This. A million times.The problem is that Hollywood sometimes doesn't actually take the quality of a movie into account if it fails, they assume that it must mean there is no market for that type of movie.
In a perfect world, BvS failing would mean that Hollywood would redouble their efforts to make the next attempt greatly superior to that film.
In the world we live it, it's AT LEAST as likely that BvS failing would be interpreted as "the comic book movie bubble has burst1" About the only thing that will keep that from happening now is the fact that Marvel Studios touched the Crimson Gem of Cytorak several years back, and has turned into an unstoppable Juggernaut.
The fact that superhero movies and TV series would still be huge hits would prevent that from happening.
Fox didn't stop making movies after the failure of FF, did they? Marvel didn't stop after the lukewarm (at best) response to Thor 2... Why would it be any different for Warner?
It could lead to the end of superhero films as we currently know them in cinema and a renaissance of them on tv. I am not an arrow, flash, or supergirl fan but I know those shows are getting ratings. Good ones.
It could lead to the end of superhero films as we currently know them in cinema and a renaissance of them on tv. I am not an arrow, flash, or supergirl fan but I know those shows are getting ratings. Good ones.
There are still more than enough superhero movies to keep Warner motivated to try and take a bite of that market. Arrow and Flash are pretty different shows (Arrow is darker and Flash is more colorful). Gotham is also dark and was a pretty good series before it took a nose-dive in quality in the last third of the 1st season (mostly because the TV company told the producers to extend the series and the writers suddenly saw themselves having to write a bunch of new episodes out of nowhere, forcing them to do a rushed job to fulfill the demand).
It could lead to the end of superhero films as we currently know them in cinema and a renaissance of them on tv. I am not an arrow, flash, or supergirl fan but I know those shows are getting ratings. Good ones.Only if Marvel was dumb enough to stop production (and release!) of those it has in the pipeline. Or of course if they flop as well, but that's a different story.
That kind of argument worked when there was only one big superhero movie coming out at a time. A single flop could hurt the whole genre. Same for other rare genres.
It doesn't make sense any more.
Precisely.
| 1 person marked this as a favorite. |
It could lead to the end of superhero films as we currently know them in cinema and a renaissance of them on tv. I am not an arrow, flash, or supergirl fan but I know those shows are getting ratings. Good ones.Only if Marvel was dumb enough to stop production (and release!) of those it has in the pipeline. Or of course if they flop as well, but that's a different story.
That kind of argument worked when there was only one big superhero movie coming out at a time. A single flop could hurt the whole genre. Same for other rare genres.
It doesn't make sense any more.
all bubbles burst in time.
RPG Superstar 2008 Top 32, 2011 Top 16
|
| 1 person marked this as a favorite. |
all bubbles burst in time.It could lead to the end of superhero films as we currently know them in cinema and a renaissance of them on tv. I am not an arrow, flash, or supergirl fan but I know those shows are getting ratings. Good ones.Only if Marvel was dumb enough to stop production (and release!) of those it has in the pipeline. Or of course if they flop as well, but that's a different story.
That kind of argument worked when there was only one big superhero movie coming out at a time. A single flop could hurt the whole genre. Same for other rare genres.
It doesn't make sense any more.
True, but sometimes that can be decades. Westerns were insanely popular for 40+ years and then fell out of favor.
| 1 person marked this as a favorite. |
True, but sometimes that can be decades. Westerns were insanely popular for 40+ years and then fell out of favor.all bubbles burst in time.It could lead to the end of superhero films as we currently know them in cinema and a renaissance of them on tv. I am not an arrow, flash, or supergirl fan but I know those shows are getting ratings. Good ones.Only if Marvel was dumb enough to stop production (and release!) of those it has in the pipeline. Or of course if they flop as well, but that's a different story.
That kind of argument worked when there was only one big superhero movie coming out at a time. A single flop could hurt the whole genre. Same for other rare genres.
It doesn't make sense any more.
And not necessarily everything that grows quickly is a bubble.
| 1 person marked this as a favorite. |
When I was in high school and undergrad I pretty much went and saw any and every science fiction/fantasy movie, no matter how bad, and part of it was because I thought it was better to encourage any movement towards more genre movies, even if it meant supporting some really dumb stuff (I saw Wing Commander in theaters for god's sake!)
Now I am older and time is more precious. I realize that there isn't any shortage of good entertainment out there, and I would rather support movies I like and which are good than just anything with a space ship (or superhero as the case may be).
