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"But Sspitfire, you just made those numbers up to make a point."
Yes, true. But I didn't make these numbers up. Nor these.
Why the system works:
The core combat elements (HP, Defenses, Attack Power, etc.) increase exponentially through the first few months of game play, then level out into incremental growth before CAPPING in the long term.
The gradual power increase after core combat elements cap is due to increased versatility of the character, not increased power.
As this game is meant to be played in groups, versatility will not be at a premium. Specialization will be.
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I'm pretty sure the math is fairly straightforward. 4 characters 6 months into the game could likely defeat any one of us starting on day 1 of EE and playing for 5 years. The biggest power-gap comes down to equipment - and I'm pretty sure at 6 months they could use Tier 3 equipment. (No, I haven't checked those numbers.)
That said, playing intelligently and having high stealth/perception will always be advantageous - but they will not change the damage and HP numbers beyond Surprise! which means they aren't going to let you automatically win, either.
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Goblin Squad Member
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I'm pretty sure the math is fairly straightforward. 4 characters 6 months into the game could likely defeat any one of us starting on day 1 of EE and playing for 5 years. The biggest power-gap comes down to equipment - and I'm pretty sure at 6 months they could use Tier 3 equipment. (No, I haven't checked those numbers.)
That said, playing intelligently and having high stealth/perception will always be advantageous - but they will not change the damage and HP numbers beyond Surprise! which means they aren't going to let you automatically win, either.
There is also the diminishing returns of the higher levels.
I have not done the exact figures but level 20 of a feature probably adds 5% to your capability at an XP/time cost equivalent to all of the first 19 levels combined.
A 2 year old character is likely to be about 5-10% less capable than a 5 year old character - not 50% less.
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I'm pretty sure the math is fairly straightforward. 4 characters 6 months into the game could likely defeat any one of us starting on day 1 of EE and playing for 5 years. The biggest power-gap comes down to equipment - and I'm pretty sure at 6 months they could use Tier 3 equipment. (No, I haven't checked those numbers.)
That said, playing intelligently and having high stealth/perception will always be advantageous - but they will not change the damage and HP numbers beyond Surprise! which means they aren't going to let you automatically win, either.
"Surprise!" Isn't an auto win but it is a HUGE factor in this kind of game.
When you are sneaking up on a person you have time to mentally prepare and make plans for the combat to come, while the target has from the moment you reveal yourself / they notice you.
Most people's PvP experience comes from FPS games and other battleground/arena style stuff. In those kinds of games everyone is constantly wary because the expectation of attack is always very high. Especially if they've encountered or been told of stealthers on your team earlier in the match. They're always partially prepared for an attack at any moment drastically increasing how difficult it is to sneak up on them and how quickly they will recover when caught unaware.
In Darkfall you had no stealth skill, no sneak attack bonus etc. but you could still ambush people and it still gave a huge advantage. Why? The expectation of attack was much lower. In certain areas at certain times you could go hours without encountering another player so people's guard was often much lower than you would expect in an arena.
PFO has far more safeguards from random attack than Darkfall, and at this point, far less players interested in doing so. As a result I'm expecting the wariness of the average PFO player to be much, much lower than even Darkfall players because there is less expectation of an attack.
How does that translate into the power of ambush?
Well someone on the UNC Teamspeak was telling me that when him and another UNC ambushed Decius he was so panicked and confused he attacked the other person first and then switched to target him after doing some damage to the other person, splitting his damage between the two and making himself an even easier target.
Now I wouldn't expect most ambush targets to respond that poorly but I don't expect a great many of them will jump straight into "I'm ready to PvP" mode instantly either.
So when you hand a vet enhanced attack, enhanced defense AND enhanced stealth / perception those kinds of powers REALLY start stacking up. Especially since stealth and perception aren't even gear based at this point.
And that's just the skills already in the game. Of the ones planned to be included I've noted fly but I'm sure that one couldn't possible be used to gain any kind of huge advantage in PvP. ;) And we don't know what else will be in the game by the time veterans would be approaching max strength based on the currently included skills.
That's the thing. If we can take stealth and perception on any character why would ride, fly, or any other of these skills that make it in be any different? And when it takes 6+ months to max one just how many years do you think one might be able to train in a specific build before ever having to stop focusing on gaining strength to diversify into crafting or builds incompatible with their main one when these skill are continually being released?
So I don't care who says that graph is accurate, if I can train and make use of a skill like stealth, disguise, or flying without having to give anything up that's going to represent a spike of power in that graph as they get implemented.
