A lot of the other threads have been bandying about the 25k downloads that Alpha has gotten so far, and somehow construing that to a fanbase. Of course, Alpha and Beta are both FREE downloads! Getting something for free and paying ~$40US for something (i.e. PFRPG when it comes out) are two different animals.
I guess my question is: What percentage of 25,000 downloads will actually translate into sales for Paizo? My guess would be 10-20%, but it's just that - a guess. I'm not a businessman and know next to nothing about sales, so I will pose the question to the community.
FWIW, I have Beta pre-ordered at my FLGS and plan on buying PFRPG when it comes out.
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Id be willing to bet closer to 125% then 10-20%.
Why?
In my household we have 2 PM and 2 DMG's for 3.5
Im willing to bet Im not alone.
There will be several that will get multiple copies.
There will be several that only get one copy.
There will be many that do not buy the final product.
But without a doubt, there will be many more who have not downloaded the Alpha, but plan on looking at the Beta...More importantly as Home Campaigns switch to Pathfinder, the players will buy the product....that will easily mean more sales than those that downloaded the alpha and said...no thanks....IMHO
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I'm pretty sure that Paizo can sell 5,000 units easy.
I'm going to guess that they'll sell 15,000 units within the first 6 months. I have no idea of their projections or their numbers, and these guesses may be wildly off, but I do have some basis for them - though certianly nothing solid.
What do you think?
I'll be buying a print copy of the Beta, and will purchase the final book when it comes out next year. My guess is that at least two of my gaming group will want copies of their own. That said, our little microcosm shows 50% of those who've downloaded the free Alpha pdfs will be putting our money in Paizo's hands. Is this an accurate representation of the larger community? I'd certainly like to think so...
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i've downloaded each of the alphas, do they all count towards the total?
i've already got the softcover beta on order (waiting for something else on backorder before they ship, i think) and wll more than likely buy two or three copies of the final rules next year (one for me, one for the gf, and one to have as a "table" reference for guest players).
i just hope that paizo exceeds expectations, i want these guys around for a long time...
for the record, i downloaded the free alphas and the free modules a few months ago, but really didn't get a chance to look at them until a little over a month ago. what i read made me subscribe to their products. they hooked me on free, reeled me in on quality. i love the way these guys do business...
While the PFRPG book itself is important, it is not Paizo's main thrust of their business. Their main thrust is adventure paths. If they loose money on the core book, but continue to make a profit on the adventure paths, then all is still good.
Having said that, I have serious doubts believing that the PFRPG will loose money. It might not make them much, when all is said and done, but the point of the book is to keep the rules in print, not to sell well enough to keep the company afloat for the next three years.
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I know that in our group there will be at least 4 of us buying both the Beta rules, Campaign Setting, and the final rules. I know there are multiple copies of various Pathfinder Chronicles and modules in our group as well. I for one am the only one with a subscription to the Adv. Path. There is one other in our group talking about getting a subscription. I would also add that with the exception of my Pathfinder Subscription, everything else has been purchased at the FLGS. As long as we keep buying it they will keep stocking it. In fact it's gotten to the point that they don't have anything right now because my group and a few other folks we've been talking to have bought them out. We're hoping that Thursday they will have a whole new selection of books. Hopefully the Campaign Setting and Beta rules?! I have no idea if they will be available retail this week. I know the manager at the FLGS will be glad to get some more product in. He won't have to listen to us ask him AGAIN when they were getting more product in. We are Paizo/Pathfinder converts 100%. It's safe to say that there will never be another WotC product on our shelves again.
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I agree with the assessment that the sales should at least equal the downloads - my group has 5 copies of the PHB, 4 DMGS, 4 MMs, and most of the splatbooks each. Throw in 3.0 stuff. In other words, a free pdf gets passed around a group after 1 download, but a book is mostly for 1 or 2 people.
I also want to add that PRPG is intended as a viable replacement for the 3rd Edition crowd. In other words, when stores clear out 3rd Ed stock, PRPG will replace it, so initial sales aren't necessarily Paizo's main goal - they need sustainability.
