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Unless the GSL changes are really sweeping, 4E might look like Mac OS. A quality OS (rulesset), but I already own $10 billion worth of PC software (3.5 books). Sure I can use SoftWindows (convert over), but that's alot of work. Then there's the price of entry barrier. I have to buy a whole new computer (3 new core books). Those are so expensive. Why can't I use the one(s) I already have. Yea I'm going to need an upgrade in a year or two (Pathfinder) but all my existing hardware (3.5 books) works with the PC (Pathfinder). I don't have to spend as much for the upgrade (MSRP $50) as I do for Apple (MSRP $110). Plus I'm just more comfortable with what I have.
You know, as a Mac user, I'm a little offended. I love my Mac and I would never compare it to 4th edition.
;)
(It's a funny analogy, however.)
I'm pretty sure that Paizo can sell 5,000 units easy.
I'm going to guess that they'll sell 15,000 units within the first 6 months. I have no idea of their projections or their numbers, and these guesses may be wildly off, but I do have some basis for them - though certianly nothing solid.
What do you think?
I am going to buy the hardcover beta for whatever price they will be selling it.
I also plan to get the download this weekend. You can't have too much Pathfinder.
EDIT: So, that leaves 11,999 copies to go. ;-)
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I would guess that they could get between 50%-60% will buy at least one copy. That would be about 12,000 copies, which is not a great run for a release, but still considering the focused nature of the market for such a release, it wouldn't be bad either.
I think you greatly overestimate the size of the gaming industry. 12,000 copies sold would be huge. Only WotC can put up numbers like those, usually.
I would guess that they could get between 50%-60% will buy at least one copy. That would be about 12,000 copies, which is not a great run for a release, but still considering the focused nature of the market for such a release, it wouldn't be bad either.I think you greatly overestimate the size of the gaming industry. 12,000 copies sold would be huge. Only WotC can put up numbers like those, usually.
Well, then that is the goal of Paizo! Lets out WotC WotC! ~grins~
(Yes, it would be VERY nice if Paizo were able to sell 12k copies of the Beta. Note, I am buying one copie, so that makes it 11,999 copies more that need to be sold.)
[QUOTE="Sharoth"
Well, then that is the goal of Paizo! Lets out WotC WotC! ~grins~
(Yes, it would be VERY nice if Paizo were able to sell 12k copies of the Beta. Note, I am buying one copie, so that makes it 11,999 copies more that need to be sold.)
I like the bravado but I think that if we see a mass migration of customers from WotC to Paizo, it will likely take place over the course of several years.
On the other hand, I'm concerned what would happen to Paizo if it became so successful that large corporations like Nintendo or Blizzard started throwing obscene amounts of money at it to buy it up. Right now part of the reason I like it is because it's small.
Another point of interest, the guy who was in charge of the Con up in Spokane just called me about an hour ago to find out how he could get the Pathfinder RPG. He was running all over the place while I was there, so we didn't get much time to hang out together, but apparently the Pathfinder game I ran made a good impression on a couple of the people he normally games with. Their group was already 4E non-switchers and now it looks like they'll be new Pathfinder RPG players.
I like the bravado but I think that if we see a mass migration of customers from WotC to Paizo, it will likely take place over the course of several years.
There is absolutely no reason one can not buy both versions.
Well, you may be too poor, but being disinclined to buy both is a personal choice. One of many choices you have to make in this lifetime.
I am going to buy the hardcover beta for whatever price they will be selling it.The Beta is softcover (and PDF) only. The finished Pathfinder RPG will be hardcover (and PDF).
Nix the beta in that sentence: s\beta\book\
Thank you. :-)
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While I, as a frequent lurker and occasional poster on these boards and a listener to nearly every RPG podcast ever put in iTunes I was eagerly awaiting each Alpha release, there are a lot of 3.5 refugees that won't know of Pathfinder until it finds its way to a shelf in their FLGS.(that may be the longest sentence I have ever written) I know that from looking at my collection of APs and other Paizo stuff, I would pick it up and buy it at a store without knowing what the heck it was just due to the art and production value.
I hope Gary is ready for the flood of new messageboard members once the Beta after it is offered at GenCon and then hits store shelves and the rest of the 3.5 crowd sees where the game is headed.
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11,997 - 3 = 11,994
Who's next?
P.s. Tell your friends to pick up about 5 at a time using someone's subscription account. PAIZO pays $10 for every orders over $100, so its like buy 4, get one half off (or so).
My buddy and I will be at Gen Con. We're both picking up a copy. So, make that 11,992 left unaccounted for.
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My buddy and I will be at Gen Con. We're both picking up a copy. So, make that 11,992 left unaccounted for.11,997 - 3 = 11,994
Who's next?
P.s. Tell your friends to pick up about 5 at a time using someone's subscription account. PAIZO pays $10 for every orders over $100, so its like buy 4, get one half off (or so).
y'all forgot mine! 11,991
Comparing PCs and Macs is more like comparing D&D to WW or GURPS.
Historically true. Not as true today. The line is blurring more with java apps and mac using intel hardware and mac os having a native windows emulator. I say my analogy holds.
Plus, using your logic, spending money on three 4.0 core books is too much, but buying PFRPG and Gazeteer, etc. is okay? You shouldn't need *any* new books!
Well if you're going to combine the Gazetteer in there, then make sure you include the FRCS in with the 3 core books for 4E. I didn't include the Gazetteer. All you need to run Pathfinder RPG is the core book. And all you need for 4E is the core 3. That's all I was including. But MSRPs with FRCS and Gazeteer, 4E $160 vs $68.
And to your question, one's an upgrade, one's a new platform. One needs all new supplements if you want native books, the other can be easily converted over by eye balling it.
I know that in my group two of us have downloaded the Alpha and four of us are buying the Beta.So counting your four and my groups two that means 11,985 to go.
Are we counting the beta or the final? I have two copies of the beta on order, but haven't yet placed my order for the final since it's still a year off. Does that bring us down to 11,983?
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(highest Paizo book paizo.com pre-order ever)That in itself tells us something, since their business essentially began with the AP model. The fact that more people have preordered the PRPG than any of the AP books is huge - it means the customer base is expanding, and for something much more expensive.
Or it may mean that more than just the DM in most groups are buying the PRPG rules - where the other books are (mostly) bought by DMs.
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I'd be surprised if the numbers are quite as positive as you're suggesting.
I don't believe either Paizo or WotC have released the actual numbers concerned, and obviously there are many different sales channels (not least electronic download in the case of Paizo) but let's make one simple comparison between the Amazon sales ranks of probably one of the highest selling Pathfinder book (the Gazetteer) and probably the lowest selling of the first-four 4ed publications (the intro adventure "keep on the shadowfell"). The Gazetteer's currently #253,143 on amazon.com, and Keep on the Shadowfell's currently #2478. That's two orders of magnitude difference in sales rank (not number of sales etc).
I'll grant you that you admit there are other factors at play, but let me throw a couple at you right off the bat.
The Keep on Shadowfell isn't a good product to compare, because it was the first 4th ed product available, and it was an entirely different type of product (adventure) than the gazetteer. Many many people bought KotS because it was a preview of the rules, so it's sales would logically be higher than any other "normal" adventure.
The preorder via Amazon.com for the Pathfinder beta rules print version is currently #16,785, about 1/6th of the first 4th ed product, and it's not even out yet! I wouldn't say that's bad at all, especially for a product that can be downloaded right now for free, vs a product that's been out for a couple of months.
