Goblin Squad Member
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We haven't even reached 1st of June - isn't it dangerous to predict how many votes you need to get a settlement during the landrush?
Well - maybe - but there is a very good base to extrapolate from.
Here are the predictions
total number of votes cast: 1500
Members needed to reach the top 10: 40
Minimum members needed to get a settlement: 8
Members needed to stay inside the top 40: 6
How do I get to these numbers?
Lets start with the total number of votes / members for settlements
Adding up all pledges I get to 6338 EE slots - this includes counting crowd forgers as 6 slots. There are a few extra ones that will be paid later, there are some that didn't got paid (see one of Ryan's posts) and there will be some that just never will be claimed as 15 month is a long time. So just set this number to 6500 and we won't be too far off.
Next step - how many people will vote?
We just had the European election here - turnout numbers vary from as low as 13.8% (Slovakia) up to around 50% in some of the larger countries. Yes - Belgium has 90% - but no clue why.
So if turnout at something as important (or unimportant) as European Parliament is at 13-50% then this gives us a bracket from 10-50% for PF (it seems the offial number across all of Europe is 43%).
That would be the range 650-3250.
1500 is approx. the half of that. That would make it 23% of all votes
Does it makes sense?
Well - we had 588 votes (thanks Tyncale) on Friday and my count earlier today was 696. So the lower range of 650 is already reached - but commitment will work like Kickstarter - a very fast start - followed by hardly anyone voting - but last minute push aka KS is unlikely as it counts from 1st of June. With 100 more votes in 3 days - even looking at a push on the 1st we are unlikely to go (a lot) beyond 1000 on 1st of June - and 1500 total sounds a good number.
That leaves me to the next predictions - right now approx. 90% of votes are cast for the top 33 guilds. There isn't much (any more) to be gained by consolidation.
There is only 1 other guild with 3 votes that isn't in the top 40, 4 with 2 votes not in the top 40 and the remaining ones are all single votes.
But if 90% of votes currently are for settlements then this ratio likely will drop, rather than grow. That results in a give-and-take ratio of 2. Overall numbers will increase by 2 before the end of the land rush.
The count for Forgeholm was 19 when I gathered the numbers - so 40 seems a good estimate to get into the top 10 at the end of landrush.
The top 20 would be around 15 and you need 8 to gain a settlement at all - well - there are likely ties for the last spot.
It doesn't mean there is no movement at all. I expect 5 not even yet existing guilds to gain a settlement - one of them likely in the top 20 or even top 10. But there won't be loads and loads of new ones.
We will know more tomorrow. There are no new guilds approved since Friday - so numbers only declined (yes - I sneaked in last minute myself). So Tuesday will see a push with a few more groups for sure.
Beyond that - well - I would predict there will be individual guilds moving up a lot. Some guilds will stay at the count where they are now and they either have enough or will slowly move down the rank.
Comments welcome if you think where I go wrong - but please give some reasons why and what you think it should be instead.
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Goblin Squad Member
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Just a quick question, if only 30 of us are getting settlements (33 if you count the big 3 who already have 1) then why talk about "the top 40?" Or was that a typo?
I think you can make predictions all you want, but we won't know for sure till the end. My advice, recruit as much as you can through week 10, and monitor the boards constantly, at least once a day, to see where your settlement lies and who is gaining on you, and where your next "target" is to take their spot. I am sure there are those of us already doing this. As the weeks go, we will see some interesting things happen, I think anyway.
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Goblin Squad Member
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You could also look at the first land rush and see that its results were very close to your analysis above.
I think there will be more consolidation of small guilds in this land rush than in the first one and greater participation overall, but beyond that the results should be similar. I think a guild will need at least seven votes to secure one of the settlements, and probably more.
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My predictions are somewhere around:
Total Votes: 1,000-1,200
Top 10: 30+
Top 25: 12-15+
Cut Off: >10 8 sounds about right.
What could really change the landscape is the merges. How many of them will there be?
I'm guessing that about 10-15 Companies will fall off the list in the next few weeks, rather than be added. Once GW makes a more user friendly way to show your support and people can join their Chartered Companies independently to clear up the confusion about joining a "guild," I think we will see more people feeling comfortable enough to move in together.
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Goblin Squad Member
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What could really change the landscape is the merges. How many of them will there be?
