|
I seem to recall plenty of sentiment about how it was unlikely Brexit would go to Leave, and how unlikely it was that Trump would get through that primary let alone the general. Consider me over cautious if you like, but I don't take comfort in unlikely these days.
Uncertainty has already and heavily put its stamp on the French presidential election this year.
Marine Le Pen is in fact the only likely candidate that did make it to being an actual candidate.
On the Right side, favorites Sarkozy and Juppé were kicked out by the voters during the primaries and Fillon was invested on a platform of honesty, hard labor and strong Catholic values.
He is currently quagmired in revelations after revelations about arranging for himself, his wife and kids to get very good payments by gaming the parliamentary system. So much for honesty and hard work. It rocked the Right boat to the extent that some considered getting rid of Fillon and relaunching the primaries. Fillon quashed this with the most wonderful agreement of "It's either me or utter chaos." Which does not preclude that chaos will shadow each of his footsteps BTW
On the Left side, chaos has already won.
Current French President François Hollande decided not to be a candidate, which is a first in France's 5th Republic. Prime Minister Valls tried to win the main Left primary and was soundly defeated by inner party's opponent Benoit Hamon, on a rather leftist and almost anti-establishment platform of change.
Hamon is currently negotiating the convergence and 2nd-turn support of Melenchon (a Socialist pundit turned far left savior when the communist's party and exteme-left's stars faded) and Jadot (anti-establishment Ecologist). Which is all par for the course on the left side of pre-presidential politics in France.
What was completely unanticipated (even by himself I think) was Emmanuel Macron's rise to prominence at the center of the political spectrum. He even appears now likely to be at the 2nd turn facing Le Pen (and winning).
So complete and utter mayhem is already here.
The game for all the candidates apart from Le Pen is to be the one facing her in the 2nd turn, as the one there will get an almost guaranteed win. Because all the others will forget their differences and oppose her, as they did her father 15 years ago.
Or so I hope
|
|
| 2 people marked this as a favorite. |
I wonder where this idea that France is a land of cowards takes roots.
Why would going against the grain be so wonderful BTW ?
For that matter, making one's country great has often been used as an argument to short-circuit thought and seduce the suffering masses. Most often by autocrats and totalitarians and to the belated regret of said masses
Being great and being happy is not the same and the latter is a far worthier endeavor, even if is also more difficult by far
I wonder where this idea that France is a land of cowards takes roots. Is it ancient or recent, a US thing or something widespread ?
In the US, I think, it's a combo of an older stereotype of the French as effete degenerates mixed with US anger and resentment at De Gaulle's "ingratitude" post-WW II.
| 5 people marked this as a favorite. |
Oh hey! There's a wiki page about it:
| 1 person marked this as a favorite. |
There were plenty of German-Americans fighting on the revolutionary side. There were also Germans from what would later become Germany fighting on the revolutionary side, the most famous probably being the Prussian Baron Frederick William who was commissioned as a Brigadier General by the Continental Congress and died after the failed Canadian campaign.
| 4 people marked this as a favorite. |
| 1 person marked this as a favorite. |
What was completely unanticipated (even by himself I think) was Emmanuel Macron's rise to prominence at the center of the political spectrum. He even appears now likely to be at the 2nd turn facing Le Pen...
Was listening to some concerning statistics about Macron. He's doing well in the media and polling, but once you step away from that, people just don't know who he is. In social media, his market share of mentions is really, really low for a front runner. I'm hoping this lack of raw awareness and understanding of him doesn't translate into poor performance in the voting booth.
Not that I have a particular preference for him, just that LePen is scary.
| 1 person marked this as a favorite. |
Not that I have a particular preference for him, just that LePen is scary.
I feel like I've seen this formulation before, rather recently...
| 1 person marked this as a favorite. |
Well, I'm not a French voter, so I haven't really researched the candidates or know much about them. I'm usually moderately familiar with who the French PM is, but I don't pay attention to candidates.
But I agree with the sentiment.
|
|
Marine scores some points by refusing to wear a headscarf in Lebanon
Despite her protesting otherwise, I am certain that she knew perfectly that she would be asked to cover her head and that she seized the opportunity to show her supporters back in France that she refused to submit to Islamic culture
That it caused a diplomatic ruckus and was quite disrespectful to her hosts was of no importance to her whatsoever
Marine scores some points by refusing to wear a headscarf in LebanonDespite her protesting otherwise, I am certain that she knew perfectly that she would be asked to cover her head and that she seized the opportunity to show her supporters back in France that she refused to submit to Islamic culture
That it caused a diplomatic ruckus and was quite disrespectful to her hosts was of no importance to her whatsoever
Which is ironic since she supported the 'No-Burka's on the Beach' law. Thus showing she's a bit of a hypocrite, that other countries/cultures have to respect France - but she doesn't have to reciprocate.