In addition, PRPG is only the starting point - a hook, if you will, to sell the other Paizo product lines. The main business model remains adventures and fluff books. PRPG just keeps people playing the system Paizo currently uses to publish their awesome stuff.
I think that the only thing 25,000 downloads shows is that there is a number of people somewhere under 25,000 who are interested in seeing what Paizo is doing with it.
Why under 25,000? Because there are now 3 versions of the alpha. Not everybody who downloaded Alpha 1 downloaded Alpha 2 & 3. Same is true with Alphas 2 & 3. Some people probably downloaded the same version of the alpha more than once because they deleted it, had a hard drive crash, bought a new computer, or insert your own reasons.
Of the people who downloaded it, some will be interested, some will not be interested, some will buy the beta, some will buy the final, some will buy multiple copies of both. It's really hard to say based on downloads alone how the final will sell.
The one thing I am certain of is that 25,000 downloads means that there is decent awareness of Pathfinder RPG.
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Why under 25,000? Because there are now 3 versions of the alpha. Not everybody who downloaded Alpha 1 downloaded Alpha 2 & 3. Same is true with Alphas 2 & 3. Some people probably downloaded the same version of the alpha more than once because they deleted it, had a hard drive crash, bought a new computer, or insert your own reasons.
I think the "unique downloads" means that 25,000 accounts have downloaded at least one version of the alpha. In other words, if you download twice, it still only counts as once unless you make a new account for each download.
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I have no idea if I am any indication but I bought like 6 or 8 (can't remember now) of the Beta rules because I want to introduce both my groups to the rules and we are going to be playing them. My first group is play RotR and we will be done in a couple of months. My second group just started CotCT. They created their characters with the Alpha rules and we will adjust them next session after I get the Beta rules and can hand them out.
Now, does that translate to at least some of them buying the final set of rules? I bet it does. If it doesn't I will buy two or three myself so we can have more than one at the table when we are playing...
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RPG Superstar 2014 Top 16, RPG Superstar 2012 Top 16
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I think the "unique downloads" means that 25,000 accounts have downloaded at least one version of the alpha. In other words, if you download twice, it still only counts as once unless you make a new account for each download.This would be supported by the following quote from further up this page:
No. You as an individual count once toward the total.
I think the "unique downloads" means that 25,000 accounts have downloaded at least one version of the alpha. In other words, if you download twice, it still only counts as once unless you make a new account for each download.
You do have to be logged in to download the current Alpha, don't you?
D'oh!
I guess this is more hopeful than I was prepared to admit then.
From my experience with selling things vs. free (from working/owning a store), I'd agree with the 10%-20%, sadly. People will rush to grab something free, but they're a bit more stingy about buying something.
I'd be happy to be wrong, but I think it would be wise, for the Paizo folks at least, to be cautious.
Also, the alphas look very nice too me, but I'd rather stay with 3.5e than Pathfinder. And there are probably many more who downloaded and read it, but don't intend to switch and buy the books.
So making sales prognosis based on alpha downloads is very vague at best.
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A lot of work's been done on the price elasticity of particular types of products, of which free -> non-free is a special case (there's often quite a discontinuity between free and 1 cent). The elasticity/conversion rate varies a lot from one product type to another. I'm not aware of any analysis of free-electonic -> non-free-dead-tree conversion rate/elasticity, it's simply too new.
Factors affecting it may include things like -- high saturation niche, small shared-group size (probably averaging 1-3 copies in a group of half a dozen), max 1 copy per individaul, significant difference in price, significant difference in ease of purchase, etc.
Chief Creative Officer, Publisher
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We are very proud of the number of people who have given the Pathfinder RPG a try, but we are not using the download number in our sales predictions. As Darrin said above, all it really does is reassure us that we have done everything we can to get the word out there.
I am flying to Gen Con tomorrow morning, and in a few days (after the Beta books go on sale at the show) I will have first-hand knowledge of how things are going. I already know about pre-orders (highest Paizo book paizo.com pre-order ever) and sales to hobby stores (strong), but I am looking forward to seeing what happens in person.
