Will France be the next domino to fall?


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Being French, and living in France, I confess I'm scared by this election.

I hope neither Le Pen nor Fillon will get elected, and I guess the only hope can come from Macron.

A Le Pen/Fillon second round would be the most horrible thing for my country and those who live in it. If Macron makes it to the second round, he has good chances to win. I suspect it would be tight if he's against Fillon.


It's looking pretty solidly like Macron & LePen for the second round.

He looks like the best chance of shutting down LePen, so that's good.


Samy wrote:

What Scythia said.

First they laugh at you
then they try to fight you
then you win.

The arrogance of the establishment is what allowed these movements to flourish. They never took them seriously as contenders, and resultantly, they lost.

Arrogance begets incompetence. In a democracy, when the government makes you do stuff because they know it's good for you (all the while posting themselves exempt from the idiotic outworking of their own policies because they're rich or because they're Federal legislators), eventually the majority get tired of being spoon-fed pork rinds labeled ambrosia and vote accordingly.

Will France be the next to fall? Only in the case of an especially ill-timed Muslim terrorist attack. Say a Bataclan or Nice level event a week out from the main vote. Something like that ought to hand France over to LePen.

Liberty's Edge

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Reports suggest that the results are going to be roughly;

24% Macron
22% LePen
20% Fillon
20% Melenchon
14% Other

With both Fillon and Melenchon now urging their supporters to back Macron in the runoff two weeks from now, a LePen victory doesn't seem all that likely. I can't see many Melenchon voters going for LePen. At worst, Fillon and 'Other' supporters might split 50/50. Ergo, barring some game changing event, Macron should win comfortably... 55 / 45 split or better.

Liberty's Edge

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In 2002, Chirac won against Le Pen (the father) on the second turn of the presidential election with 80% of the votes. Because Left voters massively voted against Le Pen.

This year's results will be enlightening.

In all honesty, a few years ago, no one could even envision that the second turn would be Le Pen's Front National vs a political party that did not even exist 6 months ago.

I think Macron will win (which he likely did not even expect when he first announced that he was a candidate), but now that we have seen Trump win in the US, I have no utter certainty left.

Once the presidential elections are done, the race for the legislative elections will be an utter chaos. The winners of those have always been from the same 2 big parties (Right and Left) that have been shattered by the race for the presidential election.

I don't know how long the Right party (Les Républicains) will retain some semblance of cohesiveness after the second turn of the presidential is done.

And the Left party (Parti Socialiste) has already exploded.


CBDunkerson wrote:


With both Fillon and Melenchon now urging their supporters to back Macron in the runoff two weeks from now, a LePen victory doesn't seem all that likely. I can't see many Melenchon voters going for LePen. At worst, Fillon and 'Other' supporters might split 50/50. Ergo, barring some game changing event, Macron should win comfortably... 55 / 45 split or better.

Do you have a source from Melenchon backing Macron? From what I've seen, he's barely conceded the race and hasn't endorsed either.

Liberty's Edge

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Melenchon refused to back any candidate. He said that he will let his supporters vote on who they prefer and that the result will be made public

I find it an inexcusable fault for any true proponent of democracy not to oppose Le Pen with zero ambiguity

But Melenchon was not in this for democracy

I fear that many of his supporters will actually vote for Le Pen because they want change whatever the price

While Macron's program contains far more actually workable and profound proposals for change than either Le Pen or Melenchon


Melanchon fights Le Pen, and he did a great job.

But he can't stand Macron, and that might be a problem. I agree he should have backed Macron, but I don't think his supporters will vote for Le Pen's Front National. At worst, they won't vote, or give a blank vote, I guess.

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The Raven Black wrote:
Melenchon refused to back any candidate.

Hmmm. Reuters claimed that he was supporting Macron. They've rewritten that story since I read it yesterday just after the initial projections, but it still says;

"Conceding defeat even before figures from the count came in, rival conservative and Socialist candidates urged their supporters now to put their energies into backing Macron and stopping any chance of a second-round victory by Le Pen..."

The prior version had 'Fillon and Melenchon' rather than 'conservative and Socialist'.

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CBDunkerson wrote:
The Raven Black wrote:
Melenchon refused to back any candidate.

Hmmm. Reuters claimed that he was supporting Macron. They've rewritten that story since I read it yesterday just after the initial projections, but it still says;

"Conceding defeat even before figures from the count came in, rival conservative and Socialist candidates urged their supporters now to put their energies into backing Macron and stopping any chance of a second-round victory by Le Pen..."

The prior version had 'Fillon and Melenchon' rather than 'conservative and Socialist'.

