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Book 2 sets up a very good mcGuffin to explain this if the players take it.

This is reassuring to hear.

The adventure itself actually ASSUMES that there's a better than good chance that the PCs will suspect or even know that it's a trap, and that they'll be able to use that knowledge to their advantage. You'll need to wait and see how we handle it in book 3, of course, but the intention isn't so much to trick the players as it is to reward them for good play and give them a chance to strike a sound blow against Barzillai when he doesn't expect they'll be ready for it.

Very reassuring to hear.

And if the PCs DO decide to "go someplace else," that actually will likely backfire hard on them when the 4th adventure begins.

AKA: Adventure 3 rewards PCs who plan ahead, and punishes those who are timid or oblivious, if that makes sense.

Hmm... I've known many players who feel that not going to a trap is the sensible and correct decision, to hell with whatthe villain is planning and no matter how blatantly the GM hits them with the clue-bat. Hopefully we'll see some discussion about running the AP after the players do something completely unexpected.

Question: Is anyone else... concerned about this part of the Adventure path? The campaign outline says that Barzillai plans yo Trap the PCs and pin some sort of atrocity on them. Traps are difficult to pull off in RPGs, because you need the players to commit to a specific action, and you also need either to fool the PCs, or get them to willingly suspend disbelief.

With my players, there are a number of pitfalls: if I give them no opportunity to detect the trap, they're upset, especially since information gather/espionage is one of the major selling points of the Hell's Rebels AP. (If you use a Robinson's Laws of good gamemastering, three of my players are what he calls "tacticians" people who want to undermine the enemy's plot through clever strategy and tactics. The other two are fickle like cats)

Either way, there's the probability that the PCs decide "Trap. Let's go someplace else." If they decide not to attend, (presumably) Barzillai frames them in abstentia and they'll get upset. If they do go, I get five people doing Admiral Ackbar impressions.

Fortunately, that's all three two month's in the future, at least, but it has me worried for running this AP.

Any thoughts, strategies or advice?

This unexpected could be a) getting killed or b) getting Rexus killed, neither of which is what you want. The players may not understand that Rexus needs to be saved but NOT Rexus parents. They just won't know.

Hmmm... worth thinking about. Though from a story stand point either of Rexus' parents can fulfill his story role as scholar/adviser/moral compass. Both will order the PCs something along the lines of "Don't worry about me! Save Rexus!" and Rexus has three character levels (albeit two levels of aristocrat) which in theory makes him the best suited to survive if Rexus does die, he can die heroically saving the PCs.

Maybe you could have the PCs be somewhere else with Rexus (they are friends, sharing a drink in a bar). Rexus gets targeted as well and the PCs have to save him. After the attack he wants to return home, only to find it burned to the ground ... The PCs could also pick up rumors of other places that were attacked.

Also worth considering, but my GMing instinct is that there is more narrative "oomph" in being in a building as it burns rather than coming back to find it in ashes.

Next question: What are some events, besides the protest, that can indicate the simmering tensions in Kintargo both before and after the Night of Ashes?

Question, I'm toying with the idea of having starting the campaign with the Night of Ashes, with the PCs being members of the Victocora Household: younger siblings or cousins to Rexus, some of his drinking buddies and fellow students (possibly renting a spare room in the estate) and loyal servants to the household.

The PCs would bear witness to the slaughter of the household, barely escape with their lives (and hopefully, Rexus' as well) and possibly save some important documents, etc.

The emphasis would be on stealth and escape. The players would be alerted that all deaths here are final, and indeed, some of them will die. Ideally, this will invest them in the rebellion, set the stakes and tone (scrappy underdogs versus Thrune's vast might), and jumpstart Rexus' character arc as well.

Some set pieces:

Tiefling Cleric of Cayden Cailean, with a few ranks of duelist thrown in. I know that's not an ideal build, but maybe play around with the variant tiefling races and/or variant racial abilities.