At any rate, given the superhero boom of late, as others have pointed out, one movie doing "only okay" (B vs S will make a profit, just not as amazing one as it might have been able to) isn't going to hurt future super hero movies. I mean Deadpool made a killing (and still is), and that just came out a few months ago. WB may reconsider their strategy, but they are still going to go full steam ahead over the next few years on producing super hero movie
| 1 person marked this as a favorite. |
Well, saw the movie finally. I enjoyed it. I thought all the main actors did a good job even Lex who I thought might be annoying. At no time was I bored or wishing I wasn't watching it.
That said I think I can see where some of the disconnect is. At the start you have a movie that is exploring real consequences of superheroes in the world. A legitimate topic which I think was handled about as well as one can expect. But then about the last third of the movie switches to a more comic book story. Heroes fighting villains and trying to save the day.
Also, I'm just glad we have super hero movies like we do now days. Who else here remembers all the super hero movies from the 80s, barring Keatons batman? I didn't think so....
| 4 people marked this as a favorite. |
I liked the movie on my second viewing more than I did on the first. I have some criticisms of the film, but I thought it was head and shoulders above a bulk of what Marvel Studios has put out (Iron Man 2, Iron Man 3, and, controversially GotG for example).
One of the things I most wish we'd gotten though was one scene, just one where Lex dropped the manic, scatter-brained act and just got to be smart and menacing. We nearly had that on the helicopter pad just before the final act kicked off, but not quite.
|
Also, I'm just glad we have super hero movies like we do now days. Who else here remembers all the super hero movies from the 80s, barring Keatons batman? I didn't think so....
We had Dolph Lundgren's Punisher. Which wasn't bad at all. There was also Superman 2 which was mostly good, and 3 and 4 which were awful. Supergirl, also awful.
There was also a direct to video live action Captian America that was terrible.
Contributor, RPG Superstar 2010 Top 8
|
I liked the movie both because it was fun to watch, and because all of the POTENTIAL for the future installments.
I thought the end was fun to watch, and I get the anticipation for future installments.
For me though, the first hour and a half was not terribly fun to watch. And that's like a whole movie of bad before you get to something enjoyable.
That's just my opinion though.
|
I liked the movie on my second viewing more than I did on the first. I have some criticisms of the film, but I thought it was head and shoulders above a bulk of what Marvel Studios has put out (Iron Man 2, Iron Man 3, and, controversially GotG for example).
One of the things I most wish we'd gotten though was one scene, just one where Lex dropped the manic, scatter-brained act and just got to be smart and menacing. We nearly had that on the helicopter pad just before the final act kicked off, but not quite.
I liked it more on the second viewing as well. Can't agree with you on it being better than Iron Man 3 or GotG though.
And I loved Lex when he wasn't a nutcase.
Also, I'm just glad we have super hero movies like we do now days. Who else here remembers all the super hero movies from the 80s, barring Keatons batman? I didn't think so....We had Dolph Lundgren's Punisher. Which wasn't bad at all. There was also Superman 2 which was mostly good, and 3 and 4 which were awful. Supergirl, also awful.
There was also a direct to video live action Captian America that was terrible.
I had forgotten about supergirl movie completely and had to look it up online. Wonder if I can still purchase it on laser disc?
| 5 people marked this as a favorite. |
I had forgotten about supergirl movie completely and had to look it up online. Wonder if I can still purchase it on laser disc?
You could just skip the middleman and throw your money in the garbage bin. XD
Howard the Duck withstands the test of time.
I had forgotten about supergirl movie completely and had to look it up online. Wonder if I can still purchase it on laser disc?You could just skip the middleman and throw your money in the garbage bin. XD
I know, right. I was just mainly seeing who remembered laser discs ;)
| 3 people marked this as a favorite. |
I know, right. I was just mainly seeing who remembered laser discs ;)I had forgotten about supergirl movie completely and had to look it up online. Wonder if I can still purchase it on laser disc?You could just skip the middleman and throw your money in the garbage bin. XD
I actually STILL HAVE my last laserdisc player the Pioneer DVL-700. Along with a few choice laserdiscs that I kept for nostalgic reasons. I'm not even sure that it still works though...
| 1 person marked this as a favorite. |
At this point it doesnt look like Batman v Superman is going to reach a billion dollars in box office. Very front loaded movie with very little staying power. I'm sure that word of mouth hindered it.
That being said, I think that it's recouped it's budget and definitely making a profit. Just not as huge as some were expecting.
I'm sure it'll turn a profit at some point... Just not nearly as much as the studio expected/hoped. They don't put near a billion dollar investment in a production just to get a few extra thousands.