The prior version was in error. The Socialist candidate was Hamon, not Melenchon. And Hamon indeed immediately asked his supporters to vote for Macron, as Fillon, the conservative candidate, did too. Out of the 3 big candidates who failed to reach the second turn, only Melenchon failed to do so. He was also the only one who waited as long as he could before admitting his defeat

The fact is that Main Left's Hamon and Main Right's Fillon opposed Far Right's Le Pen straight away while Far Left's Melenchon did not

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DM Lil" Eschie wrote:
Melanchon fights Le Pen, and he did a great job.

I do not see how Melenchon did a great job at fighting Le Pen. He was not the only one opposing her and I think it is a collective failure of all her opponents that they could not stop her from reaching the second turn

And I think that Melenchon's success at railing against the Establishment actually validated Le Pen since the Front National has been using this theme for decades

In other words, I feel Melenchon threw oil on the fire to ensure that Hamon and hopefully Macron would be crushed so that Melenchon's party would become the dominant political force on the Left side. And I believe he was not really concerned whether doing this actually strengthened Le Pen's case

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DM Lil" Eschie wrote:
But he can't stand Macron, and that might be a problem. I agree he should have backed Macron, but I don't think his supporters will vote for Le Pen's Front National. At worst, they won't vote, or give a blank vote, I guess.

From what I read recently it indeed seems to be the trend which is a good thing though actually voting against Le Pen is the best way any French citizen can act to stop her from becoming our next President

Actually I have far more respect for the supporters of Melenchon than I have for Melenchon himself


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A little levity: (satirical news) Le Pen on mosques under her rule

RPG Superstar 2009 Top 16

DM Lil" Eschie wrote:

Melanchon fights Le Pen, and he did a great job.

But he can't stand Macron, and that might be a problem. I agree he should have backed Macron, but I don't think his supporters will vote for Le Pen's Front National. At worst, they won't vote, or give a blank vote, I guess.

We all know how that turns out.....can we say Bernie?

Grand Lodge

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Sissyl wrote:
Oh yes. Which will mean people stop working as engineers, nurses, doctors etc to pick berries. Less hassle, less responsibility and no student debts. Sounds good.

Did you know this is happening in Cuba? I saw a VOX news segment on youtube about an engineer working in a cab because the stipends the government is giving him don't cover his living expenses. So he has to do work on the side to be able to live. Its worth a view.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-mUZRP-fpo


Mark Thomas 66 wrote:
DM Lil" Eschie wrote:

Melanchon fights Le Pen, and he did a great job.

But he can't stand Macron, and that might be a problem. I agree he should have backed Macron, but I don't think his supporters will vote for Le Pen's Front National. At worst, they won't vote, or give a blank vote, I guess.

We all know how that turns out.....can we say Bernie?

Yeah, it's a problem, though I'd say Bernie shows that even backing doesn't matter if you've spent enough time demonizing your opponent during the race.

Of course, while some things are similar, French politics are generally very different and I don't know enough to say how closely the same patterns will play out.

It still looks like LePen has a much higher polling gap to overcome than either Trump or Brexit did and almost no time left to do it in.


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thejeff wrote:
It still looks like LePen has a much higher polling gap to overcome than either Trump or Brexit did and almost no time left to do it in.

This along with the lack of an electoral college system that can hand victory to the loser gives me some hope.

Liberty's Edge

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The problem is abstention rate. If people who say they will vote Macron do not actually go and vote on Sunday, the result will be more in favor of Le Pen than what the surveys show

Le Pen's supporters are far more likely to actually go and vote than those who only see Macron as the lesser evil

We shall see on Sunday evening I guess

Whatever the end result though, the political landscape in France is already completely in shambles, on par with the upheavals experienced in UK and the US

I wonder how Germany will fare next


The Raven Black wrote:

The problem is abstention rate. If people who say they will vote Macron do not actually go and vote on Sunday, the result will be more in favor of Le Pen than what the surveys show

Le Pen's supporters are far more likely to actually go and vote than those who only see Macron as the lesser evil

We shall see on Sunday evening I guess

Like I said, I'd be very worried about that if the polls were closer. It's not hard for the polls to be a few points off for such reasons, but Macron is still way up. They've tightened a little bit since the first round, but he's still up nearly 20 points.


Being that I'm an American with a typical American public education, I don't know much about elections in European countries except for in the UK due to having friends living on that side of the pond. Is the French presidential election based on the national popular vote, or is it regionally based?


Captain Battletoad wrote:
Being that I'm an American with a typical American public education, I don't know much about elections in European countries except for in the UK due to having friends living on that side of the pond. Is the French presidential election based on the national popular vote, or is it regionally based?

Direct popular vote. No weird shenanigans (other than the multi-round thing.)


thejeff wrote:
Captain Battletoad wrote:
Being that I'm an American with a typical American public education, I don't know much about elections in European countries except for in the UK due to having friends living on that side of the pond. Is the French presidential election based on the national popular vote, or is it regionally based?
Direct popular vote. No weird shenanigans (other than the multi-round thing.)