Thus far there have been 92 'guild numbers' assigned. Guilds #1 - 3 have been MIA since the start and thus were probably created and then deleted by the devs as part of their production testing. There are 83 active guilds. That yields 92 - 83 - 3 = 6 guilds which have been created and then dropped out thus far. At least two of those merged into other guilds, and it seems likely that has been the case with most of the six. I'd expect this kind of activity to increase as the land rush goes on.
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Goblin Squad Member
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@Goodfellow
I talk about the top 40 as this is what you see (easily) on the goblinworks website. If you are not in the top 40 then you are out of sight pretty much
And yes - I'm watching the boards. I know how many more members I still expect to sign up sooner or later. But I wanted to know where does my expectation of total number likely lie at week 10.
We are up to spot 14 - not bad in such a short time - but not much scope ahead of us. Doubling our numbers brings us right now to spot 10 - and the time it takes to double them means spot 10+x.
At the same time if people double the numbers behind us we are down to 30 which would look uncomfortable and would be in a region where you hardly have any choice at all where to settle.
@CBDunkerson
Yes - landrush 1 might be a good reflection. But I didn't want to take it for a given. First of all you needed to be at the Guild level to place your hat into the ring - this doesn't seem the case anymore.
But this caused an interesting dilemma - do you have 763 votes total - or 1753 votes a guild level counted for nothing - you didn't have a vote for yourself - or to be more precise - you got some blind 6 votes.
Off course it will be MUCH more difficult to get all 6 to vote now that they are individual votes.
You could vote even without the right pledge - I only found out when I chased up one potential member that he/she had voted for me while only pledging at the $15 level.
And 2653 pledges at the $35 level are now no longer valid.
Having said all this - lets look how it compares:
Total votes 1753 (counting a guild level as 6)
Top 10: 18 votes (adding +6)
Top 20: 14 votes
Top 33: 12 votes (6 ignoring the +6)
So yes - landrush 1 might be a pretty good representation. The 'free 6 votes) make it difficult as the top 33 cutoff moves from 6 to 12 - but 8 is inside this range and the time delay will mean numbers are likely higher on one side and lower on the other.
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Goblin Squad Member
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What could really change the landscape is the merges. How many of them will there be?Thus far there have been 92 'guild numbers' assigned. Guilds #1 - 3 have been MIA since the start and thus were probably created and then deleted by the devs as part of their production testing. There are 83 active guilds. That yields 92 - 83 - 3 = 6 guilds which have been created and then dropped out thus far. At least two of those merged into other guilds, and it seems likely that has been the case with most of the six. I'd expect this kind of activity to increase as the land rush goes on.
So far growth has been a pretty linear slope. The question is how much will the #10-25 merge as they jockey for position. My prediction has always been that about 15 groups will pull away from the pack and not only have a settlement but a realistically large enough base to grow from and handle it.
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Goblin Squad Member
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I am wondering if we will still see a few big Guilds swoop in and take a few of the 1-15 spots. Ryans example of Goonswarm turning their Eye upon PFO and buying 4k accounts is probably not going to happen, but there may be others.
Having said this, you would expect them to start participating as soon as possible because of the weighted draftings, and not wait untill the last weeks. So *if* it happens they are probably Guilds that only learn about this game during the next 10 weeks and decide to give it a go. Even then they would have to create a real push within their Guilds for people to buy the 100 dollar package.
Does anyone know of large Guilds/Communities that are holding off for some reason? I am still expecting to see Steelwing and his corp show up, they may have lost interest though.
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Goblin Squad Member
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I am wondering if we will still see a few big Guilds swoop in and take a few of the 1-15 spots. Ryans example of Goonswarm turning their Eye upon PFO and buying 4k accounts is probably not going to happen, but there may be others.
Having said this, you would expect them to start participating as soon as possible because of the weighted draftings, and not wait untill the last weeks. So *if* it happens they are probably Guilds that only learn about this game during the next 10 weeks and decide to give it a go. Even then they would have to create a real push within their Guilds for people to buy the 100 dollar package.
Does anyone know of large Guilds/Communities that are holding off for some reason? I am still expecting to see Steelwing and his corp show up, they may have lost interest though.