Hopefully this'll be a wake-up call for Warner and they'll learn someone competent to replace Snyder.
| 1 person marked this as a favorite. |
It's actually surprisingly close to Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 sales-wise so far. BvS had the seventh biggest domestic opening weekend of all time (HP7 part 2 had the biggest at the time, now the sixth highest, just a head of BvS). HP7 Part 2 had the biggest drop on its second weekend of all time, while BvS had the fifth largest weekend-to-weekend drop. Actually, in domestic gross BvS did slightly better on its second weekend than Deathly Hallows part 2 (51 million domestically vs 47 million). Deathly Hallows' total domestic gross after two weekends was only a little ahead of where BvS was.
Deathly Hallows Part 2 ultimately did reach 1.34 billion dollars worldwide ($380 million domestically), but it took awhile to get there.Keep in mind, though, HP7,P2 had stiff competition its second and third weekends: Captain America opened the weekend after HP, and knocked HP down to second place for that weekend. Its third weekend it got knocked down to fourth place. BvS didn't have to compete with any blockbusters its second weekend, and probably won't fall below second its third weekend.
(Also note: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 received 96% positive reviews on RT, the highest in the HP franchise, while BvS has only 29% positive. Both got mostly good responses from audience members on RT (89% positive vs 70% positive).
Everything that you stated is absolutely true.
I'd also like to point out that HP 7 Pt2 was effectively the EIGHTH movie in an ongoing series. And a series which is arguably more popular than both the Batman and Superman franchises. So yes, it was entirely possible for HP 7 pt2 to limp across the finish line to a box office draw of over a billion dollars. I don't see that same thing happening for BvS.
By this time (the 3rd week of release) HP 7 PT 2 had grossed $330million dollars.
Right now BvS stands at $279 million. Could it make another $20 million by Monday? Dunno but you're still looking at HP 7 PT2 out grossing BvS by a pretty good margin.
At this point in both of their release cycles, IRON MAN 3 grossed more domestically ($311 Million) than BvS ($279 million) and IM 3 had competition where as you've stated BvS pretty much had NONE for two weekends straight.
BvS is by no means by ANY barometer a failure, but it's not what we'd call a smashing success.
| 1 person marked this as a favorite. |
I'm sure it'll turn a profit at some point... Just not nearly as much as the studio expected/hoped. They don't put near a billion dollar investment in a production just to get a few extra thousands.
Hopefully this'll be a wake-up call for Warner and they'll learn someone competent to replace Snyder.
Oh I agree. It's DEFINITELY making a profit. Estimated budget at $250 million + probably marketing budget around $100 million? so youre looking at $350 million. They need to make twice that before they start making a profit? So right now the total global box office is somewhere around $742 million. They're probably going to wrap the theatrical run somewhere around $850 - $900 million.
So yeah, they'll be alright.
|
|
| 1 person marked this as a favorite. |
all bubbles burst in time.It could lead to the end of superhero films as we currently know them in cinema and a renaissance of them on tv. I am not an arrow, flash, or supergirl fan but I know those shows are getting ratings. Good ones.Only if Marvel was dumb enough to stop production (and release!) of those it has in the pipeline. Or of course if they flop as well, but that's a different story.
That kind of argument worked when there was only one big superhero movie coming out at a time. A single flop could hurt the whole genre. Same for other rare genres.
It doesn't make sense any more.
We've had a comic book inspired movie almost every year since Burton's Batman, with maybe one or two gaps.
The superhero "bubble" bursting is like bursting science fiction movies. Eventually they're drop in popularity, they're reduce in number but not vanish and then something will shake them up and the cycle will begin anew. Like Star Wars followed by Star Trek followed by the Matrix.
| 1 person marked this as a favorite. |
It's probably too late to do much of anything about the Justice League movies, and WB is standing by it guns so far regarding the direction of their movies.
I actually don't expect to see much a response from WB unless Civil War (which has already been getting good reviews from press screenings) utterly annihilates them in sales, or unless Suicide Squad flops.
|
|
| 3 people marked this as a favorite. |
I'm sure it'll turn a profit at some point... Just not nearly as much as the studio expected/hoped. They don't put near a billion dollar investment in a production just to get a few extra thousands.
Hopefully this'll be a wake-up call for Warner and they'll learn someone competent to replace Snyder.
Oh I agree. It's DEFINITELY making a profit. Estimated budget at $250 million + probably marketing budget around $100 million? so youre looking at $350 million. They need to make twice that before they start making a profit? So right now the total global box office is somewhere around $742 million. They're probably going to wrap the theatrical run somewhere around $850 - $900 million.
So yeah, they'll be alright.
The general wisdom is a marketing budget equal to the production budget. Even if it isn't quite the full $250 million, it's a LOT. And given the BvS everywhere it might very well be that that $250 million.