At the show we'll also be launching our new organized play program, which I trust will eventually help us sell some books.
I have to say that's the one thing I'd probably love the most of your job. Traveling the world and meeting people from very different places who love your work.
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I already know about pre-orders (highest Paizo book paizo.com pre-order ever) and sales to hobby stores (strong), but I am looking forward to seeing what happens in person.
Quick query, what's Paizo's preference -- people buy direct from you (you make a bit more money from that one sale), or people buy from FLGS (improves perception of Paizo products in the FLGS, so potentially more Paizo product is stocked in future)?
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I have to say that's the one thing I'd probably love the most of your job. Traveling the world and meeting people from very different places who love your work.
Or as it may be put -- getting paid to go to Gencon/Worldcon/etc :)
Worldcon, Indy, Gencon UK... bbcaddict will probably have forgotten what Erik looks like before long.
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Among my players, only 1 person prefers the .pdf to a hardcover/softcover.
I think it's less an issue of prefering electronic to hardcopy than the proportion of players who (want/need to) buy a particular book. For example among the group of six I play with I believe only 3 have the FR campaign setting although we primarily play in the FR.
A lot of people who play in a given setting don't particularly care a lot about the setting, in many games the worlds are fairly interchangeable. Certainly in some cases most or all of a group may be dedicated fans of a setting, but I suspect in the average group as many aren't as are.
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...have been bandying about the...
There's nothing to bandy about. 25K is huge and is only the beginning. All of us are telling our players and friends about Pathfinder RPG. The point isn't the number or the sales - heck, this is just the operating system to a game, what matters is the SHIFT, going forward, to PAIZO, not wotc, and that my friend is the beauty of the open-game-movement that is just now beginning anew. (It sends a strong message to wotc when a community ralleys around a company that creates high quality products & treats its customers well.)
Amazing things will happen, and the future looks very bright for 3.5/OGL/PRPG.
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25K is huge and is only the beginning. All of us are telling our players and friends about Pathfinder RPG. The point isn't the number or the sales - heck, this is just the operating system to a game, what matters is the SHIFT, going forward, to PAIZO, not wotc, and that my friend is the beauty of the open-game-movement that is just now beginning anew. (It sends a strong message to wotc when a community ralleys around a company that creates high quality products & treats its customers well.)
I'd be surprised if the numbers are quite as positive as you're suggesting.
I don't believe either Paizo or WotC have released the actual numbers concerned, and obviously there are many different sales channels (not least electronic download in the case of Paizo) but let's make one simple comparison between the Amazon sales ranks of probably one of the highest selling Pathfinder book (the Gazetteer) and probably the lowest selling of the first-four 4ed publications (the intro adventure "keep on the shadowfell"). The Gazetteer's currently #253,143 on amazon.com, and Keep on the Shadowfell's currently #2478. That's two orders of magnitude difference in sales rank (not number of sales etc).
Obviously there are a tonne of other factors, but by this one particular measure one of the lowest selling 4ed products is beating one of the highest selling Pathfinder products by a very significant margin. It's obviously not the be-all and end-all, but it's an indicator.
I'm very positive about Pathfinder and really hope it does well; but the shift you mention from WotC to Paizo is the same as the shift from Windows PCs to Macs or Linux. Getting a small slice of a big pie is great, but it's still only a small slice.
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RPG Superstar 2009 Top 32, 2010 Top 8
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But it just needs to be a small slice.
Paizo isn't WotC, and it's definately not Hasbro. While I'm sure Lisa & Co would prefer it to be the former, on some levels, they don't need to be #2413 on Amazon. I think Pathfinder will do well. I will buy at least one copy of the final, the beta is on preorder, and I expect to buy more than one of Final (makes a great Christmas Gift!)
Or to paraphrase the Architect "There are levels of survival we are willing to accept.
The Gazetteer's currently #253,143 on amazon.com, and Keep on the Shadowfell's currently #2478. That's two orders of magnitude difference in sales rank (not number of sales etc).