With a $100 entry for what amounts to Beta of an under-the-radar title I think we will see beach head groups for large mega guilds but we will probably not see anybody show up 300 strong overnight. What you see is what there is for this land rush, just like it was for the 1st one.
Goblinworks Executive Founder
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My prediction is that by the second draft period, guilds will consolidate until there are ~40 "contenders" with a minimum of 16 votes, followed by small guilds that didn't consolidate, with significantly fewer votes, perhaps a maximum of 9.
Guilds below the payout point will realize that they can consolidate with each other to get into the "money", which will knock the lowest nomconsolidated guilds to the point that they need to consolidate or recruit.
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Goblin Squad Member
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My prediction is that by the second draft period, guilds will consolidate until there are ~40 "contenders" with a minimum of 16 votes, followed by small guilds that didn't consolidate, with significantly fewer votes, perhaps a maximum of 9.
Guilds below the payout point will realize that they can consolidate with each other to get into the "money", which will knock the lowest nomconsolidated guilds to the point that they need to consolidate or recruit.
We're recruiting as fast as we can! My bloody compatriots are too wrapped up in real life to sense my impending sense of doom over being a group of one.
On that note, if a person has moved over to GW, they can no longer upgrade to the guild package? Is that correct, or am I missing something?
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Goblin Squad Member
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Been working on a little model to predict this number (see previous posts if you want details). So far it's working well, but time will tell.
Still waiting to see if there's a kickstarter-esque slowdown midway, but for now here's a look at how the total number of votes is shaping up. I didn't get this set up right away so vote totals don't start at the beginning of the rush. I'm not bothering to track individual 'guilds' as I know others are doing so.
Timezone is set to be in sync with GW. Total votes does not count applicants.
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Goblin Squad Member
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Been working on a little model to predict this number (see previous posts if you want details). So far it's working well, but time will tell.
Still waiting to see if there's a kickstarter-esque slowdown midway, but for now here's a look at how the total number of votes is shaping up. I didn't get this set up right away so vote totals don't start at the beginning of the rush. I'm not bothering to track individual 'guilds' as I know others are doing so.
Timezone is set to be in sync with GW. Total votes does not count applicants.
I love this !!
Some more data in exchange
I try to do a snapshot each morning (UK time) - here is the development (it is 10 hours out of date !!)
Biggest movers are Mystic Awakening and Freevale (still in my data as Blunt Logic).
Prophecy and Torchbearers ceased (Prophecy moved to another guild - need to update my notes).
The lower number for Golgotha is due to removal of votes of members planning to live in Aeternum.
I also added the LR1 votes. This is a number that has to be treated carefully. You should add +6 in principle to each guild which I haven't added. If some settlements are formed by multiple guilds from LR1 then I added the numbers from all of them.
I try to keep track of name changes and mergers but only looked up the top 20 so far or the obvious ones.
? in LR 1 means I haven't yet bothered to look them up.
There are some 20 new settlements / guilds since the morning. So lets see which of them make it in to the top 40. Interesting that this morning 2 !! members was enough to cling to spot 40.
Happy for any corrections.
