In the year since the post, our area has not seen attendance fall off. If anything it has increased. Of our members we have one person who plays D&D5 org-play. Either they are playing it really, really, wrong, or it is an abusably broken game. (Something about the druid summoning pixies to turn the whole party into T-Rex who then rofl-stomped an encounter they were supposed to run from, and the whole party got 10x the exp they were supposed to get, and some of them went up 3 levels from that one encounter.)
I find many old PF guys looking back to pathfinder after playing 5e for a bit. Also, many new players get going for a couple months and taper off. Many seem to wish they had more options or find when they've mastered the system, the shine is gone and they're left wanting.
I also miss paizo and their support. Wotc seems to have just slapped the AL together and let it coast. Many adventures are pretty flat.