While I don't believe the number of downloads is going to reflect actual sales, you're right that there are more factors to it than Amazon's stats. Most folks wishing to buy Pathfinder products online are probably more likely to do so directly from Paizo.com. Not to mention a good slice of them are bound to be subscribers anyway.
Id be willing to bet closer to 125% then 10-20%.
Why?
In my household we have 2 PM and 2 DMG's for 3.5
Im willing to bet Im not alone.
Agreed. I downloaded 1 copy of the Alpha, but am purchasing 2 print copies of the Beta (one for me as DM, one for my players).
From my experience with selling things vs. free (from working/owning a store), I'd agree with the 10%-20%, sadly. People will rush to grab something free, but they're a bit more stingy about buying something.
I'd be happy to be wrong, but I think it would be wise, for the Paizo folks at least, to be cautious.
Hi Twin - I think Paizo probably based their print order more on the pre-orders than the downloads (semi-confirmed by Erik above).
Myself I'm getting 2, but I had two groups sign up and download it themselves (about 6+ others), and I doubt all of them will get a Beta. It'd be interesting to know the total after 6 months or a year, but I doubt we'll get to find out.
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(highest Paizo book paizo.com pre-order ever)
That in itself tells us something, since their business essentially began with the AP model. The fact that more people have preordered the PRPG than any of the AP books is huge - it means the customer base is expanding, and for something much more expensive.
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Yes, and this is but a stepping stone. *puts crystal ball on table*...I truly believe you will see a dynamic shift within the next year as more 'groups' begin playing the Beta....
This will be the selling point and the draw to get where I think its going...Like I said I wouldnt at all be surprised if the first 3 month figures of sales for the actual product are 125% of the the 25,000 downloads.
This will be the selling point and the draw to get where I think its going...Like I said I wouldnt at all be surprised if the first 3 month figures of sales for the actual product are 125% of the the 25,000 downloads.
What I will be far more interested in is the sales figures for their core product (the Pathfinder adventure paths) after they switch from 3.5 to the Pathfinder RPG. It's not at all clear to me whether they'll go up (because of new players converting to PFRPG) or down (because of people sticking with 3.5 or converting to 4E) or stay about the same.
Divination is not my strong suite or I would not have to work for a living but I expect the sales of the Pathfinder Adventure Path to go up slightly and a greater increase in both the modules and Chronicles subscriptions. Most, if not all of the DMs willing or able to run an adventure path are probably doing so hence the prediction of a slight increase. The remaining DMs who can't invest the time in the adventure path will probably subscribe to the modules, count me in this group. Both players and DMs will purcahse Chronicles due to wanting to know more about the very alive and exciting world of Glorian.
Doug
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I'd be curious to know what the pre-order totals are so far.
I may or may not be buying the beta book, just depends as my gaming group has kinda fallen apart lately, so I may just wait for the final book. Of course knowing my spending habits and gaming addiction, I'm bound to actually buy the beta book sooner or later.
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This will be the selling point and the draw to get where I think its going...Like I said I wouldnt at all be surprised if the first 3 month figures of sales for the actual product are 125% of the the 25,000 downloads.What I will be far more interested in is the sales figures for their core product (the Pathfinder adventure paths) after they switch from 3.5 to the Pathfinder RPG. It's not at all clear to me whether they'll go up (because of new players converting to PFRPG) or down (because of people sticking with 3.5 or converting to 4E) or stay about the same.
I would imagine only a slight increase in the adventure paths.
Most table top games only get together 2-3 times a month, It takes quite some time to finish an adventure path using that as a guide...usually 8-9 months (a tad bit over the 6)...so the average gamer won't buy every adventure path. That and combining that with many of those that purchase the Core book, won't neccessarily be running games themselves...means only a slight increase in the adventure paths as a few newcomers to Paizo start picking up the occasional AP.
Now the Campaign setting and its associated products, and MM's and splat books will continue to draw to even that crowd. IMHO
I have no idea. But I just ordered Beta Pathfinder and should have it in my hot little gypsy hands soon. So that's one download that equals a purchase!