Guild or Settlement LR1 ~ 0526 ~ 0527 Comment
The Empyrean Order 120 105 106 The Empyrean Order
Pax Golgotha na 64 57 active since August 2013 as Golgotha
Pax Aeternum 79 53 56 Pax Aeternum
The Seventh Veil 64 50 53 T7V (61) joined by Deathwatch (3)
Keepers of the Circle 36 48 48 Keepers of the Circle
Ozem's Vigil 21 35 35 Through Vigilance (12) + Full Metal Syndicate (Gayme0n 9)
Magistry 8 29 31 Magistry
Dagedai Alliance 4 30 30 Audacity (Go Rin No Sho 4)
Settlement: Aragon (CN) 0 22 24 UNC and Vigilante (0)
Forgeholm 0 19 19 Deepforge Company (founded just after LR1)
Hammerfall 7 16 16 Hearthguard (6) + Marsh Wardens (1)
Mystical Awakening 12 9 15 Mystical Awakening
The Golden Flask new 13 14 The Golden Flask (not in LR1)
Eastern Sun 6 11 11 Eastern Sun
Blunt Logic new 5 10 joined by Stonebear clan
Hammerfist Clan 9 9 10 Hammerfist Clan
The Phoenix Brotherhood 1 7 10 The Phoenix Brotherhood
Thod's Friends 6 10 10 Thod's Friends - PFS UK
Taur-im-Duinath 14 9 9 Taur-im-Duinath
Agents of Erastil 6 8 8 Agents of Erastil
Dragonblade Mercenaries ? 7 7
Dreamchasers ? 7 7
Grim Maw Clan 6 7 7 Grim Maw Clan
The Gauntlet ? 6 7
vVv Gaming ? 6 7
Librarians of Doom ? 6 6
Otium Explorator ? 6 6
Les Compagnons 23 5 5 Les Compagnons
Storm Wardens ? 5 5
The Bastard Sons of Daggermark 2 5 5 The Bastard Sons of Daggermark
Aseveljet 10 4 4 Aseveljet
Green Mountain Militia ? 4 4
Inner Sea Trading Company ? 4 4
Phantasmagoria ? 4 4
Principal Gods ? 4 4
The Bluebox Society ? 4 4
Eternity Council ? - 4
Inconnu 12 3 3
Order of the Dragon Turtle ? 3 3
Lost Ledger ? - 2
Prophecy ? 3 -
The Torchbearers ? 3 -
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Goblin Squad Member
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The lower number for Golgotha is due to removal of votes that were done for Pax Aeternum in LR1.
To be clear, the votes that we removed weren't those that were used for Aeternum in LR1; We have been absolute about that fact. Any members of our community that voted for Aeturnum in LR1 voted for them again in LR2. The votes that were removed from Golgotha in the last few days were those that did not vote for Aeturnum in LR1, but do intent to live there during EE. It may seem like a small distinction, but I believe that it is an important one. We were still in the wrong, just not in that way.
Cool numbers though. Really interesting to see where the growth is.
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Goblin Squad Member
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Nihimon mentioned someone in T7V is tracking individual guilds as well, so perhaps you guys can combine info.
My data is essentially a list every hour of:
*unix time (chopping off fractions of a second)
*last pick's number of votes
*my prediction of what the last pick has (based on assuming a decay function distribution of votes)
*total votes
*total guilds
I could add a handful of variables fairly easily if someone has good suggestions, but more than 15 total would require a minor rewrite of the code. (ROOT TNtuples are hardcoded for a max of 15 variables and I'd have to convert to using TTrees instead.)
Remember when looking at the list not to look at 30th place to see who gets last pick, but rather 33rd as three guilds in the list aren't really competing.
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Goblin Squad Member
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The lower number for Golgotha is due to removal of votes that were done for Pax Aeternum in LR1.To be clear, the votes that we removed weren't those that were used for Aeternum in LR1; We have been absolute about that fact. Any members of our community that voted for Aeturnum in LR1 voted for them again in LR2. The votes that were removed from Golgotha in the last few days were those that did not vote for Aeturnum in LR1, but do intent to live there during EE. It may seem like a small distinction, but I believe that it is an important one. We were still in the wrong, just not in that way.
Cool numbers though. Really interesting to see where the growth is.
Thanks for the correction - I hope the new wording is more precise. Sorry if I misinterpreted it. Trying to summarize a 400 post thread in a single sentence is difficult.
I didn't wanted to throw oil on the fire but tried to do the opposite.Yes - it was really eye opening for myself to see where the growth has been.
Golgatha, Magistry and Dagedai have done fantastic. Settlement Aragon fills a space that needed to be filled.
Of notice is - all of these have been very active here.
Of interest are the groups that are still far behind potential. Have they lost steam or will they get a late boost.
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Goblin Squad Member
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Nihimon mentioned someone in T7V is tracking individual guilds as well, so perhaps you guys can combine info.
Wszebor Uriev (Wiz) is tracking guild vote totals daily at (roughly) noon (not sure which Time Zone). I'll point him at this thread and see if y'all can combine data for even more Fun with Math :)
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Goblin Squad Member
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I'm surprised non of the 20 new guilds has managed yet to get into the top 40. 4 members is all that is needed and you would have expected that some guilds tried submitted Saturday and could have people waiting to join ...
Maybe still too early in the day. But this is a sign that there will be less relative movement as there could be.
I'm hoping some of the smaller communities will band together to form mid sized settlements that can participate more meaningfully in the landrush. This would be good for the health of the game in my opinion, more competition at the top and mid end of the leaderboard can only bring a healthy level to the balance of power.