Plus, they don't get 100% of the gross. Theaters get some of that. Not much, but some.It will likely make some money, but it won't be a "hit", or even a success. It just won't be a bomb.
|
|
| 1 person marked this as a favorite. |
Three weekend total observations gleaned from boxofficemojo:
BvS's domestic revenue has currently overtaken its budget by ~45M (per BOM's 250M estimate).
Weekend 1 to 2 saw a 70% decline in sales. Weekend 2 to 3 saw a 55% decline in sales. These are domestic numbers.
Domestically, it is still ~60M behind Deadpool's domestic take (358M v 296M). Following a 50% drop model, unless this movie keeps pulling in a few million a screen into 2017, there is no foreseeable way to surpass Deadpool. If it were to trend down on the usual curve, we'd only be looking at another 20M in the domestic pot before Civil War annihilates the box office, and likely putting BvS to bed.
Internationally, BvS has pulled in over 1.5x the money it has domestically, bringing its total up to 783M. With about 200M left to go, there is an off chance that BvS could break the 1B marker from its strong international appeal.
Deadpool has finally fallen out of the internationally highest grossing Super Hero film of 2016, after 9 weeks. BvS currently has a cool 25M lead over Deadpool, which the Merc with the Mouth probably won't catch up, considering his weekend 9 revenue was only 2.1M, and we're 3 weeks from Civil War.
BvS has done considerably better in the international markets than Deadpool, likely 100% due to the lack of an R rating and the rampant censorship or outright banning that many markets like China and India require to get screened. With the lack of T&A and insane volumes of language, grimdark gets probably a much easier pass being PG13 across the international censor desks.
EDIT: Fun Fact: BvS is the third highest grossing Batman film, behind TDK and TDKR. As of now, it only has a 50M domestic lead over the all time classic 1989 Burton Batman. No idea if BOM adjusts for inflation.
I finally saw the BvS movie.
I thought the script writing was EXTREMELY POOR. They don't identify who characters are till a little while into the movie for some characters. You have no idea why you should care about Bruce Wayne, or Clark or anyone. They simply expect you to know these characters and their backstories.
When they finally get around to it, they still have ludicrous jumps of ridiculous proportions, so I locked my brain in a trunk and simply decided to try to enjoy the movie for what it was.
Still, if Diana's sword could lop off a hand, why not a head, and what would happen to the best then?
All sorts of ridiculous things...
I suppose they set it up for Superman Returns story line with the death of Supes?
And what is up with that alternate future...did they just toss that in for kicks and giggles?
Because, if Lex was coordinating everything to get Bats to be in the position he wanted...there's no way he actually got that alternate future all set up and then sent that dream to Bruce...
And if he did...that means Lex was actually the GOOD guy instead of the bad....
It's a decent movie, if one doesn't think too deeply about it.
I enjoyed the action parts of it, but don't see any reason they had to make it R (when they release the extended Blu-Ray) except that it's a Snyder thing....
|
|
I finally saw the BvS movie.
I thought the script writing was EXTREMELY POOR. They don't identify who characters are till a little while into the movie for some characters. You have no idea why you should care about Bruce Wayne, or Clark or anyone. They simply expect you to know these characters and their backstories.
I enjoyed the action parts of it, but don't see any reason they had to make it R (when they release the extended Blu-Ray) except that it's a Snyder thing....
As well they should. Superman and Batman are damn household names for 60 years and more.
As for R it's more along the lines of swear words and some really brutal violence.
| 1 person marked this as a favorite. |
Thanks for collecting that data above Archmagi. It's cool to have it all in one place! That said, one of the things I find interesting is that Deadpool was made for only about 48 mil per IMDb. That is a HUGE profit margin compared to BvS quarter of a billion cost. Of course, I imagine that the marketing costs aren't figured into the 48, either.
|
|
| 2 people marked this as a favorite. |
Yeah, Fox gave the Deadpool guys a shoestring budget and they turned "BATMAN and SUPERMAN in the SAME MOVIE?!" numbers. The metrics will get really interesting when we throw in Civil War, X-Men reboot pt 3: Apocalypse, and Suicide Squad. Production budgets vs revenue comparing all five films will be quite a numbers game, but unless Civil War completely destroys the box office (good chance, Disney is riding high off of Star Wars revenue and partial good will right now), Deadpool may stand as the by percentage largest success of the year.
The real numbers question we should be asking though, is whether Suicide Squad will be profitable domestically. BvS met production costs at home, but its marketing, particularly in the three weeks leading into the release, was outrageous. I'm sure its profitable after the international takes are in, or thereabouts close. Cutting 40% off the top to get from gross to net, we're still looking at a movie that earned the studio half a billion dollars, plus toy royalties.
