A encounter with CR of APL+4 (according to the game's theory) has a 50% chance of destroying a group of four PCs.
A encounter with CR of APL+6 (according to the game's theory) has a 50% chance of destroying a group of eight PCs.
If you're expecting the encounter to wipe out half the group, surviving should be counted as overcoming at least a CR of APL+5.
Pathfinder Roleplaying Game characters advance in level by defeating monsters, overcoming challenges, and completing adventures . . .
I would argue that the players who flee have not defeated the monster, haven't overcome the challenge, nor completed the adventure: they earn zero XP.
Yes, they've evaded the challenge, but the challenge still exists, it hasn't been overcome. If you're arguing that the challenge is not staying to fight and having the wisdom to flee, then, okay, it's your game and you can do what you want, but I don't think they should earn a single XP for running away.
PC1: "Okay, my 15th level wizard --"
DM: "Uhhh, it's the beginning of the campaign, you're all first level."
PC1: "Yeah, but I haven't blasphemed Orcus, I haven't gone to the Abyss and fought him, thus overcoming the challenge of an impossible enemy, so I get the XP for defeating a CR:30 encounter."
No DM would allow that and that's an example of my reasoning for why fleeing doesn't earn XP; it's earned for what PC's do, not what they don't.
Pathfinder Roleplaying Game characters advance in level by defeating monsters, overcoming challenges, and completing adventures . . .I would argue that the players who flee have not defeated the monster, haven't overcome the challenge, nor completed the adventure: they earn zero XP.
Yes, they've evaded the challenge, but the challenge still exists, it hasn't been overcome. If you're arguing that the challenge is not staying to fight and having the wisdom to flee, then, okay, it's your game and you can do what you want, but I don't think they should earn a single XP for running away.
PC1: "Okay, my 15th level wizard --"
DM: "Uhhh, it's the beginning of the campaign, you're all first level."
PC1: "Yeah, but I haven't blasphemed Orcus, I haven't gone to the Abyss and fought him, thus overcoming the challenge of an impossible enemy, so I get the XP for defeating a CR:30 encounter."No DM would allow that and that's an example of my reasoning for why fleeing doesn't earn XP; it's earned for what PC's do, not what they don't.
Big difference in "I didn't go fight any demon lords today total my xp." and the GM including the creature in the adventure and going from there. Now full on avoiding and running probably shouldn't be rewarded unless its either the point of the exercise or is part of a smarter plan to get past it or grab the mcguffin from behind it. Now this all assumes there is a reason for this thing to be there. If its just there to screw with the party do whatever you think is best. If you intended for it to be there for a reason and they don't have to kill it to accomplish that reason then they should get something.
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This monster sounds like it's a trap implemented as a monster. You get XP for traps by avoiding or getting out of them; you don't have to disable/destroy the trap.
More importantly, what is the 'end goal' of having the encounter there as a GM?
Does it serve the narrative of the party/campaign to kill off half the party (or more) and have a few straggling survivors that will struggle to rebuild an adventuring team?
Does it keep the campaign more cohesive or less?
Could this encounter be hinted at (perhaps with some sort of antechamber or the like) to give strong enough hints to the party to leave well enough alone?
Example: In a campaign, our 3rd level party found a necromantic laboratory in an abandoned keep. We found the antechamber with all the information on 'how to make a lich' as well as two score of well-armored skeletal knights in repose. We booked it, because no matter what was in there, even an empty room, there was a good chance there was... going to be a lich which was WAY above our pay grade.
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As Fuzzy-Wuzzy says, I would treat it like a trap. Determine how difficult it is to get away... if they can just turn and run then that isn't particularly difficult. If they need to distract the monster somehow to get away alive that is more difficult. If they need to distract the monster long enough to sneak past it that's more involved. Et cetera. Then set the CR of the 'trap' based on the difficulty they had to overcome.
+1 to treating it as a trap. It's the closest analogue to what you're trying to accomplish.
But, regardless, if the party doesn't neutralize the beast in one fashion or another, the exp given shouldn't be anywhere near the full amount.
For a creature of CR APL+15, I reckon the full amount would be enough to level them up at least three times.
This is an example of why I loathe the entire concept of XP as the determinant criteria for leveling. I greatly prefer the "milestone" concept: i.e., did the characters survive this far?
If I've never held a football before, but get on a team which loses every game it plays that year, I'd nevertheless still be a lot more experienced from a realistic standpoint. -- I'd have gone up a level or three in "Football Player".
Depends on the difficulty of the encounter. If you think PC death is likely, then you're looking at at least APL+3. I'd eyeball it as APL+3 without more information.