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Goblin Squad Member
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@PotatoMcWhiskey, agreed. I wonder how effective those smaller groups can be if they need to hold POIS and Outposts; I think they will need to band together before the end of the land rush, join one of the top 33, or plan on working as an ally. I salute their optimism in any case.
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Goblin Squad Member
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I'm hoping some of the smaller communities will band together to form mid sized settlements that can participate more meaningfully in the landrush.
So far eight guilds have dropped off the land rush list. At least four of those did so because they were merging with another group. I expect this will continue, especially after the first draft takes place on Sunday.
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Goblin Squad Member
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I think I see an error in the prediction;
You have used the typical voter turnout of EU elections, to predict how many Kickstarter backers will turn up to post a vote in the GW Land Rush.
Trouble with that, is that low numbers of voters turn out for the real life election, for a variety of reasons; they feel disenfranchised, neither party appeals, or a practical reason, such as the weather, can't get time off work/childcare.
With this poll, you're talking about people who already bought into the Early Enrolment, so they have a personal stake in the result. (Or more of a stake than they feel they have in voting for one of several interchangeable MEPs.)
They can form their own guild, if none of the existing ones appeal; far easier than standing for EU election, or setting up your own party.
They can vote online; negating the problems of getting to a polling station, or misplacing their polling card.
There's also the fact that the voting takes place over a longer period, with regular updates. As opposed to a real election, whose result is only known after the polls have closed, and half the population goes "Oh, no! Not that asshat! I wish I'd made more effort to vote!".
Therefore, I think your estimates are on the low side.
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Goblin Squad Member
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I was wondering what will happen to the balance of power when EE gets going. 30 or so settlements , Ryan said they plan to run the player base up to 20k in 3 to 4 months. So it seems unlikely that will get spread evenly. People will go for the big settlements I should think, the little guys could be in bad shape if they have 100 members and their hostile neighbor has 500.
I have to wonder if an forced kingdom building will go on, conquest by diplomacy but still you would have to surrender or get pummelled all the time. The idea that we wont be able to conquer other settlements until siege warfare may not be true.
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Goblin Squad Member
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I thought I heard my ears buzzing, but I'd assumed that was simply Cayden's blessing from the ale...
Yes, for some inexplicable reason I decided to cull the data at noon every day Eastern Daylight Time. I don't always get it at noon.. but an hour give or take in each direction.
I also missed most of the first week, so I don't have a complete tally. Which annoys my OCDedness. I suspect the devs could cull that data from the central repository, but I don't want to bother them with such trivialities.
Anyway, I keep the data as a google doc here:
Land rush totals
Anyone should be able to take that data and make a copy of it. On page two is a graph of the (current) top 20 and their votes over time. Currently it looks like an exponential curve that is flattening out. I expect each round will look like an exponential curve stacked on top of the previous total. Of course in subsequent ones, the curve will be quite sharp (as most people will let their votes just roll over). Regardless, feel free to copy the data for whatever math modeling you want. I'm content with keeping the raw data.
And I'll end with a shameless, shameless plug for The Seventh Veil which is my home. Helping the community and having fun doing it!
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Goblin Squad Member
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The citizens of Freevale have really come together to form a great group of people working hard on the settlement. To avoid confusion our name has been officially changed to Freevale on the Leaderboard.
We are eager to show that a CN settlement, being home to completely unrelated Companies and Free Agents, is not only possible but exceptional. Anyone with an interest should stop by for a visit.
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Goblin Squad Member
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So if turnout at something as important (or unimportant) as European Parliament is at 13-50% then this gives us a bracket from 10-50% for PF (it seems the offial number across all of Europe is 43%).
I disagree with your assumptions here, and would expect a higher (50-70+)% turnout.
The turnout rate among voters who are actually members of a party are significantly higher, I would guess 90%+. IMO this should suggest that the LR2 voting rate for anyone associated with a guild should be quite high. And there is a clear incentive for guilds to recruit very actively during the LR2 period.There are also other mechanisms that suggests higher turnout rates than in political elections: small constituency, internet voting, issue that directly affects voters/voting for yourself, and tangible benefit in moving up the ranks whether you are near top or bottom. I also think it increases last-minute turnouts that you can see (roughly) how many votes are needed to make a difference in the next count.