That's just common sense, or at least it should be.
Maybe he it wasn't so much panic, but the UI hampered his ability to respond effectively.
I would tend to agree that PvP is about more than the numbers (stats or people).
But mainly, I would assert that a 5 year player if a veteran of PvP would hopefully be smart enough to not be caught alone in an ambush in the first place.
I think the real equalizers will be how well they balance group combat and AoE feats and such. 1v1 pvp combat is for arenas. Real open world PvP is almost always about groups ganking others or group solo fights that escalate into group fights as people call in friends.
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But mainly, I would assert that a 5 year player if a veteran of PvP would hopefully be smart enough to not be caught alone in an ambush in the first place.
I think you're going to find that 5 year PvP veterans will often be the biggest risk takers of all and it will sometimes lead to them getting ambushed alone and dying.
But some of the the most feared PvPers in these kind of games are known best for their solo exploits.
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I think you're going to find that 5 year PvP veterans will often be the biggest risk takers of all and it will sometimes lead to them getting ambushed alone and dying.
I'd attribute that to yolo mentality coupled with boredom.
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I think it's the fact that soloing is common, and no matter what a game developer wants to do they cannot cut out soloing from being an effective style of play without sinking the game because just because you want to be a part of a group in an MMO doesn't mean you constantly want to (or are even able to) be with the herd at every moment and never accomplishing anything on your own.
Those soloers find that there are many other soloers out there they can compete with, then as they grow as powerful as a player like William Wallace they realize they are actually more powerful than some of the lesser groups people are capable of throwing together.
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I think it's the fact that soloing is common, and no matter what a game developer wants to do they cannot cut out soloing from being an effective style of play without sinking the game because just because you want to be a part of a group in an MMO doesn't mean you constantly want to (or are even able to) be with the herd at every moment and never accomplishing anything on your own.
Those soloers find that there are many other soloers out there they can compete with, then as they grow as powerful as a player like William Wallace they realize they are actually more powerful than some of the lesser groups people are capable of throwing together.
You are still able to solo, small groups of mobs, with a good multi role build. Maybe not against Ogres, but certainly against Goblins, Bandits and Skeleton. Wolves can be a bit of a hassle with their interrupts.
Long Bow / Long Sword / Heavy Armor + Self Healing (Fighter, Rogue, Cleric) combo works well.
This is built off the actual exp tables.
It includes Maxing:
HP
1 Save
3 Defensive Feats
6 Attack Feats
2 Reactive Feats
2 Utility Feats
3 Proficiencies (weapon and armor)
1 Implement Proficiency
1 Special BAB
1 Armor
1 Feature
Recovery Bonus
*Power up to level 30
*Does not include maneuvers and spells (I need to get those in my charts!!!)
The next step, now that I have this, is to estimate attack strength, defense strength, etc. at each level (I've actually already done HP above).
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How's its rank in stealth and perception? Did it account for the possible investment into things like ride, fly, and athletics if they become available during that time period? Did it account for any as of yet unannounced skills and abilities we are likely to see added over the next 5 years?
Or is this build just a blunt object meant to give someone the raw stats of a vet in shiny areas like damage and armor rating and which will surely be stomped by a player with a more strategic build?
Also is your power curve accounting for the fact that advantages in multiple critical stats make a character exponentially stronger than if the gap were in a single stat such as damage or HP?
Simple Example using partially made up numbers though some of them should be familiar.
Newb does 45 damage per hit. Vet does 100 damage.
Newb has 400 health. Vet has 1400.
Newb resists 10% of damage. Vet resists 60% of damage.It would take Newb 78 hits to kill Vet.
(1400/[45x0.4])= 77.77
It would take Vet 5 hits to kill Newb.
(400/[100x0.1])= 4.44
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How's its rank in stealth and perception? Did it account for the possible investment into things like ride, fly, and athletics if they become available during that time period? Did it account for any as of yet unannounced skills and abilities we are likely to see added over the next 5 years?
Or is this build just a blunt object meant to give someone the raw stats of a vet in shiny areas like damage and armor rating and which will surely be stomped by a player with a more strategic build?
Also is your power curve accounting for the fact that advantages in multiple critical stats make a character exponentially stronger than if the gap were in a single stat such as damage or HP?
Simple Example using partially made up numbers though some of them should be familiar.
Newb does 45 damage per hit. Vet does 100 damage.
Newb has 400 health. Vet has 1400.
Newb resists 10% of damage. Vet resists 60% of damage.It would take Newb 78 hits to kill Vet.
