Stats question

[ericthecleric]

If a creature with two claw attacks has a 0.75 chance of hitting with each claw, and needs to hit twice to use rend, then there is a 0.5625 chance of rend occurring.

If that creature has three claw attacks (same chance of hitting), and needs to hit two or three times to use rend, what's the chance of that happening? (If it helps, 0.75x 0.75x 0.75= 0.421875.)

It's a while since I've studied statistics, so I can't remember the solution. Can anyone help?

[Orfamay Quest]

Use the binomial distribution.

There is only one way to get three hits (hit-hit-hit), with a probability (as you calculate) of 0.42.

There are three ways to get two hits (hit-hit-miss, hit-miss-hit, miss-hit-hit), each with a probability of 0.75 * 0.75 * 0.25, roughly 0.14.

The total probability of getting two or more hits ends up being 0.84375.

[ericthecleric]

Thanks, Orfamay Quest!

I knew the Paizo website would deliver! :)