Finally, I predict that there are a lot of KS backers who will turn their attention back to the game once EE date in announced, so that I expect a push in the last few weeks.
EDIT: in other words, pretty much what Snorter said above
EDIT2: the Belgium thingie: well, they have both compulsory voting and the EU HQ.
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Goblin Squad Member
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Snorter, Randomwalker
We will see. A lot depends on Goblinwords and how much they remind people to vote in upcoming e-mails. I still think numbers will be well below 50% as my experience of twisting arms to vote for me tells me that there are a lot of apathic people who contributed.
These are people who I emailed personally or even phoned - and they still haven't given me a vote and not because they want to give the vote to someone else or found a lodge of their own.
These are 50% of people I know personally. I will try to get this vote to 70-80% as these should be votes for my settlement - but I can't see the general public getting voting that much.
There are organized groups that will have 90% or more. But it is like PFS - there are many, many more Pathfinder players as there are PFS players and if you only count the number of PFS players who posted at least once on the boards and the number will dwindle further.
I'm happy to be corrected - but this is why I think numbers will rather be closer to 25% as to 60%.
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Goblin Squad Member
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I agree with Thod. I sometimes wonder what moves people to pledge in a Kickstarter. Sure, stuff can change in your real life in 18 months so that picking up on that EE pledge right now is not feasible. Some may just have hit their first (or umptieth) bout of being completely fed up/jaded about anything MMO(we know it happens).
But I think it also has to do with the thrill that can be a good kickstarter. And it *was* a good Kickstarter. I am not talking about false promises or unwarranted hype: I am talking about how much fun it can be to (literally) buy into *other* people's enthusiasm. And there is plenty of that to go around with a well done KS.
And it could be that some of these people aren't actually that interested after all in a MMO such as Pathfinder. Or even a MMO, period. Amongst these people are likely the ones that were thinking they were buying into something that matched a vision *they* had in their minds: and not necessarily did a good job of informing themselves what PFO was to be all about, exept that it would be part of the Pathfinder IP.
I think GW has not strayed one bit so far from the original concept that they presented on the KS; so I would think any disappointment with the current course would have to be due to misconception during the KS phase. Even the concept of a hybrid Subs/MTX monetization was mentioned at the KS, if I recall correctly. Though the MTX part will still have to be handled carefully. It is one of those things that could create a lot of backlash.
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Goblin Squad Member
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I expect that final results will be heavily influenced by when EE launches. Keep in mind that there are going to be ten weekly land rush drafts... which means the last should be August 3rd. Start of EE is currently targeted for July. If that's early July then there'd be about a month of in-game recruiting and organization, which would feed back in to the land rush significantly. If it is late July or even delayed into August then the land rush will likely remain relatively small due to difficulties coordinating people through the Goblinworks site.
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Goblin Squad Member
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@CBDunkerson
AGREED !! My numbers assume that the game isn't yet started. Numbers will go up A LOT once it starts as players not pledged will have a much higher incentive.
I doubt they manage to get EE as early as early July - some posts seem that a lot is still unfinished and you want to give the Alpha backers something worthwhile for their money. But I can be wrong.
More reason to get numbers up now and have a slot prior to the start as it is 'easier' that way.
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Goblin Squad Member
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I've yet to hit that voting button, but I've been encouraged by the postings from Decius, that we can be members of a small group, and not lose out on a settlement, if we form a coalition with other small, like-minded groups.
I think the explanation of the Land Rush process has been unclear, over the definition of 'guild'.
This has led people to believe they have to join the larger Companies, to have a chance of starting in a settlement, but that doesn't appear to be the case.
Am I right, that the government of a settlement could be made up of representatives from all the inhabitants, who each get to keep their original 'microguild' identity and manifesto?
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Goblin Squad Member
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Am I right, that the government of a settlement could be made up of representatives from all the inhabitants, who each get to keep their original 'microguild' identity and manifesto?
Yes. We're doing something like this with Freevale. Ryan posted yesterday with some details on the different types of management structures they are planning for.
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Goblin Squad Member
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For instance, it would make sense that each of the Companies in a Settlement is represented in a Settlement Leadership Council, and GW is facilitating exactly such setups. They even allow for Settlement members that are *not* part of any Company, to take place in such an official settlement-governing body.