Funny, of course I'll download the Beta (to sit forever in hard-drive purgatory with both my Alpha .pdfs) but the only reason I'm buying the Beta is because it's simply not worth the time or expenditure to print it out. I still don't like reading extensively on the computer, so getting a nice bound full-colour copy is worth the $25.
I'm very positive about Pathfinder and really hope it does well; but the shift you mention from WotC to Paizo is the same as the shift from Windows PCs to Macs or Linux. Getting a small slice of a big pie is great, but it's still only a small slice.
Or another analogy is the shift from IBM brand PC after they opened up the architecture to IBM clone. At first the idea was that other manufacturers could advance the state of computers by making parts that would work with the PC. But then Compaq came along and started making their own PCs, and doing very good business selling them. IBM tried to stop them from doing this with lawsuits because that was not their intention with the open architecture, but Compaq won the suits and the rest is history. Now IBM is not a major player in the PC market.
I was actually on the front lines back in 1996 - 1998, which was when IBM was losing the desktop war. They were pumping out good machines and they were selling them on the IBM brand name, but they were still being killed on price point by people like Compaq, NEC, Acer, and people who were building their own from parts. Dell was just an upstart at the time and now they pretty much own the PC market.
So now WotC has realized that they let the genie out of the bottle and they're hoping that they can stay on top by changing the platform rather than improve upon the existing platform, as all previous versions of D&D have done in the past. Instead of filing lawsuits, that they would lose, they think they can change the game to make the open architecture obsolete. Paizo and others say "Not so fast! We're sticking with the open source product. I think WotC's strategy might work for a while, but will it work long term? The testing grounds is right here with Pathfinder.
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I agree that we only can be sure of one thing at this point: the word's been spread out there, and a healthy amount of gamers are willing to have a look at PRPG.
We also can deduce from Erik's post that a healthy number of people have already decided they wanted a physical copy of Beta despite/in addition to the free PDF. That's encouraging.
Now, as to the type of reaction these gamers will have to the product, we may only wait and see. I think most will be happy though, judging by the quality of the previous Pathfinder offerings and the people participating to the PRPG effort.
Of course, there are those who won't be happy. That's unavoidable, given the nature of the product (too 3.5, not far enough, etc).
After that, we'll know whether PRPG will strive on its fans at the moment and/or grow from there to please new gaming tables in the near and not-so-near future.
PS: let's not forget, also, that there are gamers who are just waiting for the Beta release or the final version before purchasing/downloading anything.
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We are very proud of the number of people who have given the Pathfinder RPG a try, but we are not using the download number in our sales predictions. As Darrin said above, all it really does is reassure us that we have done everything we can to get the word out there.
I am flying to Gen Con tomorrow morning, and in a few days (after the Beta books go on sale at the show) I will have first-hand knowledge of how things are going. I already know about pre-orders (highest Paizo book paizo.com pre-order ever) and sales to hobby stores (strong), but I am looking forward to seeing what happens in person.
At the show we'll also be launching our new organized play program, which I trust will eventually help us sell some books.
How do the Amazon numbers look? Sadly that is how I'm having to get mine since they have such a good preorder discount and my wife has been out of work.
Insight into my little gaming world -
I ordered the free Alpha and have successfully used it to hook 4 others. I've also ordered the Beta and it looks like 4 more will order/buy hardcopies as well. We'll all order the free downloads too, so we can sneak peeks at it at work. (Shhhh...the boss may be around.)
And we haven't even poked our heads into the campaign setting yet. YET.
The $25 price makes the Beta A MUST HAVE at our table.
It should be the beginning of a beautiful friendship.
So now WotC has realized that they let the genie out of the bottle and they're hoping that they can stay on top by changing the platform rather than improve upon the existing platform, as all previous versions of D&D have done in the past. Instead of filing lawsuits, that they would lose, they think they can change the game to make the open architecture obsolete. Paizo and others say "Not so fast! We're sticking with the open source product. I think WotC's strategy might work for a while, but will it work long term? The testing grounds is right here with Pathfinder.