There is a Simpsons quote that "almost" fits here
You know, we saved your arse in World War II. :Well, we saved *your* arse in World War III.
| 1 person marked this as a favorite. |
She's consistent about being anti-Islam. She's not consistent if you're looking at it from a "Our country, our rules" point of view.
More charitably, she's consistent about being pro-laïcité, which in France is about as controversial as being pro-"freedom" in the USA. She's also pro-women's rights, which is also generally considered to be a good thing in Western democracies.
|
|
Or you know, her own support for not accepting women's right to choose their own attire in France. You know, the Burka ban.That it caused a diplomatic ruckus and was quite disrespectful to her hosts was of no importance to her whatsoeverWhat's disrespectful here is the hosts' not accepting Marine's right to choose her own attire. Monstrous.
And that's a separate issue where *she* is being disrespectful.
If choosing our own attire is the only respectful option, should I be able to meet the Grand Mufti skyclad? Or is this a case of "My taboos are the way things should be and yours are just offensive impositions"?
And if they demanded you have to be nude and collared in order to meet with them, because otherwise you're violating their oh so precious taboos?
|
|
| 2 people marked this as a favorite. |
That it caused a diplomatic ruckus and was quite disrespectful to her hosts was of no importance to her whatsoeverWhat's disrespectful here is the hosts' not accepting Marine's right to choose her own attire. Monstrous.
When I went to a jewish memorial in Eastern Europe, I wore a kippa though I am not a jew. Because it was required for male visitors to gain entrance. I see this as a similar mark of respect.
|
|
More charitably, she's consistent about being pro-laïcité, which in France is about as controversial as being pro-"freedom" in the USA. She's also pro-women's rights, which is also generally considered to be a good thing in Western democracies.She's consistent about being anti-Islam. She's not consistent if you're looking at it from a "Our country, our rules" point of view.
She is not pro-laicité, but anti-islam. For example, she sees nothing wrong with very conservative christian groups.
And I do not know that she is pro-women's rights at all. After all, her target audience is definitely conservative.
I guess we could ask the Femen who recently disrupted one of her meetings :-)
| 1 person marked this as a favorite. |
Interesting article (the earlier one about Lebanon). At the moment ISIS is a very useful boogeyman (although certainly one that is a real threat) for Trump and for Le Pen, which is why they consistently seem to ignore the organisation's impending collapse in Iraq and its rapidly shrinking territory in Syria. Trump even keeps saying they need to bomb the hell out of ISIS even though the USA is already doing that.
When ISIS collapses altogether and both Raqqa and Mosul are retaken, they're going to need to find a new target. I suspect it will be Iran, although Trump would do better to focus on North Korea, which actually did use a WMD in foreign territory last week and no-one in the US administration seems that bothered about it.
For those who dropped out of French class:
Laicité
French secularity (French: laïcité, [la.isite]) is a French concept of secularism.
It encourages the absence of religious involvement in government affairs, especially the prohibition of religious influence in the determination of state policies; it is also the absence of government involvement in religious affairs, especially the prohibition of government influence in the determination of religion.
Hmm, I guess the US isn't the only country wrasslin with freedom from/for religion.
| 1 person marked this as a favorite. |
For those who dropped out of French class:
Laicité
French secularity (French: laïcité, [la.isite]) is a French concept of secularism.It encourages the absence of religious involvement in government affairs, especially the prohibition of religious influence in the determination of state policies; it is also the absence of government involvement in religious affairs, especially the prohibition of government influence in the determination of religion.
Hmm, I guess the US isn't the only country wrasslin with freedom from/for religion.
I passed all 4 years of my French classes, thank you very much! I don't remember 99% of the material, but I definitely passed.
| 2 people marked this as a favorite. |
Looks like a fair amount of the youth are going for Le Pen.
Still not feeling confident about this.
| 2 people marked this as a favorite. |
Looks like a fair amount of the youth are going for Le Pen.
Still not feeling confident about this.
On the radio yesterday I heard an interview with a French "political scientist," who said that there was no possible way that a populist movement could really take hold in France, and how people weren't stupid enough to let a shooting on the Champs-Élysées change their mind about a politician.
It was then that I knew Le Pen would win. Really no question at this point.
| 1 person marked this as a favorite. |
It feels like Hydra in real life.
| 1 person marked this as a favorite. |
It feels like Hydra in real life.
Eh that kind of organization requires a lot of intellect... hmm * starts searching for the red skull*
| 1 person marked this as a favorite. |
Looks like a fair amount of the youth are going for Le Pen.
Still not feeling confident about this.
On the radio yesterday I heard an interview with a French "political scientist," who said that there was no possible way that a populist movement could really take hold in France, and how people weren't stupid enough to let a shooting on the Champs-Élysées change their mind about a politician.
It was then that I knew Le Pen would win. Really no question at this point.
"Deja vu" is doubly appropriate.