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Goblin Squad Member
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This has led people to believe they have to join the larger Companies, to have a chance of starting in a settlement, but that doesn't appear to be the case.
Am I right, that the government of a settlement could be made up of representatives from all the inhabitants, who each get to keep their original 'microguild' identity and manifesto?
I think many or most settlements, at least in EE, will have some measure of democracy (individual votes) or republican ideals (every company votes). Brighthaven was proposed, back in October, along those lines as well - it's being founded by one of the large companies.
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Goblin Squad Member
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Am I right, that the government of a settlement could be made up of representatives from all the inhabitants, who each get to keep their original 'microguild' identity and manifesto?
(Currently under the stewardship of Erastil's Irregulars) is leaning toward a council of:
3 members elected from all the citizens
3 members selected by the 1) Companies 2) Clergy and 3) Diplomats and merchants
1 absolute dictator who's only power is to break ties and accept/reject the selections of the 3 non-elected reps
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Goblin Squad Member
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Here is an updated list. I take snapshots each morning UK time.
More complete data and in a nicer format is generated by Wszebor Uriev. I ignore anything not in the top 40.
Some trends that slowly show. There is only one guild/settlement that in the top 20 for which I couldn't find some history going back to LR1.
New votes are slow. The daily additional votes from 27th onwards are +22, +29, +11, +46. This is just on average below single vote per guild per day. So don't expect large movements via additional votes. There just isn't enough time left for these and as recruiter for my own guild I know how tough it is to convince just a single member to join if he isn't already pledged to you in spirit.
The biggest movements come from consolidation. For example Aragon just got a large boost from the Grim Maw Clan. So assuming there are no large dark horses or surprising consolidations (Ozem and Fidelis I look to you) here are the races to look out for.
Place 4/5 is a close race betwwen Pax Golgotha and Keepers of the Circle. It seemed a given for Golgotha but the Keeper might just sneak ahead (and yes - any of these could end up on 3 and replace Pax Aeternum - but that doesn't really matter apart of bragging rights.
Place 3 - This seemed a two way competition between Ozem and Magistry with Magistry looking like the most likely winner. The Grim Maw Clan joining Aragon suddenly made it a possible 3 way race. Fidelis supporting Ozem suddenly might turn them into favourites. Dagedai is an unlikely outsider in this race. They seemed to be stuck on 30 members - but there has been some extra members in the last 24 hours.
Forgeholm and Hammerfall are neck on neck for a while now. This likely will be decided by one or two members.
From Mystical Awakening to Les Compagnons is a tight field. Les Compagnons seem the most steady for me. They had the highest LR1 vote of all of these. But time is running out and I expect them rather slowly to grow and not to jump.
Beyond that point isn't much happening. The surprise over night was The Vigilant - I'm confused as there is a group with the same name that joined Aragon.
Are there some last minute mergers to jump up. What will happen past 1st June when the map with locations will be displayed for the first time.
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Guild or Settlement LR1 ~ 0526 ~ 0527 ~0528 ~0529 ~0530 Comment
The Empyrean Order 120 105 106 111 112 121 The Empyrean Order
Pax Aeternum 79 53 56 59 59 59 Pax Aeternum
The Seventh Veil 64 50 53 53 54 58 T7V (61) joined by Deathwatch (3)
Pax Golgotha 5 64 57 59 55 56 active since August 2013 as Golgotha, May 2013 Crimson Guard and contains Maelstrom LR1 (5)
Keepers of the Circle 36 48 48 49 50 52 Keepers of the Circle
Magistry 8 29 31 34 35 39 Magistry
Ozem's Vigil 21 35 35 35 34 37 Through Vigilance (12) + Full Metal Syndicate (Gayme0n 9) joined by Fidelis 0529