A cursory google search has SS rumored with a blockbuster budget (250+), so WB really *really* needs it to outperform BvS to realistically continue down their cinematic universe path at the scope they want. No matter how much they want to keep making 250M blockbusters, if they're only clearing even or making a 10% profit, that's not good business, and the investors will start setting sail.
Though one surprising thing, at least to me, is that WB should be looking at a lot better budget numbers though, particularly since *most* of its core cast are B-List at best. BvS's A-Listers consisted of Adams, Afflek and arguably Eisenberg. Cavill and Gadot are solid B, maybe even C listers. Some of its supporters may be big name, but when was the last time Jeremy Irons could seriously be considered A list and require A list money for a bit part? Gadot's film has Chris Pine in it, and then some former A list actresses, but its star power seems pretty cheap. Aquaman, Flash, and Cyborg are all celebrity lite or no-names who fetch pittances compared to Afflek or Adams. Cut out Adams from Justice League, and Cavill from probably most of the movie
and Afflek reins as the top billed, top paid honcho amongst a cadre of B, C and D list ensemble. This acting combination costs MILLIONS less than an Evans, Downey, Johannson, Paul Rudd, Anthony Mackie and Co A list flooded Civil War. And thats leaving out Jackson & Hemsworth (and maybe Ruffalo, he's borderline A-B). Paying all those salaries and then still having a sub 300M budget is no small feat.
Suicide Squad, though, as an Ensemble film doesn't have that glaringly obvious cheap actor fee that the Justice League films will have. If the 250M budget is true, Will Smith is probably absorbing 5-10% of that alone (he was too expensive to be in ID4-2), and Robbie is likely getting a big chuck as well. On top of that, we have some fairly recognizable castings who probably pull in sizable fees (Generic Jai, Eyebrows Develinge (Sp?), etc.). I'm sure Leto probably is bringing in a bunch, but beyond his recent Oscar, he's not a present enough star for me to consider A list. Hell with just those five I listed we're probably eating a fifth of the production budget.
Salary ranting aside, if SS doesn't turn as good as or better than BvS numbers, we're probably looking at a scope redefinition in the skunkworks of WB, or in the least renegotiating all those contracts down. Marvel has managed to turn some of its initially cheaper actors into A-List gold (Downey, Evans and Hemsworth to be specific), so WB really needs to get the Cavills, Momoas, and whoever Flash and Cyborg are into the same celebrity strata for their future films to have as much audience appeal. Because Grimdark isn't widespread appeal, no matter what BvS's international figures show.
|
|
| 1 person marked this as a favorite. |
WB is clearly in panic mode. I expect heads are already being measured for the block.
What? Sudden re-shoots to make it reportedly "funner" and a shiny new "fun" trailer set to the slick tunes of Sweet's classic Ballroom Blitz don't necessarily scream "REBRANDING! HEY LOOK, THIS MOVIE WON'T BE POOPIE!"
Just kind of.
| 1 person marked this as a favorite. |
Although for what it is worth, the director and, I think, one of the actors has denied the rumor that the reshoots were aimed at more humor. I read a transcript of one of the director's tweets today that implied they just gave him expanded budget for upping some of the action shots. Considering it seems to have some rather optimistic word of mouth already, I kinda believe him. They may be hoping that if it can pull out a solid critic and consumer rating that it will hold folks over to continue to watch despite BvS.
|
|
| 1 person marked this as a favorite. |
A bigger drop off than my number crunching last week. BvS did make 10x Deadpool this week, but make of that what you will with a two month old (ten weekend) movie pulling in just short of a million. With Jungle Book coming out and 2 more weekends until Civil War, I think it's pretty close to nail in the coffin time.
As of this weekends numbers, Deadpool is still 50m ahead of BvS domestically. But BvS has broken the 100m lead overall due to international numbers. One more open weekend is ahead of it in the international waters, and a good showing could still somehow put supes over the 900m mark, but it's unlikely.
|
|
A lot of cash and enough to sink existing movies numbers are different animals. Looking solidly at the international market since that's the only place BvS has shined, a measley 100m showing could all but erase BvS's chance at the 900m overall. Issues with the century old source and author aside, this is a big Disney spectacle, and even if it only does as good as the meh Cinderella, that's half a bil worldwide.
Maybe that's a topic for the jungle book movie thread.
| 1 person marked this as a favorite. |
Oh come on, jungle book cannot hope to rake in a lot of cash. It probably won't even dent the box office.
*explodes*