(1400/[45x0.4])=77.77
It would take Vet 5 hits to kill Newb.
(400/[100x0.1])= 4.44
So you are pointing out that four newbs can probably take out the Vet. Sounds like it is pretty close to the intent, doesn't it?
The Vet will kill one newb every five blows. Until that happens the first time, the four newbs get to make twenty hits, give or take a few. Next five blows, fifteen for a total of thirty-five. Next five blows, ten for a total of forty-five. Finally, the final newb gets to make five blows against Vet before dying. Grand total is fifty blows, not enough to kill the Vet. I may have missed something here, admittedly.
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How new are we talking here? This thread was started to point out the comparitive power levels of 5y toons vs. 2y toons. Sure, I wouldn't except newbies to do too well against a maxed player—it's not smart to rely on a force of "As Weak As They Can Possibly Be" in the first place!
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I would have to say that a battle between 1 vet and 4 players only a month old would most likely go to the 4 players if they were at all coordinated. I would account for this based on synergy of feats, interrupts, knockdowns so forth that you have 4x the possibility of pulling off and could have those 4 players at level 6-8 in that time with decently rounded equipment. Even if a few levels lower 4 on one has a chance. If you are just talking stand in a circle and let the Vet line you up and hit you, he has a chance, but if you even spread out a little with some ranged, a Fighter and Rogue tag team, a cleric healing them and so forth, the Vet is going down. Maybe not easily but a very good portion of the time.
Sure when you look at just the numbers it goes the way of the vet but what happens when that Rogue disengages after the first 3 hits, has the Cleric heal him while the Fighter is knocking the Vet down, and the Wizard is freezing the Vet? As soon as the Vet gets the Fighter down a bit he makes a bit of a run for it and the Vet can chase all the while getting hit by the other three. The Vet is toast. Play out out in a real battle and that's what happens most of the time. Sure the Vet will have skills and tricks and equipment but with the graduated power curve as long as the 4 aren't day 1 characters I'm pretty sure they could own the Vet in that setup. Even if they are day 1 characters with experienced players they could wreck havoc. Again, play through it with the low level skills and equipment of 4 to 1 higher powered but still single opponent.
That is my take on things from playing over the last 2 months.
Wexel sums it up well. What will really end up mattering is player skill, not character levels—something which still works for Andius, who we all know is very experienced in and dedicated to these sorts of games and will no doubt be gankin' like a pro in a matter of months.
The "trinity" of "who wins?" is player ability and strategy, numbers, and levels. And if you have two of the three advantages down, you can generally squash someone who's depending on one.
Of the three, "numbers" is doubtless the most powerful—just for the massive increase in versatility you get as a result. It's the exact same in the tabletop—ever heard of the "action economy", also known as "why Dragotha is totally fair to pit against a four-man party, stop crying and tell me what you got on the Fortitude save"? Numbers is huge when numbers are huge. That's not to say numbers always trumps the others—obviously, two newbies can't take down a veteran—but when balanced, numbers just gives you more bang for your buck.
That's why soloing, while inevitable, just won't be quite as good. :P
Something to point out: despite there being four guys with knockdowns/stuns/Hideous Laughter, this isn't taking into account the fact that the chance of them actually succeeding is only so likely - four saves against a DC 15 spell with a +12 bonus is different than four DC 10 saves with no bonus. You also have to wonder what the more experienced character will do with his own abilities as far as taking out his weaker enemies.
I guess the point is that we don't have too much to work with at this point in time (I think everyone is in agreement with that much at least) but it is a concern that should be kept in mind and paid attention too fairly closely because it could be a real problem otherwise.
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Wexel that is how it should work, but the games some of us have been playing recently, that informed some of us of The Way Things Are, didn't play out like that.
I think that, other than my always popping up to sound like a snoot-flute, most of the issues are so loudly decried because of legacy expectations from all those other games.
And I think many of the problems we face in PFO will be a result of players attempting to play in ways left over from all those other games.
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@ KC
Thanks and I agree.
@ Pigtails
Point taken and that will be a factor that is still as yet unknown (agreeing with you there). The really low end new characters will definitely have problems getting by the defenses of the Vet but on the sliding scale, even if those new characters are even just a few weeks old it makes a tremendous difference in that gap. I was taking that into account but I haven't really run the numbers on just how effective a newb will be against the Vet on raw ability to be effective in your use of skills. From what I've found, even at low levels if a feat can cause a flat fitted state (%50 chance), it does so even if you are fighting a Vet. These factors can all change dramatically. I am actually in favor of the Vet having a bitter better chance because of all that time and effort put into the character and it may still weigh in heavier than I described above, but with the current data it appears more geared towards numbers trumping experience. They may add better ways to balance that as time goes on though. Still very few 1 hit kill type setups, but still giving the Vet a fighting chance against lesser foes.