Settlement: Aragon (CN) 6 22 24 25 25 34 UNC and Vigilante (0) - joined by Grim Maw Clan (6) 0529
Dagedai Alliance 4 30 30 30 31 34 Audacity (Go Rin No Sho 4)
Forgeholm no LR1 19 19 19 19 21 Deepforge Company (founded just after LR1)
Hammerfall 7 16 16 19 21 21 Hearthguard (6) + Marsh Wardens (1)
Mystical Awakening 12 9 15 16 16 16 Mystical Awakening
The Golden Flask - pre LR1 but no guild forger account no LR1 13 14 14 15 15 The Golden Flask - pre LR1 but no guild forger account
Thod's Friends 6 10 10 10 10 13 Thod's Friends - PFS UK
Freevale no LR1 5 10 11 11 12 joined by Stonebear clan 0526
The Phoenix Brotherhood 1 7 10 12 12 12 The Phoenix Brotherhood (1) joined by torchbearers
Eastern Sun 6 11 11 11 11 11 Eastern Sun
Hammerfist Clan 9 9 10 11 11 11 Hammerfist Clan
vVv Gaming ? 6 7 7 7 10
Taur-im-Duinath 14 9 9 9 9 10 Taur-im-Duinath
Les Compagnons 23 5 5 7 8 9 Les Compagnons
Dreamchasers ? 7 7 7 7 8
Agents of Erastil 6 8 8 8 8 8 Agents of Erastil
The Gauntlet 1 6 7 8 8 8 The Gauntlet
Dragonblade Mercenaries 11 7 7 7 7 7 Dragonblade Mercenaries
The Vigilant 0 - - - - 6 The Vigilant
Brains and Brawn 1 - - 3 6 6 Brains and Brawn
Librarians of Doom ? 6 6 6 6 6
Otium Explorator ? 6 6 6 6 6
Principal Gods 6 4 4 6 6 6 Principal Gods
Green Mountain Militia ? 4 4 4 5 5
Reading Between the Lines - - - 5 5
Storm Wardens 1 5 5 5 5 5 Stormwardens
The Bastard Sons of Daggermark 2 5 5 5 5 5 The Bastard Sons of Daggermark
Aseveljet 10 4 4 4 4 4 Aseveljet
Eternity Council 0 - 4 4 4 4 Eternity Council
Inner Sea Trading Company 4 4 4 4 4 4 Inner Sea Trading Company
Phantasmagoria ? 4 4 4 4 4
The Bluebox Society ? 4 4 4 4 4
The Iron Gauntlet 7 - - - 4 4 The Iron Gauntlet
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Goblin Squad Member
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I thought I necro this thread as we are getting close to the day of reckoning
We haven't even reached 1st of June - isn't it dangerous to predict how many votes you need to get a settlement during the landrush?
Well - maybe - but there is a very good base to extrapolate from.
Here are the predictions
total number of votes cast: 1500
Members needed to reach the top 10: 40
Minimum members needed to get a settlement: 8
Members needed to stay inside the top 40: 6
So how are we doing - please keep in mind the predictions had been done before the results from the first week of the landrush even were announced.
With hindsight it is easy to say - off course. Some posters agreed - others felt they would be wrong by a long way.Data just gathered now and should be valid for Week 8 results
total number of votes: 1492
Members needed to reach the top 10: 39 Tavernhold (#9) and 34 Kabal (#10) with 33 for Blackwood Gate (#11)
Minimum member for a settlement: 7 (Four River Kingdoms)
Members needed to stay in the top 40: 6 Aurora Vanguard
I'm quite proud how well the predictions worked. Still 2 weeks to go - but I'm not expecting huge surprises if I was able to predict this 8 weeks ago.
I guess the 1500 will be topped with some late votes. But new votes have become a trickle. Maybe GW sends out a reminder to the KS mailing list which could get a few more. That will make the difference between 1520 and maybe 1580 or even 1600+
Members needed for the top 10 - pretty much correct - not sure if 40 will be top 10 or 9 or 11 - but that is beyond the point
Interesting is the number of members needed for a settlement. I did expect I was too low inbetween - but this week that number actually wend DOWN ... Consolidation ...
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Goblin Squad Member
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Yeah, I thought the minimum number for a settlement would have gone up, a lot! But due to consolidation it has gone down 3-4. Those humble little settlements will really struggle early on, but if they can hold on through the first couple of months they might get enough new recruits to stay alive. Should be interesting.
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Goblin Squad Member
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I'd set a semi-hard line of 30 people for week 7, which is why Elkhaven is moving to Ozem's. I'm pretty confident that we could have had a settlement on day one, but am not at all confident that (other than concealed members) anyone with less than that today is going to be happy when the settlement reset happens.