Interesting. So not knowing the general attitude of the average French voter, how much support does a Frexit move have, particularly given Macron's recent statements on the matter? Sorry if these are basic questions. I'm starting to learn French again to stem a tide of boredom and figured it would make it easier if I also learned more about modern France, in addition to generally being concerned about the current state of Europe.

Sovereign Court

I can't speak about everyone, but the atmosphere at work and around is downright ugly.

Many more support Le Pen than there used to be, and the ones saying they will vote Macron, mostly describe him as a cheap thief in a suit.

Odds are still Macron will win, now the Parliament election next will be hard for him.

Liberty's Edge

In other words ...VIVE LA REPUBLIQUE !!!

Liberty's Edge

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The one and only debate between the two candidates has just ended. The keyword is virulent

Whatever the result there are already a lot of very angry people in France and we will need strong and enduring economical recovery to heal the divides

No one can predict what will happen in the coming weeks, much less the coming years

Project Manager

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SheepishEidolon wrote:
Perhaps the Western world needs this experience: One, two or three big countries retreating to the past, just to fail horribly.

I think the people who suffer and die when countries "retreat into the past" (I'm not in favor of using euphemisms for fascism, so let's call it what it is) would object to the idea that their deaths are some sort of necessary teaching experience for others.


I wonder if that's an idea born from the concept of "God's plan", where he allows bad things to happen to good people in some sort of grand scheme, but mysteriously everything will turn out fine in the end.

It kind of creates this sense that it's okay to allow bad things to happen if the survivors can find something to enjoy afterwards.

Not super well thought out (my explanation), just something that occurred to me just now.


@Irontruth: I don't want to sidetrack this thread with a religious debate, so... I'll just say that I think that's probably not the case.

Liberty's Edge

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On Sunday, I will use the best, one and only weapon I have to lay low the hydra once again : my vote. Just as I did 15 years ago against Le Pen's father

And if there is even the slimmest chance that an hesitant French citizen reads this, I will reiterate my position on not voting :

Not voting means giving the power of decision for things that will affect your life in the capable hands of those who will vote.
It is up to you to decide if you're ok with that.

I know many French people have argued that they do not want Macron to get too high of a result and thus will not vote for him nor for Le Pen. If this strategy of weakening Macron 's score ends up in Le Pen getting elected, its proponents will feel that they were the biggest fools but it will be too late

Wanting to show to the Establishment that they should listen to people is how we got Brexit and Trump. Because people could not believe the established candidate would lose until they actually did

We are lucky in France to have the Legislative elections coming very soon after the Presidential one. If you want to make your voice heard in dissent with Macron, then vote for your preferred party at that time

But coming Sunday, vote


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Captain Battletoad wrote:
thejeff wrote:
Captain Battletoad wrote:
Being that I'm an American with a typical American public education, I don't know much about elections in European countries except for in the UK due to having friends living on that side of the pond. Is the French presidential election based on the national popular vote, or is it regionally based?
Direct popular vote. No weird shenanigans (other than the multi-round thing.)
Interesting. So not knowing the general attitude of the average French voter, how much support does a Frexit move have, particularly given Macron's recent statements on the matter? Sorry if these are basic questions. I'm starting to learn French again to stem a tide of boredom and figured it would make it easier if I also learned more about modern France, in addition to generally being concerned about the current state of Europe.

On a recent poll, 70 % of french voters were against going back to the old french money.

Frexit is worse than that, as it implies more than a change of currency. So, barring misunderstanding of the question, dubious logic or sheer ignorance, Frexit supporters must be even less numerous than 30 %.

Liberty's Edge

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Even Le Pen considerably softened her stance about FREXIT last evening during the second turn debate. She now wishes to have both French Franc and euro existing side by side and no more talk about leaving the EU asap

Anglophone media are seen in France as having given disproportionate weight to the possibility of a FREXIT, maybe to show that the BREXIT was not such a bad idea after all

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Just heard that Obama officially and strongly supports Macron. That is just great :-)


Let's see what trap card russia has to play on this one...


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BigNorseWolf wrote:
Let's see what trap card russia has to play on this one...

There are reports of attempted hacking and the usual propaganda campaigns. Nothing huge though and it's really too late to have much effect - you really need a couple weeks for most such things to work.

And isn't the proper term "trump card"?


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thejeff wrote:


And isn't the proper term "trump card"?

... i will be kicking myself all day for missing that potential pun.

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thejeff wrote:
BigNorseWolf wrote:
Let's see what trap card russia has to play on this one...
There are reports of attempted hacking and the usual propaganda campaigns. Nothing huge though and it's really too late to have much effect - you really need a couple weeks for most such things to work.