@ Being
I agree that many add in what they have experienced in other games, both expectations and disappointments, information given turning out to be false and never coming into being. I'm still hopeful that PFO becomes something new and different. It already is too me but maybe not to most.
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I think it's the fact that soloing is common, and no matter what a game developer wants to do they cannot cut out soloing from being an effective style of play without sinking the game because just because you want to be a part of a group in an MMO doesn't mean you constantly want to (or are even able to) be with the herd at every moment and never accomplishing anything on your own.
Those soloers find that there are many other soloers out there they can compete with, then as they grow as powerful as a player like William Wallace they realize they are actually more powerful than some of the lesser groups people are capable of throwing together.
You are still able to solo, small groups of mobs, with a good multi role build. Maybe not against Ogres, but certainly against Goblins, Bandits and Skeleton. Wolves can be a bit of a hassle with their interrupts.
Long Bow / Long Sword / Heavy Armor + Self Healing (Fighter, Rogue, Cleric) combo works well.
You can solo multiple ogres just not big groups of them and you definitely cannot just stand around spamming attack against even two runts you need to self heal and occasionally exit combat and reinitialise the engagement.
What I think is more poignant is the fact that a 10th level character walking around in tier 2 swag will be achievable in about 3 months or 4 months, depending on how side-tracked the player gets with non-PvP Combat feats.
I think a 5 year vet jumping a pack of level 0 or level 1 characters would quickly dispatch the lot of them, personally. The Vet's attacks will be nigh on 100% effective thanks to the T3 items and maxed out key words while the effectiveness of the level 1 mob's attacks will be greatly reduced. Add to that the much taughted and, yes, very important element of surprise AND the fact that the vet will know just who to kill first to break the group's most likely and most threatening strategies, the vet will win every time unless they fat-finger the wrong attack or the level 1 character mob just all-around gets lucky.
But who cares? Players will be at level 1 for all of a day. Literally. By the end of their first three months, they will be rocking Tier 2 gear AND have the wisdom of experience under their belts. A vet attacking a bunch of 10th level characters- that would be a much more dangerous fight.
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On the topic of "surprise", there is still plenty of time for GW to add in consumables and expendables that will help a member of a party spot incoming assailants. There are already a few, including Lesser Charm of Awareness, the Lookout Utility Feat, and Invisibility Purge.
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Put another way, the portion of the population that will be below level 4 on any given day in the game will be nigh on 0% (maybe 1%). Those are highly highly transient levels that players simply won't spend any significant time in.
Accumulation won't start to happen until above level 4, where it will take about 2 weeks to get to level 5. But even that is ephemeral in the grand scheme of things.
The population distribution for the long term of the game will look something like this. Note that "levels" 21-24 simply represent accounts that are 3.5, 4, 4.5 and 5 years old, respectively.
If there is anything amiss with this illustration, it is in the longterm accounts- how many of us who start the game on Day 1 of OE will actually still be here on day 1,825 is anybody's guess. But how many folks will be below level 10? Relatively not many.
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Put another way, the portion of the population that will be below level 4 on any given day in the game will be nigh on 0% (maybe 1%). Those are highly highly transient levels that players simply won't spend any significant time in.
Accumulation won't start to happen until above level 4, where it will take about 2 weeks to get to level 5. But even that is ephemeral in the grand scheme of things.
The population distribution for the long term of the game will look something like this. Note that "levels" 21-24 simply represent accounts that are 3.5, 4, 4.5 and 5 years old, respectively.
If there is anything amiss with this illustration, it is in the longterm accounts- how many of us who start the game on Day 1 of OE will actually still be here on day 1,825 is anybody's guess. But how many folks will be below level 10? Relatively not many.
My Guess: close to a normal distribution with a slight skew towards the lower end. A mean of around 12 or so, Median around the 10 mark, Standard Deviation probably about 2 or 3.
So you are pointing out that four newbs can probably take out the Vet. Sounds like it is pretty close to the intent, doesn't it?How's its rank in stealth and perception? Did it account for the possible investment into things like ride, fly, and athletics if they become available during that time period? Did it account for any as of yet unannounced skills and abilities we are likely to see added over the next 5 years?