Unless the GSL changes are really sweeping, 4E might look like Mac OS. A quality OS (rulesset), but I already own $10 billion worth of PC software (3.5 books). Sure I can use SoftWindows (convert over), but that's alot of work. Then there's the price of entry barrier. I have to buy a whole new computer (3 new core books). Those are so expensive. Why can't I use the one(s) I already have. Yea I'm going to need an upgrade in a year or two (Pathfinder) but all my existing hardware (3.5 books) works with the PC (Pathfinder). I don't have to spend as much for the upgrade (MSRP $50) as I do for Apple (MSRP $110). Plus I'm just more comfortable with what I have.
Unless the GSL changes are really sweeping, 4E might look like Mac OS. A quality OS (rulesset), but I already own $10 billion worth of PC software (3.5 books). Sure I can use SoftWindows (convert over), but that's alot of work. Then there's the price of entry barrier. I have to buy a whole new computer (3 new core books). Those are so expensive. Why can't I use the one(s) I already have. Yea I'm going to need an upgrade in a year or two (Pathfinder) but all my existing hardware (3.5 books) works with the PC (Pathfinder). I don't have to spend as much for the upgrade (MSRP $50) as I do for Apple (MSRP $110). Plus I'm just more comfortable with what I have.
Wow... yeah. That's a great analogy.
How do the Amazon numbers look?
Just glanced over. As mentioned above Gazetteer was about #250,000.
The Beta is currently at #24,329.The Campaign Setting is #21,421 (#39 in Books > Science Fiction & Fantasy > Gaming, & #40 in Books > Entertainment > Puzzles & Games > Role Playing & Fantasy)
Of course since Paizo sells tons by subscription (not the Beta of course), it's an okay measure against itself, but not so much against others that don't self-publish/sell.
I think the "unique downloads" means that 25,000 accounts have downloaded at least one version of the alpha. In other words, if you download twice, it still only counts as once unless you make a new account for each download.You do have to be logged in to download the current Alpha, don't you?
D'oh!
I guess this is more hopeful than I was prepared to admit then.
Sorry, I keep accidentally deleting my copy and then when I log in to get a new one, I usually have forgotten my password. So I've created some extra accounts.
This has happened, I dunno... maybe 17... thousand times.
Sorry for the misplaced optimism, I really will try to remember my password next time! ;)
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Unless the GSL changes are really sweeping, 4E might look like Mac OS. A quality OS (rulesset), but I already own $10 billion worth of PC software (3.5 books). Sure I can use SoftWindows (convert over), but that's alot of work. Then there's the price of entry barrier. I have to buy a whole new computer (3 new core books). Those are so expensive. Why can't I use the one(s) I already have. Yea I'm going to need an upgrade in a year or two (Pathfinder) but all my existing hardware (3.5 books) works with the PC (Pathfinder). I don't have to spend as much for the upgrade (MSRP $50) as I do for Apple (MSRP $110). Plus I'm just more comfortable with what I have.
My hat is off to you sir. you and your amazingly adept and analytic analogy ability.
Unless the GSL changes are really sweeping, 4E might look like Mac OS. A quality OS (rulesset), but I already own $10 billion worth of PC software (3.5 books). Sure I can use SoftWindows (convert over), but that's alot of work. Then there's the price of entry barrier. I have to buy a whole new computer (3 new core books). Those are so expensive. Why can't I use the one(s) I already have. Yea I'm going to need an upgrade in a year or two (Pathfinder) but all my existing hardware (3.5 books) works with the PC (Pathfinder). I don't have to spend as much for the upgrade (MSRP $50) as I do for Apple (MSRP $110). Plus I'm just more comfortable with what I have.
A more apt analogy would be:
Windows 2000 = 3.0
Windows XP = 3.5
Windows Vista = 4.0
Comparing PCs and Macs is more like comparing D&D to WW or GURPS.
Although I think more people are jumping on the 4.0 bandwagon than are jumping on the Vista one.
Plus, using your logic, spending money on three 4.0 core books is too much, but buying PFRPG and Gazeteer, etc. is okay? You shouldn't need *any* new books!