuses.
Hard tasks have a 35-50% success rate that mostly stays at 45%. The outliers are easily explained by different assumptions of when characters will gain certain bonuses.
Incredible tasks have a 20-40% success rate that mostly decreases with level.
Ultimate tasks have a 5-30% success rate that mostly decreases with level.
Just to everyone knows...
Mark Seifter already told us that the designers are looking in this table and the problem with items...
But in my opinion I don't like either that DC's account for items. I'm more in the power in the PC and not in the Magic Items...
This edition seems much like RIFTS where it is all about the gear and the character is just there to carry it.