We should also remember that one month ago it was not needed since Trump was obviously on Putin's side for good.

Having a pro-russia candidate such as Fillon, Le Pen or Melenchon become French President was merely an added bonus but nothing of any strategic value

Then the attack on the Syrian airbase happened and the world changed but by then it was too late to invest the money, manpower and sheer time needed to have a big influence on the French election

What thejeff mentioned above seems to be the best that could be managed under such short notice

Which also means we have noone else to blame but ourselves for Le Pen's success at reaching the second turn

I now wonder whether all this time, money and effort will be aimed at influencing the Legislative elections next month


The Raven Black wrote:
thejeff wrote:
BigNorseWolf wrote:
Let's see what trap card russia has to play on this one...
There are reports of attempted hacking and the usual propaganda campaigns. Nothing huge though and it's really too late to have much effect - you really need a couple weeks for most such things to work.

We should also remember that one month ago it was not needed since Trump was obviously on Putin's side for good.

Having a pro-russia candidate such as Fillon, Le Pen or Melenchon become French President was merely an added bonus but nothing of any strategic value

Then the attack on the Syrian airbase happened and the world changed but by then it was too late to invest the money, manpower and sheer time needed to have a big influence on the French election

What thejeff mentioned above seems to be the best that could be managed under such short notice

Which also means we have noone else to blame but ourselves for Le Pen's success at reaching the second turn

I now wonder whether all this time, money and effort will be aimed at influencing the Legislative elections next month

Somewhat off-topic, but I'm not at all convinced "the world changed".

Whether it did or not, Putin's efforts weren't based on whether Trump was obviously on Putin's side. He knew the situation and knew what kind of hold he had. If he didn't have a strong one, disrupting France is still a good plan. Even if he did, I'm not sure why another disruption wouldn't be in his interests.

It may be that he just wasn't able to get the kind of material needed - or that the gap is bigger than he thinks could be overcome and it's not worth showing his hand.

Liberty's Edge

Comrades, Comradesses !

Get your tickets now !
The lottery says who will be next comrade-president.
Not having a ticket, means you are a Traitor to the State. tm

All traitors will meet Sharp Jenny !

So get a ticket, comrade ! The Revolution tm wants it !


Bon chance.

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Merci :-)


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BigNorseWolf wrote:
Let's see what trap card russia has to play on this one...

Well, there it is. We'll see what effect it has.

Macron's condemned it and claimed fake emails are mixed in with the legitimately hacked ones. There's a ban on last minute campaigning, so he can't really do anything else to defend himself.


The Raven Black wrote:
Just heard that Obama officially and strongly supports Macron. That is just great :-)

I doubt the "far-left" voters who voted for Mélenchon and are expected to vote for Macron share your opinion.

In other words, if someone's not a neoliberal, but is a "far-leftist", endorsement by the past king of neoliberals is not attractive.


thejeff wrote:
BigNorseWolf wrote:
Let's see what trap card russia has to play on this one...

Well, there it is. We'll see what effect it has.

Macron's condemned it and claimed fake emails are mixed in with the legitimately hacked ones. There's a ban on last minute campaigning, so he can't really do anything else to defend himself.

Ho my God ! the Commies are at it again !

The Empire of Evil is trying to sabotage elections all over the world !

...

Sorry. I couldn't help myself. I'm without breath for having laughed so hard over my keyboard.


Quiche Lisp wrote:
thejeff wrote:
BigNorseWolf wrote:
Let's see what trap card russia has to play on this one...

Well, there it is. We'll see what effect it has.

Macron's condemned it and claimed fake emails are mixed in with the legitimately hacked ones. There's a ban on last minute campaigning, so he can't really do anything else to defend himself.

Ho my God ! the Commies are at it again !

The Empire of Evil is trying to sabotage elections all over the world !

...

Sorry. I couldn't help myself. I'm without breath for having laughed so hard over my keyboard.

Well, Putin's not a communist, but yes, they are trying to do that. We could argue about how effective they've been, but they're definitely trying.

To be fair, it's early stages for this particular incident so it can't definitely be linked to Russia yet, but they're the likely suspect.


I don't buy the narrative that Putin tried to disrupt the last american presidential election.

Being unconvinced of that, I remain unconvinced that he's trying to disrupt the present french election.

Why would he try to sabotage this election now ? Why did he not try to sabotage the previous french and american elections ?

Anyway, my scepticism has more to do with the difficulty to conclusively prove anything regarding cyberspace.

[I salute your even-handedness regarding my mischevious mood. Those political discussions can get so heated, sometimes.]


thejeff wrote:


To be fair, it's early stages for this particular incident so it can't definitely be linked to Russia yet, but they're the likely suspect.

Oh come on. We knew this was russia before they did it. I called it yesterday. YOU made a joke about it. (still kicking myself btw)

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