Or is this build just a blunt object meant to give someone the raw stats of a vet in shiny areas like damage and armor rating and which will surely be stomped by a player with a more strategic build?
Also is your power curve accounting for the fact that advantages in multiple critical stats make a character exponentially stronger than if the gap were in a single stat such as damage or HP?
Simple Example using partially made up numbers though some of them should be familiar.
Newb does 45 damage per hit. Vet does 100 damage.
Newb has 400 health. Vet has 1400.
Newb resists 10% of damage. Vet resists 60% of damage.It would take Newb 78 hits to kill Vet.
(1400/[45x0.4])=77.77
It would take Vet 5 hits to kill Newb.
(400/[100x0.1])= 4.44
Not to mention, that's if the four nubs and the vet just run at each other and stand there while using attacks. haha. I would think the vet's build would be a lot better and more well-rounded so he would probably be able to win in more cases than not. In some cases, I could see the vet slaughtering them. If speed boosts, self healing, defense, etc, are all advantages of the vet, there's no way he'd let the whole group catch him and pound him down except maybe for a short while while he was killing one, then he'd get back out, heal, etc.
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The point I was gesturing toward is that the design goal of making it so the maximal character having to think twice before bullying a crowd of much lower level characters will be met in the design, and I hold the position that this is a plus for the design, and not a delta.
I hereby dub Sspitfire, Lord Grandmaster Chalupa Graph-maestro Extreme.
My Guess: close to a normal distribution with a slight skew towards the lower end. A mean of around 12 or so, Median around the 10 mark, Standard Deviation probably about 2 or 3.Put another way, the portion of the population that will be below level 4 on any given day in the game will be nigh on 0% (maybe 1%). Those are highly highly transient levels that players simply won't spend any significant time in.
Accumulation won't start to happen until above level 4, where it will take about 2 weeks to get to level 5. But even that is ephemeral in the grand scheme of things.
The population distribution for the long term of the game will look something like this. Note that "levels" 21-24 simply represent accounts that are 3.5, 4, 4.5 and 5 years old, respectively.
If there is anything amiss with this illustration, it is in the longterm accounts- how many of us who start the game on Day 1 of OE will actually still be here on day 1,825 is anybody's guess. But how many folks will be below level 10? Relatively not many.
I have to disagree. GW wants "very very long customer life-cycles." I assume that means a minimum average of 1 years old for accounts. That will put us at level 15 for the mean. The median would probably be somewhere above that since the first 10 levels are so quickly cycled through.
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I hereby dub Sspitfire, Lord Grandmaster Chalupa Graph-maestro Extreme.
lol Thanks, Doc :) And I hereby retire from my title as Lord Grandmaster Chalupa Graph-maestro Extreme.
EDIT: A slightly better version of the last graph I posted. Ok now I am retired!.
The point I was gesturing toward is that the design goal of making it so the maximal character having to think twice before bullying a crowd of much lower level characters will be met in the design, and I hold the position that this is a plus for the design, and not a delta.
Oh yeah, I know, but I'm just saying that they may be thinking twice but they will ultimately do it pretty easily.
Time for a Mortal pvp video? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0uLUOj3bpw
The truth is even a 15% difference is v large. And that's given that the character is a 2.5 year old char... which is not a new char at all.
Or it's like in League of Legends how you get all of those little bonuses like runes and such... and they make a much larger difference than you may think.
I think the system is good... there shouldn't be a huge just roflstomp power curve, but let's not act like it's gonna be nubs being safe from getting ganked by one person.
If anything, I foresee the power curve being more to the side of low-level alts ganking characters that are higher level but possibly not as skilled.
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Well someone on the UNC Teamspeak was telling me that when him and another UNC ambushed Decius he was so panicked and confused he attacked the other person first and then switched to target him after doing some damage to the other person, splitting his damage between the two and making himself an even easier target.
Actually, I saw that the melee attacker was using the build I recommended and was using, and since there was only +0 equipment at the time, he was individually my equal. With the added ranged support, there was zero chance that I could score a kill fighting the target that wanted me to attack. There was a nonzero chance that I could change to the target granting opportunity and drop him with the BGE, but not a large one.
I could have dropped evade and tried to get Xeen tangled in some wolves before I ran out of health, but that had a much lower chance of victory. Had there been any element of surprise, the evade option would have been the used as soon as I realized there was an attack; I just made the call that the highest value outcome for me was finishing the node I was on and then taking a durability hit.
Considering that I experienced negligible loss, I don't consider that kill to have been a defeat. I'm not sure why Xeen considered it a notable victory.